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Ignorant on Corona

A lot of states are shutting down schools now, some bars and restaurants.
Like somebody said China has had this for a while and nobody here give 2 shits about it, now it's here, caught with our pants down. Why ? Because we were fucking around with impeachments and bogus Russia shit.
Hang on, I think this is going to be a ride>
 
I've yet to see a statistical analysis done on the current death rate per age group (say in 10 year or even 5 year increments). All we get is # reported and # dead. We know the nursing facility in WA has attributed a great number of deaths, take those out and what have we in the US? Then worldwide. I'd like to see a plot of death rate on the asbcissa and the age on the ordinate; is an X-Y plot so hard to produce data for with all this new math they teach now?
 
0A59FEEB-2DD7-45DC-BF17-ED53812627C0.png
 
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This link from a source that’s actively part of the solution. Could be others, but this is an option.
The reality is the panic is worse than the actual virus warrants.

Keep your math hygiene on point and you’ll see the hype is worse than the attack.


My question is why are different sites reporting different numbers. That says 3782 cases, 69 deaths, 73 recoveries. Johns Hopkins says 3774 cases, 69 deaths, 12 recoveries. What's supposedly a live map linked in another thread says 3560 cases, 61 deaths, 8 recoveries. Obviously that last one is severely behind the other two, so it's probably not even live, but why the discrepancy between yours and Johns Hopkins? Which one is right?

That's part of the problem here, when different groups/sites have different numbers and people can't rightly tell which is the more accurate.
 
Guy at work said he needed to stock up on dog food. I said good idea. Keep him fat so when things get skinny he can be dinner for a few nights.

He was offended. I said what’s more important your life or your animals... things get skinny and the pets going in the smoker!

Are you kidding right now? This is exactly how the whole thing got started in the first place. Don't eat animals that aren't meant to be eaten.
 
Are you kidding right now? This is exactly how the whole thing got started in the first place. Don't eat animals that aren't meant to be eaten.

except dog has been eaten by humans for thousands of years. It also may be why south korea is doing so well. maybe dog gives you natural immunities?
 
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The following offers no suggestions for a solution, however it is legit work that was done via a consulting engagement I did focused on supply chain, power delivery, tech and communication infrastructures, as they relate to Chinese national and global supply chain and logistical infrastructures. My paper was 29 pages with a lot of words, so I’ll offer some things to consider, and provide awareness. This info WILL figure into what the US and the globe does as a response. This will also sound counterintuitive, however it is anything but.

China ”allowed” an amount of free markets into their operations as a means to fund the projects and spending of the communist party. That was necessary to meet their national and global economic goals. They’ve been earning enough to maintain barely, but not improve and expand their national and global supply chain infrastructures.

The Chinese made debt spending and lending easy because they needed the revenues to continue to operate their military run free market company’s, and to keep the failing infrastructure operational enough to provide the goods they’re been manufacturing for the world. They were running at max capacity as it was. When the global economy, and especially the US economy took off, the strain was obvious. 3 years ago.

Then the US hit China with sanctions and it did create a possible doomsday scenario for the Chinese economically and from an internal infrastructure and supply chain problem. They were about to get lapped economically globally in that they would have the reverse problem of too much demand, that they would have been unable to meet. They needed the world to keep spending and borrowing, and buying, but at the levels they could handle. IF the economic pace kept up, they’d be unable to continue business AND military operations internally and globally.

Internal transportation infrastructure: The party would spend 3/4 of its known budget money to simply bring current national transportation infrastructure to keep it functional on just 10 nationally known infrastructure projects across 8 provinces. That does not include what they’re not admitting to, nor considering the murky book keeping, communist party corruption, and the traditional Chinese cultural “horse trading” we’ll call it. But be real and call it local corruption.

Their technology and communications infrastructure is ratty at best. There is no money to keep it close to modern. Yet, they’ve staked a claim as a world leader in tech and communication. They cannot even offer it, if they wanted to thanks to the party.

Power transmission and distribution infrastructure. There is no universal electrictrificaion in China, and what T&D they do have sucks at best. Rolling blackouts everywhere that electricity is available, and massive lack of service everywhere else.

It was patently obvious, by the numbers alone that China would have to do something radical in the coming years (I did this work 3 years ago) just to keep up with the world, while they tried to spread the Chinese hegemony. China, even then, needed to do something profound to either catch up and modernize, or they were going to have to do something to slow the world down and bring them down to their level (which is part of communist doctrine anyways).

I’m not postulating that China planned this 3 years ago, but the fact that they NEEDED to do something is VERY real, and very obvious if you look at more than a simple act of spreading a new virus. The virus is the small play in the grand scheme of things guys. If anyone thinks that a virus like this, was not forced to make the leap from animal to human, whether its intended purpose was this hysteria that we see now or not, is diluting themselves. The virus was on purpose, period. Intended for this, we can’t say. Yet.

The sanctions rocked China, and they took it as an act of economic warfare. This is about more than a virus. People need to understand that, and what that means for them individually, and for us as a country.

*comments are my own, done via professional consulting engagement. Not meant to endorse any course of action, nor agenda.
 
For better information: stay up to date on CDC announcements and particularly pay attention to the head of the US Public Health Service, and also the advisor to SIX administrations: Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health.

Ignore Donald Trump's public comments.
 
You’re absolutely right in calling out discrepancies.
That link that I posted was as far as I can tell, and I’m happy to be wrong because that means a better source, but it seemed to be the most accurate aggregate based upon their sourcing.

Part of the issue that’s rising insofar as entities like John’s Hopkin’s and CDC is that they’re taking politics into how they respond. I typically office up in a cigar shop a few times a week, and one of my buddies there regularly is a CDC guy. You’d be surprised at how they view the problem internally v. How they’re showing their response to the public. That is not to say that they’re not doing anything, because they are; but they’re not operating in panic mode. Hopkins and the CDC are in an unenviable position of needing to also play the political virtue signaling game, and that’s flavoring their shown response.

That affected my bias insofar as considering sources and getting ahold of data that’s actually been structured. Hopkins and CDC by themselves aren’t putting out structured data per say unfortunately. They can’t really. But I would submit that you’ll likely see them start to line up with the stats in that link. It is comprised of only explicitly verified cases. Not to say it’s the most accurate, it’s just the most accurate that I, and some peers who are high level guys, have found. IF there is a better source of stats, all for knowing what that is.
 
Ignore the public comments if for no other reason than he did kick off the CDC and national COOP 2 days before the Chinese released the story and admitted to the world that this bug was on the run, and we’ve been in response mode since early January. It is going to be a political hammer because while certain politicos were pushing the impeachment, the government was already in response mode to this virus. There is more going on than people realize.

But just as this is a new virus and we do not have herd inoculation yet, data about this is all pretty much unstructured at this point. I worked on a project 3 years ago that in my own work concluded beyond a shadow of a doubt that China would have to do something fairly radical. I’m not the only one who’s came to that conclusion. You’ll start seeing the fruits of that response within a few weeks.
 
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Its just a BIG coincidence this hit the airwaves shortly after Trump was acquitted. No way they would have ran with this during his “trial”.

Im just saying, this whole thing STINKS.
Watch “Event 201” on YouTube, take careful note of the DATE, and your suspicions will be confirmed
 
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Japan has nowhere near the infection rate Italy has. I have no idea if there is truth to it, but I had read somewhere that many Italian leather factories had sold out to China and were flying workers in direct from Wuhan.
Have you seen the Japanese even when not having an epidemic they wear masks and gloves ,also are not testing enough for clearer picture.

Italian textile industry did not offshore to China , but instead brought China to work in Italy. You know those fancy big name fashion brands ,they can control the forgery of their products better with factiores at home vs having them in China where one shift would be turning out the 'originals' and next shift the 'fakes' .
Of course Chinese started taking over from subcontracting to runing their own industry , importing cheap materials and workforce from China to produce stuff 'Made in Italy' . You could say Chinese offshored but with all chinese workforce and supply chain , The thing they wanted was the 'Made in Italy' tag and the Italian design and on the products that are as chinese as those made in China. -this has been ongoing for past 40 or so years.
 
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Have you seen the Japanese even when not having an epidemic they wear masks and gloves ,also are not testing enough for clearer picture.

Italian textile industry did not offshore to China , but instead brought China to work in Italy. You know those fancy big name fashion brands ,they can control the forgery of their products better with factiores at home vs having them in China where one shift would be turning out the 'originals' and next shift the 'fakes' .
Of course Chinese started taking over from subcontracting to runing their own industry , importing cheap materials and workforce from China to produce stuff 'Made in Italy' . You could say Chinese offshored but with all chinese workforce and supply chain , The thing they wanted was the 'Made in Italy' tag and the Italian design and on the products that are as chinese as those made in China. -this has been ongoing for past 40 or so years.
correct. many companies in northern italy sold out to china, and then allowed over 100,000 chinese to come and take over production.
they had direct flights to wuhan running during the outbreak.
i also read that the chinese were hiding deaths of these workers, and using the passports from dead chinese for new illegal arrivals.
this was well before the virus problem.
 
It is a political hot potato that can wreck the left IF they use the virus as a narrative to hit Trump with. That is because Trump put the CDC into action 2 days before China even admitted to the virus. He’s not said a word while the media and the left keep pulling the rope that will get used to hang them with their virtual blame game.
 
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People should read reports about how long the virus remains on hard and soft surfaces. Up to 9 days on hard surfaces.

Thousands if not tens of thousands, are likely infected at this point.

they debunked the 9 day deal. I originally heard that as well, the Fucio (or whatever his name is) got on there the other day and said it’s similar to the regular flu, 2-3 days.

i agree 100% though that theres literally 10’s of thousands walking around infected and highly contagious that are not aware of it.


 
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https://www.redstate.com/nick-arama...ed.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=63red

samples


Ronna McDaniel

@GOPChairwoman

THREAD.

Since Democrats in Congress keep attacking @realDonaldTrump, let's compare records.

JAN 7:

CDC established a coronavirus incident management system, two days before China announced the outbreak.

Pelosi began Week 3 of withholding her sham impeachment articles. (1/8)
13.4K
10:20 AM - Mar 11, 2020[


Ronna McDaniel

@GOPChairwoman
Replying to @GOPChairwoman

JAN 21:

The CDC activated its emergency operations center to provide ongoing support to confront coronavirus.

What were Congressional Democrats focused on?

Writing their opening arguments for their bogus impeachment trial. (2/8)
4,122
10:22 AM - Mar 11, 2020


Ronna McDaniel

@GOPChairwoman
Replying to @GOPChairwoman

JAN 27: A tale of 2 press conferences.@Mike_Pence outlined the administration's efforts to work with China to counter coronavirus.

Chuck Schumer demanded that more time be wasted with new impeachment witnesses. (3/8)
3,606
10:23 AM - Mar 11, 2020


Ronna McDaniel

@GOPChairwoman
Replying to @GOPChairwoman

JAN 31:mad:realDonaldTrump initiated travel restrictions from China, which the experts have praised as a critical decision to slow the spread of coronavirus.

Democrat leaders called him “xenophobic” and “racist.” (4/8)
3,910
10:24 AM - Mar 11, 2020
 
You’re absolutely right in calling out discrepancies.
That link that I posted was as far as I can tell, and I’m happy to be wrong because that means a better source, but it seemed to be the most accurate aggregate based upon their sourcing.

Part of the issue that’s rising insofar as entities like John’s Hopkin’s and CDC is that they’re taking politics into how they respond. I typically office up in a cigar shop a few times a week, and one of my buddies there regularly is a CDC guy. You’d be surprised at how they view the problem internally v. How they’re showing their response to the public. That is not to say that they’re not doing anything, because they are; but they’re not operating in panic mode. Hopkins and the CDC are in an unenviable position of needing to also play the political virtue signaling game, and that’s flavoring their shown response.

That affected my bias insofar as considering sources and getting ahold of data that’s actually been structured. Hopkins and CDC by themselves aren’t putting out structured data per say unfortunately. They can’t really. But I would submit that you’ll likely see them start to line up with the stats in that link. It is comprised of only explicitly verified cases. Not to say it’s the most accurate, it’s just the most accurate that I, and some peers who are high level guys, have found. IF there is a better source of stats, all for knowing what that is.
Well what I really wanna know is, how many people so far have recovered, how many are in serious condition, and how many cases in the country there are overall. And the recovery discrepancy is the one that concerns me, because 70-something on worldometers versus 1/6 of that on Johns Hopkins is... interesting.
 
There it is. A massively overlooked hammer that Trump can use down the road as the left keeps accusing him of doing nothing, while they ran sham impeachment hearings.

Even if you completly overlook the dumb tweets and claims DJT and buch of his inner circle was spreading. Someone realy should have taken the damn phone off DJTs hands.

Altough its true CDC budget for domestic work was not cut ,thats only because admin proposals did not got trough the congress
In 2018 80% of the CDC funding to combat global pandemics abroad was cut ,The funding support, which went to training local health professionals and bolstering emergency response across 49 countries, was reduced to just 10 nations. China wasn’t included in the revised list.

''Resoults for first tests took 4 days after a delayed response for requests for disease testing from the CDC, according to medical staff at UC Davis Medical Center in California. They blamed the center’s narrow specifications for distributing coronavirus testing kits; the organization allegedly took days to approve the medical center’s request.''

''In 2018, the National Security Council’s global pandemic director left his post abruptly; then his entire team was disbanded by former national security adviser John Bolton. The Trump administration has yet to refill any of those positions, leaving huge vulnerabilities in US global pandemic preparedness. ''


''October 2019 the Trump Administration opted to discontinue a Bush-era program expanded under Obama—called “Predict”—that monitored the threat of animal-born diseases to humans, the possible origin point of the novel coronavirus. The program was behind the discovery of more than 1,000 viruses, including an Ebola strain.''

''During a standoff on a tarmac in Japan, the State Department pushed to allow 14 coronavirus-infected Americans to board a pair of flights back to the United States. The CDC fought back back, arguing that bringing them back—especially considering the planes carried 300 other passengers who’d tested negative for the disease—would pose an unnecessary risk and more than double the number of infected in the country. In the end, the State Department got its way.''

''As the crisis unfolded one-third of the coronavirus task force took time off to speak at the Conservative Political Action Convention.''

''When a CDCdistributed coronavirus test kit incorrectly gave a negative result, an infected patient was allowed to leave a San Diego hospital. The patient, who was flown back to the US from China, rejoined the quarantine tank of repatriated citizens for an entire day, before being brought back to the hospital. ''

For all intents and purposes no one will care about the dates CDC started preparng all that will be remebered when time push things fell apart like in some 3d world country and that was weeks after most of the world already started own battle.
 

yup. the difference between Italy and Koreas is Italy is only testing individuals with symptoms. Whereas Korea is doing testing broadly across individuals with and without symptoms.

that chart shows how many people in the younger age groups are actually infected and contagious but aren’t exhibiting symptoms.
 
Well what I really wanna know is, how many people so far have recovered, how many are in serious condition, and how many cases in the country there are overall. And the recovery discrepancy is the one that concerns me, because 70-something on worldometers versus 1/6 of that on Johns Hopkins is... interesting.

You do understand that discrepancs is due to tests conducted and time this was going on , mostl accurate are likely the Korean stats , now count the bodies in US so far and multiply with factors from korea.
 
You do understand that discrepancs is due to tests conducted and time this was going on , mostl accurate are likely the Korean stats , now count the bodies in US so far and multiply with factors from korea.
"Multiply with factors from Korea"? What does that mean?
 
Relax and don't panic unless you're really old and in shitty health with crapped out immune system you're most likely in for a less than cold symptoms. Also to note is that this thing is contagious as hell, i got it from a mere meeting (no handshake just a regular business like meeting with beer) that lasted like 3h. The problem health system has are old people who develop secondary bacterial/fungi infections and need active respiratory help and having an old society requires many machines that no medical system in the world has.

Here in Slovenia some cases that went missdiagnosed and under radar were in late Jan early Feb with people coming from skiing in Italy and visits to Trieste or Venice. Only after it became clear that Italy has the huge problem did our shitforbrains politicians realize that this thing is here. Most cases pass for a simple cold with variations regarding temperature, muscle pain, upset stomach or intestines (vomiting and/or shitting like crazy), cough or sore throat. I mistook symptoms for skiing aches and some rotavirus that "came from the kid" as he vomited one evening and i shat next day :) and that was it no temperature, no coughs perhaps a bit wierd i'm not quite ok feeling and some runny nose. Also both my parents (70ies) are perfectly fine although they got it...
 
"Multiply with factors from Korea"? What does that mean?

70+ dead indicate at least 10.000+ infected long enough ,at same death rates (0.7%)as Korea has seen , so 4.000+ confirmed cases is not even remotely close ,not by long shot ,to actual infection numbers.
 
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Note that Sharac is relatively young and fit with internationaly active Tinder account .

My shooting partner that infected him is not faring that well ,just heard from him today ,he is again in hospital for some further testing. Also note these are early days when hospitals can still cope , in Italy patients over certain age will not get much aid anymore as there is no capacity to spare.
 
Relax and don't panic unless you're really old and in shitty health with crapped out immune system you're most likely in for a less than cold symptoms. Also to note is that this thing is contagious as hell, i got it from a mere meeting (no handshake just a regular business like meeting with beer) that lasted like 3h. The problem health system has are old people who develop secondary bacterial/fungi infections and need active respiratory help and having an old society requires many machines that no medical system in the world has.

Here in Slovenia some cases that went missdiagnosed and under radar were in late Jan early Feb with people coming from skiing in Italy and visits to Trieste or Venice. Only after it became clear that Italy has the huge problem did our shitforbrains politicians realize that this thing is here. Most cases pass for a simple cold with variations regarding temperature, muscle pain, upset stomach or intestines (vomiting and/or shitting like crazy), cough or sore throat. I mistook symptoms for skiing aches and some rotavirus that "came from the kid" as he vomited one evening and i shat next day :) and that was it no temperature, no coughs perhaps a bit wierd i'm not quite ok feeling and some runny nose. Also both my parents (70ies) are perfectly fine although they got it...
Best wishes from the States Sharac ! :)

Hope everyone gets better quickly, particularly your parents. (y)
 
"whip numbers to confirm personal bias".

Maybe?
I just don't think you can really compare two countries and expect them to follow the same, or even similar models. Population density, demographic, concentration, and so many other conditions vary greatly between just individual states in the Union. Sure you can have estimates and take all that into consideration, but here's an example: The population of South Korea is some 50 million people, while the population of my home state of GA is around 1/5 of that. But in terms of square area? Georgia is slightly under 60K square miles while South Korea is under 40K. So just in GA alone, you're gonna have severely different statistics from how the disease will affect the population. Trying to apply the math of one location to another when they're so vastly different in pretty much every way seems... undoable.

But I'm not a medical professional nor do I have any kind of background in science or medicine, or mathematics for that matter, so I fully admit that those folks who know better than me might be able to figure that stuff out and understand it way better than I do. I'm not saying Mr.BR is wrong, just that I have difficulty seeing it from his POV.
 
Complacensy is the problem with society when it is faced with situations like this...and the results ,well look at the numbers in Italy and other places.
Around here the powers at be are being extremely complacent and it's going to bite them in the ass very soon.they still want to keep the tourism money machine running at the expense of the public .

My 2 cents for whatever is worth
 
Even if you completly overlook the dumb tweets and claims DJT and buch of his inner circle was spreading. Someone realy should have taken the damn phone off DJTs hands.

Altough its true CDC budget for domestic work was not cut ,thats only because admin proposals did not got trough the congress
In 2018 80% of the CDC funding to combat global pandemics abroad was cut ,The funding support, which went to training local health professionals and bolstering emergency response across 49 countries, was reduced to just 10 nations. China wasn’t included in the revised list.

''Resoults for first tests took 4 days after a delayed response for requests for disease testing from the CDC, according to medical staff at UC Davis Medical Center in California. They blamed the center’s narrow specifications for distributing coronavirus testing kits; the organization allegedly took days to approve the medical center’s request.''

''In 2018, the National Security Council’s global pandemic director left his post abruptly; then his entire team was disbanded by former national security adviser John Bolton. The Trump administration has yet to refill any of those positions, leaving huge vulnerabilities in US global pandemic preparedness. ''


''October 2019 the Trump Administration opted to discontinue a Bush-era program expanded under Obama—called “Predict”—that monitored the threat of animal-born diseases to humans, the possible origin point of the novel coronavirus. The program was behind the discovery of more than 1,000 viruses, including an Ebola strain.''

''During a standoff on a tarmac in Japan, the State Department pushed to allow 14 coronavirus-infected Americans to board a pair of flights back to the United States. The CDC fought back back, arguing that bringing them back—especially considering the planes carried 300 other passengers who’d tested negative for the disease—would pose an unnecessary risk and more than double the number of infected in the country. In the end, the State Department got its way.''

''As the crisis unfolded one-third of the coronavirus task force took time off to speak at the Conservative Political Action Convention.''

''When a CDCdistributed coronavirus test kit incorrectly gave a negative result, an infected patient was allowed to leave a San Diego hospital. The patient, who was flown back to the US from China, rejoined the quarantine tank of repatriated citizens for an entire day, before being brought back to the hospital. ''

For all intents and purposes no one will care about the dates CDC started preparng all that will be remebered when time push things fell apart like in some 3d world country and that was weeks after most of the world already started own battle.

29c.gif
 
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