Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

[lariat]

You stop inflation by dramatically reducing Federal government spending. The Federal government cannot quit spending meanwhile beating the citizens to death with inflation AND high interest rates.

Monetary inflation cannot stop at this point due to the debt that has to be repaid and is being added to daily. But prices going up or down (price inflation/deflation) are dependent upon consumer demand - what the market will bear. Its very hard to force people to buy what they don't want or cannot afford. This is the issue. If there is less activity in the economy there is less taxation through the velocity of money. In order to pay for everything that the government is doing and while transactional velocity is decreasing then taxes have to go up to pay the debt. It's to the point we have a catch-22 - how do you pay for continuing government spending with lower tax revenues.

The government isn't going to stop spending, because the politicians are not voting for the benefit of the people or the country. So we are not getting off the ride until it reaches its natural conclusion.

If the US loses reserve currency status, all bets are off.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

You stop inflation by dramatically reducing Federal government spending. The Federal government cannot quit spending meanwhile beating the citizens to death with inflation AND high interest rates.

What you say holds true for the past 3 years. But, that is not "sustainable".
Unless there is some sort of financial miracle, the buying power of the USD will continue to decline.
A quick but painful remedy would be to bring back the "Gold Standard".... But the gold inventory would have to be inventoried first.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Cracker Barrel is the latest restaurant chain to signal trouble ahead as it sees fewer diners​

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. late Thursday called for lower profit and sales ahead as it welcomed fewer diners to its restaurants and slashed its dividend, saying it wants to focus on growing the business.
Cracker Barrel said it expects fiscal third- and fourth-quarter results to be below its expectations mostly “due to weaker-than-anticipated traffic,” it said. It did not provide figures for the two upcoming quarters.
Shares of Cracker Barrel CBRL, +1.22% dropped 10.3% in the extended session Thursday, after ending the regular session up 1.2%
The company is scheduled to report its fiscal third-quarter results on May 30. Analysts polled by FactSet expect the chain to report revenue of $835 million in the fiscal third quarter and of $913 million in the fiscal fourth quarter, which would compare with $833 million in the third quarter of 2023 and $837 million in the fourth quarter of 2023.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Jerome and his 'work from home" excuses...

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell contracted COVID-19 for the second time and is working from home while he recovers, the Fed said Friday.
“Chair Powell tested positive for COVID-19 late yesterday and is experiencing symptoms,” a Fed spokesperson said in a statement. “Following Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance, he is staying away from others and working at home.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-powell-tests-positive-for-covid-for-second-time-f84cc069

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The FED's plan is working... More inflation needed to slow things down.

Redfin Reports the Median U.S. Home Price Hit an All-Time High of $434,000 in April

SEATTLE, May 17, 2024--(NASDAQ: RDFN) — The median U.S. home sale price rose 6.2% year over year in April to $433,558—the highest level on record, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

“The labor market was red-hot in 2021 and 2022, but that level of feverish activity has calmed down,” Harry Holzer, a Georgetown University public policy professor and former Labor Department chief economist, told LinkedIn earlier this week. “The Fed wanted it to [come] down as a battle against inflation, which means taking some wind out of the sails. Any calming down in the labor market is going to affect new entrants first.”
____________________________________
Here is a good example of something I have been explaining to some young people in college. A young person finishing high school is bombarded with information of what degree is being hired the fastest... Fast forward 4 - 5 years and the "cycle" has evolved. There are some degrees that are 'timeless" in their demand. The same can be said for becoming a journeyman in the "Trades". Serving a 4 - 5 year apprentice program will get a young person into a profession with a nice pay package.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/17/the-top-industries-hiring-2024-grads-according-to-linkedin.html

 

[Hobo Hilton]

It’ll work…eventually. I mean, it’s going to cause a deflationary period, but I’m cool with that.

It is working for the big banks. They have Jerome Powell in their back pocket.

NEW YORK, May 20 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) on Monday raised its forecast for net interest income (NII), or the difference between what it makes on loans and pays out on deposits, to $91 billion, excluding the markets division.
Shares of the bank rose about 1% in premarket trading ahead of the bank's investor day event scheduled to kick off in New York later in the morning.
JPMorgan's previous forecasts for NII had disappointed analysts as they were expecting the bank to reap greater benefits from persistently higher interest rates.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/jpmorgan-expects-2024-interest-income-rise-91-billion-2024-05-20/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=Daily-Briefing&utm_term=052024&user_email=f3e2c3aea7d0c0e9578e509938748e2561814bda768950cda356e6e7df4fd38b

 

[Lightning8]

“The labor market was red-hot in 2021 and 2022, but that level of feverish activity has calmed down,” Harry Holzer, a Georgetown University public policy professor and former Labor Department chief economist, told LinkedIn earlier this week. “The Fed wanted it to [come] down as a battle against inflation, which means taking some wind out of the sails. Any calming down in the labor market is going to affect new entrants first.”
____________________________________
Here is a good example of something I have been explaining to some young people in college. A young person finishing high school is bombarded with information of what degree is being hired the fastest... Fast forward 4 - 5 years and the "cycle" has evolved. There are some degrees that are 'timeless" in their demand. The same can be said for becoming a journeyman in the "Trades". Serving a 4 - 5 year apprentice program will get a young person into a profession with a nice pay package.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/17/the-top-industries-hiring-2024-grads-according-to-linkedin.html

AI will take the white collar jobs in 2024+ and illegal immigrants will take the blue collar jobs. The middle class is screwed.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

All of those home owners with the low mortgage rates can not "afford" to sell their house and move because they can't qualify for a 7% APR mortgage. So, there are fewer older homes to chose from. The young buyer's are being forced to look at "New Construction Homes".

If you’re in the market for a home, it’s likely some of the properties you see will be new builds.
About 33.4% of single-family homes available for sale in the first quarter were newly built, almost double from pre-pandemic levels, according to a new report by Redfin, a real estate brokerage site.
“It doesn’t mean necessarily that new construction has ramped up,” said Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders. Home builders are still constructing about a million single-family homes a year, he said.“What’s happened is that the level of resale inventory has shrunk,” Dietz said.

One-third of single-family homes for sale are newly built, report finds. Here’s what buyers need to know​

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/20/what-buyers-need-to-consider-with-a-newly-built-house.html

 

[NoDopes]

Hope all those real estate agents were saving all that extra cash. With SC ruling the seller doesn't have to fund the buyers agents, they will be left trading for cans of beans.

 

[Bigfatcock]

Hope all those real estate agents were saving all that extra cash. With SC ruling the seller doesn't have to fund the buyers agents, they will be left trading for cans of beans.

I have beans, but I am only willing to trade for 18 and over female ass.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Target earnings miss, sales fall as consumers buy fewer groceries and home goods​

Shares of the company fell about 8% in premarket trading.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/22/target-tgt-q1-2024-earnings.html

 

[IronSkillet]

should of stayed in the lane it had before it’s half hearted attempt to enter into groceries. Non-competitive pricing with limited selection, honestly believe they cater to a specific niche customer that will soon be jumping ship and saving a few dollars by stopping at the Walmart.

 

[NoDopes]

should of stayed in the lane it had before it’s half hearted attempt to enter into groceries. Non-competitive pricing with limited selection, honestly believe they cater to a specific niche customer that will soon be jumping ship and saving a few dollars by stopping at the Walmart.

Also doesn't help they went full retard with LGBTQN++ and rapists welcome in women's bathrooms and full groomer products proudly displayed for children.

 

[lariat]

McDonald's $5 meal deal causes outrage among restaurant owners

An independent group of McDonald's franchise owners have spoken out about the the chain's $5 meal bundle planned for this summer.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The FED Reserve will continue to "skew" the numbers to make it look like inflation is decreasing. There has been no decrease in inflation. The goal of 2% inflation rate is a pipe dream. 2% inflation erodes the buying power of the American people. If a house is infested with termites and the pest control company says "We killed 98% of the termites and you just have to live with the rest"... How would the customer feel ?

Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday said he would need to see more data showing that inflation and the economy is easing before cutting rates.
“The economy now seems to be evolving closer to what the Committee expected,” he said. “Nevertheless, in the absence of a significant weakening in the labor market, I need to see several more months of good inflation data before I would be comfortable supporting an easing in the stance of monetary policy.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/22/us-treasurys-investors-weigh-fed-speaker-comments.html

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Expected..... Just another word for "HOPE".

Worldwide

LONDON, May 22 (Reuters) - Inflation in Britain eased less than expected and a key core measure of prices barely dropped, prompting investors to pull bets on a Bank of England rate cut next month which could have boosted embattled Prime Minister Rishi Sunak before an election.
The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.3% in the 12 months to April, down sharply from March's 3.2% increase and its lowest since July 2021, the Office for National Statistics said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-inflation-rate-slows-23-april-2024-05-22/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=Daily-Briefing&utm_term=052224&user_email=f3e2c3aea7d0c0e9578e509938748e2561814bda768950cda356e6e7df4fd38b

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Today's financial mystery:

Home sales slipped unexpectedly in April, despite big gains in supply​

And in the West, sales were down 2.6% for the month and rose 1.3% from one year before. The median price in the West was $629,600, up 9.3% from April 2023.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/22/april-existing-home-sales.html

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Clueless:

WASHINGTON, May 22 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a May 1 press conference he didn't want to talk about economic "hypotheticals," but that's what he and other U.S. central bank officials have shifted towards in discussing monetary policy that has hit an uncertain juncture in the effort to tame inflation.
Dropping what had been explicit guidance about the likelihood of interest rate cuts this year, Powell and other Fed officials are instead focusing attention on broadly different near-term paths the economy might follow, and their likely reaction to each case.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-shifts-talk-scenarios-policy-grows-less-certain-2024-05-22/

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The worldwide financial markets are awakening to the incompetence of the FED Reserve.

Fed officials seem like they have ‘no idea’ what is going on with U.S. inflation, strategist says​

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/22/fed-officials-seem-to-have-no-idea-about-inflation-strategist-says-.html

 

[Emerson0311]

The worldwide financial markets are awakening to the incompetence of the FED Reserve.

Fed officials seem like they have ‘no idea’ what is going on with U.S. inflation, strategist says​

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/22/fed-officials-seem-to-have-no-idea-about-inflation-strategist-says-.html

Anyone with a basic financial brain has known that for years.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

A major source of inflation for the average American family.​

Average U.S. vehicle age hits record 12.6 years as high prices force people to keep them longer​

“It’s prohibitively high for a lot of households now,” said Todd Campau, aftermarket leader for S&P Global Mobility. “So I think consumers are being painted into the corner of having to keep the vehicle on the road longer.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/22/aging-cars-trucks-suvs.html

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Dollar ebbs as markets await key global inflation reports​

Changes to how the Federal Reserve manages one of world’s most crucial piles of assets pose “underappreciated” risks to financial markets, BlackRock warned in a Friday client note.


The Fed in early May said it plans to switch up how quickly it will look to shrink its $7.3 trillion balance sheet beginning June 1, a move that was “barely a side note” in financial markets, according to Tom Becker, portfolio manager at BlackRock’s Global Tactical Asset Allocation team.


But it was not a minor development in the eyes of BlackRock BLK, -0.34%, which held a record $10.5 trillion in assets in the first quarter, further entrenching it as the world’s largest asset manager.

The Fed said its “quantitative-tightening” program will soon allow only up to $25 billion of maturing Treasury securities to roll off its balance sheet each month, instead of the previous $60 billion cap.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-7-3-trillion-balance-sheet-is-worrying-the-worlds-largest-asset-manager-heres-why-a1e83dc7

 

[D̷e̷v̷i̷l̷D̷o̷c̷A̷Z̷]

Cracker Barrel is the latest restaurant chain to signal trouble ahead as it sees fewer diners​

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. late Thursday called for lower profit and sales ahead as it welcomed fewer diners to its restaurants and slashed its dividend, saying it wants to focus on growing the business.
Cracker Barrel said it expects fiscal third- and fourth-quarter results to be below its expectations mostly “due to weaker-than-anticipated traffic,” it said. It did not provide figures for the two upcoming quarters.
Shares of Cracker Barrel CBRL, +1.22% dropped 10.3% in the extended session Thursday, after ending the regular session up 1.2%
The company is scheduled to report its fiscal third-quarter results on May 30. Analysts polled by FactSet expect the chain to report revenue of $835 million in the fiscal third quarter and of $913 million in the fiscal fourth quarter, which would compare with $833 million in the third quarter of 2023 and $837 million in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Cracker Barrel losing money?!

I thought this was boomer paradise, I guess those pensions arnt as good as I was led to believe.