Inflation.......... ?

#1,903
NoDopes said:
www.cnbc.com

Supplier prices rose 11.2% from a year ago in March, the biggest gain on record

The PPI, which measures the prices paid by wholesalers, increased 11.2% from a year ago, the most in a series going back to November 2010.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
Click to expand...
The speed of the inflation is Staggering.... Beyond the comprehension of average Americans... Deja Vu of stories from other countries where the price for a loaf of bread was going up hourly... The FED Reserve and Administration are avoiding even talking about hyperinflation.

____________________________________________

The prices that goods and services producers receive rose in March at the fastest pace since records have been kept, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.

The producer price index, which measures the prices paid by wholesalers, increased 11.2% from a year ago, the most in a data series going back to November 2010. On a monthly basis, the gauge increased 1.4%, above the 1.1% Dow Jones estimate.

www.cnbc.com

Supplier prices rose 11.2% from a year ago in March, the biggest gain on record

The PPI, which measures the prices paid by wholesalers, increased 11.2% from a year ago, the most in a series going back to November 2010.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
#1,906
@Hobo Hilton started this tread 54 weeks ago. The prediction was spot-on.

With PPI at 11.2 this morning, plus ongoing supply chain issues, demand is increasing while supplies are shrinking on almost everything. The fed is shrinking the monetary supply, increasing prime interest rates, and devaluing the dollar.

My point being....this is only going to get worse. Get ready!
 
#1,907
TriggerJerk! said:
@Hobo Hilton started this tread 54 weeks ago. The prediction was spot-on.

With PPI at 11.2 this morning, plus ongoing supply chain issues, demand is increasing while supplies are shrinking on almost everything. The fed is shrinking the monetary supply, increasing prime interest rates, and devaluing the dollar.

My point being....this is only going to get worse. Get ready!
Click to expand...
Thank you for the credit... :(... For the sake of my children and Grand children, I had hoped to be wrong.
This will be the 3rd or 4th recession of my lifetime. Propaganda (inflation, shortages, monetary, etc) has been worse going into this one. Partially because it is worldwide.
Historically recessions bring out the "Flim Flam men", Snake Oil Salesmen and a dramatic increase of people buying Lotto tickets. When people become desperate they grasp at straw's.
Credit cards and Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) will be the other bear traps. If I could wave my Magic Wand I would destroy every credit card in America. Soon the financial headlines will tell stories of people buying their weekly groceries with a credit card because some politician said "Things are getting better"...
Recently here on the board and in the financials the talk has been that this recession will take hold in 2023. I tend to agree because both Big Business and the FED Reserve are making moves to avoid an immediate crash. Call it "Tapping the Brake Pedal"..
The one thing desperately needed is to stop the $$$ printing presses. Every week this Administration is throwing Billions of $$$ at COVID, Ukraine, Global Warming, Solar Power, etc. Free money is what got us into this mess.

Pay off your credit cards
Have a 6 month supply of food and water
Plant some sort of garden, even in 5 gallon buckets. Build your knowledge of growing something.
Get to know your neighbors. Good, bad or indifferent to know where they stand when things get worse.
Everyone here has enough weapons and ammo.. You could starve to death 3 or 4 times over before the shooting starts.

Pray
 
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#1,909
I don't think this is going to be similar to anything I have been through, including the 70s. We could produce ourselves out of trouble back then. We don't make nearly enough things now. We don't have a lockdown on multiple technologies. We aren't the captains of industry we used to be and our clout isn't nearly what it was. We may have some of the best industrial processes, innovation, and minds in the world, but we don't have the lead we once had and the middle class has been carved up and pushed into a corner. Texas Instruments, IBM, Motorola and Lucent aren't going to save the day.

I am glad for a couple of things: 1 - It was slow enough for some of us to play catchup and prepare a bit. 2 - It is going fast enough and looks to be serious enough that we may have to change our way of doing business in a larger sense. Hopefully no more kicking the can down the road. I do hope this turmoil subsides in a year or two.
 
#1,911
Yeah, it’s going to be a grade A dumpster fire.

Now I’m just sitting back and watching. I am comfortable.

Once I start seeing barely used luxury items hit the market en mass, then we’ll know it’s in full swing. My most accurate gauge has always been luxury items. I knew shit was odd when you couldn’t get a $10,000 watch, $19,000 ATV, or $80,000 camper when the majority of the country wasn’t working. Luxury market still hasn’t slowed much.

Would like to get some great deals on labor as well to build some structures.
 
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#1,912
Bigfatcock said:
Yeah, it’s going to be a grade A dumpster fire.

Now I’m just sitting back and watching. I am comfortable.

Once I start seeing barely used luxury items hit the market en mass, then we’ll know it’s in full swing. My most accurate gauge has always been luxury items. I knew shit was odd when you couldn’t get a $10,000 watch, $19,000 ATV, or $80,000 camper when the majority of the country wasn’t working. Luxury market still hasn’t slowed much.

Would like to get some great deals on labor as well to build some structures.
Click to expand...
The winning strategy is to buy the necessities that no one wants while they are cheap(er). Each portion of this wave has advantages to grab for almost every outlook/opinion on all this.
 
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#1,913
I'm not a big fan of Janet Yellen. However, I do listen to some of those cryptic sentences she injects into her reports.

Yellen says she worries more about recession in Europe than U.S. ​

Hmmmm... I have been thinking the same thing and asking the same questions about the Asian markets. Why ? Europe and Asia are the Grandparents while America is the infant. Wars, famines, plagues and politicial upheavels are just another day at the office for Europe and Asia. Europe and Asia should lead us out of this train wreck. If they fail, this Administration will throw money at the problem's of "other's".
An old Southern saying, should this happen, it will leave American's "sucking hind tit".....
No one is coming to save America. We will be the wood plank laid across the mud puddle as the world walks across us.
 
#1,914
Notice we just received from Firestone regarding price increases. The funny thing is you can't even find TPO if you were willing to pay the price. This is not sustainable and we are already seeing planned projects being postponed.
 

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#1,915
ZiaHunter said:
Notice we just received from Firestone regarding price increases. The funny thing is you can't even find TPO if you were willing to pay the price. This is not sustainable and we are already seeing planned projects being postponed.
Click to expand...
I agree... :confused:
I have friends bidding work into the middle of 2023..... Those construction Lawyers must be making a killing writing those kind of contracts. I think we are past the days of a "force majeure" clause.... I don't even know the legal term that would get a client and contractor out of deals in 2023. Can you even imagine a "Time and Material" job cost ?
 
#1,916
Hobo Hilton said:
I agree... :confused:
I have friends bidding work into the middle of 2023..... Those construction Lawyers must be making a killing writing those kind of contracts. I think we are past the days of a "force majeure" clause.... I don't even know the legal term that would get a client and contractor out of deals in 2023. Can you even imagine a "Time and Material" job cost ?
Click to expand...
I have friends trying to poach contractors with cash bonuses to get shit built right now.
 
#1,919

Historical Inflation Rate by YearInteractive chart showing the annual rate of inflation in the United States as measured by the Consumer Price Index back to 1914. The current rate of U.S. CPI inflation as of April 2022 is 287.50.​


Set the chart at 20 years to have the best indicators
www.macrotrends.net

Historical Inflation Rate by Year

Interactive chart showing the annual rate of inflation in the United States as measured by the Consumer Price Index back to 1914.
www.macrotrends.net www.macrotrends.net
 
#1,920
Hobo Hilton said:

Historical Inflation Rate by YearInteractive chart showing the annual rate of inflation in the United States as measured by the Consumer Price Index back to 1914. The current rate of U.S. CPI inflation as of April 2022 is 287.50.​


Set the chart at 20 years to have the best indicators
www.macrotrends.net

Historical Inflation Rate by Year

Interactive chart showing the annual rate of inflation in the United States as measured by the Consumer Price Index back to 1914.
www.macrotrends.net www.macrotrends.net
Click to expand...
This is the chart I was looking for a few weeks ago. Now, add it all together so that you get cumulative inflation each year relative to 1914 and see what you get. Mark the year we left the gold standard and see what has happened.

THEN - lay that over the median income tax rate for each year. Add those two together and thats what you are up against if you want to save money and maintain its value.
 
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#1,921
lariat said:
This is the chart I was looking for a few weeks ago. Now, add it all together so that you get cumulative inflation each year relative to 1914 and see what you get. Mark the year we left the gold standard and see what has happened.

THEN - lay that over the median income tax rate for each year. Add those two together and thats what you are up against if you want to save money and maintain its value.
Click to expand...
I like the buying power of a dollar, to really graph inflation.

link
www.in2013dollars.com

$1 in 1860 → 2024 | Inflation Calculator

The 2.24% inflation rate means $1 in 1860 is equivalent to $37.78 today. This inflation calculator uses the official US consumer price index published by the Department of Labor.
www.in2013dollars.com www.in2013dollars.com

problem is, the Gov keeps messing with the CPI, so it's not 100% accurate.
 
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#1,925
I'm not pluggin' any other websites, but this is a good article for the younger folks who have not lived through a recession. Really good tips that work.
Call it "Recession for Dummies"..

survivalblog.com

Cost-Cutting: Got $5,200? Cut Costs Now!, by K.B.

Got $5,200? Cut Costs Now!, by K.B.. This article will cover tips on how to save in both big and little ways. Housing is one of the largest expenses.
survivalblog.com survivalblog.com
 
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#1,926
F4B32A47-B374-46A1-8B27-CB8EF0C5C1E0.png
 
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#1,935
I love the positive turn this thread has taken.

It costs so much more to fuel and maintain my vehicle that I'm putting on fewer miles, so it will last longer.

Increased ammo and component costs means less shooting. Barrels will last longer and it's less time spent cleaning.

Materials cost too much to take on projects around the house; that's more time for biking and hiking.

Increased home heating and cooling costs mean running HVAC less, so that will last longer.

Costs increasing faster than wages means more justification for slacking off, just as we enter the summer. Cutting out early on a nice day is about as good as it gets for wage slaves.

Fewer items on the shelves means less time spent shopping. Much less "tyranny of choice".

Increased scrap metal costs gives me more incentive to clean up around the shop.

Looks like I'll sell my pickup for about the same that I paid 11 years and 90,000 miles ago.

Yep, life is pretty good.
 
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#1,936
E. Bryant said:
I love the positive turn this thread has taken.

It costs so much more to fuel and maintain my vehicle that I'm putting on fewer miles, so it will last longer.

Increased ammo and component costs means less shooting. Barrels will last longer and it's less time spent cleaning.

Materials cost too much to take on projects around the house; that's more time for biking and hiking.

Increased home heating and cooling costs mean running HVAC less, so that will last longer.

Costs increasing faster than wages means more justification for slacking off, just as we enter the summer. Cutting out early on a nice day is about as good as it gets for wage slaves.

Fewer items on the shelves means less time spent shopping. Much less "tyranny of choice".

Increased scrap metal costs gives me more incentive to clean up around the shop.

Looks like I'll sell my pickup for about the same that I paid 11 years and 90,000 miles ago.

Yep, life is pretty good.
Click to expand...
On the subject of wage slaves…I was talking with a lady friend the other day, and she had an interesting take on Generation Z and the great resignation.

She stated that Generation Z isn’t lazy, they just refuse to do the same jobs for $13.50 an hour that 2-3 generations ago paid for a family, car, house, and college all with a high school diploma.

I really couldn’t fault it. I’ve been thinking on it ever since, and it explains why Joe and the ho need to import a bunch of immigrants to keep wages suppressed.
 
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#1,937
E. Bryant said:
I love the positive turn this thread has taken.

It costs so much more to fuel and maintain my vehicle that I'm putting on fewer miles, so it will last longer.

Increased ammo and component costs means less shooting. Barrels will last longer and it's less time spent cleaning.

Materials cost too much to take on projects around the house; that's more time for biking and hiking.

Increased home heating and cooling costs mean running HVAC less, so that will last longer.

Costs increasing faster than wages means more justification for slacking off, just as we enter the summer. Cutting out early on a nice day is about as good as it gets for wage slaves.

Fewer items on the shelves means less time spent shopping. Much less "tyranny of choice".

Increased scrap metal costs gives me more incentive to clean up around the shop.

Looks like I'll sell my pickup for about the same that I paid 11 years and 90,000 miles ago.

Yep, life is pretty good.
Click to expand...
Biking will be great exercise.
old-pedicab-on-wet-road-picture-id674496371
 
#1,938
Bigfatcock said:
On the subject of wage slaves…I was talking with a lady friend the other day, and she had an interesting take on Generation Z and the great resignation.

She stated that Generation Z isn’t lazy, they just refuse to do the same jobs for $13.50 an hour that 2-3 generations ago paid for a family, car, house, and college all with a high school diploma.

I really couldn’t fault it. I’ve been thinking on it ever since, and it explains why Joe and the ho need to import a bunch of immigrants to keep wages suppressed.
Click to expand...

Right - it's a perfectly logical response to the current conditions (unlike us miserable Gen Xers, who are still laboring under the misguided conception that hard work pays off... well, it does, just not for the wage slave). I wish it wasn't so, but that's the reality of the present situation. It also applies to those with higher education. Heck, go ask your local young dentist or doctor if they're rolling in piles of cash.

I get job offers daily from a number of local recruiters, LinkedIn, etc. The wages for an engineer doing difficult work (such as embedded software development or functional safety systems engineering) for a multi-national corporation are actually quite pathetic, especially considering the 50-60 hour work week that's an unspoken expectation in the auto industry. And fundamentally, adding another $25-50k in base comp doesn't fix much; it'll buy a bit more house that you'll never get to enjoy because you're stuck at the office doing your own job + two other roles that aren't getting filled because the company is trying to save money.

The Boomers might have invented "turn on, tune in, drop out", but Gen Z will actually live it right up until the breaking point. Then they'll go unfuck society just like their great-grandparents had to do.
 
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#1,940
E. Bryant said:
Right - it's a perfectly logical response to the current conditions (unlike us miserable Gen Xers, who are still laboring under the misguided conception that hard work pays off... well, it does, just not for the wage slave). I wish it wasn't so, but that's the reality of the present situation. It also applies to those with higher education. Heck, go ask your local young dentist or doctor if they're rolling in piles of cash.

I get job offers daily from a number of local recruiters, LinkedIn, etc. The wages for an engineer doing difficult work (such as embedded software development or functional safety systems engineering) for a multi-national corporation are actually quite pathetic, especially considering the 50-60 hour work week that's an unspoken expectation in the auto industry. And fundamentally, adding another $25-50k in base comp doesn't fix much; it'll buy a bit more house that you'll never get to enjoy because you're stuck at the office doing your own job + two other roles that aren't getting filled because the company is trying to save money.

The Boomers might have invented "turn on, tune in, drop out", but Gen Z will actually live it right up until the breaking point. Then they'll go unfuck society just like their great-grandparents had to do.
Click to expand...
I was perusing jobs for a local town, and to be a secretary they want a degree. Pretty dumb to be honest.

It’s interesting watching this all play out. Inflation, a whole generation saying pay me more or get fucked, and shortages.

I have my popcorn ready.
 
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#1,941
ca.finance.yahoo.com

Rising Fertilizer Costs are Catching up to Rice Farmers, Threatening Supplies

(Bloomberg) -- Soaring fertilizer costs have rice farmers across Asia scaling back their use, a move that threatens harvests of a staple that feeds half of humanity and could lead to a full-blown food crisis if prices aren’t curbed.Most Read from BloombergIn Defense of Elon Musk's Managerial...
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#1,942
jetracer013 said:
Can someone please explain why i should pay off debts now, especially CC's? Genuinely asking. As I see it, buy on credit now....inflation....sell the same goods at new/higher prices.....pay off debt/keep the profit. What am I missing?
Click to expand...
That is a very timely question.. I will give some genuine answers based on my personal experiences and observations.
- You will not be able to sell the same goods at a higher price.
- Credit card companies will be raising their interest rates faster than the increases in inflation. Inflationary times give the home field advantage to credit card companies.
- A high probability of you loosing your job / income. Then you will go and work for less money to get by. In order to hold onto a crew, they may cut the work week to 32 hours and rotate days off to keep workers on the floor.
- Depending on your own personality, as the recession takes hold, you may feel a need to help out other's (relatives, girl friend, co-workers, etc) as a result you will have less disposable income.
- There will be increases in things most people don't factor into a budget like home owners insurance increases, increase in the rental of a storage unit because people will be downsizing and there will be less of a supply of storage units. Increases in property taxes and just the cost of feeding yourself will go up.
- People will be selling off things that are not necessities. They will be forced to sell cheap.
- Demographics will change rapidly. A man will travel to a far away city for a job in order to feed his family. Dropping the kids at Grandma's won't work because Grandma has now gone out and got herself a job to supplement Grandpa's income.
- A man who is debt free will find more deals than a man with a wallet full of credit cards.

A man who is both stubborn and patient will fair well......
 
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#1,944
jetracer013 said:
Can someone please explain why i should pay off debts now, especially CC's? Genuinely asking. As I see it, buy on credit now....inflation....sell the same goods at new/higher prices.....pay off debt/keep the profit. What am I missing?
Click to expand...
If your credit cards give you airline miles and charge 3% annual interest, charge away. Otherwise it's typically 20% a trap.
Now if your mortgage is at a fixed 3%, I wouldn't worry so much about paying it off.
 
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#1,945
jetracer013 said:
Can someone please explain why i should pay off debts now, especially CC's? Genuinely asking. As I see it, buy on credit now....inflation....sell the same goods at new/higher prices.....pay off debt/keep the profit. What am I missing?
Click to expand...

The concern is that if when the Fed overcorrects, the economy could go into recession and your income could drop or disappear altogether. For example, in the first quarter of 2009, myself and my coworkers all received a 20% cut in our pay. We still considered ourselves fortunate, because about 25% of the salaried workforce got let go and the hourly workforce was averaging maybe a day per week for the next few months. That's not a good time to be carrying a bunch of extra debt just because it seemed like a good counter-inflationary play.

If you actually think that wages will track inflation, then maybe it'd be beneficial to hold off on replaying debt. But there's no evidence I've seen of such a thing, and if wages were to rise, you can bet that's just going to cause the Fed to get even more aggressive.
 
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#1,946
Thank you for the replies. To be clear, that is not my business plan, just an off the cuff hypothetical. Maybe I'm conflating cc's with all debt which is not what you were saying. High or variable rates are the problem, not my long term low/fixed rate obligations. Again, thanks for helping me clear that up.
 
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#1,947
jetracer013 said:
Thank you for the replies. To be clear, that is not my business plan, just an off the cuff hypothetical. Maybe I'm conflating cc's with all debt which is not what you were saying. High or variable rates are the problem, not my long term low/fixed rate obligations. Again, thanks for helping me clear that up.
Click to expand...
Understood....
What is an off the cuff hypothetical today will evolve into a "grasping at straw's" disaster as a recession deepens. Desperation brings out evil. Not a pretty sight to see.
 
#1,949
jetracer013 said:
Can someone please explain why i should pay off debts now, especially CC's? Genuinely asking. As I see it, buy on credit now....inflation....sell the same goods at new/higher prices.....pay off debt/keep the profit. What am I missing?
Click to expand...
If your ROI (return on investment) is better than the 25 - 36% the credit utilization will cost you, then go for it.
 
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