The Weather Channel and NWS... are they using control?

[sirhrmechanic]

So all last winter and this summer... the weather channel (now owned by IBM, by the way) and the NWS local office are CONSTANTLY posting alerts, warnings, Red Alerts... rain warnings. And nothing happens.

We are having one of the driest summers on record. But every weekend they are predicting rain... right up until the night before then... oops, no rain. So you can't plan mowing. You can't plan going outside, etc.

Last night was a massive weather alert for our county. Shelter in pace. 60 MPH winds. Penny sized hail. Going to be armageddon for the next hour. I looked outside and said "no way." The sky was wrong. No thunderheads. Nothing. Went to their radar sight. And future radar showed 'maybe' some showers at midnight. The whole thing was BS. Nothing at all.

All winter... 1" "Blizzards" were going to make driving impossible. Stay home. Weather alert. Here is some news... less than a foot up here is called "Flurries." 3 feet in 48 hours gets our attention. The worst blizzard we had in my memory was 2007 Valentines storm, 40" in 30 hours. That was a bad storm. But 2" is NOT a reason to cancel school and put out a 'shelter in place order' in Northern Mountains of New England.

I know... when there is a 'disaster coming' and there is fear to be mongered... people tune into web sites more and watch the Weather Channel every minute. But really... this is all bull! It's just another way to make everyone afraid and keep them at home.

Anyone else, in other parts of the country, seeing the same trend?

Sirhr

 

[Shooter McGavin]

I have been done with the weather channel for a long time. I get Accuweather with direct tv. https://www.accuweather.com/

 

[Heretoimproveforhunting]

after the weather channel changed its model post-90s it got worthless fast. little focus on weather - or competent meterologists - more focus, as you said, on bullshit that gets eyeballs.

also, im not convinced they disnt collude with the insurance industry in some way when they started 'naming' every front that comes theough. yes the 'drama' factor to stir people up. but also, a lot of policies have higher deductibles for 'named' storms

 

[Partsunavailable]

You sir must not be a farmer. We've been lied to about the rain on the way for years. But you are also right. The computer models have been embellished and the color scale turned up so what used to look like nothing on a radar map, looks like an impending five alarm storm. In short, it's entertainment, people don't pay attention when the forecast is hot and dry, it's been hot and dry, will continue to be hot and dry for the foreseeable future. Fake weather.

 

[brianf]

im all over the place with this one..

weather forecasts are created by crunching numbers off a "grid"

the smaller the grid the more numbers to crunch/ more data point should equal a better forecast

the European model has been the most accurate over the past several years, in large part that then upgraded their systems (reduced grid size) more than the US has in the same time period.

Dark Sky, prob the best and most accurate weather app has been absorbed by apple. since the acquisition there is a apparent decrease in accuracy. many believe that apple has changed the mapping data models because of cost...moved away from European Model.

flip side (especially in NY) over the past 20 years or so it seems that the population has forgotten how to drive in in-climate weather.

we see larger and more frequent pile-ups not fender benders

my gut says its the government and insurance companies that weigh the averages...make it sound scary and the morons wont try to drive in it...because they cant.

i also think the proliferation of SUV/4WD/AWD has given people a false sense of security in poor conditions causing even further transportation issues.

20 years ago moms stayed home because their car was rear wheel drive.

now everything is 4WD drive, yet they dont understand just because you can start doesnt mean you can stop or turn

add to it as others have said...more "RED" means more danger and danger sells

 

[JMGlasgow]

If I want to know the weather, I go outside and look at the sky. My prediction may be wrong some days, but it's surely more accurate than any weather app, or tv weather forecast.

 

[Milo 2.5]

I can see your concern, aren't most of your weather patterns coming off the ocean?
Summer storms out here rarely show up on Doppler radar unless they are on top of us. Storms materialize and are over in 1.5-2 hours, whether rain, hail, high winds. We just get a blanket 35% chance of afternoon storms each morning. No one out here can plan a day around the threat of a storm.
In the spring, we usually know a day in advance moisture is coming, precipitation totals are rarely predicted correctly. Winter storms, again, we may know 3 days in advance if artic air is moving in with moisture. I guess now polar vortex sounds better.
Hasn't the original guy that came up with the weather channel said that today TWC is total bullshit?

 

[Kamerad]

Up here in Wetside WA, it’s generally partly cloudy with a chance of rain, not a lot of reason to bother with weather reports. With the obsession with ‘climate change’, I assume shenanigans are in play.

 

[supercorndogs]

I was delivering for a local Pizza place. One day I delivered to a house and the owner told me there was a Tornado warning. I looked the sky and laughed, nothing but broken white clouds with blue sky in-between them. He said, "thats not funny, its dangerous." Then he called the manager at home and complained I was delivering during a tornado warning.

It was ironic he was mad about me delivering the delivery he ordered during a bull shit Tornado warning. The county is big buddy, you have to use some common sense. The cell was like 50 miles north of us, not moving towards us.

 

[Milo 2.5]

I was delivering for a local Pizza place. One day I delivered to a house and the owner told me there was a Tornado warning. I looked the sky and laughed, nothing but broken white clouds with blue sky in-between them. He said, "thats not funny, its dangerous." Then he called the manager at home and complained I was delivering during a tornado warning.

It was ironic he was mad about me delivering the delivery he ordered during a bull shit Tornado warning. The county is big buddy, you have to use some common sense. The cell was like 50 miles north of us, not moving towards us.

Mind if I laugh. I mean WTF here. You should have taken the pizza from him and told him you were going back to a safe space and ripped his ass for endangering your life. Idiots

 

[vh20]

It’s not just the national channels. The local channel here has gone full-hype/ panic mode every time there’s even a hint of severe Wx. They used to be a really accurate and honest resource, within the limits of the technology available at the time. Now they try to hype every system into “killer” status and admonish viewers not to take their eyes off their non-stop emergency broadcast. It’s really becoming a “cry wolf” scenario because viewers are beginning to figure it’s just hype and a REAL system is going to get ignored.

 

[308pirate]

So all last winter and this summer... the weather channel (now owned by IBM, by the way) and the NWS local office are CONSTANTLY posting alerts, warnings, Red Alerts... rain warnings. And nothing happens.

We are having one of the driest summers on record. But every weekend they are predicting rain... right up until the night before then... oops, no rain. So you can't plan mowing. You can't plan going outside, etc.

Last night was a massive weather alert for our county. Shelter in pace. 60 MPH winds. Penny sized hail. Going to be armageddon for the next hour. I looked outside and said "no way." The sky was wrong. No thunderheads. Nothing. Went to their radar sight. And future radar showed 'maybe' some showers at midnight. The whole thing was BS. Nothing at all.

All winter... 1" "Blizzards" were going to make driving impossible. Stay home. Weather alert. Here is some news... less than a foot up here is called "Flurries." 3 feet in 48 hours gets our attention. The worst blizzard we had in my memory was 2007 Valentines storm, 40" in 30 hours. That was a bad storm. But 2" is NOT a reason to cancel school and put out a 'shelter in place order' in Northern Mountains of New England.

I know... when there is a 'disaster coming' and there is fear to be mongered... people tune into web sites more and watch the Weather Channel every minute. But really... this is all bull! It's just another way to make everyone afraid and keep them at home.

Anyone else, in other parts of the country, seeing the same trend?

Sirhr

I've seen that trend developing for a long time. I ditched cable a couple of years ago so I reduced the number of chicken little bullshit by about 85%.

Now the only chickenshit weather stuff comes from the local TV news (the few times a month I actually watch them). 99% of the time my weather information comes from Weather Underground and from direct observation (visuals, NWS radar sites, weather maps).

One of the side benefits of being a sailor for many years then later on getting a private pilot's license and instrument flight rating is that I learned how to use primary weather forecast products from the NWS and FAA, and so I need little help from the TV talking heads when deciding what will affect me and what won't.

If you really want to divorce yourself from all this bullshit, buy this book and learn to use the NWS' aviation weather products: https://www.sportys.com/pilotshop/aviation-weather-services.html

 

[pmclaine]

All news/weather changed about 1990 or so in order to compete with CNN.

Everything became "Breaking" or "Alert".

Bring me back to the day of boring ass nerdy weathermen and journalists that reported facts without the drama.

I think some of that now is politics.

Hyping shit to propagandize the People.

With the weather hype it ties in to the "Climate Change" agenda " Oh my God look at how bad storms are getting!"

 

[KYAggie]

All I can tell you is this, real weather forecasting went out the window with computers and it seems the models they are using are garbage in garbage out. For certain, if I was as bad at my job as they are, I would not be getting paid and would very likely be dead along with a lot of other people.

 

[Maggot]

I was delivering for a local Pizza place. One day I delivered to a house and the owner told me there was a Tornado warning. I looked the sky and laughed, nothing but broken white clouds with blue sky in-between them. He said, "thats not funny, its dangerous." Then he called the manager at home and complained I was delivering during a tornado warning.

It was ironic he was mad about me delivering the delivery he ordered during a bull shit Tornado warning. The county is big buddy, you have to use some common sense. The cell was like 50 miles north of us, not moving towards us.

Ive been getting a lot of telephone message alerts for Tornados. Havent seen one yet, fortunately. If I want to know the weather I look at the radar map and figure it out for myself.

 

[Xshot]

I gave up on the Weather Channel and Weather.com years ago. Neither were very accurate and too much other crap besides the weather reports.

I use Accuweather on my computer, but do not subscribe to their alerts. I find their forecasts and radar accurate.

Here in southern Wisconsin the local TV weather is absolutely unwatchable. Completely sensationalized and every storm is dangerous. HELL they close the schools anytime the local forecast calls for more than inch of snow.

 

[W54/XM-388]

It's all about getting eyeballs and money, even on the government level, more fear from the sheep means you need us more means more money for the budget.

Like everything else, there is very little real truth these days.

 

[Eli17L]

It's all computer algorithms these days with satellites making guesses and all the historic data being skewed to support global warming so a weather rock is now your best source for current weather in your AO.
Its all fake news now and 10 years from now the fake weather will be the historical record.
IMHO

 

[Powder_Burns]

 

[FXDWG]

Being wrong 90% of the time and still be able to keep your job must be nice. Guess the weatherman has to keep up with the doctors. I usually look at 3 different sources for weather before I pull the bike out of the garage but still plan on getting rained on. Kind of like looking both ways before entering a roundabout.

 

[308pirate]

Bring me back to the day of boring ass nerdy weathermen and journalists that reported facts without the drama.

I grew up watching Dr. Dean McDowell do the weather on Telemundo, channel 2.....LOL

 

[BytorJr]

Or the converse. We had a whopper of a cell with a prominent comma shaped hook yesterday. In the 5+ years I've been here no wind I've seen could touch it. It was swirling too and there was a distinct sound to it, not typical freight train but maybe Formula E whir. How I lost no roof or trees I'm shocked. 4 houses down trees down, one 'hood up, fences gone. Warning...none until it got into the next county.

 

[clcustom1911]

So all last winter and this summer... the weather channel (now owned by IBM, by the way) and the NWS local office are CONSTANTLY posting alerts, warnings, Red Alerts... rain warnings. And nothing happens.

We are having one of the driest summers on record. But every weekend they are predicting rain... right up until the night before then... oops, no rain. So you can't plan mowing. You can't plan going outside, etc.

Last night was a massive weather alert for our county. Shelter in pace. 60 MPH winds. Penny sized hail. Going to be armageddon for the next hour. I looked outside and said "no way." The sky was wrong. No thunderheads. Nothing. Went to their radar sight. And future radar showed 'maybe' some showers at midnight. The whole thing was BS. Nothing at all.

All winter... 1" "Blizzards" were going to make driving impossible. Stay home. Weather alert. Here is some news... less than a foot up here is called "Flurries." 3 feet in 48 hours gets our attention. The worst blizzard we had in my memory was 2007 Valentines storm, 40" in 30 hours. That was a bad storm. But 2" is NOT a reason to cancel school and put out a 'shelter in place order' in Northern Mountains of New England.

I know... when there is a 'disaster coming' and there is fear to be mongered... people tune into web sites more and watch the Weather Channel every minute. But really... this is all bull! It's just another way to make everyone afraid and keep them at home.

Anyone else, in other parts of the country, seeing the same trend?

Sirhr

No bad weather (summer storms, etc) ever forecasted during these major protests.

But yeah, I've noticed that overall trend as well. Terms like "arctic bomb cyclone", "polar vortex", being used suddenly. I don't think its all bullshit, weather is weather, but the reporting is being shaped to form a narrative.
When the lockdowns were first being lifted here in San Antonio area, the forecasted weather was all rain, thunder, lightning several days into the future... especially on fri/sat/sun regularly. But the daily weather would be clear, sunny, etc. My buddy brought it up to me about maybe the weather forecast being used to maybe stop people from doing outdoor or the water-related activities around here to keep people from socializing. Makes sense.

Speaking of awesome reporting.....

 

[Foul Mike]

I used to have to drive snowplows once in a while in NE Colorado. I would be listening to the radio out of Denver and hear them say how bad and dire it was out here yet there I was, plowing the shit off and wondering where they came up with all of this bullshit. More Drama.
Seldom were they even close to what the actual conditions were. More Drama.

My youngest Son, a commercial airplane driver, turned me on to Skyvector, that they use to plot flights.
You have to get it tuned in to the area you want and put the crosshairs on the nearest airport and set the tabs in the upper right hand corner as to what kind of radar you want.
It is all airplane maps and you can zoom in on them and be amazed at how accurate they are as seen from above.
You have to poke a button on the time bar at the bottom of the screen to get it rolling.
It is weather radar current up to about 3 minutes ago or less and those maps are really neat if you zoom in on them. Give it a go.

My Son didn't like me calling him an Airplane Driver until I asked him what he could not fly?
"None, Pa, I can fly them all." He has thousands of hours and more certs. than I know of.
My next question was,"Do you actually fly all of those airplanes or are there a few that are difficult and you kind of herd them around the sky?"
He then told me that more than probably he was indeed an Airplane Driver but prefers to be called a Pilot.

I will go with Pilot for now but he did admit that with some aircraft, "You are the driver."
Sure is fun to fly with him. He lets me hold the handles as long as I am not fucking up. FM

 

[Sgt47]

 

[jphil108]

I grew up on the coast of NC and went though a ton of hurricanes tropical storms and not-easters. We were always prepared with chainsaws, tarps, gas stoves, clean water, and later in with a generator. We got some bad damage and always had it cleaned up pretty quick. Last week we were on vacation with my inland in-laws,beachfront on the S.C. coast when Isaias popped up, MIL and wife were glued to the weather channel and apps and couldn’t sleep they were so nervous. Power stayed on, roof hardly even groaned, I slept like a rock, continental shelf and shape of the coast usually mean S.C. doesn’t get the worst of it. People just 70 miles northeast got hammered and wrecked a marina and neighborhoods. No use in worrying about the damn thing, it’s going where it wants to and you can’t change it, just be prepared and ready to react. If it misses you save your spam white bread and bottle water for later.

when I worked on outdoor power products our VP used to get giddy about hurricanes because it meant Home Depot would sell a shit ton of our cheap generators and chainsaws. Always pissed me off as a coastal boy but you couldn’t argue with the math, HD and Lowe’s do a ton of advertising on the storms and I think it’s advantageous to everybody but the consumer if the weather is always billed as horrible. Not to mention all the shows that weather channel has now, they have to pay for that somehow. The NWS used to broadcast a pretty good radio channel that was just a monotone robot voice reading the local status. SCDNR has a good severe weather resource that is rarely wrong for big stuff, might check and see what local or state level services are available. At the end of the day, your eyes, ears, and past experience are the best predictors.

 

[Mike Casselton]

If I want to know the weather, I go outside and look at the sky. My prediction may be wrong some days, but it's surely more accurate than any weather app, or tv weather forecast.

^^^^^^^
This right here times 10,000.
All the predictions and forecasts have just caused me to stay home too many times when we ended up with blue skies.

Nowadays, I just poke my head outside and look up.
It's more accurate than Accuweather.

 

[Threadcutter308]

Born and raised Western Washtonian. It rains here. It rains here a lot. Us locals know that. We prepare to get rained on. We even kind of like it sometimes. If it doesn't rain, we might even take our raincoats off.

The weather reporting here over the years has been so consistently and dreadfully wrong that we never even listen to them anymore. However, I do miss the old days when Ray Ramsey was the weathercaster on KOMO 4. It was always fun to tune in to see just how drunk he was on any given night. Still didn't put any credence in what he was forecasting.......

 

[MtnCreek]

Rained every day. Going to rain every day. Will stop in Sept. Not going to rain in Oct. Will be hot til Nov.

 

[Rthur]

I'd submit they should be paid by accuracy.
My local version always sends out the cell phone alert 10 minutes after it has passed.

R

 

[Snuby642]

Why do you go to second party sources ? Duh.

Fort Worth/Dallas, TX

 

[Snuby642]

Rained every day. Going to rain every day. Will stop in Sept. Not going to rain in Oct. Will be hot til Nov.

View attachment 7396833

Will trade my 100 degree days strait up for a 50% chance of rain.

Other trades considered.

 

[Dunraven]

I only tune in for the local forecast feature, and to see how stephanie looks that day. What can I say? I'm a pig. I do like her personality.

 

[MtnCreek]

Will trade my 100 degree days strait up for a 50% chance of rain.

Other trades considered.

You'll have to do better than that. Our 50% rain chances are worth a solid 80% this yr. Today is 40% and it's rained twice already, probably got one more left in it. That's a 125% chance of rain from my view. Now if I can offload some freezing rain, we might can make a deal.

 

[FS1]

Reports of, we are all gonna die sell better. Got to keep that revenue flowing.

 

[Snuby642]

Freezing rain does suck.
Was in a fishing tournament once and it started up.

Line freezing to rod guides, deck, boat ramp and roads all the way home.
X- 4 times the drive home.

Placing in the money was not worth it but had bragging rights over a couple hundred that didn't.

I'm too old for that shit these days.

No trade on the ice, got a foot of snow left over?

 

[Snipe260]

So all last winter and this summer... the weather channel (now owned by IBM, by the way) and the NWS local office are CONSTANTLY posting alerts, warnings, Red Alerts... rain warnings. And nothing happens.

We are having one of the driest summers on record. But every weekend they are predicting rain... right up until the night before then... oops, no rain. So you can't plan mowing. You can't plan going outside, etc.

Last night was a massive weather alert for our county. Shelter in pace. 60 MPH winds. Penny sized hail. Going to be armageddon for the next hour. I looked outside and said "no way." The sky was wrong. No thunderheads. Nothing. Went to their radar sight. And future radar showed 'maybe' some showers at midnight. The whole thing was BS. Nothing at all.

All winter... 1" "Blizzards" were going to make driving impossible. Stay home. Weather alert. Here is some news... less than a foot up here is called "Flurries." 3 feet in 48 hours gets our attention. The worst blizzard we had in my memory was 2007 Valentines storm, 40" in 30 hours. That was a bad storm. But 2" is NOT a reason to cancel school and put out a 'shelter in place order' in Northern Mountains of New England.

I know... when there is a 'disaster coming' and there is fear to be mongered... people tune into web sites more and watch the Weather Channel every minute. But really... this is all bull! It's just another way to make everyone afraid and keep them at home.

Anyone else, in other parts of the country, seeing the same trend?

Sirhr

They don’t know anymore on prediction than you and me! They guess at everything and miss it more than not!

 

[Duc]

I like how it used to be;

 

[308pirate]

Freezing rain does suck.
Was in a fishing tournament once and it started up.

Line freezing to rod guides, deck, boat ramp and roads all the way home.
X- 4 times the drive home.

I was here that day, coming back home after visiting a supplier.................let me tell you it took every ounce of skill and stability control in the rental 300C to not wreck. It gets worse from there. Past the overhead signs, the Rouge River bridge begins to climb and curve right with a slight camber.

 

[M7rtim]

I was starting to think it was just me the meteorologists lie to

 

[MCHOG]

The reduced accuracy of forecasts was predicted. It is caused by reduced airline flights. It turns out that commercial planes transmit data that weather services use to make the forecasts. Less data = less accurate forecasts. So blame it on COVID.

 

[jungle45]

Born and raised Western Washtonian. It rains here. It rains here a lot. Us locals know that. We prepare to get rained on. We even kind of like it sometimes. If it doesn't rain, we might even take our raincoats off.

The weather reporting here over the years has been so consistently and dreadfully wrong that we never even listen to them anymore. However, I do miss the old days when Ray Ramsey was the weathercaster on KOMO 4. It was always fun to tune in to see just how drunk he was on any given night. Still didn't put any credence in what he was forecasting.......

If you can see Rainier there's a 50% chance that it will be nice out. Can't see it then be prepared well just be prepared any way.

 

[hlee]

Watches the natural disaster porn channel.
Pissed they show natural disaster porn...

 

[hertz654]

in general, I refer to it as the "sissification" of America; everything is a disaster or causes some mild discomfort, so stay home, you big sissy. Back in March, I decided I was tired of paying for 70+ channels of cable tv and then watching 20-year old re-runs -- so I dropped my cable tv subscription. I also dropped my land-line and switched to a smartypants phone [saves me about $110/month; which in the words of AJ equals "buy more ammo"]. I used to watch The Weather Channel religiously every morning to decide what to wear for my bike commute to work. Now I just look at the mercury thermometer on my screen door and plan to get rained on from time-to-time in the afternoon. Man, since I disconnected from the mainstream media I am so happy. Evidently, some level of ignorance is bliss!

 

[army_eod]

The weather is just more fake news looking for ratings. I don't trust it. I look at a reliable radar source and go outside.

 

[bunsen27]

For those along the East Coast through the Midwest you might want to follow David Tolleris out of Richmond Virginia. He is pretty good at forecasting and explaining why the weather patterns are occurring. He routinely compares the different models and shows why the GFS model is utter crap, which coincidentally it what almost all weather apps and stations utilize.

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