Ukraine war Bullshit.

[Terry Cross]

I would not paint them as suckers either, but the Europeans are still not totally lost, but I hear you on the manufacturing points and don't disagree.

On the aircraft, Last I checked Russia had around 2 Squadrons of Felons or around 24 active, but that has been a while since I have looked, didn't know they had those kinda numbers yet.

I will try to find a link to the info claiming 4 dozen active. Just read that the other night.

While that was mainly US in Iraq, EU have the tools to do it, and they have recently gotten a kick in the pants to think about it.

I personally do not believe the SU-34 would fair well, even with the Felon, Flankers and Foxhounds out there flying CAP. There is enough stand off range in modern western missiles they would have a lot of trouble using the FABs like they are near the front lines and that is something the Fat Amy has been designed to do. We just witnessed it over Iran when Israel did their thing. I am not aware of them taking a single loss to enemy fire. While I know Iran is not Russia, just saying.

IMO the issue Russia runs into is they are still trying to catch up from the Soviet collapse, they fell way behind. They do not sell jets like they did 50 years ago, they can't afford the research and development, mean while we have, with European and Asian partners built over 1200 F-35's. No way the Felon has the amount of R&D fat amy has in. Kinetically the Felon is incredible, but that maneuverability doesn't equal air dominance. There is some much more, way beyond what I fully grasp that goes into it.

I'm tracking with what you are saying.
So many so called "sources" of information and most of that is click bait BS. Tough to vet or give weight to any one source I read.

I'm concerned with the whole F-35 program.
It became a giant defense budget feed trough that was divided among a lot of Senator's states so they could sell the program.

It is 100% built to fight BVR and via integrated networks.
If Russia or China denies us the entire EM spectrum along with our satellite comms and ISR, they will effectively neuter our trillion $ air superiority with a few billion $ worth of EW.

It is a pig in the air and is a "fighter" only in the sense of it's physical size. It has really short legs and relies on a shit ton of support. It has a huge IR signature for it's size which is a problem when every Russian and Chinese plane has integrated IRST. It also has an RCS way bigger than the 1980's tech Raptor which is also a problem since a couple of independent papers claim China has LF radar as well as new passive radar tech that can track stealthy objects.

We might need all 1,200 of those F-35s because if a near peer threat manages to unplug them from the matrix, they will never survive the first merge.

Every congress person that voted to kill the F22 production at 180'ish units needs to be kicked in the nuts.

It's fun to debate such things and Red Team all the possibilities.

 

[Eostech]

The issue with Russian tank number is that a lot of the figures being thrown out are cope, a lot of articles will say 7000 in storage from the USSR but I've also seen NATO sources that state 12,500 without including T-62's from whatever reason (you know the ones in the vid that was just posted).

It also looks like the Russians are losing three to four times less tanks for 2025 so far compared to the previous years of the war (when was the last time you seen more than a single tank and a few IFVs in an assault?, they are not using large concentrations of armour plus the development of bike/buggy movement.)

We also have pretty rough but consistent data that puts a complete loss at about 1 in every 4 tanks damaged or traditionally claimed as "destroyed". Ie, for every vid you see of a Russian tank being destroyed, there is a 75% chance that even if the FPV drone did damage (not guaranteed) that tank will be repairable and sent back.

Not sure on numbers but 2025 might be the first year we see Russia end with more tanks (and more modern tanks) than they started with.

Unlike Iraq, it's not a flat ass desert with no cover a few roads down which to drive, as I said before, Russia is not concentrating armour so it's hard to imagine any sort of Gulf war one style air campaign success, drones already prevent both Russia and Ukraine from concentrating forces, especially in the open.

 

[GreenGO Juan]

I will try to find a link to the info claiming 4 dozen active. Just read that the other night.


I'm tracking with what you are saying.
So many so called "sources" of information and most of that is click bait BS. Tough to vet or give weight to any one source I read.

I'm concerned with the whole F-35 program.
It became a giant defense budget feed trough that was divided among a lot of Senator's states so they could sell the program.

It is 100% is built to fight BVR and via integrated networks.
If Russia or China denies us the entire EM spectrum along with our satellite comms and ISR, they will effectively neuter our trillion $ air superiority with a few billion $ worth of EW.

It is a pig in the air and is a "fighter" only in the sense of it's physical size. It has really short legs and relies on a shit ton of support. It has a huge IR signature for it's size which is a problem when every Russian and Chinese plane has integrated IRST. It also has an RCS way bigger than the 1980's tech Raptor which is also a problem since a couple of independent papers claim China has LF radar as well as new passive radar tech that can track stealthy objects.

We might need all 1,200 of those F-35s because if a near peer threat manages to unplug them from the matrix, they will never survive the first merge.

Every congress person that voted to kill the F22 production at 180'ish units needs to be kicked in the nuts.

It's fun to debate such things and Red Team all the possibilities.

I know people that fly and have flown against them, Fat Amies. They can't tell me anything too detailed, but they assure me that thing is very capable. I trust their word over any thing I see in the media. From what I have heard, anything 4th gen is fish in a barrel.

Incorrct on performance. Its got legs, over 18,000 lbs of internal fuel. She is not a pig, 9g and high AoA capable most powerful engine ever put in a fighter jet. It makes nearly as much thrust in Mil as a F-16 makes in full after burner.




Sans the Raptor, they all have large IR sig. I disagree that it, compared to its rivals has a huge IR sig. Its actually one of the reason the engine is positioned as it is, its hard to get a direct view of the exhaust nozzles, as the horizontal and vertical tail and the "booms" are in the way.

We didn't need that many F-22's at the time, which is why they were canceled. Even the few we have have yet to score any kills other than hitting that Ballon. Fucking crazy maintence intensive. My Brothers ex wife used to do the Stealth coating maintenance on them at Tyndall, one hell of a nasty process. Pretty sure it was Dick Cheany that is heavily responsible for the Raptors production cuts.

 

[Terry Cross]

I know people that fly and have flown against them, Fat Amies. They can't tell me anything too detailed, but they assure me that thing is very capable. I trust their word over any thing I see in the media. From what I have heard, anything 4th gen is fish in a barrel.

I am convinced they are very capable but only within the BVR envelope they are built to survive in.

Incorrct on performance. Its got legs, over 18,000 lbs of internal fuel.

Good for a little over 700 miles vs over 900 for a Flanker or J11

She is not a pig, 9g and high AoA capable most powerful engine ever put in a fighter jet. It makes nearly as much thrust in Mil as a F-16 makes in full after burner.

Not valid numbers. The F35 weighs just under 30,000 pounds empty while the F-16 weighs just over 20,000 pounds empty. The 35 needs the extra output to keep even close to survivable. Everything else out there says the 35 can't sustain Gs even close to G4 or G4++ birds. It can run fairly high AoA but just like when pulling Gs in other maneuvers, it looses energy so fast it can't sustain it. It is also very slow to rebuild energy.

When forced outside it's happy place, it is really vulnerable. Just a few months ago a Typhoon got a simulated kill on a 35 during Red Flag when the 35 was denied a BVR engagement.

Sans the Raptor, they all have large IR sig.

That is true. My context was that it has a large IR signature for a newly developed Gen 5 that they knew would have to face foes with well developed thermal search, track and target capability. They knew it but they built it anyway.

We didn't need that many F-22's at the time, which is why they were canceled. Even the few we have have yet to score any kills other than hitting that Ballon. Fucking crazy maintence intensive. My Brothers ex wife used to do the Stealth coating maintenance on them at Tyndall, one hell of a nasty process. Pretty sure it was Dick Cheany that is heavily responsible for the Raptors production cuts.

That's what I heard as well! Then again when it takes a decade or two to ramp up a program, you would hope they could plan ahead for future threats a little better.

All fun with the debate. I'm probably just butthurt that they are slowly killing off the F22s and B1s. Sexy, sexy, sexy!!!

My guys have a different opinion that your guys!
and Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries!

 

[BobKaare]

They have put a lot of effort into modernization no doubt. I don’t think the EU as a whole will jump. They are more than happy to hold the proverbial carrot on a stick out in front of Ukraine but not fully get involved. Let them suffer the majority of the consequences. But if they did, I believe Russia armor would end up looking about like Saddam’s forces after desert storm. EU united has a hell of an Airforce

Back to the tanks, Russian industrial output can not keep up with current losses. I believe they can build a little less than 100 new main battle tanks per year, around 350 infantry fighting vehicles or thats about what I remember reading on the ISW site.

Satellite imagery of their tank storage facilities seems to indicate they are losing them at an unstainable rate. They are at a net loss unless some other country with a massive manufacturing capability starts handing out armor. Which I pray doesn’t happen.

This paper was written on precisely that, analysis by a pro-Ukraine Russian dissident.

How Many Т-90M Tanks does Russia Produce? CIT Research

Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, launched in February 2022 as a blitzkrieg-style operation, had by the year’s end devolved into...

notes.citeam.org

 

[Edsel]

That's a bold, unsubstantiated and predictably ignorant claim you've made, care to back it up? Ukraine, to people who can locate it on a map, has been known for their engineering and manufacturing. Here's one company that's making ebikes marketed for military use. My previous post was the recently unveiled flamingo missile that's yeeting zigger spooks and oil refineries. It's apparent you have no idea what you're talking about there's no need to keep driving the point buddy

View attachment 8758992

Isn’t this one of those electric kit bikes from China?

 

[sharac]

Well i think its a high time for West to mobilize its workforce, opens up new manufacturing facilities, reinstates mandatory military service, “swaps all savings into military bonds, cancels all vacations and implements tax on luxury items (defined by anything not essential for war effort). Forward Soviet!!

/sarcasm off