Guncotton: Why Europe needs China of all countries for more ammunition
A cotton field in Xinjiang.
There are many different perspectives on the war in Ukraine. However, almost all experts agree on one point:
Ukraine urgently needs more ammunition for its defense. While aid from the USA is currently uncertain due to the election campaign, Europe wants to supply – and is even building new production facilities to do so.
In addition to ammunition factories, however, there is also a lack of the necessary
raw material for ammunition, commonly known as
guncotton. The problem is that
Europe is largely dependent on China, which is so closely allied with Russia.
European manufacturers import an indispensable component for ammunition from the People’s Republic –
cellulose nitrate, also known colloquially as nitrocellulose or guncotton – or its precursor, linter cotton.
70 percent of guncotton comes from China
Linters are cotton fibers that are too short to be spun.
The website of the German armaments company Rheinmetallstates: “For military requirements, a
uniformly nitrified nitrocellulose made from bleached linters is used or, alternatively, blends of two to three different nitrified nitrocellulose types.”
However, Europe only has a very small cotton industry – in contrast to the USA. The EU therefore has to buy from abroad.
Europe imports around 70 percent of these fibers from China, Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger recently admitted
in the British newspaper “Financial Times”. He fears that
China could stop the supply of liners at any time for political reasons.
This is not a completely absurd idea. Time and again,
China uses its trading power to achieve political goals. Sometimes certain products are no longer exported, sometimes they are simply no longer imported. Countries such as South Korea, Japan, but also Lithuania and France can report on such processes.
Three projects could be put to the test
The German government has also recognized the risk of potential restrictions and has clearly stated this in its China strategy. The solution: de-risking. But now a kind of multiple staircase joke of history is looming.
Because in order to solve the ammunition problem quickly, the West must abandon three of its plans vis-à-vis China – at least temporarily.
- Politics: The West is actually urging China to stay out of the war as a partner of the Russian aggressor. However, it is now dependent on China becoming more involved – and keeping the European arms industry running through its deliveries.
- Economy: Actually, the West – especially Germany with its own China strategy – no longer wants to buy so much and so unilaterally from China. But now they urgently need the raw materials for ammunition.
- Human rights: The West actually wants to avoid Chinese products from the province of Xinjiang, as it is difficult to check whether they have been produced with the help of forced labor. However, a large proportion of Chinese guncotton comes from Xinjiang.
No time for de-risking
But de-risking is a process that takes time. Something that Europe does not have in the case of the missing ammunition. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell described the situation as “dramatic”. Ukraine is running out of ammunition on the front line, especially artillery shells, warned Borrell. And the EU could not deliver anywhere near the quantities of ammunition it had promised.
The plan is now to increase
production of the most important NATO artillery calibers to 1.5 million units per year by the end of 2024.
Ammunition factories are to be built quickly to achieve this. Chancellor Olaf Scholz took over the ground-breaking ceremony for a Rheinmetall factory in Lower Saxony, while Minister Robert Habeck is looking into shorter approval procedures. But all this doesn’t just take time. It also requires the necessary raw materials from China.
Risk of uncertain deliveries from China
And according to Papperger, there is a risk of problems if Beijing decides it no longer wants to supply. “That is the reason why we
are currently buying as much as possible to fill our warehouses“, the Rheinmetall boss told the FT. So far, the deliveries from China have arrived. “But the point is that Europe should be independent in the long term”, warned the Rheinmetall boss.
Supply problems are already being complained about elsewhere.
EU Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton, for example, reported initial import problems. The supply of cotton linters from China was stopped “a few months ago as if by chance”, said Breton. In mid-August, Beijing also placed the
metal antimony, which is frequently used in ammunition and other military applications, under export controls, similar to those for the
metals gallium and germanium, for which Chinese exporters have had to apply for licenses since then.
Chinese experts concede
in the Hong Kong newspaper South China Morning Post that
China certainly has scope to reduce exports of nitrocellulose for geopolitical reasons – but immediately add that the leadership in Beijing will not use this as a means of exerting pressure.
Problem case Xinjiang
EU Internal Market Commissioner Breton sums up the current situation in sobering terms: “To produce the powder, we need a special type of cotton, and most of it comes from China.” But from where in China? This is where the next problem lies.
Almost 90 percent of Chinese cotton comes from the province of Xinjiang, where the Muslim Uyghur minority is oppressed.
Adrian Zenz has become famous for his Xinjiang research. He once uncovered the extensive Chinese camp system in the region. Now the scientist from the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation in Washington warns that
hundreds of thousands of Uyghurs are being forced to work in Xinjiang’s cotton industry.
In the fight against forced labor, the West is trying to ensure that such goods are no longer sold in Europe or the USA by means of corresponding supply chain laws. And so Europe is faced with a political and an economic dilemma, as well as a moral one: Chinese linter cotton is needed to quickly produce ammunition for Ukraine.
However, it is almost inevitable that nitrocellulose produced in China will ultimately be supplied from Xinjiang.
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