Statistician Reconsiders Gun Control After Reviewing the Data

Tucker301

Groundskeeper
Banned !
Feb 13, 2015
9,494
23,366
Southern VA
It's refreshing to see someone actually looking at the facts for a change.


https://reason.com/blog/2017/10/04/a-statistician-reconsiders-her-support-f

With so many people insisting that the Las Vegas massacre confirms what they've always thought about gun control, it is refreshing to hear from someone who changed her mind on the subject after considering the evidence. "My colleagues and I at FiveThirtyEight spent three months analyzing all 33,000 lives ended by guns each year in the United States," Leah Libresco, a statistician who used to work for the data journalism site, writes in The Washington Post. "We looked at what interventions might have saved those people, and the case for the policies I'd lobbied for crumbled when I examined the evidence."

Regarding the much-touted gun control laws of Britain and Australia, Libresco found that "neither nation experienced drops in mass shootings or other gun-related crime that could be attributed to their buybacks and bans." Looking into bans on so-called assault weapons, she concluded that the category is an arbitrary construct with little practical significance.

What about the silencers that Hillary Clinton thinks could have raised the death toll in Las Vegas if they had been used there? "In real life," Libresco writes, "silencers limit hearing damage for shooters but don't make gunfire dangerously quiet. An AR-15 with a silencer is about as loud as a jackhammer."
Libresco notes that "two-thirds of gun deaths in the United States every year are suicides," and "almost no proposed restriction would make it meaningfully harder for people with guns on hand to use them." But she argues that "older men, who make up the largest share of gun suicides, need better access to people who could care for them and get them help." She also recommends targeted measures aimed at protecting women from domestic violence and preventing deadly disputes among young men.

"A reduction in gun deaths is most likely to come from finding smaller chances for victories and expanding those solutions as much as possible," Libresco concludes. "We save lives by focusing on a range of tactics to protect the different kinds of potential victims and reforming potential killers, not from sweeping bans focused on the guns themselves."

Libresco says she still does not endorse gun ownership, "but I can't endorse policies whose only selling point is that gun owners hate them." The distinction seems to be lost on politicians like Clinton, who define good policy as whatever the NRA doesn't want.
 
More inconvenient facts: Honduras has the highest murder rate per capital in the world and has had a total ban on all personally owned firearms in place for decades. Switzerland has the lowest murder rate per capita and REQUIRES its citizens to own a military rifle.
 
"Regarding the much-touted gun control laws of Britain and Australia, Libresco found that "neither nation experienced drops in mass shootings or other gun-related crime that could be attributed to their buybacks and bans." Well I am all in favour of looking at the data, and I can't speak about Aus but Libresco has done a poor job to make that statement. Britain does not have many "mass shootings" however you want to define that term. We had three in my lifetime I can remember - Hungerford, Dunblane and one in North West England. There are more mass shootings in the US per week (according to your data and definitions) than we have had in my 50+ years on the planet. So what ? Well I am not sure a statistical analysis of our experience is going to tell anybody very much. Equally I don't think we are a great comparison as we (as a nation) did not have the formative experiences of the US so we do not think about firearms in the same way. The phrase you quote is weak as it conflates two issues - mass shootings and gun crime. Did we experience a drop post the semi auto ban post Hungerford? Well yes. To that date we had 1 after that we have had none. Did we experience a drop post the handgun ban post Dunblane? Well yes. As above we had 1 and none since. Was that solely as a result of the ban? Who knows. But try presenting an evidence based argument and you are obviously going to lose. Hard one that. After the last one, there was no change to gun restrictions but a bit more medical input to the process. Did gun crime reduce post bans? No of course not as crimbo's over here do not apply for a licence for a sawn-off with the good reason - Bank Robbery. Equally incidents where shots are fired are rare and make the national news. Are we a heinously suppressed population being deprived of firearms? Well no. Attitudes are different, our culture is different. This is a small highly populated island largely. If the law changed tomorrow would lots of people run out and buy a gun? No, they are just not interested really. The only time most people hear about guns is on the TV when some nutter (usually in the US) shoots loads of people. So its hardly surprising their default view is negative. So while I don't have direct experience on your situation means I will not make comment, I would point out that relying on our experience to make an argument in the US is a road to nowhere and Libresco has been 'exercising' the data to draw a parallel.
 
"Regarding the much-touted gun control laws of Britain and Australia, Libresco found that "neither nation experienced drops in mass shootings or other gun-related crime that could be attributed to their buybacks and bans." Well I am all in favour of looking at the data, and I can't speak about Aus but Libresco has done a poor job to make that statement. Britain does not have many "mass shootings" however you want to define that term. We had three in my lifetime I can remember - Hungerford, Dunblane and one in North West England. There are more mass shootings in the US per week (according to your data and definitions) than we have had in my 50+ years on the planet. So what ? Well I am not sure a statistical analysis of our experience is going to tell anybody very much. Equally I don't think we are a great comparison as we (as a nation) did not have the formative experiences of the US so we do not think about firearms in the same way. The phrase you quote is weak as it conflates two issues - mass shootings and gun crime. Did we experience a drop post the semi auto ban post Hungerford? Well yes. To that date we had 1 after that we have had none. Did we experience a drop post the handgun ban post Dunblane? Well yes. As above we had 1 and none since. Was that solely as a result of the ban? Who knows. But try presenting an evidence based argument and you are obviously going to lose. Hard one that. After the last one, there was no change to gun restrictions but a bit more medical input to the process. Did gun crime reduce post bans? No of course not as crimbo's over here do not apply for a licence for a sawn-off with the good reason - Bank Robbery. Equally incidents where shots are fired are rare and make the national news. Are we a heinously suppressed population being deprived of firearms? Well no. Attitudes are different, our culture is different. This is a small highly populated island largely. If the law changed tomorrow would lots of people run out and buy a gun? No, they are just not interested really. The only time most people hear about guns is on the TV when some nutter (usually in the US) shoots loads of people. So its hardly surprising their default view is negative. So while I don't have direct experience on your situation means I will not make comment, I would point out that relying on our experience to make an argument in the US is a road to nowhere and Libresco has been 'exercising' the data to draw a parallel.[/QUOTE

I don't mean to sound condescending, but you must remember that we're born as free men in the United States. We're free citizens of the United States w/ rights given to us by God, which means that we're not subjects of a crown, nor are we beholden to a central figurehead, or a monarchy. We do not answer to the government; the government is designed to answer to us, the free citizenry.
 
"I don't mean to sound condescending, but you must remember that we're born as free men in the United States. We're free citizens of the United States w/ rights given to us by God, which means that we're not subjects of a crown, nor are we beholden to a central figurehead, or a monarchy. We do not answer to the government; the government is designed to answer to us, the free citizenry."

True 'dat. Thanks for posting.
 
"Regarding the much-touted gun control laws of Britain and Australia, Libresco found that "neither nation experienced drops in mass shootings or other gun-related crime that could be attributed to their buybacks and bans." Well I am all in favour of looking at the data, and I can't speak about Aus but Libresco has done a poor job to make that statement. Britain does not have many "mass shootings" however you want to define that term. We had three in my lifetime I can remember - Hungerford, Dunblane and one in North West England. There are more mass shootings in the US per week (according to your data and definitions) than we have had in my 50+ years on the planet. So what ? Well I am not sure a statistical analysis of our experience is going to tell anybody very much. Equally I don't think we are a great comparison as we (as a nation) did not have the formative experiences of the US so we do not think about firearms in the same way. The phrase you quote is weak as it conflates two issues - mass shootings and gun crime. Did we experience a drop post the semi auto ban post Hungerford? Well yes. To that date we had 1 after that we have had none. Did we experience a drop post the handgun ban post Dunblane? Well yes. As above we had 1 and none since. Was that solely as a result of the ban? Who knows. But try presenting an evidence based argument and you are obviously going to lose. Hard one that. After the last one, there was no change to gun restrictions but a bit more medical input to the process. Did gun crime reduce post bans? No of course not as crimbo's over here do not apply for a licence for a sawn-off with the good reason - Bank Robbery. Equally incidents where shots are fired are rare and make the national news. Are we a heinously suppressed population being deprived of firearms? Well no. Attitudes are different, our culture is different. This is a small highly populated island largely. If the law changed tomorrow would lots of people run out and buy a gun? No, they are just not interested really. The only time most people hear about guns is on the TV when some nutter (usually in the US) shoots loads of people. So its hardly surprising their default view is negative. So while I don't have direct experience on your situation means I will not make comment, I would point out that relying on our experience to make an argument in the US is a road to nowhere and Libresco has been 'exercising' the data to draw a parallel.

Saw today there was another attempted murder with the use of a motor vehicle in Britain. I am sorry that is happening to peaceful people lining up to see a great museum.

Will Britain now ban the Prius?

Okay Britain does not have the access to guns that the US has. That fact has not stopped heinous crimes.

How many gun men are knife men now in Britain despite having strong restrictions on the personal carry of knives?

Compare the size of the populations apparently if Britain had a population the size of the US Im thinking there would be a greater number of knifings.

We don't have similar populations of car killers so we cant compare that statistic.

Review the gun crime stats in the US. Remove suicides and the crimes committed in a few liberal shitholes that do nothing about criminals you will find the Us is a pretty peaceful place even under the 2A.

People in glass houses...........
 
Last edited:
I was shocked that the Washington Post published that article along with it on msn the other day.

Finally some common sense. But there are too many radicals that make an actual educated decision on something.