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Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

The warm and fuzzy, feel good with hope phrase for this Friday is "Peak Inflation"... Take that with you this weekend and keep repeating it. For sure inflation will be tapering off on Monday morning when the markets open.

Peak Inflation :ROFLMAO:
 
Here we have Emily Lorsch who is 30 year old Millenial. She is going to tell those of us who have survived recessions how to prepare and thrive.

Millennials born between 1981 and 1990 have already lived through a recession as working adults.

Just throwing that out there.
 
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You will have to delete this thread, there will never be a recession ever again.

That is another "element" of the new culture here in America........... Redefining.
I was amazed when Jerome Powell used the wording "Transitional inflation".... Seemed like saying a woman was just a little bit pregnant.
Now, gender has been redefined, employed / unemployed has been redefined, racist has been redefined, manufacturing has been redefined, peaceful protest has been redefined... The list of things being redefined is very long.

Long ago when I entered the construction world there was a saying... "Money talks and bull shit walks"... We have a couple of the younger generations here in America that now believe anything that comes across their IPhone is fact.
 
If you don't like the score, change the rules.. O did it when he redefined 'full time' and 'part time' in order to bring more part timers under full time to skew the Unemployment data and Obama Care
O did it with the military, when O redefined 'wounded' with our vets
O was the king of 'redefining' and Biden works for him.. so, this comes as no surprise.
 
From JW Rawles, a "common sense" equation:

Europe’s central bank backs larger-than-expected rate hike. JWR’s Comments: I can foresee that the European Union nations and the English-speaking nations are likely to get into a cycle of one-upmanship in raising interest rates. The rates that we will experience may be quite similar to those of the late 1970s and early 1980s. Why all the pain? Because experience has shown thatthe only way to stop inflation is to make interest rates match the inflation rate. And by that, I mean the real inflation rate — not the lower official statistic. Raising the cost of borrowing money that high will surely trigger a deep recession. So, get ready for stagflation, folks!
 
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Millennials born between 1981 and 1990 have already lived through a recession as working adults.

Just throwing that out there.
The Great Recession lasted from December 2007 to June 2009, the longest contraction since the Great Depression..
If you are speaking of the Great Recession, yes. There are exceptions to every rule. A small percentage of that group actually profited from the recession by holding down a job, living within their means and not running up credit card debt. I don't have a number as to how many moved back into Mom's basement and lived on free money. 13 years ago, moving back to the parents home was much easier than it is today. Many of those grand parents and parents are no longer around to help.
JMHO
 
Stay in your seat and remain calm. It's all good until it's not.
_______________________
“This is not an economy that’s in recession, but we’re in a period of transition in which growth is slowing,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told “Meet the Press” on Sunday. “A recession is a broad-based contraction that affects many sectors of the economy. We just don’t have that.”

 
Does not add up:

Millennials, born between 1981 and 1996, have more than doubled their total net worth, reaching $9.38 trillion in the first quarter of 2022, up from $4.55 trillion two years prior, according to a MagnifyMoney report.
And millennials’ average net worth — defined as total assets minus total liabilities — also increased twofold during the same period, jumping to $127,793 from $62,758, the report found


Specifically, the median wealth of Latinx Millennials is $14,691, more than twice the median wealth of Black Millennials, who hold $5,676, and slightly more than half the wealth of White Millennials, at $26,109. At the very least, racial gaps in Millennial income reflect economic inequality only to a lesser extent.

 
I like stopping by this thread because I'm not as economicaly savy as some of you guys and really enjoy some of the points being made.

I'm an older millenial and I will say people I know in my age group have done well these past couple years. Many got their real-estate license and made a killing with homes. Basically anyone with a heartbeat could do it, especially here in fl. Also seems that many in my age group are finally getting promotions due to lack of labor participation or their businesses are mature enough to start growing and becoming more profitable.

I build homes for a living. I am building a couple custom homes and also a spec home. To say I'm nervous would be an understatement.

Aside from being nervous, it is getting to the point where I don't want to do it anymore. Getting materials and finding the labor to get work done has become exhausting.

For instance, today my electrician comes to me and says they can't find meter cans or meter bases, whatever you want to call them. He has had them on order for months now, and they still have none. So I'm thinking that surely I can find one somewhere. Sure enough I did. Ebay is the only place that has them and they are about $2500 each. You can't even find one in Canada.

So with a shortage of homes, rising interest rates and shit like this happening left and right over job sites with materials and labor, I have a feeling the housing industry is going to be in for a ride.
 
I like stopping by this thread because I'm not as economicaly savy as some of you guys and really enjoy some of the points being made.

I'm an older millenial and I will say people I know in my age group have done well these past couple years. Many got their real-estate license and made a killing with homes. Basically anyone with a heartbeat could do it, especially here in fl. Also seems that many in my age group are finally getting promotions due to lack of labor participation or their businesses are mature enough to start growing and becoming more profitable.

I build homes for a living. I am building a couple custom homes and also a spec home. To say I'm nervous would be an understatement.

Aside from being nervous, it is getting to the point where I don't want to do it anymore. Getting materials and finding the labor to get work done has become exhausting.

For instance, today my electrician comes to me and says they can't find meter cans or meter bases, whatever you want to call them. He has had them on order for months now, and they still have none. So I'm thinking that surely I can find one somewhere. Sure enough I did. Ebay is the only place that has them and they are about $2500 each. You can't even find one in Canada.

So with a shortage of homes, rising interest rates and shit like this happening left and right over job sites with materials and labor, I have a feeling the housing industry is going to be in for a ride.
Those that follow this thread seriously appreciate you taking time to give us your thoughts. Your post may draw a few questions. For the most part, those here have a curiosity about the "future". I, for one, back at the first post thought the recession would hit during the third and fourth quarters of 2022. I underestimated the FED Reserve as far as them leaning to the "transitory inflation"... That, in itself, pushed the recession into 2023. Seems any and all Government schemes only prolong the inevitable.

Any thoughts of the future ? Oil, interest rates, supply chain, IMF (other countries and regions), etc.

Thank you,

Hobo
 
There is no such thing as transitory inflation as long as the money machines dont stop AND deflation never occurs. Until then inflation is either rising or has stopped at a high water mark, at which point they will say the inflation is no longer present because it isnt rising any longer. Technically they would be correct, but it is still a spin on higher prices that are here to stay. Hide and watch to see me be right on this one.
 
Does not add up:

Millennials, born between 1981 and 1996, have more than doubled their total net worth, reaching $9.38 trillion in the first quarter of 2022, up from $4.55 trillion two years prior, according to a MagnifyMoney report.
And millennials’ average net worth — defined as total assets minus total liabilities — also increased twofold during the same period, jumping to $127,793 from $62,758, the report found


Specifically, the median wealth of Latinx Millennials is $14,691, more than twice the median wealth of Black Millennials, who hold $5,676, and slightly more than half the wealth of White Millennials, at $26,109. At the very least, racial gaps in Millennial income reflect economic inequality only to a lesser extent.

First statements are total and "average"... last paragraph is "median".. so a few people like Hunter that got lots of Covid bucks and scammed the system are driving up the average, but not the median.
 
There is no such thing as transitory inflation as long as the money machines dont stop AND deflation never occurs. Until then inflation is either rising or has stopped at a high water mark, at which point they will say the inflation is no longer present because it isnt rising any longer. Technically they would be correct, but it is still a spin on higher prices that are here to stay. Hide and watch to see me be right on this one.
Every day that inflation stays the same, fuel is at $5 / gallon, eggs are at $5 / dozen and wages stay the same is a day closer to making these things "The New Norm"..... When the markets "Plateau" that is a red flag in itself. That is when things stagnate.
 
Every day that inflation stays the same, fuel is at $5 / gallon, eggs are at $5 / dozen and wages stay the same is a day closer to making these things "The New Norm"..... When the markets "Plateau" that is a red flag in itself. That is when things stagnate.
No. This is where the Fed and the politicians are playing with words and confusing people. Inflation is a verb. However, they have turned it into a noun and talk of it like it isn't active. to INFLATE something is to actively expand it. Inflation by its definition is an active, moving thing. Once inflation ceases, the prices are no longer increasing but they are still inflated from a previous norm. Once this occurs, the inflated price is now the norm and there is no more inflation. The same thing happens in the opposite direction with deflation.

Don't let them lie to us and thereby dictate the narrative. We haven't found the new norm with respect to price inflation yet, primarily because we haven't stopped monetary inflation. The closest thing we have to a norm right now is that prices are still inflating - IOW, inflation is the norm, the prices haent stabilized enough to be a norm (a "standard" if you will), except with businesses that need to dump inventory to pay the banker, etc.

Just like they are trying to redefine the word recession, they have been playing with the definition of recession and are counting on the citizenry to not know what they are saying but think they understand. This is how we got to the "temporary inflation" that a few of us on here called out as bullshit.

Let me know if I misunderstood your post.
 
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Those that follow this thread seriously appreciate you taking time to give us your thoughts. Your post may draw a few questions. For the most part, those here have a curiosity about the "future". I, for one, back at the first post thought the recession would hit during the third and fourth quarters of 2022. I underestimated the FED Reserve as far as them leaning to the "transitory inflation"... That, in itself, pushed the recession into 2023. Seems any and all Government schemes only prolong the inevitable.

Any thoughts of the future ? Oil, interest rates, supply chain, IMF (other countries and regions), etc.

Thank you,

Hobo

Like I said, I'm not expert, I don't watch markets closely other than real estate, but I pay close attention to the things going on around me. And I deal with lots of different industries. From concrete and rebar to HVAC and electric, plumbing, lighting, roofing, pavers, landscaping ect...

As for fuel, I don't see any resolve until there is some sort of regime change. What is going on now is on purpose IMO. The oil is here and there's plenty of it. It just needs to be explored, leased, drilled and refined. The government seems to be doing a great job of tying the industry up with holds on leases, cancelations of pipelines ect. They have made it clear they are our to destroy the industry. What better way to stop future investments in any of the things needed to expand production? If the price of fuel would go down, everything else would eventually go down with it, atleast to some extent.

If the fed was serious about inflation, the interest rate would be much higher than it is now. But it would crush the economy and the people in power would rather just kick that can down the road for political purposes. Historically, we aren't at a very high rate, but people my age and many others got spoiled with free money and historically low rates.

The housing market is already starting to fall off in less desireable areas. In the more desireable and wealthy areas, I think you are going to see a plateau in home prices here soon that were growing at 20+% the past year. Houses under 1M will be most affected as the interest rates affect the affordability of the middle class/paycheck people the most. Most home sales, around here anyway, have been cash in the past year or so. I have a theory that most of these people refinance the house after they purchase it with the equity, and use the cash as a purchase incentive only to win the house. As interest rates keep going up, this may start to affect these people too and they may be less willing to buy cash or have to lower their budget. The amount of inventory in my area has risen by about 50% over the last month, but is still historically low. 100% of sellers in the past two weeks got 100% of their asking price. The time on market has almost doubled as well, but it is still historically low. Make of it what you will.

New starts are trending down across the country with an estimated 1.5 - 2M home shortage already. Just a rough guess, but the cost to build a new home is up maybe 20%. So what is that going to do with supply and demand combined with rising interest rates and more expensive homes that take longer to build? Wish I had a crystal ball... I do know some of the bigger builders are starting to shift to more affordable homes and multi family or condo type units.

As long as some of the blue states with people that have money keep shooting themselves in the foot with bad policies and DeSantis keeps winning, I feel confident the stream of people moving to FL is going to continue. If that happens, there is going to need to be more homes built and sold at a profit, or something is going to break somewhere.
 
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Always a brutal market as the recession sets in...
big.chart


 
Just like they are trying to redefine the word recession, they have been playing with the definition of recession and are counting on the citizenry to not know what they are saying but think they understand
Shiiiit. They redefined "vaccine", and 99% of people ate it up like it was perfectly normal. Recession should be a piece of cake.

My business is on the verge of losing some critical income streams because inflation has hit our industry so drastically. I keep having a general sense that there is a serious "disturbance in the force" and we are in for some pain. Don't like it.
 
A big fish in a little pond.
A little fish in a big pond.

I look at the World as a pond. When I was young I was taught America was the Big fish in the little pond.
As I watch this Administration, the FED Reserve, the largest Corporations in America and "We the People"... I'm coming to the conclusion America is just an average fish with some fast growing fish surrounding it.
We all know how that works out.

JMHO
 
 
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I like stopping by this thread because I'm not as economicaly savy as some of you guys and really enjoy some of the points being made.

I'm an older millenial and I will say people I know in my age group have done well these past couple years. Many got their real-estate license and made a killing with homes. Basically anyone with a heartbeat could do it, especially here in fl. Also seems that many in my age group are finally getting promotions due to lack of labor participation or their businesses are mature enough to start growing and becoming more profitable.

I build homes for a living. I am building a couple custom homes and also a spec home. To say I'm nervous would be an understatement.

Aside from being nervous, it is getting to the point where I don't want to do it anymore. Getting materials and finding the labor to get work done has become exhausting.

For instance, today my electrician comes to me and says they can't find meter cans or meter bases, whatever you want to call them. He has had them on order for months now, and they still have none. So I'm thinking that surely I can find one somewhere. Sure enough I did. Ebay is the only place that has them and they are about $2500 each. You can't even find one in Canada.

So with a shortage of homes, rising interest rates and shit like this happening left and right over job sites with materials and labor, I have a feeling the housing industry is going to be in for a ride.
I'm a custom builder, and I am right there with you. I'm booked up for a while, but this time next year will get rough. Going to have to do major renovation again most likely, which I hate. I've had to search and pay theough the nose for many materials for the last year to get houses finished, and with the general mood of society plus hard to find labor, ect. I may just go do something else in a year or two. I've been doing it 20 years and it's been good to me but it's getting to a point where I hate leaving in the morning. Such a huge change in this business over the last 10 years.
 
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I'm a custom builder, and I am right there with you. I'm booked up for a while, but this time next year will get rough. Going to have to do major renovation again most likely, which I hate. I've had to search and pay theough the nose for many materials for the last year to get houses finished, and with the general mood of society plus hard to find labor, ect. I may just go do something else in a year or two. I've been doing it 20 years and it's been good to me but it's getting to a point where I hate leaving in the morning. Such a huge change in this business over the last 10 years.
Every contractor I talk to is saying the same thing. Especially the guys that have been doing it longer than I have.

I have only been on my own for 5 years. I started with insurance work and remodels and got to the point of building homes. I'm not going back to remodels. Id rather just not work or do something else.

I started doing doors and windows and siding. Things that's are relatively easy and profitable. I'm in and out in a couple weeks and don't have to deal with someone for extended periods of time if I end up not liking them. Get one solid crew, teach them how to do it and pay them well. That consistent cash flow makes life so much easier.
 
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I'm not so sure about that one. The residential housing industry employs more people in this country than any other industry BY FAR. As new housing slows, the labor demand lessens and the labor prices will not rise and the over all amount of labor needed will lessen drastically. I've been through this before and I know what's going to happen with some of it. With the massive movement of people to the South East and other Red states plus a pretty large lack of inventory it's hard to say how this industry will go.
 
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Every contractor I talk to is saying the same thing. Especially the guys that have been doing it longer than I have.

I have only been on my own for 5 years. I started with insurance work and remodels and got to the point of building homes. I'm not going back to remodels. Id rather just not work or do something else.

I started doing doors and windows and siding. Things that's are relatively easy and profitable. I'm in and out in a couple weeks and don't have to deal with someone for extended periods of time if I end up not liking them. Get one solid crew, teach them how to do it and pay them well. That consistent cash flow makes life so much easier.
Yeah, I've heavily considered running carpentry crews instead just so I don't have to deal with home owners for so long. I've got a friend that I've been working with for years that I've very seriously been talking to about doing metal also. I'd like to get out of building. I've made great money but the stress and difficulty and changes over the last 10 years has me worried about having a heart attack before I'm 50. I work some seriously long hours and it's 1000 mph all day long without any break or any rest and many times without lunch. As I get older, my concerns in life have changed, and since having kids, your point of view changes a lot too.
 
I'm not so sure about that one. The residential housing industry employs more people in this country than any other industry BY FAR. As new housing slows, the labor demand lessens and the labor prices will not rise and the over all amount of labor needed will lessen drastically. I've been through this before and I know what's going to happen with some of it. With the massive movement of people to the South East and other Red states plus a pretty large lack of inventory it's hard to say how this industry will go.
Some points of the article were thought provoking. Europe has gone through similar labor shortages. Projects there required craftsmen from other countries to get them completed. Very few white collar American's have a hands on skill they can fall back on when the crunch comes.
As pointed out earlier here, the Millennial's have done well for themselves during this boom. In my construction world we had many sayings. One of them was "It's not how much money you make, it's how much you can hold on to"..... We will witness how many Millennials have been prudent enough to come out on the other side with some of that money they made.
 
This recession is like going have a root canal. Dentist will say "If it hurt's I will stop and give you something for pain"... Every time he stops extends the amount of time you have to sit in the chair. Sooner or later there is going to be pain.

 
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Does not add up:

Millennials, born between 1981 and 1996, have more than doubled their total net worth, reaching $9.38 trillion in the first quarter of 2022, up from $4.55 trillion two years prior, according to a MagnifyMoney report.
And millennials’ average net worth — defined as total assets minus total liabilities — also increased twofold during the same period, jumping to $127,793 from $62,758, the report found


Specifically, the median wealth of Latinx Millennials is $14,691, more than twice the median wealth of Black Millennials, who hold $5,676, and slightly more than half the wealth of White Millennials, at $26,109. At the very least, racial gaps in Millennial income reflect economic inequality only to a lesser extent.

A lot of that is due to crypto. Who got in on bitcoin at $1? Most likely millennials.
 
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A lot of that is due to crypto. Who got in on bitcoin at $1? Most likely millennials.
I have survived 3 - 4 major recessions. Going into each recession there have been some very sharp, hard working young people. In every recession they lost a major portion of their wealth. Many times it was due to poor planning or expecting this to "never happen to me". I see crypto being the first thing that took a beating heading into a recession.
Just reflecting on events that I saw transpire more than once.
 



oh my the rescission is here form the lines and everyone grab a board to hit themselves with .
 
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If you "backed out" all of the goods and services the US has sent to Ukraine, how would the GDP number look ?

 
Anything and everything related to moving commodities is up at least 20% from last year. Fuel, tires, wages, replacement vehicles, insurance, warehousing, shipping containers, material handling equipment, power bill at the warehouses.... everything.
These increased cost will not be absorbed by businesses. 100% of the increases will be rolled off on the consumer..... Worldwide