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New Ammunition plant to open manufacturing primers

My question is ... Will this be a whole new brand of primers, or will they manufacture as an OEM and build under one of the existing primer brands (CCI, Federal, Winchester, etc.)? Anybody know the answer to that?
 
Call me cautiously optimistic. When a new company watches primers sell for $100/1k what reason do they have to bring their product to market significantly cheaper?
 
Either way, if they can increase supply it should help bring the prices down some. I doubt we’ll see $35 per 1k again but maybe we can get close.

We are seeing primers in the shelf locally again. Not everywhere, but they are coming in large enough quantities that they’re not sold out in a day.
 
My question is ... Will this be a whole new brand of primers, or will they manufacture as an OEM and build under one of the existing primer brands (CCI, Federal, Winchester, etc.)? Anybody know the answer to that?
It appears to me to be a whole new brand of things.
 
Call me cautiously optimistic. When a new company watches primers sell for $100/1k what reason do they have to bring their product to market significantly cheaper?
They don't, but eventually more availability will start to drive prices back to reasonable levels. If demand is always high and supply is always low, high prices and low availability will continue. That cycle breaks either by more availability, or a revolt on pricing (which probably won't happen).
 
That will be a tough row to hoe ... but at least provide options for beginners and bulk reloaders. I think experienced handloaders will have a "Wait and See" attitude on any new brand. We shall see ...
Just based on what I could find online they are trying to become a market disruptor (which is a good thing). What I wonder is where the money is coming from. Depending on that, they could easily achieve the goal.

From their history they have made lots of training ammo including a lot of remanufactured stuff. Obviously a primer won't be remanufactured but it appears like (traditionally) they have gone for the middle of the pack kind of products. I have never heard of them until this thread but it seems like they are not after the premium market.

This move to make primers though moves them from an ammo manufacturer to a component manufacturer, which is a welcome sight as far as I am concerned.
 
Well No one invests $100 Million into a company if they don't expect to make money.
Yeah I get it, they're gonna make hay while the sun shines. But if this new addition to the market means I can buy 1k primers from Midway for $120 everyday instead of 1k/$120 every three days, as far as I'm concerned nothing has been gained.
 
what reason do they have to bring their product to market significantly cheaper?

Primers are not expensive now because it costs that much more to produce them. Personally I think a whole lot of the consolidation in the components space is the ultimate root cause here. You can make anything go up in price if you can control 80% of the supply.
 
Yeah I get it, they're gonna make hay while the sun shines. But if this new addition to the market means I can buy 1k primers from Midway for $120 everyday instead of 1k/$120 every three days, as far as I'm concerned nothing has been gained.
And that means I won't buy 1k primers for $120 any day. Only the rich or people who love to get hosed buy at those prices.
 
Primers are not expensive now because it costs that much more to produce them. Personally I think a whole lot of the consolidation in the components space is the ultimate root cause here. You can make anything go up in price if you can control 80% of the supply.
Not expensive? Did you just start reloading?
 
And that means I won't buy 1k primers for $120 any day. Only the rich or people who love to get hosed buy at those prices.
Agreed. I could afford to buy my normal quantity now that they're regularly available, I just refuse to because I shoot for fun and when my ammo cost doubles in a year while my income doesn't, it's not fun anymore.
 
Yeah I get it, they're gonna make hay while the sun shines. But if this new addition to the market means I can buy 1k primers from Midway for $120 everyday instead of 1k/$120 every three days, as far as I'm concerned nothing has been gained.
(Disclaimer: I think retailers are the ones doing the exploiting right now, at least more than the manufacturers.)

High prices encourage others to get in the game and make money... As soon as enough companies get in the game and supply begins to meet the demand, prices have to start falling.

Brand A is selling at $120

Brand B opens and starts selling for $119

Brand C opens up and starts selling for $118

Brand D says I can do it for $117

As soon as you get enough people producing enough merchandise to meet or exceed demand then competition kicks in and prices start to fall.

Mike
 
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And that means I won't buy 1k primers for $120 any day. Only the rich or people who love to get hosed buy at those prices.
You’ll have to in the very near future because of hyperinflation is on the way. One day that will look like a great price when primers hit $200 per 1000
 
I'd look to Powder Valley for a baseline on new prices. Those guys never price gouge; typically they're a cost+profit margin type company (unlike others).

Just at a quick glance, $75 per 1000 seems to be the new normal for the near term.

ETA: IIRC, this was how CCI got started. Wartime shortages prompted them to step up and satisfy commercial/civilian demands...

The issue is, is that the ammunition community has gotten to be a coordinated monopoly, where companies agree to certain actions/prices to aggressively kill the small guys when they get big enough to pose a market threat.
 
Caveat emptor

 
And that means I won't buy 1k primers for $120 any day. Only the rich or people who love to get hosed buy at those prices.
So primers went from 40 bucks a brick to 120 a brick that means 80.00 divided by 1000 is 8 cents a primer more than the good ole days. So you are saying that since your reloads went from 1.00 a round to 1.08 a round that's a no go? No more shooting?
 
So you are saying that since your reloads went from 1.00 a round to 1.08 a round that's a no go? No more shooting?
I don't know about anyone else's loads but my 55gr 223 loads went from $175 ish per 1k to almost $300 with a moderate powder price increase and the huge primer cost increase. That's significant for me.
 
Primer Lives Matter...

In all seriousness, primers have nearly doubled in cost, with premium (Match) primers tripling. I think prices will drop. Certainly not to the old $35-$40 per 100, but I can't see $70 per 1000 of (crappy) Winchester primers lasting long. I'd venture to guess prices will drop down to somewhere around $55 per 100.

BTW, has anyone ever seen/used the Winchester "Match" primers yet?
 
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not so much price fixing as the reality of raw materials will continue to rise in cost. The cost of manufacturing continues to rise as more and more regualtions have to be adhered to along with the high cost of insurance, utilites, workmans comp, etc. If you've never owned your own business , you don't have a clue. I highly doubt you'll ever see anything much below $75 again. Get used to it. Bitch or shoot, the choice is yours.
 
not so much price fixing as the reality of raw materials will continue to rise in cost. The cost of manufacturing continues to rise as more and more regualtions have to be adhered to along with the high cost of insurance, utilites, workmans comp, etc. If you've never owned your own business , you don't have a clue. I highly doubt you'll ever see anything much below $75 again. Get used to it. Bitch or shoot, the choice is yours.
You don't have to own your own business to have a clue. There's a ton of professional business men who have a clue that don't own their own businesses. This isn't the first time prices have skyrocketed for commodities. While I agree that it may not land where it was, there's no real indicators that prices will permanently settle multiple factors above where they were.
 
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This seems to indicate otherwise?

Demand will continue to exceed supply, but not because we're still buying at panic levels.

This article is an interesting read on the subject:


It was posted earlier on the hide. It's written by someone completely outside the firearms industry, so with no ties to Vista or Olin.

TLDR: The industry is now consolidated enough that we're not likely to see ammo prices go back to normal without some sort of major shakeup.

With only two companies controlling nearly all domestic manufacturing, they can manipulate production to keep prices high (by restricting supply), and they've been open about that with investors. There's plenty of incentive for them to maintain the perception of a shortage to keep margins high, and basically none for them to go back to pre-pandemic levels of inventory surplus.

A few quotes from the CEO of Vista that paint the picture pretty well:

"Because of some of the consolidation we've done with Remington, even if you look long term, we don't see the same type of price compression the industry may have experienced in previous times."

"Now with ammunition being the largest part of our business. I mean, clearly, buying a Remington, we've created what we feel like is an even more disciplined industry now as we go forward. We've got, I think, like competitors in the sense that they watch growth, they watch their margin profiles. And we feel like we've got a disciplined industry."

And I've mentioned previously that we studied, as best we can…industry capacity and making sure that we're not only managing our capacity, but very mindful of what's being brought into the industry, so we don't get over our skis, if you will."

By getting over their skis, he's talking about ending up in a situation where production is too high and is negatively impacting their margins by causing prices to drop. Meaning enough of a surplus that ammo is sitting on the shelves. If you can charge 100% more for something, you only have to make half as much of it. And if that creates a perception of shortage, even better because it increases turnover.

We've spend 2 years teaching the industry that we are willing to pay as much as 200-300% more that we were a few years ago for ammo and reloading components. We shouldn't expect them to forget that.
 
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Primer Lives Matter...

In all seriousness, primers have nearly doubled in cost, with premium (Match) primers tripling. I think prices will drop. Certainly not to the old $35-$40 per 100, but I can't see $70 per 1000 of (crappy) Winchester primers lasting long. I'd venture to guess prices will drop down to somewhere around $55 per 100.

BTW, has anyone ever seen/used the Winchester "Match" primers yet?
At this point the doubled cost of primers is only half the problem. Ordering 1-2k at a time and paying shipping/hazmat for them combined with the price increase has effectively quadrupled the price. That may not be a big deal for people that shoot <5k a year, but those of us that shoot 25k+ are ready to find a new hobby.
 
You don't have to own your own business to have a clue. There's a ton of professional business men who have a clue that don't own their own businesses. This isn't the first time prices have skyrocketed for commodities. While I agree that it may not land where it was, there's no real indicators that prices will permanently settle multiple factors above where they were.
really? how many business's have u owned? have u had to meet a bank note due on time, deal with quarterlies, meet payroll, deal with yearly rising insurance rates on business adjustments, higher and higher workmans comp payments, working with slimmer and slimmer profit margins because of big box stores and online buying , meanwhile trying to keep your doors open with less product availability. Like I said, i can tell from your response you've never owned your own business. raw material for production most likely will never come down, if there is ever an overabundance again, look for those mining it , to shut down production. They know what they stand to gain from shortages
 
not so much price fixing as the reality of raw materials will continue to rise in cost.

Just curious as to how you know that it's not price fixing? There is plenty of evidence out there pointing to the very real probability that price fixing is exactly what is going on.

Raw materials always rise in price for everything. They don't typically rise 400% though.
 
At this point the doubled cost of primers is only half the problem. Ordering 1-2k at a time and paying shipping/hazmat for them combined with the price increase has effectively quadrupled the price. That may not be a big deal for people that shoot <5k a year, but those of us that shoot 25k+ are ready to find a new hobby.
This is what holds me back from mail order primers. If I could order the max for hazmat shipping I’d order the next time I could. It just adds too much on the price buying a thousand at a time.
 
Just curious as to how you know that it's not price fixing? There is plenty of evidence out there pointing to the very real probability that price fixing is exactly what is going on.

Raw materials always rise in price for everything. They don't typically rise 400% though.
i think this administration has opened the door to the 1%'rs to do whatever they want.
 
really? how many business's have u owned? have u had to meet a bank note due on time, deal with quarterlies, meet payroll, deal with yearly rising insurance rates on business adjustments, higher and higher workmans comp payments, working with slimmer and slimmer profit margins because of big box stores and online buying , meanwhile trying to keep your doors open with less product availability. Like I said, i can tell from your response you've never owned your own business. raw material for production most likely will never come down, if there is ever an overabundance again, look for those mining it , to shut down production. They know what they stand to gain from shortages
Really.
 
So if there currently is anti competitive behavior including price fixing, is this ok with you?
If is doing a lot of work in that sentence, and there is literally zero evidence of price fixing at the current time. If there were to be evidence of such, it would come in the coordinated decrease in production when demand was lower.

The economics of what happened are this: At any given time, primer production numbers are basically fixed. Nobody has added capacity in forever. When Remington went bankrupt, that amount of the supply went off line, so the supply curve, which is vertical in the short term, shifted to the right. Assuming a steady demand curve, you would see price increases, which we did. The amount of those increases would be a factor of demand elasticity. But concurrently the demand curve shifted with the huge influx of new buyers, so the demand curve shifted upward, and probably flattened, so prices went up. When Remington got back on line, which was recent, the supply curve shifted back to normal, but the demand curve had changed. So high prices persisted. That is all literally econ 101. There is nothing in the pricing action that would suggest anything else.

By adding new supply, you will again shift the supply curve to the right, and that will likely lower prices, but the amount will depend of what the demand curve looks like.

As I said, when you would see anti competitive behavior would be supply restriction to keep prices up when demand falls. It is even alluded to in the BIG PRIMERS article above. The problem is that they could have always done that to one degree or another, and they haven't been disciplined enough to be able to. And the almost certainly will not be now. More importantly, ammo is a not a great business, in general. And not great businesses don't become great businesses very often. A great business has pricing power. Primers have pricing power right now, but that is likely very temporary.

Bottom line: you don't need to fix prices if you have significant current excess demand, and there is no way Olin and Vista are going to risk their businesses on price fixing small parts of their business lines. It's ridiculous on its face.
 
talked to a fella at the gunshow this past weekend who's nephew works at Hornady. He said they've tripled production and are still nowhere close to catching up
 
Again, anti competitive behavior would require Olin and Vista to collude in fixing prices somehow. Olin is a 6 billion dollar a year in sales company. They aren't going to risk their entire business to get into a price fixing situation with the miniscule part of their sales made up by retail primer sales. It's asinine.

Since they are the only two competitors in US production, they would have to collude to be engaging in anti competitive behavior.
 
Caveat emptor

Article is 7 years old.
 
And to think the FEDS put a stop to the proposed Vista Outdoor buying of Sportsman's Warehouse tells you a lot. Vista already has the the market cornered and can fix prices.
Vista wasn't going to buy Sportsmans. Great American Outdoors was.

Apparently people have no clue what price fixing means.
 
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Again, anti competitive behavior would require Olin and Vista to collude in fixing prices somehow. Olin is a 6 billion dollar a year in sales company. They aren't going to risk their entire business to get into a price fixing situation with the miniscule part of their sales made up by retail primer sales. It's asinine.

Since they are the only two competitors in US production, they would have to collude to be engaging in anti competitive behavior.
Which they are.
 
Well why do you think Vista Outdoors was not allowed to buy Sportsman's Warehouse? Because the government knew it would create a monopoly.
Vista wasn't going to buy Sportsmans, Great Outdoors Group was going to.
 
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