How much is the “Popular Vote” skewed by non-voters?

TheHorta

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  • Jan 17, 2014
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    So, my office is in southern Kommiefornia, even though I live in Sweet Home Alabama. I spend about 3 month per year in CA. I’m originally from the NYC area (born in Boston) before escaping to the South.

    My office is in Orange County (Irvine) which has a strong conservative presence. That said, most every conservative I know in CommieLand (CA/NY/MA/NJ) doesn’t vote in Presidential Elections because they know it won’t matter. I agree that it won’t change the Electoral outcome, but it sure as hell will have a significant impact on the Popular Vote numbers. Hitlery and the entire Far Left Nazi Machine used her purported Popular Majority to claim a moral victory, resulting in yet more outcry to eliminate the Electoral College.

    My hypothesis is (and you can apply it both ways) that people in staunch Blue/Red States don’t come out when they feel their vote is futile and won’t effect a change. The Coastal Elites have their numbers concentrated in densely-packed urban areas, which dominate population demographics. This clearly and unequivocally favors the Blue/Left from a popular vote perspective and strongly dissuades Red/Right voter participation. As a result, The “Popular Vote Effect” is amplified heavily in favor of Left.

    Just some mental gymnastics, but I think we’d all like to see Trump crush the Left this time around and deliver a landslide in BOTH EC and Popular votes. To do that, conservatives in Blue strongholds will need to come out in record numbers, even if their votes from an EC perspective are futile.
     

    Threadcutter308

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    Even if you think you vote "Doesn't count" you need to get off your rear end and go vote.
    Otherwise you have no right to complain about anything with the ones that got voted in.
    I'll go so far as to say that not voting in any election is Un-Patriotic and that people should lose their votings rights if it goes on long enough without extenuating circumstances. People should take some pride and some interest in their Country and it's well being instead of being a spoiled, self centered little brat........

    My wife and I spend (spent.... :rolleyes: ) a lot of time in Switzerland. The Swiss Confederation Presidential term is limited to one year and the incumbent is not eligible for re-election to a second term "immediately".

    What is glaringly striking is that in spite of there being 9 different parties, all vying for the top spot, whoever wins (has won) has and continues to do primarily in what is the country's best interests. You just don't find anything remotely close to the divisiveness there as what has happened (continues to happen/has gotten worse) here.
     

    bunsen27

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    If you want to do a deeper dive into the 2016 results down to the county level here is a great tool:


    HilidaBeast only won the popular vote by ~1.3 million votes.

    Looking at this data there are around 152 million registered voters currently, so if I did the math correctly that is a 0.8% margin of "victory" in the popular vote?


    It's possible that Trump could carry the popular vote if certain minority groups defect the Dem party ticket, but I would not be willing to bet money on that occurring.
     

    theLBC

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    we can always hope mail in ballots backfires
     

    Forgetful Coyote

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    I'll go so far as to say that not voting in any election is Un-Patriotic and that people should lose their votings rights if it goes on long enough without extenuating circumstances. People should take some pride and some interest in their Country and it's well being instead of being a spoiled, self centered little brat........

    My wife and I spend (spent.... :rolleyes: ) a lot of time in Switzerland. The Swiss Confederation Presidential term is limited to one year and the incumbent is not eligible for re-election to a second term "immediately".

    What is glaringly striking is that in spite of there being 9 different parties, all vying for the top spot, whoever wins (has won) has and continues to do primarily in what is the country's best interests. You just don't find anything remotely close to the divisiveness there as what has happened (continues to happen/has gotten worse) here.
    Switzerland makes some of the nicest rifles in the world, if not THE nicest.. Bleiker, Grunig & Elmiger, Hammerli, SIG 550/551/552/553, SIG 510/Stgw 57, K31, 1911, etc.. but they’ve recently passed some seriously fckd up draconian gun control laws that look like they apparently will wipe out Swiss firearm manufacturing from what I’ve read.
     

    Threadcutter308

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    Switzerland makes some of the nicest rifles in the world, if not THE nicest.. Bleiker, Grunig & Elmiger, Hammerli, SIG 550/551/552/553, SIG 510/Stgw 57, K31, 1911, etc.. but they’ve recently passed some seriously fckd up draconian gun control laws that look like they apparently will wipe out Swiss firearm manufacturing from what I’ve read.
    Yep, unfortunately, the creep of the EU and Soros' NGO's are making their way into the Swiss political system. They are still light years/decades in front of us, but the EU has threatened them with economic sanctions if they don't start knuckling under. So, the bad guys are getting a toehold. It's worse over in Austria, particularly on the topic of "immigration".
     
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    Concrete shooter

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    So, my office is in southern Kommiefornia, even though I live in Sweet Home Alabama. I spend about 3 month per year in CA. I’m originally from the NYC area (born in Boston) before escaping to the South.

    My office is in Orange County (Irvine) which has a strong conservative presence. That said, most every conservative I know in CommieLand (CA/NY/MA/NJ) doesn’t vote in Presidential Elections because they know it won’t matter. I agree that it won’t change the Electoral outcome, but it sure as hell will have a significant impact on the Popular Vote numbers. Hitlery and the entire Far Left Nazi Machine used her purported Popular Majority to claim a moral victory, resulting in yet more outcry to eliminate the Electoral College.

    My hypothesis is (and you can apply it both ways) that people in staunch Blue/Red States don’t come out when they feel their vote is futile and won’t effect a change. The Coastal Elites have their numbers concentrated in densely-packed urban areas, which dominate population demographics. This clearly and unequivocally favors the Blue/Left from a popular vote perspective and strongly dissuades Red/Right voter participation. As a result, The “Popular Vote Effect” is amplified heavily in favor of Left.

    Just some mental gymnastics, but I think we’d all like to see Trump crush the Left this time around and deliver a landslide in BOTH EC and Popular votes. To do that, conservatives in Blue strongholds will need to come out in record numbers, even if their votes from an EC perspective are futile.
    Amen!
    This is exactly why the *elimination of the electoral college* argument from the marxist is asinine! President Trump lost the Popular vote in 2016 because he didn't campaign in lost cause states. Why would a republican spend valuable time and money in California?
    You're exactly right, people in New York and California, for example, stay home because they don't think their vote matters.
    It's the same as loosing fans in football claiming, " but we outgained them by 200 yards". The answer is: SO WHAT DUMBASS! WE AIN'T PLAYING FOR YARDS, IF WE WERE WE WOULD HAVE KICKED YOUR ASS IN YARDS!
    It's the same thing with elections. They want to change the rules after the fact to change a past outcome. Change the rules ahead of time and the strategy is different, thus the outcome is more than likely still the same.
     

    Vodoun daVinci

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    Something like half the people in America do not vote. Pretty much is like the people I live and work with - half of them don't/won't vote. We have to ask ourselves why that is - that literally half the folks in America don't vote and never have and likely never fucking will. Probably 'cause they are stupid and don't care I suspect but the ones I know are anything *but* stupid and they definitely care. They won't affect this election 'cause they don't vote but I'm always curious when Red Franchise wins or Blue Franchise wins and then they claim it is a "consensus of the will of The People". Laugh my ass off...it's the desires of like 26% of the population and for every person that agrees with it?

    There are likely 3 that didn't want it. So much for this Republic....looks like The Supreme Court will be choosing our next President but it may take a while.

    VooDoo
     

    atomic41

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    So, my office is in southern Kommiefornia, even though I live in Sweet Home Alabama. I spend about 3 month per year in CA. I’m originally from the NYC area (born in Boston) before escaping to the South.

    My office is in Orange County (Irvine) which has a strong conservative presence. That said, most every conservative I know in CommieLand (CA/NY/MA/NJ) doesn’t vote in Presidential Elections because they know it won’t matter. I agree that it won’t change the Electoral outcome, but it sure as hell will have a significant impact on the Popular Vote numbers. Hitlery and the entire Far Left Nazi Machine used her purported Popular Majority to claim a moral victory, resulting in yet more outcry to eliminate the Electoral College.

    My hypothesis is (and you can apply it both ways) that people in staunch Blue/Red States don’t come out when they feel their vote is futile and won’t effect a change. The Coastal Elites have their numbers concentrated in densely-packed urban areas, which dominate population demographics. This clearly and unequivocally favors the Blue/Left from a popular vote perspective and strongly dissuades Red/Right voter participation. As a result, The “Popular Vote Effect” is amplified heavily in favor of Left.

    Just some mental gymnastics, but I think we’d all like to see Trump crush the Left this time around and deliver a landslide in BOTH EC and Popular votes. To do that, conservatives in Blue strongholds will need to come out in record numbers, even if their votes from an EC perspective are futile.
    I've wondered the same and my gut tells me that it plays a big role. I can imagine a scenario where if we went by popular vote it would benefit republicans because a lot of people that stay home in CA and NY normally, would then come out and vote R. No idea if that is true but I can imagine how that might work.

    I will tell you that I'm seeing a massive red wave in MN coming. Pretty much all unions, all police, the entire northern half of the state (mining), lots of independents, farmers, dem voters, and even a group of democrat mayors are voting for Trump. The energy here is crazy and MN is going red for the first time since Nixon. MN is going to give electoral points but also boost the popular vote a bit, at least more than usual.

    The reason I'm bringing this up is if this solidly blue state is swinging this hard, I can only imagine that other states are too and Trump has a chance of winning the popular vote as well this time. Of course all of this is affected by the level of voter fraud that the communists can achieve.
     

    Nik H

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  • Jan 22, 2014
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    So, my office is in southern Kommiefornia, even though I live in Sweet Home Alabama. I spend about 3 month per year in CA. I’m originally from the NYC area (born in Boston) before escaping to the South.

    My office is in Orange County (Irvine) which has a strong conservative presence. That said, most every conservative I know in CommieLand (CA/NY/MA/NJ) doesn’t vote in Presidential Elections because they know it won’t matter. I agree that it won’t change the Electoral outcome, but it sure as hell will have a significant impact on the Popular Vote numbers. Hitlery and the entire Far Left Nazi Machine used her purported Popular Majority to claim a moral victory, resulting in yet more outcry to eliminate the Electoral College.

    My hypothesis is (and you can apply it both ways) that people in staunch Blue/Red States don’t come out when they feel their vote is futile and won’t effect a change. The Coastal Elites have their numbers concentrated in densely-packed urban areas, which dominate population demographics. This clearly and unequivocally favors the Blue/Left from a popular vote perspective and strongly dissuades Red/Right voter participation. As a result, The “Popular Vote Effect” is amplified heavily in favor of Left.

    Just some mental gymnastics, but I think we’d all like to see Trump crush the Left this time around and deliver a landslide in BOTH EC and Popular votes. To do that, conservatives in Blue strongholds will need to come out in record numbers, even if their votes from an EC perspective are futile.
    I always voted when I lived in SoCal...14 years...right next to Irvine. I was born outside Boston and lived in MA for most of my life before moving to CA. Always voted in MA as well. Now I live in RI and always vote there.

    Commies to the left of me and liberals to the right but I still vote
     

    Forgetful Coyote

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    I've wondered the same and my gut tells me that it plays a big role. I can imagine a scenario where if we went by popular vote it would benefit republicans because a lot of people that stay home in CA and NY normally, would then come out and vote R. No idea if that is true but I can imagine how that might work.

    I will tell you that I'm seeing a massive red wave in MN coming. Pretty much all unions, all police, the entire northern half of the state (mining), lots of independents, farmers, dem voters, and even a group of democrat mayors are voting for Trump. The energy here is crazy and MN is going red for the first time since Nixon. MN is going to give electoral points but also boost the popular vote a bit, at least more than usual.

    The reason I'm bringing this up is if this solidly blue state is swinging this hard, I can only imagine that other states are too and Trump has a chance of winning the popular vote as well this time. Of course all of this is affected by the level of voter fraud that the communists can achieve.
    Apparently the usually staunch liberal Iron Range has endorsed Trump this year. All signs certainly do point to a Trump victory. But the threat of Dems cheating is very real, the fact they are fighting so hard for mail in voting says it all..
     

    pmclaine

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  • Nov 6, 2011
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    @TheHorta

    Your non voting neighbors may be educated but they are dumb.

    I put them in the same category as those Communists directly working against the Republic.

    PS - I live in MA. My vote means nothing. When I "win" I get Mitt Romney or Charlie Baker.

    My vote may mean nothing about Conservatism but I owe it to the guy at rest in Arlington National.
     
    Last edited:

    pmclaine

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    I've wondered the same and my gut tells me that it plays a big role. I can imagine a scenario where if we went by popular vote it would benefit republicans because a lot of people that stay home in CA and NY normally, would then come out and vote R. No idea if that is true but I can imagine how that might work.

    I will tell you that I'm seeing a massive red wave in MN coming. Pretty much all unions, all police, the entire northern half of the state (mining), lots of independents, farmers, dem voters, and even a group of democrat mayors are voting for Trump. The energy here is crazy and MN is going red for the first time since Nixon. MN is going to give electoral points but also boost the popular vote a bit, at least more than usual.

    The reason I'm bringing this up is if this solidly blue state is swinging this hard, I can only imagine that other states are too and Trump has a chance of winning the popular vote as well this time. Of course all of this is affected by the level of voter fraud that the communists can achieve.
    A popular vote makes us "The United Cities of America"

    NY, Chitcago, Houston, Los Ángeles and maybe one more big urban population would decide the Presidency.

    The FF wanted the states to choose the Federal Executive.

    The Electoral College allows the State of Wyoming and other sparsely populated but natural resource rich areas to avoid being looted silly by the urban locations outside the state.

    The electoral college is genius with no precedence I am aware of.
     

    pmclaine

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  • Nov 6, 2011
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    Something like half the people in America do not vote. Pretty much is like the people I live and work with - half of them don't/won't vote. We have to ask ourselves why that is - that literally half the folks in America don't vote and never have and likely never fucking will. Probably 'cause they are stupid and don't care I suspect but the ones I know are anything *but* stupid and they definitely care. They won't affect this election 'cause they don't vote but I'm always curious when Red Franchise wins or Blue Franchise wins and then they claim it is a "consensus of the will of The People". Laugh my ass off...it's the desires of like 26% of the population and for every person that agrees with it?

    There are likely 3 that didn't want it. So much for this Republic....looks like The Supreme Court will be choosing our next President but it may take a while.

    VooDoo
    Hopefully they are prepping to vote at the cartridge box and I think their lack of concern for the political marks them as people that want to be left alone by govt and I hope that means they and I are alike in that regard.
     

    Bantam1

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    I am in OC and work in Irvine as well. OC is turning purple and it's not the once stronghold for conservatives that it once was. I agree 100% with the Horta because I hear the exact same thing. People think their vote is wasted, or people just do not vote. I tell the non voters they have no right to complain when things get worse because of their inactions we all get screwed. In CA with the "jungle" primary there is never an opposition party winner to the Dems. Now they have a super majority and just pass laws at will.

    My other favorite is the people that have the same beliefs as I do, but say they won't vote for Trump again because of the things he says or posts on Twitter. So I ask them if they are going to vote Democrat and the answer is "I'm just going to sit this one out". People are dumb and/or brainwashed that politicians need to act like politicians I guess. It frustrates me but there is nothing I can do to change that. So I vote for what I believe, or the lessor of two evils when that is all we have to choose from.