Interesting read on the housing market.

[Maggot]

As well as rising supply, here is the key take away, and it gets much worse if the Fed continues to raise the prime. Thats supposed to happen later this month. Since Dec. payments went up $700 p/month. Forecast says .75% and perhaps and another .5% in Sept.

====================

Soon after mortgage rates spiked this spring, the housing market slipped into a "housing correction." It's easy to see how those higher rates priced out many would-be buyers. If a borrower in December took out a $500,000 mortgage at a 3.1% rate, they'd owe a monthly principal and interest payment of $2,135. If a borrower took out a $500,000 mortgage at today's average 30-year fixed mortgage rate (5.51%), they'd get a $2,839 payment.

===========================

Housing market enters into recession—here's what to expect ...​

https://fortune.com › 2022/07/20 › housing-market-ent...



10 hours ago — Nationally, Moody's Analytics expects year-over-year home price growth to be at 0%. However, if a recession hits, Moody's Analytics predicts

 

[nso123]

As well as rising supply, here is the key take away, and it gets much worse if the Fed continues to raise the prime. Thats supposed to happen later this month. Since Dec. payments went up $700 p/month. Forecast says .75% and perhaps and another .5% in Sept.

====================

Soon after mortgage rates spiked this spring, the housing market slipped into a "housing correction." It's easy to see how those higher rates priced out many would-be buyers. If a borrower in December took out a $500,000 mortgage at a 3.1% rate, they'd owe a monthly principal and interest payment of $2,135. If a borrower took out a $500,000 mortgage at today's average 30-year fixed mortgage rate (5.51%), they'd get a $2,839 payment.

===========================

Housing market enters into recession—here's what to expect ...​

https://fortune.com › 2022/07/20 › housing-market-ent...



10 hours ago — Nationally, Moody's Analytics expects year-over-year home price growth to be at 0%. However, if a recession hits, Moody's Analytics predicts

And just think of all the folks who bought with an ARM again, even after seeing what happened in 08.

 

[hollowoutadime]

Those with a ARMs are going to get hit big time come adjustment time.
Expect foreclosures.

 

[gigamortis]

Its going to cost them and ARM just to make their increased mortgage payments!

 

[hlee]

Who the fuck takes out an adjustable rate mortgage?

 

[Mike Casselton]

Who the fuck takes out an adjustable rate mortgage?

Dumb mofos

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Unfortunately, home buyer's have been letting their guard down after watching the US Government spare so many people from evictions and poor financial choices. We have two young generations who have never been evicted and have had their student loans forgiven.
With poor planning their final plan of "Hope" being a Unicorn, many are heading back to Ma Ma's spare bedroom.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Who the fuck takes out an adjustable rate mortgage?

PT Barnum answered that long ago.

 

[MtnCreek]

Who the fuck takes out an adjustable rate mortgage?

Not all properties qualify for typical fixed rate financing.

 

[Mr. Z]

Those with a ARMs are going to get hit big time come adjustment time.
Expect foreclosures.

You spelled “future rental property investments for non tards” wrong.

I’m seeing a bunch of dumps with peeling paint on rotten wood siding with a porch about to fall off coming up for sale around here (SW WI).

 

[PatMiles]

... use it as a rental when the people that lose their ass need a decent place to stay.

Go into that with eyes WIDE open! The majority of the people that lose their ass did so because they are not real smart, people that are not real smart tend to not take care of rentals and it will be hard to evict them before they completely trash a house that doesn't belong to them.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

You spelled “future rental property investments for non tards” wrong.

I’m seeing a bunch of dumps with peeling paint on rotten wood siding with a porch about to fall off coming up for sale around here (SW WI).

I’ll wait until the bottom falls out and buy one to gut over the winter and use it as a rental when the people that lose their ass need a decent place to stay.

How are those people going to pay the rent ?

 

[Mr. Z]

Who said I’d be taking section 8 trash?

When +20% of a local population is in a rental market and you add in the fact that you can sift through trash, as well as write into the contract whatever a lawyer sees fit as a rental agreement, you can afford to be picky.

The ones who lose their shirts will be going into shitty apartments, not single family homes.

And yes, obviously the numbers have to work before you end up on the other end.

Typical income on single family rentals in this area is 15-20% a year.

If none of that works and they still owe me money, they can “work it off” $20 at a time

 

[Maggot]

Go into that with eyes WIDE open! The majority of the people that lose their ass did so because they are not real smart, people that are not real smart tend to not take care of rentals and it will be hard to evict them before they completely trash a house that doesn't belong to them.

Exactly, better to do an owner finance with 20% down and a 5 year balloon.

 

[KZP]

Black Rock waiting for massive foreclosure sales​

 

[Wizard1183]

You spelled “future rental property investments for non tards” wrong.

I’m seeing a bunch of dumps with peeling paint on rotten wood siding with a porch about to fall off coming up for sale around here (SW WI).

I’ll wait until the bottom falls out and buy one to gut over the winter and use it as a rental when the people that lose their ass need a decent place to stay.

Ill be buying SEVERAL. But if you dont have a career? Theres an underpass or a homeless shelter for you. No sympathy for the retarded

 

[Maggot]

Ill be buying SEVERAL. But if you dont have a career? Theres an underpass or a homeless shelter for you. No sympathy for the retarded

Just remember its easier to get them in, than out. Theres a good joke in that staement, somewhere.

 

[Wizard1183]

Just remember its easier to get them in, than out. Theres a good joke in that staement, somewhere.

I know it is that’s why I say career oriented or have a career. Cause I’m not allowing shitbags to ruin my homes I buy. Cause I’m the type of guy i can’t get you out? I’ll burn my damn house down and collect the insurance from it. But one way or another? You gettin out

 

[theLBC]

i am selling now, and may wait to see what happens before i buy something else.

 

[Mr. Z]

I know it is that’s why I say career oriented or have a career. Cause I’m not allowing shitbags to ruin my homes I buy. Cause I’m the type of guy i can’t get you out? I’ll burn my damn house down and collect the insurance from it. But one way or another? You gettin out

“Jewish “

 

[Wizard1183]

“Jewish “

Hey why should I suffer to allow a piece of shit to ruin what I paid for without consequences? They’re not held liable. They don’t have money. What are you going to get them for? Sue them? For what? They already don’t have anything and you won’t get any money from them. That or I’ll just destroy the AC system. That’ll get em out. I’ll say time to go, it’s inhabitable.

 

[plong]

Meh... gross oversimplification combined with rather lazy journalism (shocker...) at best... Certian markets in this country have always felt compelled to overbuild at the slightest provocation (looking squarely at you Atlanta, among others...). Their supply/demand curve looks very-much like a sine wave.

The underlying demographics clearly show that the US housing market remains grossly under-supplied, by at least 2 million units. The real question remains: can you produce housing that someone wants to buy at a price they can/choose to afford...? With entitlement fees approaching$40K in many markets, and significantly more in some, before one even breaks ground, the answer is, increasingly, a firm NO!

 

[BuildingConceptsllc]

i am selling now, and may wait to see what happens before i buy something else.

That's what we did. Sold rental property at the highest point and did well and will pay the taxes now, as they are almost guaranteed to be more in the near future. Sit in cash and when the shit really hits, buy up some property on the cheap that you don't have to have a big payment on. Rent it out to good tenants who have careers or fix it up and sell it after holding it for a while. There will be opportunities if you have the cash

 

[Wizard1183]

Plenty! Hell even the stock market will triple or quadruple your investment in a shorter amount of time than a home. But if buying a home? Use the gubments money to do. Not yours. Hold your cash. Maybe throw the 20-30% down. That way you can buy several houses on the cheap

 

[Maggot]

Hey why should I suffer to allow a piece of shit to ruin what I paid for without consequences? They’re not held liable. They don’t have money. What are you going to get them for? Sue them? For what? They already don’t have anything and you won’t get any money from them. That or I’ll just destroy the AC system. That’ll get em out. I’ll say time to go, it’s inhabitable.

Burning it, as you suggested a few posts back will land you in jail. They know about those tricks.

Wrecking the AC will get you sued and youll still have to replace it if it was working when you and they signed the lease.

 

[Mister Ridge]

For those of you talking about buying rental properties, what are your thoughts when it comes to another scamdemic and another eviction moratorium?

 

[Wizard1183]

Yes I understand how it works. The less fortunate get handed everything and the successful get fucked. However sorry. I refuse to get fucked. Where there’s a will? There’s a way!

 

[Wizard1183]

For those of you talking about buying rental properties, what are your thoughts when it comes to another scamdemic and another eviction moratorium?

That’s the main reason I never got into real estate. I was about to pull the trigger on a 4plex. Then Covid happens. So GLAD I didn’t pull the trigger. However the stock market tripled my money in a matter of 4 months. I sold all my apple shares in January 2020 and held liquid til mid March 2020. Turned $99k into 280k in 4 months. I assure you there’s no real estate on the planet that will yield that amount. Now of course the brokers were slapping me saying you can’t liquidate. Fuck you. You lose I win.

 

[theLBC]

That's what we did. Sold rental property at the highest point and did well and will pay the taxes now, as they are almost guaranteed to be more in the near future. Sit in cash and when the shit really hits, buy up some property on the cheap that you don't have to have a big payment on. Rent it out to good tenants who have careers or fix it up and sell it after holding it for a while. There will be opportunities if you have the cash

i only have the primary residence (but it did double in "value" in the 8 years i have owned it).
my advisor thinks i should rent for at least 6 months to see where the market goes. could drop a lot with another interest hike.
it still irks me to think of paying $2k a month to rent though...so not sure...
i might move off the coast (i live in a marina of sorts) to free america, maybe AZ or NV where it is cheaper, but i won't know anyone.

 

[BuildingConceptsllc]

i only have the primary residence (but it did double in "value" in the 8 years i have owned it).
my advisor thinks i should rent for at least 6 months to see where the market goes. could drop a lot with another interest hike.
it still irks me to think of paying $2k a month to rent though...so not sure...
i might move off the coast (i live in a marina of sorts) to free america, maybe AZ or NV where it is cheaper, but i won't know anyone.

Well certain markets will likely ne effected differently due to the amount of the market that is still undeserved, and the amount of population movement from NE amd NW to South East and other not Blue areas. With the huge changes in working remotely + all of the liberal insanity, there is and has been some shifting. That may help some areas like the South East get through this forced economic downturn in the short run, and will jack up land values and housing prices to a certain extent over the medium term as well in these areas, so just consider these things in your decision. Can't put a price on not living among liberal fruit cakes though....

 

[Wizard1183]

You’re realtor? They don’t know shit. A realtor isn’t some educated Einstein. That’s like asking a stock market analyst for advice. The advice they give you might be good? But they know as much as you at predictions. Remember that.

 

[theLBC]

Well certain markets will likely ne effected differently due to the amount of the market that is still undeserved, and the amount of population movement from NE amd NW to South East and other not Blue areas. With the huge changes in working remotely + all of the liberal insanity, there is and has been some shifting. That may help some areas like the South East get through this forced economic downturn in the short run, and will jack up land values and housing prices to a certain extent over the medium term as well in these areas, so just consider these things in your decision. Can't put a price on not living among liberal fruit cakes though....

the thing is, i already live in a mostly conservative area (people that pay taxes).
the idea that the entire state is liberal is a result of the dems stealing elections.
ballot harvesting is legal.
dems can vote for republicans in the primaries to eliminate real threats.
we can have dem vs dem in the final election.
california isn't liberal, it was stolen by liberals.

 

[BuildingConceptsllc]

the thing is, i already live in a mostly conservative area (people that pay taxes).
the idea that the entire state is liberal is a result of the dems stealing elections.
ballot harvesting is legal.
dems can vote for republicans in the primaries to eliminate real threats.
we can have dem vs dem in the final election.
california isn't liberal, it was stolen by liberals.

Yeah, I know that's true mostly, as i have some friends that live in Orange County that have a business there. The trouble is that, you largely still have to live with the rules and illegality that they prescribe, and the results of those things ect. I know that there are tons of really great people there, who love this country and its way of life as much as any of us.

 

[TheGerman]

We go for walks in the McMansion neighborhood they built behind us and I always look around asking which house do I eventually want to buy.

The 'value' of our house has gone up 300% in the last 2 years. Real estate in our area is California levels of absurd. You can't get a rental. There were times where a house would list and sell by noon the same day. I have retards living 1 over from us that built and ran out of money along the way 5-6 times.

There is no way when housing prices come back to where they should be, that a lot of these people are going to either want to/be able to pay that $2M mortgage on that now 560k house.

I don't even feel bad for them and instead, will offer them 350k for it before they are thrown out.

I've already started making a formula in an attempt to figure out what I can absolutely lowball people with to where the bank would be paid, yet the sellers would just take a total bath; basically a 0 equity sale the bank would approve.

Unfortunately, most of them are going to be $2m mortgages, with little to no down and 1-2 years of next to no principle payments on a house that wouldn't appraise for half of that. So foreclosure sales may be what I have to wait for, but those usually take years before the banks get to them.

 

[Kinetic Moose]

Who the fuck takes out an adjustable rate mortgage?

my brother in law, cause reading fine print isn't in his DNA, his rates steady rising and he said they locked it, can't go above 5%... thinking the snake oil salesman got him good, but hey, he went for the cheap ticket and now gotta pay....

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Who the fuck takes out an adjustable rate mortgage?

1) Young people who never lived through a recession.
2) Buyers who have enough cash to pay for the property in full.... They rolled the dice. If the FED dumps a ton of USD's into the housing market or some other unheard of scheme, these buyers could come out on top. The financial world is upside down. As during the Volcker years, CD's were paying more than some adjustable mortgages.
Interesting times.

 

[DukeGSP]

let's not forget about the morons who "took advantage" of this high housing market with a refinance. pulled out all of their "equity". that'll be the last refi for a while.....

 

[bobbyenoha]

If we consider whether it is worth taking out a mortgage, the answer is yes. It's worth it, especially if you do it while the rates are minimal. If taking a mortgage is compared with renting a place, the benefits of the second option turn out to be illusory. Over the 10-12 years you spend to save money, real estate prices will increase — they are growing steadily. But to close the mortgage on time, you need to receive additional earnings. As for me, I chose to release equity from a house I already owned for that -- the Equity Release Lincoln option, so to speak.