Bored and curious; whats your hit rate on this scenario

[TheGerman]

Pretty straightforward. Your ballistic info is known.

1280 yards
6.5Creedmoor
Prone off dirt with just a bipod/rear bag
18 inch plate
5-10mph wind
No spotter for corrections
1st round is coldbore
Low light; sun is down but still ambient light
You are not timed, but you can't screw around too long to get set up, etc. Basically, on target, fire, follow through, see the hit/splash,run the bolt, on target, fire, etc.

Realistically, on average, how many hits would you regularly be able to get from a magazine of 5 rounds? Not the 'one time I hit something at 260000 yards' but if you had to do this, right now.

 

[BurnOut]

I so rarely get to practice beyond 100 yards that I really couldn't say. Honestly, I've spent FAR more time shooting/shooting at prairie dogs from probably 75-450-ish than I have engaging ANYTHING at 750+.

So, in my case, likely 0 hits in the scenario you've provided.

 

[Sheldon N]

5 to 10mph wind can mean a lot of things. If it's a dead steady 9mph that's fairly easy... make correction and the next 4 go in the same place. If it's 5 then 8 then 5 then 9 all in 25 seconds you're pretty much screwed.

 

[Dthomas3523]

I use Tubb absolute 2 hole ammo and get 10.

 

[TheGerman]

I use Tubb absolute 2 hole ammo and get 10.

I had to google what that even was lol

 

[Huskydriver]

2-3 I think is realistic...obviously your ability to pick up on the subtle wind shift will bend that average closer to 3 or 4... coldbore I am probably 30% 1st round hit at that distance honestly but am probably within .5 mil of the target.

 

[_Windrider_]

How many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie roll lollipop?

Who the fuck knows until you do it.

 

[Dthomas3523]

I had to google what that even was lol

Is the top of your head still attached?

 

[Ledzep]

Wind variability is the kicker here. Steady wind, 3-4 (maybe 5 if the stars line up). Choppy, 0-2 most likely.

 

[TheGerman]

View attachment 7001856

Quiet you.

 

[Dirty D]

Bender, the answer is Bender.

 

[hic28]

I voted 4 out of 5. One of my 2/3 ipsc plates is at 1233 and I’ve nailed it cold bore with my .308 (pictured). The 6.5cm is even easier. Since it’s across a canyon I’ve had winds from dead calm to 30+mph

When I back up to a mile it gets a bit more interesting with a second canyon involved.

Just like Sheldon said, wind is key, If it’s steady, just make an initial call and correct from there.

 

[TheGerman]

I voted 4 out of 5. One of my 2/3 ipsc plates is at 1233 and I’ve nailed it cold bore with my .308 (pictured). The 6.5cm is even easier. Since it’s across a canyon I’ve had winds from dead calm to 30+mph

When I back up to a mile it gets a bit more interesting with a second canyon involved.

Just like Sheldon said, wind is key, If it’s steady, just make an initial call and correct from there.



View attachment 7001894

View attachment 7001895

I'm shooting the 40% IPSC.

Figured I'd ask and see what came up. I went 2x5 rounds in the mag and went 4/5 on both. Was the first day on this target as I rucked the cut down T post, T post pounder and plate out there, marked it via GPS with my Trimble and jogged back, verified everything and went to work.

I have to say, the Magnetospeed hit indicator saved me, especially since the light was also gone.

Both misses were high in basically the same area; I'm blaming the rear bag that was too high on one orientation and not high enough on the other.

 

[Subwrx300]

2 for me:

First Shot: I'd forget to dial and wonder why I couldn't see splash.
Second Shot: Same with as first... then I'd remember...
Third shot: basically a sighter but I might get lucky
Fourth and Fifth: Ray Charles Special --- one in the left eye and one in the right --- for SURE!

**"Except on Sundays, in which case, I'd accidentally load 4 rounds and think I shot 5. Then target would only be a pissed off pirate! ***

I shouldn't be awake at 2:30am; posts like this happen.

 

[JMGlasgow]

Probably 2-5.

 

[spife7980]

2 for me:

First Shot: I'd forget to dial and wonder why I couldn't see splash.
Second Shot: Same with as first... then I'd remember...
Third shot: basically a sighter but I might get lucky
Fourth and Fifth: Ray Charles Special --- one in the left eye and one in the right --- for SURE!

**"Except on Sundays, in which case, I'd accidentally load 4 rounds and think I shot 5. Then target would only be a pissed off pirate! ***

I shouldn't be awake at 2:30am; posts like this happen.

That’s about right lol.

I was going to say that I don’t have a 6.5 but I’d take whoever rifle it was and ask them for the call, waste the first two bitching at them that that their data is wrong, insist I get the weather meter, calipers, rangefinder and labradar back out again. Then spend the third to get crude velocity and hope for some dirt to fly, enter that new info, see I’m just off to the side on the fourth and then finally maybe hit on the 5th.

 

[Barney88PDC]

3 things. Like previously stated if the wind is variable 5-10 that's much more difficult than something steady.

18 inch what? Assuming a square but a 18 inch circle is approximately %78 smaller and still 18 inches.

Last target position and backdrop / backstop play into this as well. On a nice dry, clean dirt berm where dust is going to kick up is one thing, on top of a 5 foot T Post against a wood line is something else.

Assuming a good clean berm, 18 inch square and steady wind. I'd say 2-3 would be pretty doable almost every time. Make the correct wind guess with consistent ammo and 5 is certainly doable but not going to be the norm.

 

[sandwarrior]

I voted for @Bender's Magnetic underwear. In a given location with steady conditions you could go out every day and hit four or five out of five. Change conditions and a lot of us would struggle. For most of us, our first impulse is to just lay down fire and see where we hit. Then calculate all changes off that. Those who do a deep analysis fare better. But, there are still plenty of surprises.

But, try going from five or six thousand feet to sea level where you don't have that one variable to account for. It gets really tough. Especially when you go to a spot where you have to not only re-fuggle out what the wind will do, but elevation changes that affect trajectory. Down in a bowl, terrain, or a front range, that when weather systems move in or out, increase pressure when they seem like they should be decreasing it. Or, vice versa.

 

[diverdon]

I can only answer in a range, I would probably make between zero and two if the wind god favored me.

There really should not be an choice of one, two, three, or four. If you know that you can make one hit then you should do the same thing for all five and make five hits. Is five hits possible, sure but for me, beyond 1,000, strings of hits starting with CB extending to five are a big thrill. They do happen, but I am not going to bet anything I can't loose on one.

 

[steve123]

Big difference between 5mph and 10mph, because the wind is fluctuating and the faster the wind the greater the chance of the spread of that fluctuation in drift.

A few days ago I went 2/2 on a 21" plate at 1122Y in 5 mph winds using 1.1 mil holdoff with my 6mmBR. I'm fairly confident if I'd rattled off 3 more they'd been hits because I was well centered on the steel. I just made a good guess this time, next time who knows???

I've found it very interesting lately the difference low ES and small vertical/6mmBR can do comparatively when it comes to hitting stuff in medium winds! Recently a friend and I were shooting at a 1' wide steel 1025Y away. With his 260 and 6.5 Saum he hardly hit that steel. I was nailing that sucker often with 5" vertical, it surprised me actually! His rifles are 1 moa and mine touches shots at 100Y, so there's that.

I remember shooting my 30-375R with .77BC/225's going 2935 fps and comparing that to my 6x47L. It sure made reading wind on windy days less of an issue!

 

[isofahunter]

Not only would I get 5x5 it would be in a 3.36 inch group since I am a .25 MOA shooter on the interweb. IRL 2 would be good an anything better would be outstanding IMO

 

[wigwamitus]

My recent "wind practice" as I call it is along these lines ... 0 points for a hit. Penalty points for each miss. Must get each target once before advancing to the next.

250yds - 8 penalty points (2 x 8 inch steel squares
500yds - 4 penalty points ( ipsc (2/3) 12 x 24 steel )
500yds - 2 penalty points ( 6 x 6 face )
750yds - 3 penalty points ( ipsc (2/3) 12 x 24 )
1.050yds - 2 penalty points ( ipsc (2/3) 12 x 24 )

I typically score between 2-8 ... my 750yds and 1,050yds targets are down hill across a creek and over the tops of some 40 foot high trees ... so the wind is pretty tricky there ... I've gotten a few first round hits but 2nd or 3rd round hits are more normal. I usually clean all the 250yd and 500yd targets, but the wind usually gets me for at least the first round on the 750yd and 1,050yd.

==
So if this is a flat as a pancake shooting range in german's scenario, I'd give myself 2-3 rounds to get on target and then I'd expect to hit the rest. So average 50%.

I'd have to use the .300WM(24) and 220gr bullets as I don't have a 6.5CM.

 

[ThePretzel]

Realistically probably 0-3 rounds, though a lot of that depends on the conditions near the target. If it's in open-ish space with dirt or rocks that I can see the splash off of, I would expect to hit at least 2 shots. If there's a bunch of trees around, or snow/grass that obscures the splash, then the odds of seeing misses and making hits unless my coldbore was right shrinks. If you can see vapor trail that would help, but while that's not too tough with my 6BR it would definitely be tougher with 6.5Creed.

 

[Shanerbanner10]

I accidentally hit enter on my keyboard after clicking on 5 on accident. My answer probably would have been 3 or 4.

Target is .4 wide
Assuming full value winds
5mph = roughly 1.5 mils
10 mph = roughly 2.9 mils

You've got a about a full mil of variance aka you're windcall better be within 1.5 mph or you'll miss.

That said, with a gusting wind I doubt many people would get more than 2. With a steady wind I don't see 3-4 being all that bad. Really just depends on conditions.