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How long did the last ammo shortage last and thoughts about this one.

casob

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Minuteman
Jan 27, 2013
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Can some of your veteran shooting provide some insight and prospective. How long did the last ammo shortage last and how long do you think this one will last. I want to buy a couple different caliber rifles but the ammo is not very plentiful for alot great deal of calibers.

To a newer shooter, just under two years it has been a frustrating last four months.
 
When Obama was first elected it took just over a year for everything to start to stabilize...That one does not compare to the preset situation.

Things trickle in and are sold immediately...You have to make a game out of it or it will drive you nuts. I get pretty happy when a backordered item finally shows up after 2 months of waiting.

Give it 6months after congress is done for supply to start to stabilize...give it 12 months for supply to return to normal...give it 16months for the market to be flooded with SOOOO much stuff....and finally....give it 10 more years until history, unfortunately, repeats itself.
 
I agree Trusty but i don't think you will see prices come back to where they where. Ammo makers and retailers will raise prices because the general public has proven they will pay the price. I saw a box of rem 44 mag ammo that sold for $39 bucks before Christmas at Gander today marked up to $67.00 That's crazy.
 
I agree Trusty but i don't think you will see prices come back to where they where. Ammo makers and retailers will raise prices because the general public has proven they will pay the price. I saw a box of rem 44 mag ammo that sold for $39 bucks before Christmas at Gander today marked up to $67.00 That's crazy.

I Absolutely agree with you. I didn't mention anything about prices - Just that supply will begin to stabilize.

Speaking about prices....People will remember who was fair to them during these tough times. These fair and honest retailers will have gained loyal customers for a lifetime....
 
As long as people are willing to pay the high prices-the prices will remain high. A lot of the ammo being sold is not being fired, but rather stored/stockpiled-the same thing with components. I started a string a few weeks ago regarding ammo availability. I believe once the fed's 1.5+billion rounds are met, more ammo will flow to the public, along with Every Free nations Ammo plants will continue to gear up/add extra shifts etc. More ammo will start coming in from outside the U.S., along with bullets and cases(much easier to ship-no powder-no primer). If anything is going to be a long term "problem" I'd be looking at primers and powder, due to shipping regs/U.S. Customs etc. (can/do influence availability-sometimes based on the whim of the people in charge).
 
As long as people are willing to pay the high prices-the prices will remain high. A lot of the ammo being sold is not being fired, but rather stored/stockpiled-the same thing with components. I started a string a few weeks ago regarding ammo availability. I believe once the fed's 1.5+billion rounds are met, more ammo will flow to the public, along with Every Free nations Ammo plants will continue to gear up/add extra shifts etc. More ammo will start coming in from outside the U.S., along with bullets and cases(much easier to ship-no powder-no primer). If anything is going to be a long term "problem" I'd be looking at primers and powder, due to shipping regs/U.S. Customs etc. (can/do influence availability-sometimes based on the whim of the people in charge).
I am afraid we might see a ban on imported ammo sometime soon. I hope not but I wouldn't put it past our lawmakers to do it.
 
One of my fears are limitation on ammo. Whether it be restricting quantity, background checks on it, taxes, components, internet sales, shipping.

I buy powder, primers and bullets by the case to ensure the same lot number for years of shooting - I'm sure there are many like me that do the same.

If I could only buy 20 rounds a month....well, I don't want to think about it.
 
Ban on imported ammo? #%*%# I have been considering purchaings a 7.62x54r imported bolt rifle to off set this ammo shortage. I even considered a 7.62x39 because you can get imported ammo much cheaper.

It drives me nuts not to be able to shoot.
 
I forsee prices coming back to where they were before if everything settles out, and here's why. Say shop A has a case of .223 for x amount. Shop B, wanting to be Competitive offeres there case of .223 for X amount minus y percent to undercut shop A. Then shop C, known for their huge weekend sales offers a case of .223 for 30% less than shop B's normal price. They do this with enough regularity that people will wait a couple of weeks for the next big weekend sale. Shop A and Shop B must lower there prices to be competitive with shop C. Given enough time without any major scares. With enough supply. Things will sort themselves out.
 
The simple fact is that there have been 46 million guns added to 'our' inventory in the last 4 years. That's a lot more guns to feed so demand is going to be sky-high for the foreseeable future. Last time (circa 2008) Obama was simply elected, and there was no gun legislation being proposed. This time we have hard-core gun laws coming at us and 46 million more guns... You do the math.
 
With the amount of powder that is imported, it sounds like we need to make a few factories here in the US and cut out the import regs and bullshit. Yes I know American labor is way more expensive but I think even with that factored in, the price could be competitive.
 
The simple fact is that there have been 46 million guns added to 'our' inventory in the last 4 years. That's a lot more guns to feed so demand is going to be sky-high for the foreseeable future. Last time (circa 2008) Obama was simply elected, and there was no gun legislation being proposed. This time we have hard-core gun laws coming at us and 46 million more guns... You do the math.

Just because there have been more gun sales does not necessarily mean that there will be a vast increase in ammo demand. A lot of new gun owners aren't shooting 100 rounds a week. They are buying a gun, maybe two boxes of ammo to go with it, and keeping it in their closet or safe. This is not saying that there is not more of a demand, because with more owners, there always will be, however you state that since 2008, 46 million guns were added to "our inventory" yet in early December, ammo was readily available. I see a lot of this ammo that was bought up coming back in to circulation in a few months, after things settle down. People who panicked and spent their paychecks on cases of ammo instead of paying their bills will find themselves with the same cases they bought in december still sitting in their garage, and ammo on the shelves at the local Cabelas or Academy and will be looking at something they want to get, or making a payment on something they purchased and can't afford, and take those unused cases and sell them.
 
There are a TON of new gun owners too this time around...not just folks buying additional weapons.

Case in point: my boss, a stupidly busy small business owner with almost no free time, had me find an AR15 for him "because the dickheads in DC don't think I should have it, and one day soon I might have to protect everything I've ever worked for".
 
There are a TON of new gun owners too this time around...not just folks buying additional weapons.

Case in point: my boss, a stupidly busy small business owner with almost no free time, had me find an AR15 for him "because the dickheads in DC don't think I should have it, and one day soon I might have to protect everything I've ever worked for".

Why was he stupid? because he would not take the time to find his own weapon. Or because his line of thought about DC and he may have to protect everything.
 
Why was he stupid?

He's not stupid - he's stupidly busy.

As in, he's so busy working 100 hour weeks keeping me employed that he doesn't have time to find an AR15 for himself, so he asked me to do it for him because he knows I'm into shooting (I bring rifles on trips the way some pilots carry golf clubs).
 
He's not stupid - he's stupidly busy.

As in, he's so busy working 100 hour weeks keeping me employed that he doesn't have time to find an AR15 for himself, so he asked me to do it for him because he knows I'm into shooting (I bring rifles on trips the way some pilots carry golf clubs).

Oh, thanks for the response. I was hoping that was the reply not that my opinion is really that important. I am fairly new to the forum and I do take stock in the opinion of the long time members. I did not wish to offend by asking the question. Your point of view does matter.
 
The simple fact is that there have been 46 million guns added to 'our' inventory in the last 4 years.

My boss bought two of them in January. He's yet to fire a round.
 
I guess when it comes down to it. We will see prices come back as i stated before they just won't come back to where they were. But we will see. I hope I am wrong and prices go back to pre 2001 when you could but 1000 rounds of .223 for $250.00 and that was the good stuff. Powder was $14.00 a pound.
 
I guess when it comes down to it. We will see prices come back as i stated before they just won't come back to where they were. But we will see. I hope I am wrong and prices go back to pre 2001 when you could but 1000 rounds of .223 for $250.00 and that was the good stuff. Powder was $14.00 a pound.

You won't see it that low again as long as the current regime is in power. A fair amount of the rise in prices pre 2012 election were due to taxes being levied against them courtesy of Uncle Barry in the White House. i don't see these taxes coming off any time soon, given their lust for money and higher taxes. This is not to be political, just a statement of current facts. Maybe, if we can change the government through the election process, we might be able to get some of this repealed, but I wouldn't hold my breath for it.
 
You won't see pre-9/11 prices because of 11+ years of increased global demand for raw goods and devaluation of the dollar.
 
I wish gas would go back to 2001 pricing, regardless of what D.C. says in regards to inflation, as they[the current adm] are constantly telling us, we don't have any or very-very little inflation. They haven't noticed that almost everything costs more, but this isn't inflation-it's just 'free market'?
 
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Just because there have been more gun sales does not necessarily mean that there will be a vast increase in ammo demand. A lot of new gun owners aren't shooting 100 rounds a week.

Those new gun owners may not be shooting a lot, but they are probably becoming very aware of the possibility of future ammo shortages and are acting accordingly.

Put another way - if I go buy another rifle chambered in .223 or .308, I may not feel the need to lay in additional supplies of ammo. If I've never owned a gun, then I may very well indeed feel the need to pick up a 1k case of ammo along with that new AR15 even if that amount of ammo would last me several lifetimes.
 
Hi casob,

I fear that thrusty is right; we can expect this shortage to last a good while yet. Where I am there was a dip 2-4 weeks back where I started seeing a lot more stock, but that was just a blip. To get just 3 lbs. of Reloader 22 the other day I had to call over a dozen shops and then drive some fifty miles. And bullets--don't even get me started on how hard those are to find.

Plan accordingly, I guess.

Yours,

David
 
All,

I looked into the process of being able to make my own bullets and the raw lead materal is out there at the moment but it appears that it can fairly dangerous process. I not sure you can eaisly get the boat tail design that I perfer to sheet not to mention that the the jacketing process is just not possible.
 
It'll go back down. Especially when people get side tracker with other issues or fill they have enough.
 
I think it's starting to turn. I noticed the $25 AR mags aren't moving like they were. Ammo, components, etc should soon follow. Will probably be another six months before supply is back to normal.
 
Its slowing down. People are running out of money, and just like the liberals the emotion factor has come down.

The $3000 ARs aernt selling anymore, the $50 pmags expire and ammo is slowly starting to trickle in. So many more gunowners were added that the supply, if even 2 boxes per new gunowner were quickly depleted. It takes time, and the majority went out and bought what they felt they needed and/or cant financially justify continuing doing so.

Either way, theres going to be ALOT of cheap shit coming in about a year and I hope the people that bought tons of ammo solely to resell it at already inflated prices cant pay their mortgages when they cant sell all that shit.
 
I hope the people that bought tons of ammo solely to resell it at already inflated prices cant pay their mortgages when they cant sell all that shit.

Amen Brother. I did buy quite a bit myself, but that was for my own supply and enjoyment. I don't have the stock that I'd like to have, and I don't plan to sell any of what I have either. I feel that every household should have plenty to shoot and plenty on hand for SHTF. Even with what I did buy, I don't have what I feel I should.

As for those who thought it would be an investment, I hope they find out otherwise. all they did was screw the rest of us who were actually shooting, and they plan to screw the undiscerning later. I hope their plan "blows up" in their face---Figuratively.
 
Im hoping by early fall all this crap will have stabilized. I feel like im doing drug deals in the parking lot at the range buying powder from guys....
 
I view this as a good thing for society - instead of people blowing hundreds or thousands of dollars on electronic trinkets that will be worthless in a couple of years, they are spending their money on things with intrinsic value. Yeah, it sucks that we pissed away most of our industrial capacity and now can't make enough to keep everyone happy, but that's how the free market works.
 
I'm thinking things are going to stay lean for a year or more. Yes lots of people have spent a lot of money and horded things, but there are other people like me and my social group who had enough not to panic (much) but are waiting for things to start to become available and then start doing large buys. I can't imagine we're alone so that should provide a bit of a "double dip" in scarsity. There are also the new gun owners, some of which I've helped buy their new toys, who have nothing other than some guns/mags and are looking to make up for years of not stockpiling by buying all they can when they can.

Just saying there is some pent-up demand that's waiting to get into the buying game.
 
I admit it...I had a panic buy moment.
Brought a brick of CCI standard and a 100 pack of Mini-Mags for $43 inc. tax.
I have still bricks of Blaser at under $9.00 but I wanted to get in on the madness.
 
I think its weaning off. I have been able to come across ammo at Cabela's, Walmart and academy. To pretty much sum it up people are running out of money or are tired of spending money. I have seen tons of 5.56 ammo for sale on a local site for TX at around $0.60 a round. Still not a stellar price but far better than the $1.00 a round a few weeks ago. Bulk packs of 22LR listed on there down to $40 for the federal bulk 525.
 
Within 150 miles of Memphis TN, ammo is still very hard to find and prices are nuts.
 
I don't subscribe to the panic market mentality. I maintain a small stock of ammo, sufficient only for my forseeable needs. If all good things come to a permanent end, my needs will place ammunition purchases rather a bit down from the top of my list of priorities. Since November, I purchased a box of 44mag (at an outrageous price) simply because I felt that I would be using it next year as a customary part of my deer harvest strategy. More than this, I don't see a need for; I flatly refuse to pay the current prices except in dire need, and I have NO dire need of any ammo at this point.

I think it prudent to limit my shooting to comps, nuisance control, and seasonal hunting, with little else right now. Other shooting may be frivolous, and if my comp score suffer because of limted practice, so be it until the market stresses recede. Nothing more than simple prudence.

Greg
 
this "panic buying" is far deeper than the past ones. previous ones 380, 9mm, 223 were the hot commadity. this time 22, 30-06, 308 were added to the mix. the longer term effect was a limited amount of the "seasonal" i.e. hunting ammo come deer season. 4 years ago there was a shortage of 30-30 of all things. 303 brit, 8mm mauser were also hard to find. the "end" of the shortages was sooo gradual as to be virtually invisible. same will happen this time. it was officially ended when hoarders started coming into small mom & pop shops trying to sell their supplies because the open marketplace was ignoring them. one day we will walk in to a shop and shelves will be relatively full, and balance will be achieved until the next time. sorta like groundhog day with bill murray.
 
I Absolutely agree with you. I didn't mention anything about prices - Just that supply will begin to stabilize.

Speaking about prices....People will remember who was fair to them during these tough times. These fair and honest retailers will have gained loyal customers for a lifetime....

Perhaps a master list of the said businesses that took advantage of consumers would be beneficial?

For example: Cheaper Than Dirt will never get my business again...
 
It's crazy to see people lined up at the LGS before it opens just in the hopes of getting some 22lr
 
I dont have the time to shoot as much as I did a couple years ago. If I did I wouldnt just because of the prices. I have a supply of ammo but when I see it available at what I consider reasonable prices I buy it. I guess Im hoarding.
 
At least a year until things get even close to back to normal is my guess. As for seeing 33 cent/round 223 ammo again? Who the heck knows, maybe never.
 
One thing that has grabbed my attention is the availability of .243 in my area. My local Dick's has maintained a mound of it and the private retailers have a decent amount in stock.
 
Perhaps a master list of the said businesses that took advantage of consumers would be beneficial?

For example: Cheaper Than Dirt will never get my business again...

I agree 110%! I will note that Brownells, Midway and Powder Valley have done their best to maintain prices and accept millions of backorders. I also recently purchased from Triad (AICS 10 round mags) and their prices where what they always were; You have no idea how much I appreciate that...

I welcome a list of vendors who have supported the 2A by not over-inflating prices....or a list of those vendors who have taken advantage of us.
 
I'm done with CTD as well. Fuck them. Brownells has been a champ for me. I had to swap out night sights on my SIG for a lowlight shoot that was within a week (my fault for waiting) I gave them a call and Brownells came through with a sight pusher for me 3 days turn around. Good service.
 
I'm ticked I can't find ammo to feed my new rifle, 6.5 Creedmoor. I am signed up for email notifications from Midway and I check their site EVERY DAMN DAY and nothing! They haven't gotten any of that ammo since mid February. Where the heck is it? Hornady says they're still pumping it all out at the same or a higher rate of production, but Midway can't get it for a month +? Something doesn't jive. I don't think DHS is using 6.5CM and adding that to their 1.6 Billion rounds are they?

I'm was wanting to shoot comps this year finally, but I won't and can't now. If the ammo doesn't come, then I've got a really nice expensive rifle that just goes 'click' instead of 'Boom'. I am afraid to shoot the small amount that I have.
 
I got this in a newsletter from Brownells. Jim Shepherd is editor and publisher of The Outdoor Wire.
I'm not saying that Mr. Shepherd is right or wrong....just that he has contacts in all areas of guns and ammo
production and sales. His perspective might help us understand the current shortage of gun related products.


Brownells Gunsmith Corner - March 2013

Shortages - They're Not A Conspiracy
By Jim Shepherd


Wherever you're accustomed to getting your shooting news these days, chances are you're hearing – repeatedly – that the industry is suffering from chronic shortages of guns, ammunition, and components, most particularly those designed to be used on the modern sporting rifle.

Over the past six weeks, I've been across the country, and I can tell you from talking with retailers in big cities like Phoenix, Atlanta and Houston to small gun shops in Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Mississippi, Arizona, Georgia and Texas that the shortages are real. I've also spoken at length with manufacturers, and they're all telling me the same thing: the shortages aren't driven by a government conspiracy or hoarding. They're being driven by demand. And a lot of that demand is fueled by new shooters, despite some politicians who would like you to believe that the number of U.S. households with guns is dropping.

The shortages most often reported concern the modern sporting rifle and accessories that politicians have targeted since the Sandy Hook tragedy.

Sure, there's unprecedentedly high demand for AR-style rifles, standard 30-round magazines, and the 5.56/.223 ammunition most of them are chambered to shoot.

But there's also a huge demand for standard-capacity magazines for today's modern striker-fired polymer pistols from Springfield Armory, Smith & Wesson, Ruger, Taurus, Glock, and many other manufacturers. Demand is also high for magazines for Ruger ranch rifles and virtually any other gun that accepts a magazine with a capacity of more than 10 rounds. Tried to find any 25-round magazines for a Ruger 10/22® rifle lately? Don't - unless you want to get really frustrated.

Executives at major gun companies, accessory makers, and the major ammo brands tell me they've seen periods of high demand before, but nothing so long-lasting or as widely varied as today's demand. They're doing everything they can to catch up on a growing backlog of orders. But here's the short version of that story: it's going to take time.

We don't realize how intertwined the varied shooting disciplines really are. You may have a hard time figuring out why you can't find reloading components for shot shells. But consider this: all ammunition shares some base-level components - powder, primers and projectiles.

The ammunition to fuel your gun of choice, be it a rifle, pistol or shotgun, is in competition with every other gun and ammo for the basic components and the manufacturer's machine time to assemble them.

Companies don't have independent production lines for every gun they make or every caliber of ammunition they load.

That time is shared across all their lines, and it's tough to pull the tools and computer controlled programming for AR-style rifles to fill other orders. Simple business sense says you have to keep working to meet the highest-demand orders. If buyers give up on buying your gun, they're going to go looking elsewhere.

So your favorite round or gun may be finding itself pushed further down the production schedule. As that happens, existing inventory shrinks - even if the demand isn't anything approaching those uber-hot black rifles.

You might be feeling the pinch, but it's not really some secret conspiracy to keep you from having guns or ammunition. It's the market reacting to unprecedented demand for products.

Some people snapped up guns and ammo when they could find them. They weren't buying them for their own use; they were planning to roll them out during the hottest demand times and make a killing by price gouging. Here's a secret from watching demand periods in the past: speculators very seldom make money. Usually, they lose money because they try to guess prices when they're the highest.

Unfortunately, they can't, or at least they haven't been able to in the past. Speculating is a risky business, especially when the demand will slack off as soon as manufacturers begin catching up. When they do - and they will - speculators will find themselves on the short end of the deal.

Reputable manufacturers, distributors and retailers haven't jacked up their prices. It's not that kind of industry, and the gun consumer has a very long memory. Risking your long-term success in order to make a short-term profit is the equivalent of booking the express train to failure.

Finally, it's not just "regular guys" like us who are looking for ammo. I know several TV show producers and noted gun writers who are out there scrounging for ammo just like the rest of us.

Jim Shepherd is editor and publisher of The Outdoor Wire (The Outdoor Wire) and The Shooting Wire (www.shootingwire.com), all parts of The Outdoor Wire Digital Network.
 
I am afraid to shoot the small amount that I have.

Yep. I just got a browning B-92 in 44 magnum, and had only fired five rounds of the 50 or so I have on hand. Calling around town, one shop had some ammo in stock. I asked how much, and he said 65 for a box of 50. I chuckled, hung up the phone, and put the rifle in the safe.
 
How far behind is Powder Valley running with shipping out of stock items? Every last item I need is 'Out of Stock'. Just wondering if they're filling back orders. I don't mind waiting, just wondering how it works. Midway says 'No Back Order' on a lot of their items. Thanks.