I just created this combination of graphs and posted on my Facebook feed (my bully pulpit!). Feel free to share!
There's an aphorism in science that goes, "Correlation does not prove causation, but it can DISprove causation."
It is often said, "More guns means more crime." It certainly sounds plausible on the surface. And, it's been repeated SO often, it's accepted as "common sense / truth." And, we have been subjected to the Fallacy of Misleading Vividness as a result of increased media coverage and public awareness of violent acts. We see it more often, so we THINK it's happening more often. It's not.
But, if we look at the actual facts... the actual numbers, it's not true. The violent crime rate in the United States has PLUMMETED. It's not just trending downward a little. It's "dropping off a cliff." On the other hand, firearm sales (in the same period) have SKYROCKETED. Because of our legal system, these numbers aren't speculative. They are cold hard, verifiable fact.
Admittedly, we cannot posit that "more guns means less crime" as a matter of causation. It is still correlative. Proving causation is a very high scientific bar.
But, we CAN absolutely stipulate that "more guns does NOT mean more crime." As the aforementioned aphorism (gotta love alliteration!) said... Correlation can DISprove causation, as it has here.
Moments ago, I superimposed two charts to demonstrate the correlation of decreasing violent crime and increasing firearms sales in the U.S. (over the same time periods). The source of both sets of statistics is the FBI.
There's an aphorism in science that goes, "Correlation does not prove causation, but it can DISprove causation."
It is often said, "More guns means more crime." It certainly sounds plausible on the surface. And, it's been repeated SO often, it's accepted as "common sense / truth." And, we have been subjected to the Fallacy of Misleading Vividness as a result of increased media coverage and public awareness of violent acts. We see it more often, so we THINK it's happening more often. It's not.
But, if we look at the actual facts... the actual numbers, it's not true. The violent crime rate in the United States has PLUMMETED. It's not just trending downward a little. It's "dropping off a cliff." On the other hand, firearm sales (in the same period) have SKYROCKETED. Because of our legal system, these numbers aren't speculative. They are cold hard, verifiable fact.
Admittedly, we cannot posit that "more guns means less crime" as a matter of causation. It is still correlative. Proving causation is a very high scientific bar.
But, we CAN absolutely stipulate that "more guns does NOT mean more crime." As the aforementioned aphorism (gotta love alliteration!) said... Correlation can DISprove causation, as it has here.
Moments ago, I superimposed two charts to demonstrate the correlation of decreasing violent crime and increasing firearms sales in the U.S. (over the same time periods). The source of both sets of statistics is the FBI.