Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

#2,801
To explain, while the crowd screamed recession throughout 2021 and 2022 and priced in a Fed pivot, we warned those bets would go bust. In a nutshell: long-term interest rates were too low, wages were too high, and consumers still had plenty of cash in their bank accounts. Add it all up, and they did not support a recession.

www.gold-eagle.com

Transitory 2.0 Is Coming for Gold

While the crowd believed the Fed when it proclaimed inflation was contained, another mistake is unfolding as we speak.
www.gold-eagle.com www.gold-eagle.com
 
#2,802
Exodus of CEO's continues.
____________
It’s a time of upheaval for payment companies PayPal Holdings and Square—and an opportunity for patient investors.
Both PayPal (ticker: PYPL) and Block (SQ)-owned Square will have new chief executives in the coming weeks. While PayPal’s shift was part of a succession plan communicated to Wall Street earlier this year, Square’s transition was more sudden with plans announced via a regulatory filing after Monday’s close.
www.marketwatch.com

Square and PayPal Are Getting New CEOs. What It Means for Their Stocks.

Both payment companies have been struggling in a post-Covid world.
www.marketwatch.com www.marketwatch.com
 
#2,803
Hobo Hilton said:
My hope is when 2023 rolls in all of you guy's can say - Look, Hobo was wrong.
Let's watch it unfold.

Edit title for BFC
Click to expand...

You're like our resident broken clock. Only right twice a day.

Maybe if you didn't live in a shithole state with no real economy........................but living out west is lovely

hahahahaha
 
#2,804
Hobo Hilton said:
To explain, while the crowd screamed recession throughout 2021 and 2022 and priced in a Fed pivot, we warned those bets would go bust. In a nutshell: long-term interest rates were too low, wages were too high, and consumers still had plenty of cash in their bank accounts. Add it all up, and they did not support a recession.

www.gold-eagle.com

Transitory 2.0 Is Coming for Gold

While the crowd believed the Fed when it proclaimed inflation was contained, another mistake is unfolding as we speak.
www.gold-eagle.com www.gold-eagle.com
Click to expand...

Do you have any original thought? Or just selectively cut and paste headlines that fit your narrative?
 
#2,805
Hobo Hilton said:

New orders for manufactured goods in the US decreased by 2.1% from the previous month to $579.4 million in July of 2023, less than market expectations of a 2.5 percent fall and after four consecutive months of increases. It compared with an upwardly revised 2.3 percent rise in June. Demand for transportation equipment, also down following four consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, down by $16.5 billion or 14.3 percent to $98.6 billion, mainly due to nondefense aircraft and parts. Demand was also down for primary metals (-0.1 percent vs 0.1 percent in June) and computers and electronic products. On the other hand, demand for nondurable goods increased by $3.1 billion or 1.1 percent to $293.9 billion​

Click to expand...

One month's change? OMFG the world is ending............LOL

Meanwhile in flyover country
apnews.com

Hundreds of flying taxis to be made in Ohio, home of the Wright brothers and astronaut legends

The same Ohio river valley where the Wright brothers pioneered human flight will soon manufacture cutting-edge electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft.
apnews.com apnews.com
 
#2,806
Both disappointing as well as concerning. Jerome Powell is continuing to circle the airport waiting on favorable conditions to try a "soft landing".
He will run out of fuel long before the conditions for a soft landing present themselves.
__________
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in a decision released Wednesday, while also indicating it still expects one more hike before the end of the year and fewer cuts than previously indicated next year.
That final increase, if realized, would do it for this cycle, according to projections the central bank released at the end of its two-day meeting. If the Fed goes ahead with the move, it would make a full dozen hikes since the policy tightening began in March 2022.
Markets had fully priced in no move at this meeting, which kept the fed funds rate in a targeted range between 5.25%-5%, the highest in some 22 years. The rate fixes what banks charge each other for overnight lending but also spills over into many forms of consumer debt.
While the no-hike was expected, there was considerable uncertainty over where the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee would go from here. Judging from documents released Wednesday, the bias appears towards more restrictive policy and a higher-for-longer approach to interest rates.

www.cnbc.com

Fed declines to hike, but points to rates staying higher for longer

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday released its decision on interest rates and updates on the economy.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
#2,807
American's will soon learn the meaning of "Do Without".
1695310080116.png

 
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#2,813
A sign of the things to come.
__________
Credit card companies are racking up losses at the fastest pace in almost 30 years, outside of the Great Financial Crisis, according to Goldman Sachs.
Credit card losses bottomed in September 2021, and while initial increases were likely reversals from stimulus, they have been rapidly rising since the first quarter of 2022. Since that time, it’s an increasing rate of losses only seen in recent history during the recession of 2008.
It is far from over, the firm predicts.

www.cnbc.com

Credit card losses are rising at the fastest pace since the Great Financial Crisis

Goldman Sachs predicts credit card losses will continue to climb through the end of 2024 or early 2025 for most issuers.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
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#2,814
There's lots of data points available right now that show a lot of economic indicators breaking previous recession milestones. The only thing missing is the spark from the .gov / MSM to get the sheeple all stampeding in the other direction.
 
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#2,816
Get you some...
____________
My estimation of global official gold reserves hit 38,764 tonnes in Q2 2023, breaking its previous record from 1965. The new high confirms the world has entered a new era of gold. Central banks will continue to accumulate gold and the metal’s role in the international monetary system will increase to the detriment of the US dollar.

oilprice.com

Unprecedented Gold Hoarding By Central Banks Heralds Financial Sea Change | OilPrice.com

World official gold holdings have reached an all-time high, indicating a shift away from the US dollar as geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties rise.
oilprice.com oilprice.com
 
#2,817
The FED Reserve is so far removed from the average American they are sounding like they are from another planet.
Kashkari is saying the economy is much stronger than they realized.
The trillions of USD's the government is printing and handing out is keeping things afloat.
Shut the flow of US Government money off and that would give a clear picture of how weak the economy is.
Until interest rates are higher than inflation they are just kicking the can down the road.
___________

Sept 25 (Reuters) - Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Monday that given the surprising resilience of the U.S. economy, the Fed probably needs to raise borrowing rates further and keep them high for some time to bring inflation back down to 2%.
"If the economy is fundamentally much stronger than we realized, on the margin, that would tell me rates probably have to go a little bit higher, and then be held higher for longer to cool things off," he said at an event at the Wharton School of Business, a recording of which was made available late on Monday.
The Fed last week held its policy rate steady in a range of 5.25%-5.50%, but signaled it is likely not yet done raising rates, with one more interest-rate hike by the end of the year seen as likely appropriate by the majority of Fed policymakers.
"I'm one of those folks," said Kashkari, who is considered one of the Fed's more hawkish policymakers.
U.S. central bankers also indicated they are likely to keep rates high longer than earlier thought, with less than half expecting to cut rates to below 5% next year, and one indicating the policy rate ought to end 2024 above 6%.

www.reuters.com

Fed's Kashkari sees another rate hike, then a hold

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Monday that given the surprising resilience of the U.S. economy, the Fed probably needs to raise borrowing rates further and keep them high for some time to bring inflation back down to 2%.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
#2,821
Hobo Hilton said:
As Bigfatcock would say "They run this article every month"... The only thing changed is the date... LOL

www.cnbc.com

60% of Americans are still living paycheck to paycheck as inflation hits workers' wages

The number of Americans who say they are stretched thin has remained stubbornly high as inflation weighs on worker paychecks.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
Click to expand...
I’ve been reading this same old story so long that I used to read it in the print newspaper, lol.

There will always be broke people who suck at money.
 
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#2,822
Jerome Powell, grasping at straws. Any of you guys who have followed my information of how the FED Reserve has been dragging their feet for the past 2 years know that I, for one, understand what they have been saying. They are clueless as to why 1) the country is going down a bottomless rabbit hole, 2) the FED Reserve has been paving the way to the rabbit hole and 3) they will never raise the interest rate above the inflation rate. This I do understand. History is repeating itself.
____________________________________
Jerome says:

The Federal Reserve’s ability to influence the economy depends on whether “people understand what we are saying,” Chair Jerome Powell said, highlighting the importance of work done by economic educators.
When Fed officials publish their projections for interest rates and the economy, “one of our goals is to influence spending and investment decisions today and in the months ahead,” Powell said in comments prepared for a town hall event with teachers in Washington Thursday.
“That will only be the case if people understand what we are saying and what it means for their own finances.”
The Fed chair didn’t comment on his outlook for rates or the economy.
Policymakers left the target range for their benchmark rate unchanged earlier this month at 5.25% to 5.5% — a 22-year high.
But fresh quarterly projections showed 12 of 19 officials favored another rate hike in 2023, underscoring a desire to ensure inflation continues to decelerate. US central bankers projected fewer cuts than previously anticipated in 2024, in part due to a stronger labor market.
Powell said that economic educators are “also conducting monetary policy” through their teaching as they impart knowledge that is instrumental in how the central bank promotes a healthy economy.
ca.finance.yahoo.com

Powell Says Public’s Understanding Key to Fed Impact on Economy

(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve’s ability to influence the economy depends on whether “people understand what we are saying,” Chair Jerome Powell said, highlighting the importance of work done by economic educators. Most Read from BloombergPakistan Rupee Set to Become Top Performing Currency...
ca.finance.yahoo.com ca.finance.yahoo.com
 
#2,824
Part of an article from 6 months ago. Sum's up the developing situation nicely.

“The US dollar is widely accepted around the world as a pretty apolitical device, it's not subject to too much political influence,” he said. “What we saw last year is, it actually does have some political influence. The central bankers, the people that are responsible for the store of value within each currency, within each country's central bank itself, are starting to realize that they may have a little bit too much U.S. dollar exposure. Where are they going? To gold.”

Gold will gain from dedollarization, and the critical shortages are not in the metals themselves - Randy Smallwood

(Kitco News) - The politicization of the U.S. dollar is forcing banks into gold, while the Fed is making capital more expensive at a time when mines need to invest in growth, according to Randy Smallwood, President and CEO of Wheaton Precious Metals and Chair of the World Gold Council.
www.kitco.com
 
#2,827
Bigfatcock said:
I’ve been reading this same old story so long that I used to read it in the print newspaper, lol.

There will always be broke people who suck at money.
Click to expand...
What about people watching the cost of living outpace their salary? Level up or struggle? We can't all be at the top. When the middle gets squeezed too hard I think bad things will happen.
 
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#2,830
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#2,831
To a person born in 1998, who joined the work force at 20 years old, the norm is to have very low interest payments. That era has ended.

This momentous shift in the outlook for rates has profound implications for policy, business and people. While higher interest rates are good news for savers, businesses and consumers have become used to paying nothing for money over the past 15 years. The adjustment to a higher-for-longer rate environment could be painful, manifesting in failed business models and unaffordable homes and cars.

www.reuters.com

In the Market: US bond market signals the end of an era

The U.S. bond market is calling a moment: the age of low interest rates and inflation that began with the 2008 financial crisis has ended. What follows is unclear.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
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#2,832
Not what the politicians want to hear....

“I suspect we may well need to raise the fed funds rate once more this year and then hold it there for some time as we accumulate more information on economic developments and assess the effects of the tightening in financial conditions that has already occurred,” Mester said in the text of a speech to a group in ...2 hours ago
www.reuters.com

Fed's Mester says one more U.S. rate hike may be needed

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said Monday that the U.S. central bank most likely isn’t done raising interest rates amid ongoing inflation pressures.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
#2,833
LONDON, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Hedge funds using computers to trade equities are expecting to start selling to the tune of $20 billion to $30 billion in the next two weeks given retreating stock markets, a UBS (UBSG.S) note seen by Reuters shows.
Hedge funds using algorithms to follow market trends have turned neutral from bullish on stocks, the UBS note said.
The bank anticipates as much as $30 billion of outflows will soon hit markets, potentially exacerbating the downward move in shares, as these hedge funds start selling stock to follow the recent negative performance.
This will be the first time these hedge funds will be net short equity markets since November 2022, the bank said.
www.reuters.com

Hedge funds using computers to sell up to $30 billion of stocks soon - UBS

Hedge funds using computers to trade equities are expecting to start selling to the tune of $20 billion to $30 billion in the next two weeks given retreating stock markets, a UBS note seen by Reuters shows.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
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#2,835
I've followed Albert Edwards through many economic cycles and upheavals.
He is in the UK. He can't quite see conditions in the USA like we can.
He likens conditions to "just like 1987". Agreed, there are similarities. I disagree it is "just like" any time in the past.
The difference is there was still some "work ethics" left in American's. We worked our way out of that Rabbit Hole.
Today, those of us attempting to work out of this Rabbit Hole are being blocked in by politicians, 4 million illegals, 2 generations of children still living at home with parents, 1 million with college degrees not working in that field, millions of free riders who work the system and bring down more than a guy working a good paying 40 hour job... And that is just the start of the challenges.
The "Plan of Hope" - A soft landing.



'Just like in 1987.' Here's what could deliver a 'devastating blow' to stocks, says SocGen strategist Albert Edwards.

www.morningstar.com www.morningstar.com
 
#2,836
www.yahoo.com

New York Gov. Hochul announces 18,000 jobs for asylum seekers as city's migrant influx exceeds 125,000 people

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said the state identified 18,000 private sector job openings at 379 companies willing to hire migrants and asylum seekers.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com

Wage suppressors doing the Lord’s work. I’m telling you that Abbot and these libtard sanctuary cities are in cahoots to suppress wages.

The outrage from politicians in the blue cities is faux outrage. They love this shit.

Now the commoner who was excited about getting $15 an hour to sling fries is genuinely pissed off that hector camacho nacho will accept federal minimum wage.
 
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#2,837
Bigfatcock said:
www.yahoo.com

New York Gov. Hochul announces 18,000 jobs for asylum seekers as city's migrant influx exceeds 125,000 people

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said the state identified 18,000 private sector job openings at 379 companies willing to hire migrants and asylum seekers.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com

Wage suppressors doing the Lord’s work. I’m telling you that Abbot and these libtard sanctuary cities are in cahoots to suppress wages.

The outrage from politicians in the blue cities is faux outrage. They love this shit.

Now the commoner who was excited about getting $15 an hour to sling fries is genuinely pissed off that hector camacho nacho will accept federal minimum wage.
Click to expand...
It's been one hell of a ride....... More to come.
 
#2,838
Hobo Hilton said:
4 million illegals,
Click to expand...
In 2007... estimated at between 20M to 38M... We've had well over 2M just under the current illegitimate administrations open borders.

Illegal Aliens Estimated at 20 to 38 Million - CAPS

Contact:Diana Hull, PresidentCalifornians for Population Stabilization(805) [email protected] Report by CAPS Disputes Government Figures WASHINGTON, DC—Homeland Security’s August 31 report that 8 to 12 million illegal aliens reside in the United States grossly underestimates the number of...
capsweb.org capsweb.org
 
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#2,839
In 1981, the yield on the 10-year bond peaked at 15.84% as can be seen in Figure 1.

globalfinancialdata.com

Paul Volcker, the Man Who Changed the Equity Risk Premium

On December 9, Paul Volcker, who served as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank from 1979 to 1987, died at the age of 92. Paul Volcker changed the shape of the economy and of financial markets. The Rise and Fall of Interest Rates Paul Volcker is known for two things. He instituted the...
globalfinancialdata.com globalfinancialdata.com
www.cnbc.com

Bill Gross says the surging 10-year Treasury yield could test 5% in the short term

One-time bond king Bill Gross believes Treasury yields have the potential to shoot even higher in the short run.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
#2,840
NEW YORK, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Citigroup (C.N) managers are reviewing staff rosters to determine by November who will stay in place, be reassigned or laid off during its biggest reorganization in decades, according to a global memo to staff on Wednesday seen by Reuters.
"Some roles will change, new roles may be created, and roles that do not fit our new structure will be eliminated," Sara Wechter, the bank's chief human resources officer, wrote in the memo. "This next layer of change is scheduled to be announced in November."

www.reuters.com

Citigroup outlines layoff process, reassignments in overhaul -memo

Citigroup managers are reviewing staff rosters to determine by November who will stay in place, be reassigned or laid off during its biggest reorganization in decades, according to a global memo to staff on Wednesday seen by Reuters.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
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#2,841
NEW YORK, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Meta (META.O) is planning to lay off employees on Wednesday in the unit of its metaverse-oriented Reality Labs division focused on creating custom silicon, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.
Employees were informed of the layoffs in a post on Meta's internal discussion forum Workplace on Tuesday. The post said they would be notified about their status with the company by early Wednesday morning, one of the sources said.

www.reuters.com

Exclusive: Meta to lay off employees in metaverse silicon unit on Wednesday

Meta is planning to lay off employees on Wednesday in the unit of its metaverse-oriented Reality Labs division focused on creating custom silicon, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
#2,842
The recession signs are all around. Knock off parts and lack of proper maintenance are becoming obvious. Look around your area at all of the vehicles stacking up around all of the mechanic shops. Not just cars.

Emergency teams sprung into action as a FedEx plane skidded across the tarmac at Chattanooga Metropolitan Airport, in the US state of Tennessee.
They praised the crew for pulling off the landing and avoiding a “disaster”. The plane’s landing gears were not working, according to the Hamilton County Emergency Medical Services.

 
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#2,845
charbroiled said:
Don't you mean "Don't use these to forecast or predict future financial conditions of any kind"??? (especially when it is the CNBC/Uniparty mouthpiece is moving air)
Click to expand...
I put more trust in the white tail deer, the geese, quail and doves around my homestead.
They say it going to be a hard winter.
Get ready.
 
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#2,846
The U.S. economy has added more than 2.3 million jobs this year, the unemployment rate is still below 4% and there are nearly 10 million open positions out there for anyone still looking for work.
So if a healthy jobs picture is the the cornerstone of a healthy economy, then why do so many people still think things are terrible?
It’s because the rent — along with the food, the gas and the appliances — is still too damn high. In a word: Inflation, which while heading lower in terms of its annual pace, is still far more than most people can stand and is making everything else look, if not terrible, at least less wonderful.
“You see all these high-level headline numbers, and those numbers don’t jibe with your economic reality,” said Elizabeth Crofoot, senior economist at labor analytics firm Lightcast. “I don’t know if there’s a right or wrong, it’s just people’s reality, and aggregate economic statistics sometimes don’t reflect what people are living day to day.”

www.cnbc.com

Even as job creation surges, Americans still think the economy stinks. Here's why

Inflation is headed lower in terms of its annual pace but is still far higher than most people can stand.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
#2,849
Hobo Hilton said:
The U.S. economy has added more than 2.3 million jobs this year, the unemployment rate is still below 4% and there are nearly 10 million open positions out there for anyone still looking for work.
So if a healthy jobs picture is the the cornerstone of a healthy economy, then why do so many people still think things are terrible?
It’s because the rent — along with the food, the gas and the appliances — is still too damn high. In a word: Inflation, which while heading lower in terms of its annual pace, is still far more than most people can stand and is making everything else look, if not terrible, at least less wonderful.
“You see all these high-level headline numbers, and those numbers don’t jibe with your economic reality,” said Elizabeth Crofoot, senior economist at labor analytics firm Lightcast. “I don’t know if there’s a right or wrong, it’s just people’s reality, and aggregate economic statistics sometimes don’t reflect what people are living day to day.”

www.cnbc.com

Even as job creation surges, Americans still think the economy stinks. Here's why

Inflation is headed lower in terms of its annual pace but is still far higher than most people can stand.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
Click to expand...
I'm not convinced that these are real positions, maybe for lowskilled labor kind of positions like restaurants or gas station teller but anything that requires a bachelors or more is dead. Hell I've seen in it in the legal market, everyone is "hiring" but no one is actually getting hired.
 
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#2,850
Consumers have been 'riding the wave" for several year's. The wave has played out.
1696898008262.png

As three of the nation’s biggest retailers kick off key sales week, former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon warns consumers are starting to buckle for the first time in a decade.
He’s blaming a list of headwinds weighing on consumers including inflation, higher interest rates, federal budget wrangling, polarized politics and student loan repayments — and now new global tensions connected to violence in Israel.
“That sort of pileup wears on the consumer and makes them wary,” the former Walmart U.S. CEO told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Monday. “For the first time in a long time, there’s a reason for the consumer to pause.”

www.cnbc.com

Consumers starting to buckle for first time in a decade, former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon warns

As the nation's biggest retailers kick off key sales week, former Walmart U.S. CEO Bill Simon warns consumers are at a tipping point.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
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