Next time you call the NFA branch to check on the status of your transfer application, ask them the received date of the transfer. The "pending" date is when the application was entered into the database and nothing more. More often than not, when a check is cashed months down the road: a) the dealer didn't send in the application and check, b) the application didn't have tax payment, c) the application was sent to the wrong location and delayed, d) the application was "lost" in the mail or e) all of the above.
While I'm not defending ATF or blaming any one dealer, the proof can be had by asking the right questions. When I was at the SHOT show this year, I had a chance encounter with the chief of the NFA branch and one of the supervisors. I asked some pertinent questions and was given straight forward answers. Here is what I remember/understand from what we discussed:
When the application and the check arrive in Atlanta--Bank of America does the processing, not ATF---they are sorted by the date of their arrival and the checks are processed on a first come first served basis. As a general rule the checks are cashed within a week or two of arriving at the Atlanta facility. Next the applications (sans check) are packaged and sent back to Martinsburg where they wait to be entered into the database by the NFA staff. Once they are entered (generally two plus weeks from when they arrive in Martinsburg), they are given a folder number, a pending date and boxed in chronological order with other applications served by a specific examiner.
Fast forward five plus months and they are finally dusted off by a research assistant (I think that is what they are called) and checked for errors and omissions. If there isn't any problems with the application they are given to the examiner for final scrutiny and approval.
When I had a follow up conversation on a brief tour back in late February, we were told that January and December saw the largest increase in volume of applications in the history of the NFA. Unfortunately I see the processing times of all applications taking much longer in the coming months.