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Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.92% with an average 0.8 point for the week ending February 17, 2022, up from last week when it averaged 3.69%, shows Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.81%.
“Mortgage rates jumped again due to high inflation and stronger than expected consumer spending,” states Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is nearing four percent, reaching highs we have not seen since May 2019. As rates and house prices rise, affordability has become a substantial hurdle for potential home buyers, especially as inflation threatens to place a strain on consumer budgets.”

mortgageorb.com

Freddie Mac Chief Economist Explains Rising Mortgage Rates in Last Week - MortgageOrb

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.92% with an average 0.8 point for the week ending February 17, 2022, up from last week when it averaged 3.69%, shows Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 2.81%. “Mortgage rates jumped again due...
mortgageorb.com mortgageorb.com
 
Vodoun daVinci said:
GDP expanded 5.7% last year - fastest pace since 1984. Not disagreeing we are gonna have a Recession but right this very minute, aside from The Market checking/correcting itself pretty well in January shit looks good for me. Concerned about inflation *but* I think that might just be a sign of all the bullshit we have been thru the last 18 months.

We'll see.

VooDoo
Click to expand...
The "booming" economy is a mid-level contributor to the cause of inflation (too much money chasing too few goods). Only 2 (maybe 3) ways to get inflation under control. Hike short term rates or force long term rates higher. 3rd way might be for the Fed to add volatility (uncertainty) to the market to reduce risk asset investing. All 3 bring markets down to wipe out assets. 1 & 2 ALWAYS lower markets and usually have brought on recessions (which is its purpose), It cools off the economy, removes assets from the market and lowers inflation because there is less available discretionary money in the economy.

The Fed is in a boondoggle. The current Admin can't keep the majority with inflation so high going into the midterms, but if the Fed raises rates like it will have to, to get a grip on inflation, they'll tank the market which will also not bode well for the current admin.

Cheers & Keep your powder dry my friend.

Ike
 
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IkeEng said:
The "booming" economy is a mid-level contributor to the cause of inflation (too much money chasing too few goods). Only 2 (maybe 3) ways to get inflation under control. Hike short term rates or force long term rates higher. 3rd way might be for the Fed to add volatility (uncertainty) to the market to reduce risk asset investing. All 3 bring markets down to wipe out assets. 1 & 2 ALWAYS lower markets and usually have brought on recessions (which is its purpose), It cools off the economy, removes assets from the market and lowers inflation because there is less available discretionary money in the economy.

The Fed is in a boondoggle. The current Admin can't keep the majority with inflation so high going into the midterms, but if the Fed raises rates like it will have to, to get a grip on inflation, they'll tank the market which will also not bode well for the current admin.

Cheers & Keep your powder dry my friend.

Ike
Click to expand...
You bring out some good points. Historically your 3 points have always worked. Unfortunately, America (financially) has never been in this position before. The old guy's here have lived through 3+ recessions. Never before has the US Government dumped that much money into attempting to stimulate the economy. Bernanke and his "Helicopter Money" (QE) was an attempt to sustain markets. Currently the Government printing presses have been running around the clock for almost 2 years. Never before has the country been shut down, people paid to not work, businesses given, so called, loans that were eventually forgiven. Eviction moratoriums, 3 maybe 4 rounds of different money handed out... The whole while the Administration is handing out more and more money to fight the pandemic... Never, never ever has this been done.
Two years ago other countries bit the bullet and allowed their markets to correct. The only reason US Markets rose was due to the Government's infusion of USD's.... Big business took the money and bought back their stock and paid a bit more in dividends.
Every Government report on unemployment, inflation, production, cost of raw material, etc is skewed... Similar to how the Dow 30 Industrial stocks are rotated in and out as a way to show good numbers.
Some have said the FED can't raise rates because it can't even pay the interest. The FED is saying we will just print more money.
Today the markets were down 2% - 3% +/-... Fake news says they were down due to the situation in the Ukraine or perhaps a carry over from the Pandemic..... The markets were down and falling because the rest of the financial world has lost confidence in the USD, the FED and the President.
Chart below shows the SP500 versus the Hang Seng Index. The SP500 kept going for one reason, Billions of USD's dumped into the market. Look closely at both trends for the past month. Eventually the lines will cross. Until then we will witness the worst possible financial crisis America has ever seen. I hope I am wrong.
 

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These type of headlines, psychologically, tend to make the average man say "Well, it's only money".... Well, in these cases it is not money, it is debt. Simply adding more to the debt of the USA. The plan of this administration is to bankrupt America.
_____________
The initial $4 billion target comprised $1 billion each from the U.S. and UAE governments, $1.8 billion from other governments and $200 million from non-government partners.

 
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Hobo Hilton said:
These type of headlines, psychologically, tend to make the average man say "Well, it's only money".... Well, in these cases it is not money, it is debt. Simply adding more to the debt of the USA. The plan of this administration is to bankrupt America.
_____________
The initial $4 billion target comprised $1 billion each from the U.S. and UAE governments, $1.8 billion from other governments and $200 million from non-government partners.

Click to expand...
Newsflash to everyone, America is already broke. It’s been held up on a lie for decades.
 
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What I have seen in the last few months in my area is construction contracts being torn up. Contracts that were signed in the late fall can not be completed for the costs that were estimated. The numbers of permits are way down because of the costs. Even the number of remodeling permits are down.
I have seen this in the past and it usually ends up the same way. This time feels different though. Local industries can fill labor shortages to even get back to the pre "14 days to flatten the curve" level. But the economy is still strong. No one can explain this phenom. So where's all the money coming from? Where did all the people go?
 
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DarnYankeeUSMC said:
What I have seen in the last few months in my area is construction contracts being torn up. Contracts that were signed in the late fall can not be completed for the costs that were estimated. The numbers of permits are way down because of the costs. Even the number of remodeling permits are down.
I have seen this in the past and it usually ends up the same way. This time feels different though. Local industries can fill labor shortages to even get back to the pre "14 days to flatten the curve" level. But the economy is still strong. No one can explain this phenom. So where's all the money coming from? Where did all the people go?
Click to expand...
Your observations are spot on... No need to fact check.
I agree, to an extent, it "feels different".
Making a decision today, based on historical events, could lead a man farther down the rabbit hole.
I don't think the economy is as strong as we are being made to believe.
Fiat money is coming from Government printing presses and from other nations that still have faith in the USD $.
The people did not go anywhere. They are still here. Many are now getting by due to running up credit card balances, hoping things will improve.
 
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DarnYankeeUSMC said:
What I have seen in the last few months in my area is construction contracts being torn up. Contracts that were signed in the late fall can not be completed for the costs that were estimated. The numbers of permits are way down because of the costs. Even the number of remodeling permits are down.
I have seen this in the past and it usually ends up the same way. This time feels different though. Local industries can fill labor shortages to even get back to the pre "14 days to flatten the curve" level. But the economy is still strong. No one can explain this phenom. So where's all the money coming from? Where did all the people go?
Click to expand...
I don’t think the economy is as strong as they say. Increased prices will drive up sales in dollar terms even with fewer purchases. Credit card debt and savings can cover purchases for a time.

You can’t have a record number of people on their ass at the house, increasing cc debt, a high inflation rate, stagnated wages and an expanding/healthy economy. It isn’t possible. It may be able to be covered up for a time and lied about as something that exists but that doesn’t make it so.
 
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DarnYankeeUSMC said:
What I have seen in the last few months in my area is construction contracts being torn up. Contracts that were signed in the late fall can not be completed for the costs that were estimated. The numbers of permits are way down because of the costs. Even the number of remodeling permits are down.
I have seen this in the past and it usually ends up the same way. This time feels different though. Local industries can fill labor shortages to even get back to the pre "14 days to flatten the curve" level. But the economy is still strong. No one can explain this phenom. So where's all the money coming from? Where did all the people go?
Click to expand...
Where are you at dude
 
NoDopes said:
People are going to learn to do more and more of their own work.
Click to expand...
I agree.... A motivating factor happens when a person hires a contractor that did a crappy job. The client looks at the work and says "I could have done a better job than that"... A sign of the times... When times get tough, everyone is an unlicensed contractor. Beware.
 
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America is a country in debt. When a country "forgives debt"... It just puts a country farther in debt. Why is the US forgiving loans ?
It is appearing that the US Government is preparing to forgive debt to itself.
____________________________________________________

Estimated 9.3 million employees could have their student loans forgiven​


More than 40.7 million federal student loan borrowers across the U.S. hold an estimated $1.71 trillion in education debt. (An additional 4.4 million borrowers live outside the 50 states or didn’t report their locations.) While not every borrower will qualify for PSLF, borrowers who work at a nonprofit organization or a U.S. federal, state, local or tribal government might. Military service also qualifies, and payments now count even if the borrower paused them while on active duty.

Public Service Loan Forgiveness: Do You Qualify For It? | LendingTree

Public service loan forgiveness can be extremely valuable. But how do you qualify and apply for this program? We break it down for you here.
studentloanhero.com
 
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Bigfatcock said:
Shit isn’t cheap anymore, lol. Damn, when did 2,100 square feet become small, lol?

2100 sf of livable space and a 3 car garage use up a lot of siding.
Click to expand...
Ya it does, and you don't want to cheep out on the installers, the tradesman.
For water proof reasons, you want the hotshot on your house. It will perform better and look better.
Hate to say it, but that costs.
If you can't do it yourself, just eat it and have it done right
 
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oneshot86 said:
Ya it does, and you don't want to cheep out on the installers, the tradesman.
For water proof reasons, you want the hotshot on your house. It will perform better and look better.
Hate to say it, but that costs.
If you can't do it yourself, just eat it and have it done right
Click to expand...
That was my thought. Siding is something I have no interest in doing, and not something I want to save money on by using the cheapest person imaginable.

If I get 30 years out of it, that’s only $600 a year for quality shit that protects my home.

Plus warranty on material and work.
 
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oneshot86 said:
Ya it does, and you don't want to cheep out on the installers, the tradesman.
For water proof reasons, you want the hotshot on your house. It will perform better and look better.
Hate to say it, but that costs.
If you can't do it yourself, just eat it and have it done right
Click to expand...

Bigfatcock said:
That was my thought. Siding is something I have no interest in doing, and not something I want to save money on by using the cheapest person imaginable.

If I get 30 years out of it, that’s only $600 a year for quality shit that protects my home.

Plus warranty on material and work.
Click to expand...
This! My problem with the building industry tho is that you don’t always get what you pay for, even when you pay the high dollar guy. In fact, from my experience the building industry is pretty crooked and one of those industries that goes somewhat unchecked. And I find it sad that you yourself basicallly have to become an expert at everything nowadays to make sure stuff is getting done right and that you don’t get ripped off!
 
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SilentStalkr said:
This! My problem with the building industry tho is that you don’t always get what you pay for, even when you pay the high dollar guy. In fact, from my experience the building industry is pretty crooked and one of those industries that goes somewhat unchecked. And I find it sad that you yourself basicallly have to become an expert at everything nowadays to make sure stuff is getting done right and that you don’t get ripped off!
Click to expand...
Agreed.
I use referrals only and I know everyone here
 
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SilentStalkr said:
This! My problem with the building industry tho is that you don’t always get what you pay for, even when you pay the high dollar guy. In fact, from my experience the building industry is pretty crooked and one of those industries that goes somewhat unchecked. And I find it sad that you yourself basicallly have to become an expert at everything nowadays to make sure stuff is getting done right and that you don’t get ripped off!
Click to expand...

Exactly. Every Plumber I've dealt with wants to cut corners, and everytime I tell them I want it done a certain way (and within codes), they just waste my time with useless excuses, and want to charge me for the time wasted. I can do a better job, and just have to brush up on the codes.

Glad I've been playing with electricity since I was old enough to stick my little finger's in the Christmas light sockets. Every Electrical Inspector I've dealt with always comment positively on my work.
 
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If you kill the economy (and for this let’s assume it was on purpose) it doesn’t take the iron clad 50 year political bona fides of Chairman joe biden giver of crack pipes & supreme leader of the restocking of toilet paper to save the economy, if you start with a negative value a return to normal isn’t an act of joe, it’s that joe isn’t trying hard enough to starve us out
 
Alpine 338 said:
Exactly. Every Plumber I've dealt with wants to cut corners, and everytime I tell them I want it done a certain way (and within codes), they just waste my time with useless excuses, and want to charge me for the time wasted. I can do a better job, and just have to brush up on the codes.

Glad I've been playing with electricity since I was old enough to stick my little finger's in the Christmas light sockets. Every Electrical Inspector I've dealt with always comment positively on my work.
Click to expand...
It’s just sad man! Mainly because that means a fair price for fair work no longer exists in large part. And there simply isn’t enough time for most professionals to learn how to do everything themselves.

Also, a lot of inspectors are paid off.
 
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Bobbyshouseofpain said:
If you kill the economy (and for this let’s assume it was on purpose) it doesn’t take the iron clad 50 year political bona fides of Chairman joe biden giver of crack pipes & supreme leader of the restocking of toilet paper to save the economy, if you start with a negative value a return to normal isn’t an act of joe, it’s that joe isn’t trying hard enough to starve us out
Click to expand...
American's being starved out is moving faster now than any other time in the history of America. A lot of American's are in denial or belong to the camp of "Hoping things will get better".... Hope is not a plan.
 
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The economy will tank, hard. Only questions are when and what kicks it off. As far as I can see the brakes are permanently off the roller coaster now. None of the past inflation fighting tools can be used. https://usdebtclock.org/ The US debt to GDP is 138% upside down. Even the slightest economic slowdown will make that even worse. Unlike prior times there was a buffer in debt to GDP ratio were the equity if you will of the economy could be leveraged against debt spending.

There is no amount of government debt raising, loan forgiveness, printing press go brrrr that can reverse that. Exactly like a credit card that is 138% over limit, it’s a forgone conclusion at this point.

I also think when it does happen it will be worse then any time in US history. Unlike the 1930’s era depression, more people were still in touch with sustenance farming then. Houses were still built to be climate appropriate. Northern houses had fireplaces and means of independent heating. None of that now. Lose power and freeze. Hunting for food…. think deer season is crowded now…..
 
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DRandi said:
The economy will tank, hard. Only questions are when and what kicks it off. As far as I can see the brakes are permanently off the roller coaster now. None of the past inflation fighting tools can be used. https://usdebtclock.org/ The US debt to GDP is 138% upside down. Even the slightest economic slowdown will make that even worse. Unlike prior times there was a buffer in debt to GDP ratio were the equity if you will of the economy could be leveraged against debt spending.

There is no amount of government debt raising, loan forgiveness, printing press go brrrr that can reverse that. Exactly like a credit card that is 138% over limit, it’s a forgone conclusion at this point.

I also think when it does happen it will be worse then any time in US history. Unlike the 1930’s era depression, more people were still in touch with sustenance farming then. Houses were still built to be climate appropriate. Northern houses had fireplaces and means of independent heating. None of that now. Lose power and freeze. Hunting for food…. think deer season is crowded now…..
Click to expand...
There was also 5.8 billion less people on earth. Gas prices will kick it off just like the Great Recession.

Can’t cut back on going to work to save on gas…
 
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Hobo Hilton said:
The FED is not wanting to disturb the markets. I was starting to get that feeling. I'm not the only one.

Click to expand...
Not sure if you enjoy reading books, but the past couple of months I've read Ray Dalio's 2 books on debt crisis history and looking forward mostly at China's positioning for the next 30 years. Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order - Why Nations Fail. 2nd book - Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises....actually have another 90 pages to go on this last one. I think you'd find it time well spent and quite captivating I couldn't put them down. Dalio has a very easy writing style which not many folks possess in the economics/finance book space. His ability to convey a bucket full of complex topics and connect the dots is uncanny. Some folks can confuse a push up....that's not him. Brass tacks bottom liner.
 
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Inflation hits the Pentagon: Biden requests defense budget increase​

The cost of everything is on the rise across the U.S. with inflation sitting at a 40-year high, and now the price of national defense could be on its way to a new record: The Biden administration is reportedly seeking the highest Pentagon budget in history for next fiscal year.

www.foxbusiness.com

Inflation hits the Pentagon: Biden requests defense budget increase

President Biden is expected to ask for more than $770 billion for the Pentagon's budget next fiscal year
www.foxbusiness.com www.foxbusiness.com
 
A brief message from today's "Snake Oil Salesman":
www.cnbc.com

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan says U.S. consumer spending 'very strong' in February

Bank of America's relationships with U.S. households, small businesses and corporations give Moynihan a unique view into the health of the economy.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
________________________
EDIT:
After posting this article, something did not sit right. went back to an article dated around the same time that said -
"Consumers ended 2021 with record levels of debt, leading into a year in which interest rates are expected to rise substantially."
Total U.S. consumer debt at the end of the year came to $15.6 trillion, a year-over-year jump of $333 billion during the fourth quarter and just over $1 trillion for the full year, according to data released Tuesday from the Federal Reserve’s New York district.
The quarterly rise was the biggest since 2007, and the annual gain was the largest ever in records going back to 2003.
This does not add up. B of A says savings accounts rose and the NY FED say consumers have record level debt... ?

www.cnbc.com

Consumer debt totals $15.6 trillion in 2021, a record-breaking increase

Total debt at the end of the year came to $15.6 trillion, an increase of $333 billion in the fourth quarter and just over $1 trillion for the year.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
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In the past few weeks all of the largest banks in the free world have stated their customer's have increased savings deposits to levels never seem before (B of A, HSBC, JP Morgan Chase, etc). Some are stunned at the large amounts that came in during a pandemic. What none have commented on is the fact that, currently, there are very few "safe" places to park money. Large fund managers are saying they are heavy with sidelined cash. So, what's backing up all of this cash ? Perhaps perhaps some feel secure that it is backed up by the FDIC.
I'm going from memory on this - America saw a time when Pension funds were going broke and, if my memory is correct, there was a US Government fund that guaranteed pension funds. So many went broke that the Government could not pay out dollar for dollar on those accounts.

Many of these mega banks are somehow able to buy back billions of dollars of their on stocks due to the large amounts in savings accounts. I can't explain the nuts and bolts of how that works.

Is it possible, in a worst case scenario, that the US Government could not cover the guarantee of the FDIC ?

Deposit Insurance at a Glance​

FDIC deposit insurance enables consumers to confidently place their money at thousands of FDIC-insured banks across the country, and is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government.

www.fdic.gov

About the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)

The FDIC’s mission is to maintain stability and public confidence in the U.S. financial system. Learn about the FDIC’s purpose, programs, leadership, and more.
www.fdic.gov www.fdic.gov
 
Hobo Hilton said:
In the past few weeks all of the largest banks in the free world have stated their customer's have increased savings deposits to levels never seem before (B of A, HSBC, JP Morgan Chase, etc). Some are stunned at the large amounts that came in during a pandemic. What none have commented on is the fact that, currently, there are very few "safe" places to park money. Large fund managers are saying they are heavy with sidelined cash. So, what's backing up all of this cash ? Perhaps perhaps some feel secure that it is backed up by the FDIC.
I'm going from memory on this - America saw a time when Pension funds were going broke and, if my memory is correct, there was a US Government fund that guaranteed pension funds. So many went broke that the Government could not pay out dollar for dollar on those accounts.

Many of these mega banks are somehow able to buy back billions of dollars of their on stocks due to the large amounts in savings accounts. I can't explain the nuts and bolts of how that works.

Is it possible, in a worst case scenario, that the US Government could not cover the guarantee of the FDIC ?

Deposit Insurance at a Glance​

FDIC deposit insurance enables consumers to confidently place their money at thousands of FDIC-insured banks across the country, and is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States government.

www.fdic.gov

About the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)

The FDIC’s mission is to maintain stability and public confidence in the U.S. financial system. Learn about the FDIC’s purpose, programs, leadership, and more.
www.fdic.gov www.fdic.gov
Click to expand...
Remember when this almost happened some 20 years ago? They raised the Insurance limit IIRC.

The other issue here is that large fund managers - the so-called adept and intelligent with respect to markets - are losing customers' money to inflation while they sit on it trying to find yield. Or avoid losses. This should tell us all something.
 
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lariat said:
Remember when this almost happened some 20 years ago? They raised the Insurance limit IIRC.

The other issue here is that large fund managers - the so-called adept and intelligent with respect to markets - are losing customers' money to inflation while they sit on it trying to find yield. Or avoid losses. This should tell us all something.
Click to expand...
So there is no hope and we are all screwed?
 
SilentStalkr said:
So there is no hope and we are all screwed?
Click to expand...
Im not in that camp. And I have been thinking about this. The real question is what can you invest in that will be resilient in what is coming? The best way to answer that question is to first identify what is coming. Obviously it cant be 100% predicted but it also isnt 0% failure on what will come to pass.

Inflation, lots of it. Decreased consumer demand. Those are the two main short-term events that can be readily seen through 2Q22.
 
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lariat said:
Im not in that camp. And I have been thinking about this. The real question is what can you invest in that will be resilient in what is coming? The best way to answer that question is to first identify what is coming. Obviously it cant be 100% predicted but it also isnt 0% failure on what will come to pass.

Inflation, lots of it. Decreased consumer demand. Those are the two main short-term events that can be readily seen through 2Q22.
Click to expand...
I’m open for suggestions seeing as how the market really tanked!
 
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This is a sobering discussion.
Take a mental inventory of material stuff you have.
What can you do to improve your health ? Eyesight, joints, feet, hearing, spare prescription meds
Financially, can you keep that roof over your head ?
Do you have things that are costing you money to keep that you will not be needing in the next 12 months?
Can you maintain what you have without pulling out a credit card ?
Can you put those "extra" vehicles up on blocks, cancel the insurance and let the registration go?
Do you have somewhere to go if you are forced to abandon your abode ?
Should you lose your job, what is your plan?
 
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Home prices have skyrocketed last 24-months, and rent/lease are going up. Just about everyplace is complaining about affordable housing. There's affordable housing out there, but it's not where anyone wants to live, or there's no jobs to keep people around.

Still trying to figure out how the average person without any wealth is going to continue? That debt is going to come due eventually.
 
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Alpine 338 said:
Home prices have skyrocketed last 24-months, and rent/lease are going up. Just about everyplace is complaining about affordable housing. There's affordable housing out there, but it's not where anyone wants to live, or there's no jobs to keep people around.

Still trying to figure out how the average person without any wealth is going to continue? That debt is going to come due eventually.
Click to expand...
Past recessions proved to many that debt is going to come due much faster than anyone can comprehend.... Banks, credit card companies and the "Payday Lenders" are well versed in recession economics. This recession is moving quicker than one's in the past. Look for the Repo Man, the bill collectors and the garnishments to come on much quicker. They want to collect funds while the debtor still has some cash or a job.

History repeating.
 
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Recently looked up stats for delinquent credit cards, car loans, mortgages... they were are all at recent year lows. I think the theory is that the covid bucks and eviction moratorium allowed people to stay on top of those... but if so, could swing quickly the other way.
fredgraph.png
 
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With all the sidelined money, I think people are waiting for a better opportunity to invest. A lot missed the 2020 crash, and held out waiting for a further drop only to watch the indexes double over a 2 year period.

I’m scaling into more S&P and QQQ. Real estate is always on my radar, but I’m still waiting on that one. Even if the real estate market takes a 50% haircut, that would really only take it back to 2016 levels, and I’d be buying like crazy.

If a full blown depression comes then we’re pretty much fucked, lol.
 
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I'm starting to doubt some of the "Worker Shortage" propaganda. Other's have asked "Where did all of these people go"?... IDK
If the Government's unemployment numbers are tainted, that is why the FED Reserve is sitting on it's hands, not raising interest.
Seems that there are a lot of companies, world wide, who are laying off workers:
Info from January 20, 2022

Top Companies that Announced Major Layoffs & Hiring Freezes-2024

Intellizence has curated a list of major companies that have announced mass layoffs, job cuts, downsizing, hiring freezes, and furloughs.
intellizence.com intellizence.com
 
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WEF: Biometric Digital ID Cards Could Track Vaccination Status, Dutch Queen Máxima Says at Davos
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