PortaJohn

if you're wondering...yes she is jewish.

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We currently don’t have the herds to produce all of the meat that is needed, especially with the screw worm issue. Given the already high beef prices this cuts both ways. The consumer will pay when the price of cattle continues to climb and ranchers that go to the bank to buy cattle will feel the pinch too.

screw worms arent a problem in the US, yet. they last were in the 60s. its impact is that we are being careful with Mexican cattle, which i think has been stopped all together.

the higher prices are going be in the lack of supply because the Texas cattle producers (largest cattle producing state) have had to sell more of their breeding herds because of drought. we are all currently trying to rebuild our herds and its going to take a couple of years, but there are very few who are going to be borrowing money to buy replacement cattle at historically high prices. we are all going to breed for them and not sell.

case in point, i have two heifers out of my calves i am going to trade with a buddy of mine so we can get them away from breeding back to their daddy bull.

the biggest driver of price increases have been reduced herds because of the droughts we have been in. we need more rain and that will help prices stay flat for a while. but i dont think thats going to happen until we fix the low herd numbers.
 
screw worms arent a problem in the US, yet. they last were in the 60s. its impact is that we are being careful with Mexican cattle, which i think has been stopped all together.

the higher prices are going be in the lack of supply because the Texas cattle producers (largest cattle producing state) have had to sell more of their breeding herds because of drought. we are all currently trying to rebuild our herds and its going to take a couple of years, but there are very few who are going to be borrowing money to buy replacement cattle at historically high prices. we are all going to breed for them and not sell.

case in point, i have two heifers out of my calves i am going to trade with a buddy of mine so we can get them away from breeding back to their daddy bull.

the biggest driver of price increases have been reduced herds because of the droughts we have been in. we need more rain and that will help prices stay flat for a while. but i dont think thats going to happen until we fix the low herd numbers.
I was looking at this winters projected jet stream pattern and it looks to be a dry winter for Texas. It's going to be another La Nina winter, so it will be wetter in states like Idaho and Colorado. The only bright side is it won't get that cold here in North Texas. Hay isn't cheap either.
 
I was looking at this winters projected jet stream pattern and it looks to be a dry winter for Texas. It's going to be another La Nina winter, so it will be wetter in states like Idaho and Colorado. The only bright side is it won't get that cold here in North Texas. Hay isn't cheap either.

well, down south hay is abundant because it's been raining.

i don't pay any attention to the long term bullshit. when its supposed to be wet, its a dry winter. when its supposed to be dry its a dry winter.

im going to plant my oats anyway and hope for something
 
screw worms arent a problem in the US, yet. they last were in the 60s. its impact is that we are being careful with Mexican cattle, which i think has been stopped all together.

the higher prices are going be in the lack of supply because the Texas cattle producers (largest cattle producing state) have had to sell more of their breeding herds because of drought. we are all currently trying to rebuild our herds and its going to take a couple of years, but there are very few who are going to be borrowing money to buy replacement cattle at historically high prices. we are all going to breed for them and not sell.

case in point, i have two heifers out of my calves i am going to trade with a buddy of mine so we can get them away from breeding back to their daddy bull.

the biggest driver of price increases have been reduced herds because of the droughts we have been in. we need more rain and that will help prices stay flat for a while. but i dont think thats going to happen until we fix the low herd numbers.
That sounds exactly like what is happening in NW Alberta. Multi-year drought is crushing many ranches and farms. Hay crops 20% of normal. The extra $$ is used up now. Folks are facing the financial grim reaper.