Inflation.......... ?

Alpine 338

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There are some used autos/trucks priced and selling for almost as much as a new 2021 model. An example. I've been looking for a Toyota Tacoma Truck for about a year or so now, and I'm seeing four or five year old models with mileage between 50-70K selling for as much as $33-36K. You can buy a new one for $35-36K, and that's matching feature for feature. Yes I know, there a cult following with Tacos, but it makes no sense to me.

Makes more sense to me to buy a new one with zero miles for an extra $2K.
 
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    There are some used autos/trucks priced and selling for almost as much as a new 2021 model. An example. I've been looking for a Toyota Tacoma Truck for about a year or so now, and I'm seeing four or five year old models with mileage between 50-70K selling for as much as $33-36K. You can buy a new one for $35-36K, and that's matching feature for feature. Yes I know, there a cult following with Tacos, but it makes no sense to me.

    Makes more sense to by a new one with zero miles for an extra $2K to me
    I was in the market for a used manual 4x4 taco about 7 years ago, they were more $ than a new tundra. Ended up buying a pre-leased tundra for dirt cheap in comparison.
     

    sheepdog697

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    So you saw something, and not knowing the reality, overlayed your beliefs onto it and then saw it as a confirmation of your beliefs? Madness.
    Contractors are buying it in bulk now to keep up with demand in my area. If they don’t buy it now, it can take up to several months for the orders. He’s not wrong. We order components before submittals get approved or we will be fu**ed. More fu**ed than If we order the material and the submittal gets denied.
     
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    Choid

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    Contractors are buying it in bulk now to keep up with demand in my area. If they don’t buy it now, it can take up to several months for the orders. He’s not wrong. We order components before submittals get approved or we will be fu**ed. More fu**ed than If we order the material and the submittal gets denied.
    Buying in bulk in anticipation of demand is different from buying to warehouse because of the assumption of higher prices. I don't doubt that you are buying because you think demand will be high, and that will push prices up if it ends up being that way. But that is the opposite cycle of information from what he is saying. What you are saying makes perfect sense, what he is saying does not.
     

    DarnYankeeUSMC

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    Buying in bulk in anticipation of demand is different from buying to warehouse because of the assumption of higher prices. I don't doubt that you are buying because you think demand will be high, and that will push prices up if it ends up being that way. But that is the opposite cycle of information from what he is saying. What you are saying makes perfect sense, what he is saying does not.
     

    Alpine 338

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    News this morning reporting used car market prices are skyrocketing. Average $3K increase in used car prices since last year this time.

    Mentioned Toyota Tacoma earlier. It was one of the vehicles on the top of the list, retaining 78% value.

    They say Trucks, Sports Cars, and SUVs are the hot commodity.
     

    E. Bryant

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    News this morning reporting used car market prices are skyrocketing. Average $3K increase in used car prices since last year this time.

    Mentioned Toyota Tacoma earlier. It was one of the vehicles on the top of the list, retaining 78% value.

    They say Trucks, Sports Cars, and SUVs are the hot commodity.

    I'm not saying that this report is wrong, but comparing anything right now to anything one year ago is a distortion of reality at best and downright deception at worst.
     

    Choid

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    Contractors are buying it in bulk now to keep up with demand in my area. If they don’t buy it now, it can take up to several months for the orders. He’s not wrong. We order components before submittals get approved or we will be fu**ed. More fu**ed than If we order the material and the submittal gets denied.
    I just want to clarify that I'm not saying there isn't inflation, or isn't going to be. I am only saying two things. One, that many of the predictions we made using the models we understood have not come to pass over the last twenty years. This goes for everybody, not just some ways of looking at economics. And two, that even if there is big inflation, understanding it using shoddy reasoning doesn't do anybody much good, because it isn't a repeatable strategy for the future. That's it. It is an epistemological argument, not a predictive one.
     

    DevilDocAZ

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    Good luck buying a replacement. Selling vehicles and houses right now is pretty dumb unless you plan on replacing it with a pinto and living in the hood.
    What if you own multiple houses and vehicles?

    Were they referred to as dumb 2 years ago for owning depreciating liabilities?

    The rules keep changing faster than I can learn.
     

    Hobo Hilton

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    What if you own multiple houses and vehicles?

    Were they referred to as dumb 2 years ago for owning depreciating liabilities?

    The rules keep changing faster than I can learn.
    The rules keep changing faster than I can learn.

    I have been sharing this thought with some very sharp people..... The young people do not see the "fast changing rules"..... The Baby Boomers are well in tune to the "fast changing rules".... The only rules that stay consistant are "The Laws of Nature".. Those of you with chickens and livestock understand this. You are grounded to nature. The young people get up every morning with a slate that is wiped clean and go about their day. What they did yesterday has no correlation on what they will do today.... Are any of you seeing this happening?
     

    DevilDocAZ

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    The rules keep changing faster than I can learn.

    I have been sharing this thought with some very sharp people..... The young people do not see the "fast changing rules"..... The Baby Boomers are well in tune to the "fast changing rules".... The only rules that stay consistant are "The Laws of Nature".. Those of you with chickens and livestock understand this. You are grounded to nature. The young people get up every morning with a slate that is wiped clean and go about their day. What they did yesterday has no correlation on what they will do today.... Are any of you seeing this happening?
    Idk about a “clean slate” each day.

    Even when I was a low level enlisted professional janitor I could develop a “pipeline” of shitters that still needed cleaning.

    Yeah it may sound different to have a pipeline in sales vs crops but you have to tend to the needs of the pipeline.

    What was a depreciating liability 2 years ago (cars, trucks, RV’s, travel trailers)......you can turn a profit right now if you are willing to sell. I wonder if you run the numbers on a house vs a fun car; which yields the greater ROI.
     
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    sheepdog697

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    News this morning reporting used car market prices are skyrocketing. Average $3K increase in used car prices since last year this time.

    Mentioned Toyota Tacoma earlier. It was one of the vehicles on the top of the list, retaining 78% value.

    They say Trucks, Sports Cars, and SUVs are the hot commodity.
    My lease is up on my f150 crew cab in a month. Buy out is 25,900. Cheapest I can find one used same year and miles is about 32,000 in my area. Definitely buying it out. I think the lease payment was based off of a 38k Sticker after all the rebates. So after 3.5 years and 45,000 miles it only lost 6k in value. If that’s not confusing I don’t know what is....
     

    Bigfatcock

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    Idk about a “clean slate” each day.

    Even when I was a low level enlisted professional janitor I could develop a “pipeline” of shitters that still needed cleaning.

    Yeah it may sound different to have a pipeline in sales vs crops but you have to tend to the needs of the pipeline.

    What was a depreciating liability 2 years ago (cars, trucks, RV’s, travel trailers)......you can turn a profit right now if you are willing to sell. I wonder if you run the numbers on a house vs a fun car; which yields the greater ROI.
    I mentioned it earlier in this thread. For the first time in my life, an ordinary vehicle I bought 2 years ago is worth more now than I paid for it new. Not selling it though because I can’t replace it with the same vehicle without paying all the profits and then some.

    If you look around, this chip issue is going to make available vehicles more expensive.

    Same for homes. I own multiple, but I’m not selling any because I’d spend all the profit on a similar or lesser house in today’s market.
     
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    Hobo Hilton

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    Idk about a “clean slate” each day.

    Even when I was a low level enlisted professional janitor I could develop a “pipeline” of shitters that still needed cleaning.

    Yeah it may sound different to have a pipeline in sales vs crops but you have to tend to the needs of the pipeline.

    What was a depreciating liability 2 years ago (cars, trucks, RV’s, travel trailers)......you can turn a profit right now if you are willing to sell. I wonder if you run the numbers on a house vs a fun car; which yields the greater ROI.
    The "slate" I was referring to was an IPhone...... Some of the young people I know are on that IPhone before their feet hit the floor in the morning.
     
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    Hobo Hilton

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    At harvest time we may not be seeing those 5 for $1.00 ears of corn in the grocery store. If you have a homestead / garden it may be a good idea to plant some corn. If you are going to fatten up some cattle, best lock some corn in on the future's market. The food chain will index off of corn prices.

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    Alpine 338

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    Just called around, need both 2" and 2-1/2" PVC conduit to finish my underground utilities. Called the two electrical supply houses in town, and they have zip in those two sizes. I asked when do you expect more? The answer from one was... Don't you know there's a shortage of PVC conduit? Silence from the other. I asked about price, and they said we can tell you how much we paid last time... $32 a stick for the 2".

    I then ran over to Ace Hardware as I needed CO Detector, and I scored 6-ea more 2" pieces ($23-ea), plus 500-ft of 12/2, and a couple 250' rolls of some 14/2 and 3.

    I said what the hell, grab some 15 and 20-A CB's while I'm here since they are slim pickings on the shelves.
     

    Hobo Hilton

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    Just called around, need both 2" and 2-1/2" PVC conduit to finish my underground utilities. Called the two electrical supply houses in town, and they have zip in those two sizes. I asked when do you expect more? The answer from one was... Don't you know there's a shortage of PVC conduit? Silence from the other. I asked about price, and they said we can tell you how much we paid last time... $32 a stick for the 2".

    I then ran over to Ace Hardware as I needed CO Detector, and I scored 6-ea more 2" pieces ($23-ea), plus 500-ft of 12/2, and a couple 250' rolls of some 14/2 and 3.

    I said what the hell, grab some 15 and 20-A CB's while I'm here since they are slim pickings on the shelves.
    I give you credit.... You are aware of the situation and are adapting and improvising.... You are nearing the "bartering stage" of procuring the commodities you need.... Relating to the reply you got from the supply house guys. The next reply will be "We could not get that for you at any price".... Plan ahead.
     
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    Alpine 338

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    I called the next closest electrical supply place, 3.5- hours away (one way).
    They have some but it's super pricey: $41.90 for 2.5".
     

    Hobo Hilton

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    I gauge inflation by the price of gold .
    You posted that about 48 days ago. It got my attention so I have been carefully watching different things.... To a degree, I agree with you.... But over the past 7 weeks I have been more in tune to some basic commodities (food related). Like many other's, world wide, I too watch gold. It's really expensive to get some physical gold in my hand. I'm thinking the spot prices of gold are related to paper gold... While the financial world is focused on Gold / USD the rest of the world is focusing on corn, wheat, soy beans and cotton. Just how things look from my little corner of the world.
     

    DevilDocAZ

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    You posted that about 48 days ago. It got my attention so I have been carefully watching different things.... To a degree, I agree with you.... But over the past 7 weeks I have been more in tune to some basic commodities (food related). Like many other's, world wide, I too watch gold. It's really expensive to get some physical gold in my hand. I'm thinking the spot prices of gold are related to paper gold... While the financial world is focused on Gold / USD the rest of the world is focusing on corn, wheat, soy beans and cotton. Just how things look from my little corner of the world.

    Gold. LOL.

    I don’t remember a single McDonald’s accepting gold coins in Hurricane Katrina but last week I couldn’t buy $23 worth of goods with a $50 bill.

    They say stick to what you know. I KNOW I can get a LOT of favors in the hood, ANY HOOD for a fresh pair of Dead Stock Jordan 1’s. You guys would do darn near anything for LB of H4350 and 1k of Primers.

    Get a man who values gold to do some
    Labor. 😂🤣😂 rich guys don’t do work.

    Meanwhile im watching things in the closet major city near me....


    3959F2DB-C4DA-427D-8910-F140E6EFE4C1.jpeg

    But but....there’s no housing.

    D7E096CD-5EC4-4626-AE07-79F53F476C13.jpeg


    Again. I feel like I’m being lied to on the daily, because the rules Keep Changing.
     

    Hobo Hilton

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    We have some discussions going about "Rules Changing"... Sent funds to my brokerage fund... Two weeks later a check for that amount arrived in my mail box. They could not deposit the funds due to the rules changing and no one informing me. However they knew my name and mailing address in order to return the funds.... Working from home ain't working for some of the largest companies in America.....

    Two booming markets here in the USA = Propaganda and promoting the "Boogey Man".....
     
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    Hobo Hilton

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    Today the Federal Reserve "Sat on their Hands".....​

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    Choid

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    You posted that about 48 days ago. It got my attention so I have been carefully watching different things.... To a degree, I agree with you.... But over the past 7 weeks I have been more in tune to some basic commodities (food related). Like many other's, world wide, I too watch gold. It's really expensive to get some physical gold in my hand. I'm thinking the spot prices of gold are related to paper gold... While the financial world is focused on Gold / USD the rest of the world is focusing on corn, wheat, soy beans and cotton. Just how things look from my little corner of the world.
    That's not exactly right, and frankly it is the same method of analysis you always use. viz I see information out there, but I am only going to concentrate on the information that points to what I already believe. It is, frankly, intellectual poverty. Gold simply reflects what investors think inflation will look like over the next time period. Arbitrage markets are generally efficient enough so that spot and paper are reflecting the same things, but if anything, they will overprice gold over time. This idea that there is some bifurcated group one (wrong) one looking at gold and one (right) one looking at other commodities is kind of nuts. Commodity trading tends to be multiline, so you are talking about a mostly the same people, though there are certainly people doing extra hedging in the food markets. Anyway, looking at a bunch of data and deciding only the data that agrees with you is worthwhile is how people lose money.

    ETA: No spot market is a good inflation indicator. The R^2 on them tends to be like .02-.08. Gold is better than others, but still not good.
     

    squib

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    You posted that about 48 days ago. It got my attention so I have been carefully watching different things.... To a degree, I agree with you.... But over the past 7 weeks I have been more in tune to some basic commodities (food related). Like many other's, world wide, I too watch gold. It's really expensive to get some physical gold in my hand. I'm thinking the spot prices of gold are related to paper gold... While the financial world is focused on Gold / USD the rest of the world is focusing on corn, wheat, soy beans and cotton. Just how things look from my little corner of the world.
    I have a long time horizon on physical gold.
     
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    Drago6

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    There are some used autos/trucks priced and selling for almost as much as a new 2021 model. An example. I've been looking for a Toyota Tacoma Truck for about a year or so now, and I'm seeing four or five year old models with mileage between 50-70K selling for as much as $33-36K. You can buy a new one for $35-36K, and that's matching feature for feature. Yes I know, there a cult following with Tacos, but it makes no sense to me.

    Makes more sense to me to buy a new one with zero miles for an extra $2K.

    I'm planning on selling my 2019 F150, it's an awesome truck but i miss having a beater, i really have no "need" for such a feature rich/expensive truck

    Looking at what used ones are selling for an it's crazy

    Need to get it listed ASAP
     

    DevilDocAZ

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    I'm planning on selling my 2019 F150, it's an awesome truck but i miss having a beater, i really have no "need" for such a feature rich/expensive truck

    Looking at what used ones are selling for an it's crazy

    Need to get it listed ASAP

    Filled up my old Ferd Ranch Truck. Dual Tanks, $101 today.

    Sometimes them fuel sipping Purdy shiny trucks look appealing.

    Then I remember:
    -vehicle payment
    -increased insurance
    -increased registration
    -asset depreciation

    And I smile about the $ I didn’t have to spend
     

    Hobo Hilton

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    Filled up my old Ferd Ranch Truck. Dual Tanks, $101 today.

    Sometimes them fuel sipping Purdy shiny trucks look appealing.

    Then I remember:
    -vehicle payment
    -increased insurance
    -increased registration
    -asset depreciation

    And I smile about the $ I didn’t have to spend
    I think the most prudent thing to do is to simply "maintain" what you have.... Vehicles, food, house / shelter... the human body is the most important thing to maintain now.
     

    DarnYankeeUSMC

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    Looks like Warren Buffet and the other big money players are are seeing inflation and talking about it.
    Now that the USA is $31 trillion in debt and Pedo Jo's puppeteers want to spend another $6 trillion dollars how is the fed going to raise rates to curb inflation?
    They can't afford to service the interest on the debt as it is.
     

    Hobo Hilton

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    Looks like Warren Buffet and the other big money players are are seeing inflation and talking about it.
    Now that the USA is $31 trillion in debt and Pedo Jo's puppeteers want to spend another $6 trillion dollars how is the fed going to raise rates to curb inflation?
    They can't afford to service the interest on the debt as it is.
    True.... This is a concerning situation. It has repeated itself many times through out history. The majority of the time, the country collapses. It is appearing that Jerome Powell, and the Federal Reserve, has taken the position of "Not my Circus, Not my Monkeys". Fairly obvious that throwing money at the problem has only made things worse.
     
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    DarnYankeeUSMC

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    Ohh but GDP!! It's only a fraction of the GDP they say.
    If you have to borrow money to pay your bills and can only pay the interest on your debt I don't think there's a bank on the planet that will loan you money. Who's buying our debt right now? The taxpayers!
    True.... This is a concerning situation. It has repeated itself many times through out history. The majority of the time, the country collapses. It is appearing that Jerome Powell, and the Federal Reserve, has taken the position of "Not my Circus, Not my Monkeys". Fairly obvious that throwing money at the problem has only made things worse.
     

    Choid

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    Looks like Warren Buffet and the other big money players are are seeing inflation and talking about it.
    Now that the USA is $31 trillion in debt and Pedo Jo's puppeteers want to spend another $6 trillion dollars how is the fed going to raise rates to curb inflation?
    They can't afford to service the interest on the debt as it is.
    Have we entered the realm of parody now? First of all, the US can service any dollar denominated debt. That is not in question. The only question is the future cost of borrowing more.

    And complaining out of one side of your mouth about inflation and the other about raising rates is going FULL RETARD. Don't you people yet understand that fiscal policy has about 5% as much influence on inflation as monetary policy? I am guessing not. It isn't a fucking secret if you can read, or if you have bothered to go to school.
     

    Choid

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    Hey, I know. How about we make the minimum wage $20 per hour.
    You are talking about a third issue, then, which is policy based inflation. Look, when you are talking about the prices of goods and services, the supply of money to the system is the biggest driver of inflation. That is why fed policy is so important, and why it is seen as the sharpest tool.

    Minimum wage can be inflationary, but only in the presence of high demand, generally high demand driven by expansive monetary policy. Without significant demand, it ceases to be inflationary, and becomes a strong driver of increased unemployment. Think of it this way, people will only stay employed at $20/hour if they are worth it. The easiest way to "make" them worth it is to keep rates low and money supply high. Otherwise, unemployment. Initially in black youth, then coming into to the gen pop. Notice what is not a driver in this scenario -- deficits. Now, a high minimum wage can drive deficits, because it can increase unemployment and other benefits because of what it does to employment in general.

    You might think I think a $20 minimum wage is a good idea. I think no minimum wage is a good idea. It just has a limited effect on inflation absent other inflationary tactics. What it does more directly is decrease demand for cheap labor, which can have many different effects, including deflationary since the marginal propensity to consume is highest in minimum wage communities, so it could just as easily have a cascading effect on demand.
     

    DarnYankeeUSMC

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    Minimum wage will always be the minimum wage. Whether it's ten dollars or fifty dollars inflation will adjust to it.
    The supply of money to the system is what is driving inflation. Printing monopoly money and keeping interest rates down is a fake economy. It's the reason Bernie Madoff was in prison.
     
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    BuildingConceptsllc

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    There are some other commodities that are reacting the same way. May have something to do with the export markets.
    It has something to do with our idiot state dept. Allowing canadian companies to buy our American lumber mills and some spruce supply issues from Canada.

    And of course,massive inflation, which commodities that move quickly like lumber and groceries show it before other things, we just have covid and supply chain issues that sent it skyrocketing first.
     
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    thestoicmarcusaurelius

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    Does anyone remember reading about what happened after the first minimum wage was enacted in the US?

    In the 40’s, inflation immediately made the minimum wage irrelevant.

    Also, black unemployment had at times been lower than white unemployment before the first minimum wage and after the opposite has generally been true.
     
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    thestoicmarcusaurelius

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    It has something to do with our idiot state dept. Allowing canadian companies to buy our American lumber mills and some spruce supply issues from Canada.

    And of course,massive inflation, which commodities that move quickly like lumber and groceries show it before other things, we just have covid and supply chain issues that sent it skyrocketing first.
    Good points.

    I just don’t see this resolving itself quickly without additional firms entering the market with significant capacity.

    When the conditions are low inventory and low interest rates, the market is going to get over heated. Now if interest rates go up then I think this bubble is going to burst again. I don’t see it that much differently as what happened in 07-08. Just this time, instead of buying mortgage backed securities, the big boys are buying the actual homes instead.

    Even with the housing market the way it is, still probably a better time to buy than during the late 80’s with interest rates of 18%
     
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    Hobo Hilton

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    It has something to do with our idiot state dept. Allowing canadian companies to buy our American lumber mills and some spruce supply issues from Canada.

    And of course,massive inflation, which commodities that move quickly like lumber and groceries show it before other things, we just have covid and supply chain issues that sent it skyrocketing first.
    In looking back through history.... There is always some "event" that leads to the Fall of an Empire. Similar to the first domino that falls.... In America's case, that domino could well be the virus. Of course there has been mismanagement of our Government prior to the virus, a given. The Government's response to the virus has been to throw money at the problem, in one form or another. As long as worker's are getting more government money to stay home rather than go out and get a job..... The fall will continue.
     

    Hobo Hilton

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    It has something to do with our idiot state dept. Allowing canadian companies to buy our American lumber mills and some spruce supply issues from Canada.

    And of course,massive inflation, which commodities that move quickly like lumber and groceries show it before other things, we just have covid and supply chain issues that sent it skyrocketing first.
    I have spent many years in the Western US. For a time I was maintaining / building logging equipment. Long ago the forest were managed by people / businesses who's lively hood was derived from the forest. I remember "clear cutting" vividly. It was an ancient method of fighting wild land fires. The West has been in a drought for several years. Clear cutting would assist in managing the fires that will occur this summer as well as create jobs and generate revenue for local communities. We will lose more timber this summer than clear cutting would have ever harvested.
     

    E. Bryant

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    Even with the housing market the way it is, still probably a better time to buy than during the late 80’s with interest rates of 18%

    What's gonna be hilarious is when Average Joe goes to sell a house that he bought with a 3.25% mortgage and then finds out how much less it's worth to a market that's borrowing at 8% or 10% or 12% or whatever one's crystal ball suggests that the rates might rebound to at some future date.

    Might not happen at all, either; there is no law requiring that rates revert to the post-WWII mean. But if this does happen, the collective temper tantrum will be epic.
     

    E. Bryant

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    It’s an odd phenomenon what has happened in the last 15 years to have such low interest rates and such high stimulus and not have rampant inflation. Very confusing to say the least.

    Wages have been suppressed, we outsourced everything that can fit into a shopping container, and every last bit of friction was ruthlessly eliminated.

    On that latter point, the past few years have resulted in friction finding its way back into the economy. And since so many people in charge of government and industry don't really understand how things like supply chains work ("what do you mean we can't build trucks without semiconductors?!?"), it may be monumentally difficult or downright impossible to get back to where we were.
     
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    E. Bryant

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    I have spent many years in the Western US. For a time I was maintaining / building logging equipment. Long ago the forest were managed by people / businesses who's lively hood was derived from the forest. I remember "clear cutting" vividly. It was an ancient method of fighting wild land fires. The West has been in a drought for several years. Clear cutting would assist in managing the fires that will occur this summer as well as create jobs and generate revenue for local communities. We will lose more timber this summer than clear cutting would have ever harvested.

    Go cut all the timber you wish. There aren't enough drivers right now to get it out of the forest. Everything is fucked, including our ability to move stuff. We took this for granted, and it turns out not to be a natural right but rather a business process that takes thought and planning.
     

    Choid

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    Wages have been suppressed, we outsourced everything that can fit into a shopping container, and every last bit of friction was ruthlessly eliminated.

    On that latter point, the past few years have resulted in friction finding its way back into the economy. And since so many people in charge of government and industry don't really understand how things like supply chains work ("what do you mean we can't build trucks without semiconductors?!?"), it may be monumentally difficult or downright impossible to get back to where we were.
    It's not just that, and I wouldn't call them "suppressed" as much as there has been more supply in the production side at a lower price. Suppressed implies an artificial constraint. And, despite hardships felt by some individuals and groups, the net to our country has been positive. Not exclusively so, but positive enough that we have been able to sustain cheap money and stimulus without inflation. Inefficiency isn't a feature, it is still a bug.

    And again, in many ways the premise of this thread and the premise of a post like this are in direct contradiction. If we assume that the Biden administration is more friendly to china and offshoring than the last, we would assume that these frictions would once again lessen, and that we would see further disinflation.

    But they aren't the whole story. Workers here and abroad have gotten more efficient due to technology gains. That will no doubt continue with less time wasted in travel etc. We also have an entire basket of basically deflationary items that play an increasingly large part in the budget of the average person. Remember, also, we are no longer a rural nation, while this is a predominately rural message board, and not only does CPI look exclusively at the urban consumer, but the urban consumer IS different from many of the experiences here.
     

    Choid

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    It’s an odd phenomenon what has happened in the last 15 years to have such low interest rates and such high stimulus and not have rampant inflation. Very confusing to say the least.
    It's a conundrum for sure. There are some explanations, but the most prudent way to understand that information is to realize that the understanding we have had of a lot of these forces has been way off. And not just regarding inflation. If you look at the anemic power of fiscal stimulus in '09, you see we had basically misjudged that a lot as well. The two go together, as fiscal stimulus is nothing more than reflation, and we weren't able to accomplish it even when we tried our hardest.