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The buzz of “overmatch” contradicts that…You don't evaluate your cartridge based on someone else's cartridge for small arms.
Overmatch is a thing with some weapon systems. This was the argument we used when scoping the PSR requirement after the Seals proposed the ONS. I was just a lowly SFC then helping draft the requirements document as a Sniper SME. We pointed at all of our European partners that had been rocking 338L's for years.The buzz of “overmatch” contradicts that…
Lots of Schatz PowerPoints on that
Not saying I disagree with you but it’s a thing…or was at least
Was more making light of that old presentation of 54R vs 51….and all that stuff that was not all that accurateOvermatch is a thing with some weapon systems. This was the argument we used when scoping the PSR requirement after the Seals proposed the ONS. I was just a lowly SFC then helping draft the requirements document as a Sniper SME. We pointed at all of our European partners that had been rocking 338L's for years.
That's why I specified small arms. This particular weapon and ammo is focused on opponents body armor, not trying to out-reach them.
The Chinese spent $1.85 billion for 1.4 million SAPI-equivalent hard plate sets to outfit the People's Liberation Army and People's Armed Police with fielding starting in 2025.Do the Chinese (or whoever has the baddest armor we want to poke) have enough of the plates to warrant significant fielding? What warrants us to commit to the change? Mere existence….limited experimentation…a percentage of general issue?
Are they assuming they’ll be facing every body with an M7 and x sapi (or whatever’s the baddest plate now) on our end?
It wasn't meant as preaching at all. If it came across that way, I'm sorry.Terry, You don't have to preach to me what combat is like.
"To what?" The next platform after the M4. It's going to happen one day, isn't it? Or no? Never? We're going to use the M4/M855 for the next 200 years, yeah? Is that what you guys are saying?
How do you know the M4 isn't underperforming?It wasn't meant as preaching at all. If it came across that way, I'm sorry.
It was meant as a Red Team angle of debating this topic.
I'm not trying to predict anything at all about M4s and M855. The M4 has certainly evolved for the better and the ammo has evolved past M855 as well. Who knows what tomorrow will bring.
My stance is that of course we should constantly review our gear and our TTPs with realistic expectations. If anything is truly underperforming, then it should be addressed whether it is fighter aircraft or cold weather socks.
What I AM saying is that we shouldn't field an entirely new program just for the sake of chasing a pseudo goal. Double shame on us when the new program is already exhibiting several mechanical points of failure, is less controllable and adds too much weight to each man's load while simultaneously reducing the number of rounds each man can carry. Don't forget that out of necessity, the program has to include building a completely new logistics chain at a crazy amount of $.
Could we literally get more bang for our buck by focusing that time and energy on something else?
I certainly don't have any sway on the direction of any of those programs but it is entertaining to discuss the pros and cons.
Some of the greatest military minds in the world, right here on Snipers Hide. If you unleashed these guys from their jobs at the dealership or back accounting office at the hardware store, they would change the world. Or maybe it's just an online E4 mafia.DoD: "The GWOT is over! The era of Great Power Competition and Major Regional Contingencies is back!"
Also DoD: "You know what would be awesome? Adopting a rifle that isn't compatible with Allied supply systems."
I know what serious looks like, and this ain't it.
-Stan
I don't.How do you know the M4 isn't underperforming?
A goal that is targeting a problem that is framed in such a way as to justify a new weapons program.What is the pseudo goal?
Killing and breaking shit.What should the goal be?
100% agree.Believe it or not, it probably takes knowing some facts to make decisions or pass judgement.
To be clear, I am not indicting Sig. They are merely trying to respond to and deliver on what the DoD nerds are requesting.I'm not defending the SIG itself.
Innovating = change. Change does not necessarily equate to better results in reality.Or even the Army's decision to innovate.
Super duper cool.Because whether I'm defending DODs decision to innovate or not, it's going to happen. I see what's happening inside the force and then I see yester-years thought process on this thread. There's a huge gap in understanding the environment here and I'm trying to coach you all into seeing the future.
Which is exactly why the fleeting time and limited money should be carefully focused on the most efficient path to improved lethality.This current pause is seen as a critical time to prepare.
If you think most of us are putting our heads in the sand and trying to ignore reality, you are reading the room completely fucking wrong. You seem to be jumping to that conclusion simply because there are points of debate that counter your own views and perceptions.You can look across the globe and see competitive enemy states consolidating, prepping the environment, maneuvering themselves into positions of advantage under the threshold of all out acts of war. There's a sense in the air that putting your head in the sand right now would be fatal. This is why I think this program is gaining traction. I don't look at the scale of it's implementation as a sign that we're 100% adopting it, especially the current version, so I don't feel like I need to yell chicken little over the issues the gun is having right now. I see it as an expensive experiment. I could be wrong; have been before. I thought when people decided to put ATRAG and AB into the Kestrel it would be dumb as fuck. "How are you going to be able to enter and configure all that information that we were doing on PDAs on that tiny little screen with 5 buttons? That's going to be miserable." Well, apparently it worked out great, lol. So who knows... We all get to watch and see.
It’s an undefinable parameter. Something will always “underperform” at something, and that something is subjective to whoever is “examining” said equipment and roles.What is "underperforming" anyway?
1911 still going strong along with M2 50 cal and B52How long should we continue to use M4s and the 5.56? The next 20yrs? 50? 100? Okay, then what? At some point you evolve or get left behind. Can we agree on that?
You tell me. I'm using your words from post #257I don't.
What is "underperforming" anyway?
Is that the actual goal of the program, or just your way to demonize it?A goal that is targeting a problem that is framed in such a way as to justify a new weapons program.
Great answer. Basically you don't have a fact based objective. By definition an E tool will accomplish your goal.Killing and breaking shit.
Do better at what? See what I mean? There are metrics and planning factors that this all has to be judged against. All generated from an operational needs and threat assessment. And you have to know what they are to understand if the aging M4 and EPR is "underperforming". And if the program is needed or just self licking.If it can't do that better than the current system, shitcan it.
Correct, that's why they are two different words in the English language and have two different definitions. Change does not equal Innovation. But It is fair to say that a lot of people fuck up innovation. I have a love-hate relationship with the current idea of innovation in the military. Over the last 4 years our organization has been encouraging "innovation" at all levels. Anything goes. Any object, process, or tactic can be thrown out the window and reinvented using Bro-Science just to demonstrate innovation. Drove me crazy. The force is very young right now. People with less than 10 years in service still need to learn their jobs. Which means they need to learn doctrine or unit SOPs. They need to learn the basics and the things that the people that came before them knew. AFTER you demonstrate mastery of the basics, you perform sets and reps. You gain experience doing the basics. Then you perform them in multiple deployments and environments. So you have perspective and wisdom that allows you to synthesize as a part of critical thinking. You see shortcomings and strengths, come to know constraints and limiting factors. THEN you are ready to innovate. When you arrive in a new theater and asses the operational environment, pull from your playbook the normal tactics and SOPs, you adapt them to compensate for a shortcomings or get around a constraint. Or gain an advantage. It is specific, timed, and with a specific goal in mind. You don't need to innovate react to contact, squad attack, or break contact. Those are the basics. Just do them well and innovate an overall scheme of maneuver to fit a specific objective.Innovating = change. Change does not necessarily equate to better results in reality.
Nope. I got to that conclusion by all the comments saying we should stick with the M4 and just supe' up 556. Or that a rifleman's rifle doesn't matter in modern combat so what's the point. Or even the fence riders that think 6mm and ICAR is the answer. That's what the room said. That's why I asked the question that no one seems comfortable answering. Are we just going to stick with the M4 for the next 100-200 years? Really? At some point we have to develop a new rifle. At some point. And there's probably going to be experimentation involved which means failures and iterative generations. Have some combat patience; don't get all tied up in a knot over it. Calm breeds calm.If you think most of us are putting our heads in the sand and trying to ignore reality, you are reading the room completely fucking wrong. You seem to be jumping to that conclusion simply because there are points of debate that counter your own views and perceptions.
For sure. But they can both happen at the same time. Doesn't have to be mutually exclusive.I literally think that the mindset and leadership change is going to have a bigger impact on our effectiveness and lethality than any small arms program.
Like?... for deer hunting?With that… is the m4 sufficient? Are the added capabilities of the xm7 necessary? Do these added capabilities bring with them downsides (length, weight, bulk, limited ammo capacity, reliability, etc) that out-weight the benefits?
Like?... for deer hunting?
How is the 1911 still going strong? Riddle me that. Where? With whom?1911 still going strong along with M2 50 cal and B52
Or dangerous(lazy, same same) leadership that FAILED to teach their subordinates how to do it correctly BEFORE shit hit the fan?dangerous headspace and gauge procedure,
Ideally, sure. But headspace'ing the barrels that way was an output of manufacturing when the M2 was designed. We can do better than that these days. It's just unnecessary. And the proof is in the pudding. Because we did.Or dangerous(lazy, same same) leadership that FAILED to teach their subordinates how to do it correctly BEFORE shit hit the fan?
I don’t think there is any real incentive for buy-in across NATO and Pacific allies to switch the basic small arms cartridge right now, given how volatile everything is.the more I really dig into this, the more I think we'll eventually see a 6 ARC or 6mm MAX adoption, and a push to rebarrel existing 5.56 platforms across NATO.
6mm MAX has the added advantage of still working with M27 links, so you don't have to re-design any of the squad-level MGs, which makes it an attractive option economically.
hard to say where things will go. the soft armor defeat at distance is still a real thing that needs to be considered, but it's likely that might be doable with an EPR 6mm using a better core material than steel
This shows you are digesting anything I type as me demonizing the program., or just your way to demonize it?
They’ve already had Russians surrendering to ground robots while aerial drones over-watched.It actually makes sense that we should at least entertain such thinking. Most of the small arms fighting would be at ranges from urban/trench CQB to medium range. Anything at distance falls into DMR and sniper weapons with different ammo needs.
>90% of future war casualties will be from drones and precision strike munitions anyway.
Major players are super close to fielding ground robots. Imagine that shit show. Battlefield saturated with drones and robots. If they don't get you, you will likely die of cancer from being slow cooked in the 24/7 flood of electromagnetic energy being dumped into the area for jamming, spoofing and sensing.
The factories cranking-out PGMs, loitering munition UAS, and Kamikazee drones are only increasing in order and production volume.Yes.
Once the satellite guided precision munitions are expended.
Once the 5th and 6th Gen aircraft are exhausted.
Once the drones and robots are countered and depleted.
Once the heavy armor and air assault and CAS are no more,
it will still devolve to man versus man in a trench, on the battlefield and on the beach head.
Of course my opinion is framed in the context of an all out / for real war.
A war that directly threatens our existence. Not some war that we electively inserted ourselves into that we can withdraw from when it is inconvenient or too costly in lives and equipment.
In that type of war, if everything devolves into a bloody slugfest on the front lines where one of the major players starts to panic for fear of defeat and loss of their homeland. . . . . . That is where some will panic and consider the option of going nuclear as viable.
We need to have the forethought ( I know. We suck at it.) and planning to minimize the chance of us getting into that situation where our back is against the wall.
You could take 4 of us from this thread and make a dramatically-superior NGSW submission plus a superior DM carbine than anything that has been submitted to DoD in generations.Some of the greatest military minds in the world, right here on Snipers Hide. If you unleashed these guys from their jobs at the dealership or back accounting office at the hardware store, they would change the world. Or maybe it's just an online E4 mafia.
You can take 4 from this thread and talk about submitting dramatically-superior NGSW.You could take 4 of us from this thread and make a dramatically-superior NGSW submission plus a superior DM carbine than anything that has been submitted to DoD in generations.
Right on.Weirdly, creativity thrives when there are restraints. Often creativity stalls when all worlds are possible.
Hypothesize the problem with a very small team. Frame it. Realize you can’t boil the ocean.
Who you choose for the team is extremely important. They better be good, and aren’t the type that says “No” when faced with a new idea. Riffing types of people are key. Give them a lot of autonomy.
Consider capping their budget. Restraints & creativity, again. Later, consider uncapping it if an idea has merit.
But don’t tell the team that beforehand.
Then (or concurrently) go research the current state state of the world and think about the future state.
Get in the mindset that everything is a prototype. Everything. And use a very small team of very talented people to brainstorm and try things, over and over.
Test your solution in the real world, quickly, often, and in sample sizes that give you confidence in the data. Increase the sample sizes as your team gets more confident in the prototype idea.
Scaling too quickly is like turning up the heat in the oven to 600° so you can bake the cake faster.
My 2¢
Yeah. You get it.Right on.
Best talent with freedom of movement within the problem solving realm. Have that throttled by having to meet/exceed real-world thresholds. Ideally land a workable solution that also has room for future growth built into the basic architecture.
At least 2 of the 4 have already executed, not just talkers.You can take 4 from this thread and talk about submitting dramatically-superior NGSW.
But executing, not even close.
Nah, this is just your avoidance of debating on merit. You have plenty of opportunity to debate pros and cons. You just need to present facts.This shows you are digesting anything I type as me demonizing the program.
Attempting to debate pros and cons has somehow morphed into demonizing?
You are simply shutting down any dissent to your view.
That's cool.
Carry on.
Uh huh, sure. Everyone talks a big game until they're in a position of responsibility.You could take 4 of us from this thread and make a dramatically-superior NGSW submission plus a superior DM carbine than anything that has been submitted to DoD in generations.
As a completely outside observer of this conversation, it seems to me that you are awfully sensitive and defensive about this, in addition to your hubris on the subject. If I didn’t know any better, and I don’t, I’d think that you are integrally involved in the XM7 project and feel attacked.Nah, this is just your avoidance of debating on merit. You have plenty of opportunity to debate pros and cons. You just need to present facts.
How much time did Theis spend in DoD aerospace developmental programs or as an 11B? Didn’t Theis scam a bunch of people out of thousands of dollars on this site? Not seeing any parallels with him.Uh huh, sure. Everyone talks a big game until they're in a position of responsibility.
You know who you remind me of? Theis.
You know what boggles me about you and why I said that? Who the fuck has a day job and can post all these long ass dissertations complete with 1980's Soldier of Fortune pictures in 30 mins?! That is a developed skill that takes dedication. Does that sound like someone working their ass off in real job?How much time did Theis spend in DoD aerospace developmental programs or as an 11B? Didn’t Theis scam a bunch of people out of thousands of dollars on this site? Not seeing any parallels with him.
I don’t expect dismounted soldiers to understand the vast majority of the force structure or much of the technologies involved in systems they’ll never have their hand on, as it isn’t necessary. None of the Army officer corps, outside of Aviation and Air Defense, are keen to most of the big picture and the technologies involved.
Same way I don’t expect a guy on a carrier maintaining catapults to understand the metallurgy in turbofan high pressure blades, or the infinitesimally-small microprocessors on a modern chip, or thermal efficiency of an advanced semiconductor used in sensors.
But small arms are at a place where some of the aerospace tech can trickle down and better integrate the enablers.
The AR-10 and AR-15 already came from aerospace materials science for the frame and weight-savings, using aircraft-grade aluminum and a gas tube that looks a lot like hydraulic lines. I’ve always suspected Stoner and Fairchild used those because of their aerospace backgrounds. Stoner was an aviation ordnance guy in the Marines during the War, then a machinist for the Whittaker aircraft company making valve and hose-fittings after WWII.
Fairchild was of course an aircraft company with lots of experience with metallurgy, high-grade aluminum, and stringent specifications for products that had to adhere to DoD specs. Small Arms wasn’t their focus though, so they sold the patents to Colt.
Dafuq is that? Never heard of herWho the fuck has a day job
I haven’t been on a W-2 in many, many years. I’ve also been working on the problem set that NGSW aims to address since 2005, after what I saw with Land Warrior and basically smashing mega-geek aerospace thinking with mega-grunt cave man understandings about how small arms and aiming/illumination systems are actually used in a variety of environments.You know what boggles me about you and why I said that? Who the fuck has a day job and can post all these long ass dissertations complete with 1980's Soldier of Fortune pictures in 30 mins?! That is a developed skill that takes dedication. Does that sound like someone working their ass off in real job?
You are completely unmatched in your diatribes on this forum.
< bong hit smoke exhale >The whole reason I logged-on today was to post in the Investor forum
I just marvel at the amount of hubris and ignorance that goes on in this thread. Most of the time I try to avoid it but every once in a while I become weak and have to say something. And I really shouldn't because this thread absolutely doesn't matter. No one here (more than likely) has any impact on this program. So why not just let the angry old white men who are really just acting out their distrust of the government have their sewing circle, right? This program is going to happen regardless of what some Joe-blow the plumber thinks. But it's just amazing to me how insanely confident some people are in their opinions and assertions. It's compulsive, but I have to pick at those people. Why are they so confident? What do they know? Sometimes you run across people that have good reason to be so confident. And sometimes it's like watching a train wreck. The fascinating amount of self delusion is hard to not watch with awe.
I have zero to do with any big army program. In fact, next year I'll be a civilian. I have no more military responsibilities. It's all medical appointments, college classes, and transitioning. But I do have a perspective into Army culture and having served with other senior leaders so I do understand the other side and how they make decisions. So, sometimes you get to see a thing with an insiders vantage point, and then you see how it plays out in the information space. And it's amazing how people misunderstand and run away with it. It's really hard not to just insert a few realities here and there when you're a part of this forum. And it never ceases to amaze me how people react to them. You could have a dude with all the credentials and experience, and some "shotgun news" waving, white New Balance, gun show goblin will try to preach to him about combat or how CQB should be done. It's kind of hilarious and also sad.
If I told you that we are so incredibly vulnerable to information manipulation, that some people can't tell the difference between reality and misinformation, what would you say? And then what implication on this discussion would your answer have?
Thread-swerve: Take any money you’re spending on beer, dip, cigarettes, peyote, weed, coffee, whatever you’re addicted to, and put it into investments.< bong hit smoke exhale >
Where is this forum?
peyote is expensive man
The M24 will still do the job today that it was designed for. It was fairly durable, very reliable, and just dead simple. It could have done with the M24A2 upgrade in the mid-90's. Suppressor, DBM, and 300WM barrel (a long with the INOD upgrade), but it still wouldn't be a switch barrel 338, would it? And it never could. We had to develop something new to get there. See why my perspective is what it is?I remember that (I kept tabs on each year’s International and SF Sniper Competitions), and heard similar details about PSR FUBAR from other guys in this very thread who had close proximity or inside FOV. The one that stood out more to me was the Team who won using 7mm SAUM AR-10s back in the early-mid 2000s if I recall.
I had already been shooting .338 LM regularly with the Finns since 2005 and a US competitor for PSR who already had a switch-barrel/caliber system in 2008. I first met them at 2008 SHOT. I was a regular attendee or helping booths with several companies at SHOT from 2008-2019.
I was sure SF would get their .338 LM PSR sniper system, but then the Navy insisted .300 Win Mag was fine with a new bullet and jamming more powder into the case. I also knew Federal engineers who explained what the throat/barrel life was when doing that, with some throats eroding unacceptably within 100rds in a tighter firing schedule.
I grew up with the M21 and M24, but we used the M24 for pretty much all of our Sniper Sustainment training in 3 different Scout Sniper Platoons. M21 was being used at Benning for stalks still. M24 was great for flat range, KD, some UKD, but not something I ever saw as a good solution for going outside the wire with, at least for Battalion Recon Platoon Sniper Sections. I know plenty who did it in early days of GWOT with the PVS-10 mounted on top, but their ability to shoot and move was extremely limited, and almost totally-reliant on Team members to protect them.
I’ve also seen .338 LM do fine at sea level conditions out to ELR, or high humidity arctic and summer conditions in Finland, as well as high altitude in the mountains here in CO, UT, and ID. The Finns were testing GS Customs monoliths for armor defeat as well. We shot deep into APC armor at 500m at one of their ranges on a day when doing practical wind-reading and range estimation exercises. That solid bullet was brutal on armor defeat without even using any type of tungsten penetrator.
I think with PSR, there were way too many cooks in the kitchen, and some of them didn’t even know how to cook, even with a much longer Sniper school in their community. They never placed in SF Sniper Competition either, never even broke over 50% in the past 21 years. Foreign teams, other services (USMC, National Guard) have won and/or placed regularly.