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Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

Inflation is fueling the recession. Turn off the fuel to tame the inflation. Watching the efforts of the UK Government and the tactics they are employing. History repeating itself in Europe.
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Mr Sunak said his offer was "final" and further industrial action would not change that decision, saying: "There will be no more talks on pay. We will not negotiate again on this year's settlements and no amount of strikes will change our decision."

www.bbc.com

Millions of public sector workers to get pay rise

Millions of public sector workers, including teachers and police, are to get pay rises between 5-7%.
www.bbc.com
 
Difficult to build that 401k while inflation is eating up that "extra money" you had 3 - 4 years ago. All part of the plan.
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On average, Americans between the ages of 40 and 49 have $105,500 in their 401(k)s as of the first quarter of 2023, according to Fidelity Investments data provided to CNBC Make It. However, the median account balance is much lower at $34,100, meaning half of accounts hold more money and half hold less. The median is typically considered to be a better measure since the average can be skewed higher by a small number of accounts with larger balances.

www.cnbc.com

Here's how much Americans in their 40s have in their 401(k)s

Most Americans in their 40s have around two decades until retirement but may not be saving up enough money. Two tips for boosting your retirement contributions.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
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The recession is definitely "Regional". An article that backs up that theory.
So, when the Government numbers don't jive with your monthly budget, dig a little deeper and verify that the Government is not considering these areas.
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State economic performance in 2022 ranged from 4.9% growth in gross domestic product in Idaho to a 2.4% GDP decline in Alaska, according to the Commerce Department. That means some states are better positioned to weather an economic downturn than others.

www.cnbc.com

These 10 states are America's worst economies, leaving populations at risk

With recession still a risk, these are the states with the weakest economies that would take the biggest hits, based on CNBC’s Top States for Business study.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
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Appears that Bullard is jumping ship before the gravy train runs out.
Wise move.
Wonder which one of Biden's transsexuals will fill that slot ??????
Surely, Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre would do a magnificent job in that position.
;)


1689275057668.png

The seven members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System are nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate. A full term is fourteen years. One term begins every two years, on February 1 of even-numbered years. A member who serves a full term may not be reappointed.May 12, 2023

www.apumone.com

James Bullard Net Worth 2023, Age, Wife, Children, Height, Family, Parents, Salary

Read about James Bullard net worth, age, wife, children, height, family, parents, salary and Fed as well as other information you need to know.
www.apumone.com www.apumone.com
 
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Digging the hold deeper every day.
o_O
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The numbers: The U.S. federal budget deficit widened sharply to $227.76 billion in June, up from $88.8 billion in the same month last year, the Treasury Department said Thursday. For the first nine months of the fiscal year, the deficit was $1.39 trillion, up from $515.1 billion in the same period last year.11 mins ago

U.S. budget deficit widens to $227.8 billion in June

www.morningstar.com www.morningstar.com
 
I guess a "situation" depends on a person's point of view. Me and Janet are on different ends of the spectrum.
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In the US, “growth has slowed, but our labor market continues to be quite strong — I don't expect a recession,” Yellen said. The economy is on a “good path” to bring inflation down without a major weakening in the labor market, she said. Last week's report on consumer prices was “quite encouraging,” Yellen said.3 hours ago
 
LOL... The can is being kicked down the road. For the next 12 months wages will increase, just not as fast as inflation.
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Goldman Sachs revised down the odds of a U.S. recession happening in the next 12 months, cutting the probability down to 20% from 25% on the back of positive economic activity.

www.cnbc.com

Goldman Sachs cuts odds of a U.S. recession in the next year

The investment bank, however, expects some deceleration in subsequent quarters as a result of sequentially slower real disposable personal income growth.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
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NoDopes said:
www.bls.gov

Civilian labor force participation rate by age, sex, race, and ethnicity : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Civilian labor force participation rates by age, sex, race, and ethnicity
www.bls.gov www.bls.gov

Group​
Participation rate, 2001​
Participation rate, 2011​
Participation rate, 2021​
Participation rate, 2031 ​
65 to 74​
19.726.425.830.7
75 and older​
5.2 7.5 8.6 11.1

(Excuse the poor attempt at column alignment)
Click to expand...
Retirement is a recent construct for all but the wealthiest. We had all better get comfortable with the fact that it is about to revert back to the original model of working until you die, whenever that is. We have lived in an elegant time, but it is about over.
 
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lariat said:
Office real estate values are moving down so fast that banking giants like Wells Fargo are already bracing for losses
Click to expand...
Almost 2 years ago the "analysist" were starting to take notice of the decline in demand for office space. Some said it was due to the "work from home" movement and other's said it was due to the shift from shopping at the mall to shopping on the Internet... IDK but just some conversations I remember.

Obviously, the Deep State wants to relocate people back into the mega cities where they will be easier to control. A topic for another time.

Affordable housing and a short walk to work is a movement to to observe. The short range EV's are suppose to fill the gap of cheap transportation for a commute but there is nothing cheap about today's EV's.

Converting office space into living space is one plan that has been working as the large manufacturing companies moved off shore.

Back to the city they go:
images
 
Christophe Barraud, chief economist and strategist of Market Securities and someone who regularly appears among the ranks of the top economic forecasters, pointed to a New York Fed survey which found that the average likelihood of a credit applicant needing $2,000 within the next month rose to the highest level since Feb. 2021, while the average likelihood of being able to come up with $2,000 fell to the lowest level since Feb. 2022.

Here are the latest signs that Americans are running out of savings

www.morningstar.com www.morningstar.com
 
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lariat said:
Retirement is a recent construct for all but the wealthiest. We had all better get comfortable with the fact that it is about to revert back to the original model of working until you die, whenever that is. We have lived in an elegant time, but it is about over.
Click to expand...
Significant percentage of US citizens and now non-citizens do not work now so they so not need to "retire"
 
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Hobo Hilton said:
Almost 2 years ago the "analysist" were starting to take notice of the decline in demand for office space. Some said it was due to the "work from home" movement and other's said it was due to the shift from shopping at the mall to shopping on the Internet... IDK but just some conversations I remember.

Obviously, the Deep State wants to relocate people back into the mega cities where they will be easier to control. A topic for another time.

Affordable housing and a short walk to work is a movement to to observe. The short range EV's are suppose to fill the gap of cheap transportation for a commute but there is nothing cheap about today's EV's.

Converting office space into living space is one plan that has been working as the large manufacturing companies moved off shore.

Back to the city they go:
images
Click to expand...
Remote = done overseas cheaper. Remote = let AI do it.
 
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America is a country that has been put in "Hospice". Some of us know what the future holds, but in the mean time, the main goal of hospice is to minimize the pain. Almost daily, some sort of pain med is being administrated. It could be financial, psychological or even physical.

www.reuters.com

U.S. leading indicators point to recession starting soon

An index designed to track turns in U.S. business cycles fell for the 15th straight month in June, dragged down by a weakening consumer outlook and increased unemployment claims, marking the longest streak of decreases since the lead-up to the 2007-2009 recession.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
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Hobo Hilton said:
Telecom company Crown Castle Inc. (CCI) announced a series of corporate moves Monday, including a workforce reduction of 15% and consolidation of office space. The company is seeking to cut costs by $120 million and align operational needs in the second half of the year, according to a regulatory filing.

Crown Castle to slash about 15% of workforce

www.morningstar.com www.morningstar.com
Click to expand...
Workforce reduction with less office space = white collar jobs = jobs with degrees.
 
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Lightning8 said:
Workforce reduction with less office space = white collar jobs = jobs with degrees.
Click to expand...
And janitors, maintenance/service personnel, office supply companies, parking garage revenues, restaurants, grounds keepers, the list of industries to support office buildings is quite long. Add up enough of those and the trickle down economic effects in the communities or states and it could be a big hit. Not to mention the banking industry impacts for non-payment of those commercial spaces. One building or one company is an overall non-issue unless you worked there, but a trend in this direction could be impactful. San Fransisco is a prime example.
 
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"I've been at this for 52 years, and I think that I see more uncertainty now than I've ever seen in our country in running corporations across a broad sector of businesses," former Home Depot CEO Bob Nardelli said on "Cavuto: Coast to Coast" Monday.

www.foxbusiness.com

Former Home Depot CEO says US businesses have 'more uncertainty now' in more than 50 years

US politicians should be taking the economy "very seriously," according to Bob Nardelli, who warned of "more uncertainty now" within a broad sector of businesses.
www.foxbusiness.com www.foxbusiness.com
 
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lariat said:
And janitors, maintenance/service personnel, office supply companies, parking garage revenues, restaurants, grounds keepers, the list of industries to support office buildings is quite long. Add up enough of those and the trickle down economic effects in the communities or states and it could be a big hit. Not to mention the banking industry impacts for non-payment of those commercial spaces. One building or one company is an overall non-issue unless you worked there, but a trend in this direction could be impactful. San Fransisco is a prime example.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately, your listing of "costs" associated with commercial real estate explains exactly why many corporations will never return to "work" as we once knew it but will pursue a mix of "in-house" remote employees, outsourcing to India and etc., AI and Machine Learning, and various forms of automation.
 
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Lightning8 said:
Unfortunately, your listing of "costs" associated with commercial real estate explains exactly why many corporations will never return to "work" as we once knew it but will pursue a mix of "in-house" remote employees, outsourcing to India and etc., AI and Machine Learning, and various forms of automation.
Click to expand...
I'm currently in a remote work situation.. and it's clear, several people are sandbagging their work. A few we are certain were working 2 jobs at once and those were fired. Still.. tolerance levels for several significant slackers is still way too high. There is a worker on my team that hasn't delivered almost any work in the 14 months I've been on the project, but he's an employee and they refuse to let him go. He's had 3 warnings.

Some companies have gone so far as to monitor every keystroke, activate webcams to monitor employees face to make sure they are engaged. These Orwellian measures are likely to increase as workers continue to abuse the privilege.
 
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NoDopes said:
I'm currently in a remote work situation.. and it's clear, several people are sandbagging their work. A few we are certain were working 2 jobs at once and those were fired. Still.. tolerance levels for several significant slackers is still way too high. There is a worker on my team that hasn't delivered almost any work in the 14 months I've been on the project, but he's an employee and they refuse to let him go. He's had 3 warnings.

Some companies have gone so far as to monitor every keystroke, activate webcams to monitor employees face to make sure they are engaged. These Orwellian measures are likely to increase as workers continue to abuse the privilege.
Click to expand...
The same slackers goofed off at office too. Issue is corporate America focused on the assembly line jobs where "widgets per hour" could be measured - COVID brought out to the C suite "what do all these office workers actually do anyway?".
 
To some of you, you have taken my comments as negative. I call them realistic.
Now, in all fairness, history has proven, many individuals and companies do very well during a recession.
I think the guy who wrote this article will do well.
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With recession in his forecast, Rosenberg steers investors into bonds and rate-sensitive stocks including utilities, consumer staples and REITs
It's said that you don't know an economy is in a recession until it's in one. Or as David Rosenberg puts it: "Recessions are like an odorless gas. They sneak up on you."
These days, Rosenberg is looking for fresh air. A former chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch and now president of Toronto-based Rosenberg Research, Rosenberg sees the U.S. Federal Reserve ending its rate hikes soon -- but says the economic damage has been done. He expects U.S. businesses and consumers to cut spending, unemployment to rise, and companies and consumers to turn increasingly cautious as the U.S. economy slips into recession.
And, for anyone who is convinced that the Fed will pull off an economic "soft landing," Rosenberg has two words: Dream on.

'No chance we're having a soft landing': Stock-market strategist David Rosenberg gives Powell's Fed no credit — and no mercy

www.morningstar.com www.morningstar.com
 
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NoDopes said:
I'm currently in a remote work situation.. and it's clear, several people are sandbagging their work. A few we are certain were working 2 jobs at once and those were fired. Still.. tolerance levels for several significant slackers is still way too high. There is a worker on my team that hasn't delivered almost any work in the 14 months I've been on the project, but he's an employee and they refuse to let him go. He's had 3 warnings.

Some companies have gone so far as to monitor every keystroke, activate webcams to monitor employees face to make sure they are engaged. These Orwellian measures are likely to increase as workers continue to abuse the privilege.
Click to expand...
Below is an article I linked. One part of that article is this:

MarketWatch: Given your position on recession, are you surprised that the U.S. labor market is still so strong?

Rosenberg: Not a bit. The unemployment rate is the laggiest of the lagging indicators. It's not unusual for the unemployment rate to be going down as the recession starts. The only thing that's really different this time is that companies are hoarding labor, which is why employment has been so slow to contract, and what they've been doing instead is cutting hours.
 
"REGIONAL"... Just like fuel, food, insurance, building materials and all forms of maintenance.
Very difficult to "get ahead of the curve" on finding a place to reside while working or nearing retirement.
The financial world could "turn on a dime" while you are sound to sleep.
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Lazzara, however, noted that “regional differences continue to be striking,” with cities in the so-called Rust Belt outperforming the rest of the nation. Prices in Chicago gained 4.6%; in Cleveland, 3.9%; and New York, 3.5% — making for the top performers. The Midwest took over the South’s reign as the strongest region.

www.cnbc.com

Home prices continue to climb with 'striking' regional differences, says S&P Case-Shiller

Home prices continue to heat but regional differences are widening, and the mid-west is leading the way.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
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I have noticed a new phrase recently when analysist and economic forecasters are telling us what they see when looking into their crystal ball and reading their tea leaves.
The new phrase is "Priced In".

Here is a good example:
Despite an improving inflation picture, the Federal Reserve is expected on Wednesday to approve what would be the 11th interest rate increase since March 2022.
Investors are hoping it will be the last one for a long time.
Markets are pricing in an absolute certainty that the Fed will approve a quarter percentage point hike that will take its benchmark borrowing rate to a target range of 5.25%-5.5%. That would push the upper boundary of the federal funds rate to its highest level since January 2001.

Recently we saw airline pilots and UPS (Teamsters) sign contracts with substantial pay increases over the next 4 - 5 years.
America is, once again, trapped in a downward spiral. Inflation will not be tamed for the next 4 years.
Inflation has now been "priced in" everything all the way to 2027.

 
Have a sip of the "Koolaid" and read the opinion of a guy about to lose his job.
Koolaid 1.jpg___________________
‘The housing recession is over,’ real-estate group says, as pending home sales tick up for the first time in 4 months

U.S. pending home sales rose in June, the National Association of Realtors said on Thursday.

www.housingwire.com

Pending home sales rose 0.3% in June, the first increase in 3 months

After dropping slightly month over month in May, pending home sales ticked back up in June, rising 0.3%. The NAR expects a big rebound in existing-sales next year.
www.housingwire.com www.housingwire.com
 
"Hopeful" is not a plan. The small increases of the interest rate by Jerome Powell and the FED Reserve are actually driving inflation up. The largest corporations in the world are factoring in a 10% inflation rate for the next 4 years. Paul Volcker made things right.
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Minneapolis Fed chief Kashkari hopeful US economy can avoid recession as inflation fight continues​

www.foxbusiness.com

Minneapolis Fed chief Kashkari hopeful US economy can avoid recession as inflation fight continues

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Sunday that Fed policymakers are increasingly hopeful of achieving a "soft landing" that tames inflation without causing a deep recession.
www.foxbusiness.com www.foxbusiness.com

waysandmeans.house.gov

J. Smith: Biden’s Inflation Crisis is Even Worse Than Jimmy Carter’s - House Committee on Ways and Means

“Reckless spending by President Biden and Washington Democrats ignited and has thrown more fuel on the inflation fire,” Ways and Means Republican and Republican Leader of the House Committee on Budget Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO) writes in a new op-ed for Fox News, warning that President Biden’s...
waysandmeans.house.gov waysandmeans.house.gov
 
Slice it or dice it... It don't matter. So,e of the largest, mismanaged companies will start to disappear. In this case, the cost of shipping freight will increase as the recession deepens.
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Bankruptcy-bound trucking firm Yellow
received a whopping $700 million in Covid pandemic relief loans three years ago after Trump administration officials pushed for it despite objections from the Defense Department.
Yellow has repaid just $230 out of the $729.2 million in principal it still owes the U.S. Treasury for those loans, according to a government watchdog’s report in May. That single payment was made in June 2021.
The Teamsters Union, which represents Yellow workers, blasted the freight carrier in a statement Sunday and highlighted the Covid loans.
“Yellow has historically proven that it could not manage itself despite billions of dollars in worker concessions and hundreds of millions in bailout funding from the federal government,” Teamsters General President Sean M O’Brien said.
Yellow told staff on Friday that it is completely shutting down, which would put 30,000 workers out of their jobs, and the Teamsters said the company plans to file for bankruptcy.

www.cnbc.com

Teamsters blast bankruptcy-bound Yellow, cite $700 million Covid loan firm got from Trump White House

Trucking giant Yellow is expected to let got 30,000 workers. It repaid just $230 in principal on a Covid relief loan it obtained from the Trump adminsitration.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
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A few weeks ago, Anchor’s parent company Sapporo USA shocked the industry and fans with the news that it was closing the brewery because of a “combination of challenging economic factors and declining sales since 2016.” The brewery’s assets, including its taprooms and recipes, are being turned over to liquidators this week for a possible auction.
 
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(Reuters) - CVS Health is shedding 5,000 jobs to help reduce costs as the U.S. pharmacy chain sharpens its focus on healthcare services, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.
CVS added that the jobs affected will primarily be corporate positions, according to the report, citing a memo reviewed by WSJ.
CVS did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
www.reuters.com

CVS to shed 5,000 jobs in cost-cutting push, Wall Street Journal reports

U.S. pharmacy chain CVS Health is cutting 5,000 jobs, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, citing a staff memo.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
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