• Watch Out for Scammers!

    We've now added a color code for all accounts. Orange accounts are new members, Blue are full members, and Green are Supporters. If you get a message about a sale from an orange account, make sure you pay attention before sending any money!

Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

To explain, while the crowd screamed recession throughout 2021 and 2022 and priced in a Fed pivot, we warned those bets would go bust. In a nutshell: long-term interest rates were too low, wages were too high, and consumers still had plenty of cash in their bank accounts. Add it all up, and they did not support a recession.

 
Exodus of CEO's continues.
____________
It’s a time of upheaval for payment companies PayPal Holdings and Square—and an opportunity for patient investors.
Both PayPal (ticker: PYPL) and Block (SQ)-owned Square will have new chief executives in the coming weeks. While PayPal’s shift was part of a succession plan communicated to Wall Street earlier this year, Square’s transition was more sudden with plans announced via a regulatory filing after Monday’s close.

 
My hope is when 2023 rolls in all of you guy's can say - Look, Hobo was wrong.
Let's watch it unfold.

Edit title for BFC

You're like our resident broken clock. Only right twice a day.

Maybe if you didn't live in a shithole state with no real economy........................but living out west is lovely

hahahahaha
 
To explain, while the crowd screamed recession throughout 2021 and 2022 and priced in a Fed pivot, we warned those bets would go bust. In a nutshell: long-term interest rates were too low, wages were too high, and consumers still had plenty of cash in their bank accounts. Add it all up, and they did not support a recession.


Do you have any original thought? Or just selectively cut and paste headlines that fit your narrative?
 

New orders for manufactured goods in the US decreased by 2.1% from the previous month to $579.4 million in July of 2023, less than market expectations of a 2.5 percent fall and after four consecutive months of increases. It compared with an upwardly revised 2.3 percent rise in June. Demand for transportation equipment, also down following four consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, down by $16.5 billion or 14.3 percent to $98.6 billion, mainly due to nondefense aircraft and parts. Demand was also down for primary metals (-0.1 percent vs 0.1 percent in June) and computers and electronic products. On the other hand, demand for nondurable goods increased by $3.1 billion or 1.1 percent to $293.9 billion


One month's change? OMFG the world is ending............LOL

Meanwhile in flyover country
 
Both disappointing as well as concerning. Jerome Powell is continuing to circle the airport waiting on favorable conditions to try a "soft landing".
He will run out of fuel long before the conditions for a soft landing present themselves.
__________
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in a decision released Wednesday, while also indicating it still expects one more hike before the end of the year and fewer cuts than previously indicated next year.
That final increase, if realized, would do it for this cycle, according to projections the central bank released at the end of its two-day meeting. If the Fed goes ahead with the move, it would make a full dozen hikes since the policy tightening began in March 2022.
Markets had fully priced in no move at this meeting, which kept the fed funds rate in a targeted range between 5.25%-5%, the highest in some 22 years. The rate fixes what banks charge each other for overnight lending but also spills over into many forms of consumer debt.
While the no-hike was expected, there was considerable uncertainty over where the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee would go from here. Judging from documents released Wednesday, the bias appears towards more restrictive policy and a higher-for-longer approach to interest rates.


 
American's will soon learn the meaning of "Do Without".
1695310080116.png

 
  • Wow
Reactions: DIBBS and NoDopes
A sign of the things to come.
__________
Credit card companies are racking up losses at the fastest pace in almost 30 years, outside of the Great Financial Crisis, according to Goldman Sachs.
Credit card losses bottomed in September 2021, and while initial increases were likely reversals from stimulus, they have been rapidly rising since the first quarter of 2022. Since that time, it’s an increasing rate of losses only seen in recent history during the recession of 2008.
It is far from over, the firm predicts.


 
There's lots of data points available right now that show a lot of economic indicators breaking previous recession milestones. The only thing missing is the spark from the .gov / MSM to get the sheeple all stampeding in the other direction.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hobo Hilton
Get you some...
____________
My estimation of global official gold reserves hit 38,764 tonnes in Q2 2023, breaking its previous record from 1965. The new high confirms the world has entered a new era of gold. Central banks will continue to accumulate gold and the metal’s role in the international monetary system will increase to the detriment of the US dollar.

 
The FED Reserve is so far removed from the average American they are sounding like they are from another planet.
Kashkari is saying the economy is much stronger than they realized.
The trillions of USD's the government is printing and handing out is keeping things afloat.
Shut the flow of US Government money off and that would give a clear picture of how weak the economy is.
Until interest rates are higher than inflation they are just kicking the can down the road.
___________

Sept 25 (Reuters) - Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Monday that given the surprising resilience of the U.S. economy, the Fed probably needs to raise borrowing rates further and keep them high for some time to bring inflation back down to 2%.
"If the economy is fundamentally much stronger than we realized, on the margin, that would tell me rates probably have to go a little bit higher, and then be held higher for longer to cool things off," he said at an event at the Wharton School of Business, a recording of which was made available late on Monday.
The Fed last week held its policy rate steady in a range of 5.25%-5.50%, but signaled it is likely not yet done raising rates, with one more interest-rate hike by the end of the year seen as likely appropriate by the majority of Fed policymakers.
"I'm one of those folks," said Kashkari, who is considered one of the Fed's more hawkish policymakers.
U.S. central bankers also indicated they are likely to keep rates high longer than earlier thought, with less than half expecting to cut rates to below 5% next year, and one indicating the policy rate ought to end 2024 above 6%.


 
As Bigfatcock would say "They run this article every month"... The only thing changed is the date... LOL

I’ve been reading this same old story so long that I used to read it in the print newspaper, lol.

There will always be broke people who suck at money.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: Hobo Hilton
Jerome Powell, grasping at straws. Any of you guys who have followed my information of how the FED Reserve has been dragging their feet for the past 2 years know that I, for one, understand what they have been saying. They are clueless as to why 1) the country is going down a bottomless rabbit hole, 2) the FED Reserve has been paving the way to the rabbit hole and 3) they will never raise the interest rate above the inflation rate. This I do understand. History is repeating itself.
____________________________________
Jerome says:

The Federal Reserve’s ability to influence the economy depends on whether “people understand what we are saying,” Chair Jerome Powell said, highlighting the importance of work done by economic educators.
When Fed officials publish their projections for interest rates and the economy, “one of our goals is to influence spending and investment decisions today and in the months ahead,” Powell said in comments prepared for a town hall event with teachers in Washington Thursday.
“That will only be the case if people understand what we are saying and what it means for their own finances.”
The Fed chair didn’t comment on his outlook for rates or the economy.
Policymakers left the target range for their benchmark rate unchanged earlier this month at 5.25% to 5.5% — a 22-year high.
But fresh quarterly projections showed 12 of 19 officials favored another rate hike in 2023, underscoring a desire to ensure inflation continues to decelerate. US central bankers projected fewer cuts than previously anticipated in 2024, in part due to a stronger labor market.
Powell said that economic educators are “also conducting monetary policy” through their teaching as they impart knowledge that is instrumental in how the central bank promotes a healthy economy.
 
Part of an article from 6 months ago. Sum's up the developing situation nicely.

“The US dollar is widely accepted around the world as a pretty apolitical device, it's not subject to too much political influence,” he said. “What we saw last year is, it actually does have some political influence. The central bankers, the people that are responsible for the store of value within each currency, within each country's central bank itself, are starting to realize that they may have a little bit too much U.S. dollar exposure. Where are they going? To gold.”

 
I’ve been reading this same old story so long that I used to read it in the print newspaper, lol.

There will always be broke people who suck at money.
What about people watching the cost of living outpace their salary? Level up or struggle? We can't all be at the top. When the middle gets squeezed too hard I think bad things will happen.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hobo Hilton
The fed has a new program to exchange those instruments for cash at par until they mature. It's already in the 100s of billions to banks.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hobo Hilton
To a person born in 1998, who joined the work force at 20 years old, the norm is to have very low interest payments. That era has ended.

This momentous shift in the outlook for rates has profound implications for policy, business and people. While higher interest rates are good news for savers, businesses and consumers have become used to paying nothing for money over the past 15 years. The adjustment to a higher-for-longer rate environment could be painful, manifesting in failed business models and unaffordable homes and cars.

 
  • Like
Reactions: devildog93
Not what the politicians want to hear....

“I suspect we may well need to raise the fed funds rate once more this year and then hold it there for some time as we accumulate more information on economic developments and assess the effects of the tightening in financial conditions that has already occurred,” Mester said in the text of a speech to a group in ...2 hours ago
 
LONDON, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Hedge funds using computers to trade equities are expecting to start selling to the tune of $20 billion to $30 billion in the next two weeks given retreating stock markets, a UBS (UBSG.S) note seen by Reuters shows.
Hedge funds using algorithms to follow market trends have turned neutral from bullish on stocks, the UBS note said.
The bank anticipates as much as $30 billion of outflows will soon hit markets, potentially exacerbating the downward move in shares, as these hedge funds start selling stock to follow the recent negative performance.
This will be the first time these hedge funds will be net short equity markets since November 2022, the bank said.

 
  • Like
Reactions: devildog93
I've followed Albert Edwards through many economic cycles and upheavals.
He is in the UK. He can't quite see conditions in the USA like we can.
He likens conditions to "just like 1987". Agreed, there are similarities. I disagree it is "just like" any time in the past.
The difference is there was still some "work ethics" left in American's. We worked our way out of that Rabbit Hole.
Today, those of us attempting to work out of this Rabbit Hole are being blocked in by politicians, 4 million illegals, 2 generations of children still living at home with parents, 1 million with college degrees not working in that field, millions of free riders who work the system and bring down more than a guy working a good paying 40 hour job... And that is just the start of the challenges.
The "Plan of Hope" - A soft landing.



 

Wage suppressors doing the Lord’s work. I’m telling you that Abbot and these libtard sanctuary cities are in cahoots to suppress wages.

The outrage from politicians in the blue cities is faux outrage. They love this shit.

Now the commoner who was excited about getting $15 an hour to sling fries is genuinely pissed off that hector camacho nacho will accept federal minimum wage.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Hobo Hilton

Wage suppressors doing the Lord’s work. I’m telling you that Abbot and these libtard sanctuary cities are in cahoots to suppress wages.

The outrage from politicians in the blue cities is faux outrage. They love this shit.

Now the commoner who was excited about getting $15 an hour to sling fries is genuinely pissed off that hector camacho nacho will accept federal minimum wage.
It's been one hell of a ride....... More to come.
 
4 million illegals,
In 2007... estimated at between 20M to 38M... We've had well over 2M just under the current illegitimate administrations open borders.
 
  • Sad
Reactions: Hobo Hilton
In 1981, the yield on the 10-year bond peaked at 15.84% as can be seen in Figure 1.

 
NEW YORK, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Citigroup (C.N) managers are reviewing staff rosters to determine by November who will stay in place, be reassigned or laid off during its biggest reorganization in decades, according to a global memo to staff on Wednesday seen by Reuters.
"Some roles will change, new roles may be created, and roles that do not fit our new structure will be eliminated," Sara Wechter, the bank's chief human resources officer, wrote in the memo. "This next layer of change is scheduled to be announced in November."


 
  • Like
Reactions: devildog93
NEW YORK, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Meta (META.O) is planning to lay off employees on Wednesday in the unit of its metaverse-oriented Reality Labs division focused on creating custom silicon, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.
Employees were informed of the layoffs in a post on Meta's internal discussion forum Workplace on Tuesday. The post said they would be notified about their status with the company by early Wednesday morning, one of the sources said.


 
The recession signs are all around. Knock off parts and lack of proper maintenance are becoming obvious. Look around your area at all of the vehicles stacking up around all of the mechanic shops. Not just cars.

Emergency teams sprung into action as a FedEx plane skidded across the tarmac at Chattanooga Metropolitan Airport, in the US state of Tennessee.
They praised the crew for pulling off the landing and avoiding a “disaster”. The plane’s landing gears were not working, according to the Hamilton County Emergency Medical Services.


 
  • Like
Reactions: devildog93
The U.S. economy has added more than 2.3 million jobs this year, the unemployment rate is still below 4% and there are nearly 10 million open positions out there for anyone still looking for work.
So if a healthy jobs picture is the the cornerstone of a healthy economy, then why do so many people still think things are terrible?
It’s because the rent — along with the food, the gas and the appliances — is still too damn high. In a word: Inflation, which while heading lower in terms of its annual pace, is still far more than most people can stand and is making everything else look, if not terrible, at least less wonderful.
“You see all these high-level headline numbers, and those numbers don’t jibe with your economic reality,” said Elizabeth Crofoot, senior economist at labor analytics firm
Lightcast. “I don’t know if there’s a right or wrong, it’s just people’s reality, and aggregate economic statistics sometimes don’t reflect what people are living day to day.”

 
Sales have been anemic at the shop, I think this trend is reflecting in the global order and all these countries deciding to go to war all of a sudden. Nothing brings people together like a few military engagements.
 
The U.S. economy has added more than 2.3 million jobs this year, the unemployment rate is still below 4% and there are nearly 10 million open positions out there for anyone still looking for work.
So if a healthy jobs picture is the the cornerstone of a healthy economy, then why do so many people still think things are terrible?
It’s because the rent — along with the food, the gas and the appliances — is still too damn high. In a word: Inflation, which while heading lower in terms of its annual pace, is still far more than most people can stand and is making everything else look, if not terrible, at least less wonderful.
“You see all these high-level headline numbers, and those numbers don’t jibe with your economic reality,” said Elizabeth Crofoot, senior economist at labor analytics firm
Lightcast. “I don’t know if there’s a right or wrong, it’s just people’s reality, and aggregate economic statistics sometimes don’t reflect what people are living day to day.”

I'm not convinced that these are real positions, maybe for lowskilled labor kind of positions like restaurants or gas station teller but anything that requires a bachelors or more is dead. Hell I've seen in it in the legal market, everyone is "hiring" but no one is actually getting hired.
 
Consumers have been 'riding the wave" for several year's. The wave has played out.
1696898008262.png

As three of the nation’s biggest retailers kick off key sales week, former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon warns consumers are starting to buckle for the first time in a decade.
He’s blaming a list of headwinds weighing on consumers including inflation, higher interest rates, federal budget wrangling, polarized politics and student loan repayments — and now new global tensions connected to violence in Israel.
“That sort of pileup wears on the consumer and makes them wary,” the former Walmart U.S. CEO told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Monday. “For the first time in a long time, there’s a reason for the consumer to pause.”


 
  • Like
Reactions: NoDopes