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Suppressors The State of the HPA

TexasGunTrustLawyer

TexasGunTrustLawyer

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The truth about the HPA and 41F? Can we, as Gun Culture 3.0, handle the truth? Its not as done a deal as we were led to believe! Kel said it. Now I'm saying it

What is the truth? The truth is that it is unlikeky that the HPA will reach the President's desk anytime soon.

Gemtech's CEO, Ron Martinez, a member of the ASA board, has been saying that HPA isn't a done deal for several months.

Now that Silencerco has laid off a large percentage of its workforce, it looks like Mr. Waldron is finally admitting that the HPA isnt as done a deal as they led us to believe. Maybe they should have fought to defund 41F before it was implemented on July 13, 2016 instead of telling everyone the Hearing Protection Act was a done deal.

The reports I have received from across the industry, both on the manufacturer and retail level since July 13th is that suppressor sales are way down. It's my understanding that SHOT show, while heavily attended, did not result in the usual number of orders.

Kel Whelan commented that "41F is the true killer of sales from the existing customer base. "Waiting for HPA" is a lot of noise from potential new customers that weren't going to buy anyway, but might if things got cheaper. The one-two punch of both of these factors make it look like the sky is falling, but you have to discount a lot of the newbie HPA wishers. They weren't going to factor into normal sales velocity regardless."

The increased demand for silencers in the months preceeding the implementation of 41F coupled with the irrational exuberence of the imminent passage of the HPA likely spurred some manufacturers to take on additional debt to expand their production capacity. The apparent bet was that the HPA would pass in the first 100 days, which would have lead to a second surge in demand as new buyers entered the newly deregulated market. When this didn't happen, all that debt still had to be repaid. Repaying the additional debt may be hard with sales slow as they are.

All of us want the Hearing Protection Act to reach the President's desk and be signed into law. However, those who are waiting to purchase a suppressor are going to be waiting a long time.

If you have friends who are waiting purchase their first suppressor, tell them they need to start the purchase process. This waiting for the HPA coupled with the additional impediments imposed on the purchaser by 41F is killing the industry.

We, the owners, retailers and manufacturers should have fought to defund 41 before July 13 and then we could have worked on the HPA without the pressure that the industry faces. Its not to late to kill 41F. Congress can defund it. We can work on HPA concurrently.

[video]http://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/2017/02/dean-weingartendean-weingarten/silencerco-ceo-josh-waldron-hearing-protection-acts-not-a-done-deal/[/video]

[video]http://www.ar15news.com/2017/02/13/silencerco-layoffs-hpa-ron-martinez-ceo-gemtech-offers-perspective/[/video]


Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk


 
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I agree with that. As I have said I have friends who don't want to jump through hoops but "claim" they will be one of the first to buy if HPA passes. Right now they are non-issue. They won't buy until is passes.
 
I think more of what we've seen has to do with the panic buying of suppressors and firearms in general because most were expecting a Hillary victory. When Trump won there was a collective sigh of relief and a diminished urgency to buy.

The Trump victory has resulted in significant slowing in the firearms industry as many feel they have more time to decide and is why you see more heavily discounted ammunition and firearms, particularly in the infamous "assault rifle" world, than you did before the election.

In my opinion, at least, this is why many are currently on the sidelines just waiting for an opportunity to buy. Passing of HPA would certainly help the industry but the additional burden placed on us by 41f are unlikely to deter many that would have been willing to deal with prior regulations.
 
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It would be great if, after the HPA, the price of suppressors is reduced drastically. Never made much sense to me why a company would rape its customers so hard, other than because "they can". Tube of metal that cost $80 to produce cost me $1800. I would love to see these companies scramble to make sales.
 
$1800 where the hell you shopping. My last go around I did 3 for less than that (not including tax stamp). Right now cans made in America are 2nd to none in quality, basically the Porsche 918 of the suppressor world. The metallurgy and technology in manufacturing them is a lot more than people would think. The cheap cans others have posted about outside the USA are just that cheap throw away stuff. I am not knocking how the market is in other places, if you can replace it on a moments notice for $300 then it isn't all bad. But with the hoops that we are currently required to jump through the market demands a premium product. Also those willing to jump through those hoops are limited and the matter of scale comes into play.

If and when HPA passes you will see the same thing here. Some will continue to make Porsche and Lamborghini while others will make Chevy Novas. You can just look around and see in your everyday life that quality is rarely respected anymore.
 
EGwhisper said:
It would be great if, after the HPA, the price of suppressors is reduced drastically. Never made much sense to me why a company would rape its customers so hard, other than because "they can". Tube of metal that cost $80 to produce cost me $1800. I would love to see these companies scramble to make sales.
Click to expand...

Glad all mine are on form 1's, as they are dirt cheap to build. The stamps cost 4-5 times what the material costs, depending.
 
EGwhisper said:
It would be great if, after the HPA, the price of suppressors is reduced drastically. Never made much sense to me why a company would rape its customers so hard, other than because "they can". Tube of metal that cost $80 to produce cost me $1800. I would love to see these companies scramble to make sales.
Click to expand...

It's not quite that simple.

- CNC machines
- tooling
- materials
- labor
- R&D
- electricity
- water
- licensing (FFL and business)
- permits
- attorneys
- insurance
- office staff
- computers
- software
- phones
- internet
- advertising
- accounting

These are just a few expenses I can think of and sure I'm missing more than a few.
 
The price of cans will drop like a rock if/when the HPA passes as most will not buy factory. Is 2-3 db (dry) when using high speed ammo worth an extra grand? Most I have talked to say no. Plus when shooting subs there is no difference if it is built right. Remember if it passes and they are treated like a firearm (which is stupid) you can built your own. That opens up for guys w/o machines an tooling to either go to a friends an use thiers (while their friend makes sure they don't do something stupid) or buy a very small lathe an build their own. Either way the days of retiring from making giggi cans is about over. The money will be made threading barrels PROPERLY until factory's get it right an caught up. They opened the can of worms but I don't believe they fully understood or thought out the long term effects.
 
2ndamendfan said:
$1800 where the hell you shopping. My last go around I did 3 for less than that (not including tax stamp). Right now cans made in America are 2nd to none in quality, basically the Porsche 918 of the suppressor world. The metallurgy and technology in manufacturing them is a lot more than people would think. The cheap cans others have posted about outside the USA are just that cheap throw away stuff. I am not knocking how the market is in other places, if you can replace it on a moments notice for $300 then it isn't all bad. But with the hoops that we are currently required to jump through the market demands a premium product. Also those willing to jump through those hoops are limited and the matter of scale comes into play.

If and when HPA passes you will see the same thing here. Some will continue to make Porsche and Lamborghini while others will make Chevy Novas. You can just look around and see in your everyday life that quality is rarely respected anymore.
Click to expand...

As it is, when I buy a suppressor I don't waste my $200 stamp and time on a $200 suppressor. The Surefire lineup ranges from $1100-2500, after sales tax.
 
HansohnBrothers said:
It's not quite that simple.

- CNC machines
- tooling
- materials
- labor
- R&D
- electricity
- water
- licensing (FFL and business)
- permits
- attorneys
- insurance
- office staff
- computers
- software
- phones
- internet
- advertising
- accounting

These are just a few expenses I can think of and sure I'm missing more than a few.
Click to expand...

Says the dealer. I am aware of the overhead involved. Scissor manufacturers have those things as well, but I don't see a pair of scissors costing 15x their cost to make. From what I understand, much of the expense is paid out to R&D, which is a very vague area. Maybe the "R&D" people could be more efficient. I'm simply pointing out that, if the HPA passes, the barriers to entry will diminish for new manufacturers around every corner, driving the prices down and hopefully ruining the days of customers being raped by silencer companies' greed.
 
Unless we vote out McCain and the rest of his like minded fuckwits it won't happen. I can see it passing in the House but Senate no chance. Best chance is vote in some new blood on our side come 20118 or kiss it good bye.
 
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EGwhisper said:
As it is, when I buy a suppressor I don't waste my $200 stamp and time on a $200 suppressor. The Surefire lineup ranges from $1100-2500, after sales tax.
Click to expand...

If you are some how are trying to either feel elitists by saying you buy a Buggati every chance you get that is fine it is your ego. Or if you are somehow trying to demean me because I don't pay retail then again have fun swimming in your own self righteousness. As has been stated by others, suppressors are pretty simple devices, quality matterials and machine work is what it takes. No magic fairy dust.
Dont get pissed at me cause i find deals/close outs on Griffin, SAS, CRUX, SilencerCo, that are some times equal to buy 3 for the price of 1. I paid retail on one once (knights armament) and that was stupid.

I agree if HPA passes prices will drop once the surge is over. Personally i think SilencerCo made a bet and lost. It actually will be impressive if they survive their own egos.
 
2ndamendfan said:
If you are some how are trying to either feel elitists by saying you buy a Buggati every chance you get that is fine it is your ego. Or if you are somehow trying to demean me because I don't pay retail then again have fun swimming in your own self righteousness. As has been stated by others, suppressors are pretty simple devices, quality matterials and machine work is what it takes. No magic fairy dust.
Dont get pissed at me cause i find deals/close outs on Griffin, SAS, CRUX, SilencerCo, that are some times equal to buy 3 for the price of 1. I paid retail on one once (knights armament) and that was stupid.

I agree if HPA passes prices will drop once the surge is over. Personally i think SilencerCo made a bet and lost. It actually will be impressive if they survive their own egos.
Click to expand...

I'm not trying to do either of those, I'm not the one who began with bashing someone on their gear by saying "I got something just as good but cheaper" when that isn't even the point of the conversation at all. If you want to know the differences between a top tier suppressor and the walmart special, start a new thread or use the googler. Good for you, don't get your panties in a bunch and be overly sensitive. If you really have a problem, PM me. I don't need 12 different suppressors so I buy once and cry once on the few that I do that meet my exact needs and durability standards.

The question is when to buy (since the HPA will refund the $200 stamp if it passes to anyone who applied after Fall 2016). Sales are dismal right now and there are a lot of good deals out there, but I believe there will be an initial spike after it passes then prices will slowly come down as more "common" people hop on and more manufacturers pop up.
 
EGwhisper said:
Says the dealer. I am aware of the overhead involved. Scissor manufacturers have those things as well, but I don't see a pair of scissors costing 15x their cost to make. From what I understand, much of the expense is paid out to R&D, which is a very vague area. Maybe the "R&D" people could be more efficient. I'm simply pointing out that, if the HPA passes, the barriers to entry will diminish for new manufacturers around every corner, driving the prices down and hopefully ruining the days of customers being raped by silencer companies' greed.
Click to expand...

Wow. Limited number of cans being produced. Manufacturer needs titanium manufacturing capabilities. Also, like an airplane, weight and strength need optimized. Screw this up with 60,000 psi chamber pressure and a projectile and it's a problem. Those are specialty fields, they aren't cranking out spoons and metal hinges. Then there's the liability side....

If you think it's a big profit center, invest in yourself and start a business making them.
 
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(Overpriced) is the opinion of the would be customer. My opinion is that most of everything we buy is overpriced. Its not limited to suppressor companies. I think we should focus on the REAL problem and that's the f@ckin ATF and Congress. A suppressor should be the same as a magazine or a scope. Its an accessory and nothing more.

I think the market will correct itself regardless of the HPA. The suppressor industry determined the prices, and hardly anyone is willing to pay that much for metal tubes now that the HPA has been introduced. Its has become a very difficult time for those companies and there will be a huge shift in the way these companies operate whether or not it passes. If it does pass, then a lot more competition will surface and will drop overall prices. If it fails to pass, people will still probably not pay the money these companies are asking for their products. I think the consumer will ultimately win in either direction of the HPA. And if the consumers wait it out, prices will fall to what they are willing to pay. Everyone that says (Buy now) isn't doing fellow consumers any favors. My opinion is wait it out, and let prices fall for everyone.
 
Has anyone noticed a significant price drop? I have been watching locally and if anything it seems supplies are tight and prices strong.
 
Why would there be a price drop? The HPA isn't even close to getting out of committee let alone passing and we are still in the pre-41f form 4s. No one has anything in stock because customers are not buying so why stock? Good chance this whole fubar market will take a year to settle itself out. By that time if we're lucky the HPA might be out of committee and all the 41f forms will be done.
 
Flyingbullseye said:
Why would there be a price drop? The HPA isn't even close to getting out of committee let alone passing and we are still in the pre-41f form 4s. No one has anything in stock because customers are not buying so why stock? Good chance this whole fubar market will take a year to settle itself out. By that time if we're lucky the HPA might be out of committee and all the 41f forms will be done.
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Yea what a cluster fuck of events. First 41F, then Hillary heir-apparent, followed by unexpected Trump win, then the promise of HPA.

Or decoded: panic buy, panic buy, softening of sales, crashing sales.......

Smart money is, buy now. From where I'm sitting, once the 41F hump is over we'll have a window of exceedingly fast approvals. If HPA passes there will be no stock. If it fails there will be another huge surge in demand. Either way if you want a can in the next year or two, buy now......




 
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Why would approvals speed up after the pre-41F purchases are caught up?. Isn't the paperwork significantly more than before? However many hours it took to review one purchase could now take more time to review. IMO, sales could drop significantly and wait times continue to rise due to the order(s) of magnitude increase in paperwork that needs to be reviewed for each purchase now. Time will tell.

Seems like the most successful thing to lobby for while the HPA works its way through, is to simply get rid of 41F. Its just a rule. No laws were passed to institute it. Should just take a phone call or email from some one, probably doesn't even need to come from Trump.

A phone call could also bring back e-file Form 4s.
 
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I have watched a 100% titanium suppressor being made. These are precision suppressors meant for precision rifles using a precision titanium monocore.
The time, equipment and materials are not cheap. The markup is not all that and a bag of chips. Let's not forget, there are frequently middlemen involved, driving up the price.
 
The thing is we don't know how many June and July panic buy pre 41f forms there are. We might hit a lull with the May forms then the time spikes for the next 2 subsequent months of forms. Zac or anyone else in the know have any idea how long it takes a NFA employee to complete a single form 4? I can't think it would be all that long.

I've said the same thing among a few friends that shoot as Zac about the wait time once the pre-41f forms are through. The wait time will drop but how long that is who knows and I'd wager will be quite some time to come.

Unless the HPA is a rider to a bill that has to pass such as the budget or for Vets I can't see it clearing the Senate with McCain and other RINOs still there. If we had a greater majority I'd feel better but as it stands it would most likely pass in the House and die in the Senate.
 
I am stuck in Illinois and I personally know 10 people ready to buy as soon as they become legal in this hell hole, and I barely know a fraction of the local shooters! I mean cash set aside just waiting for it to pass...not the folks that are all talk, but true buyers. Hell, I would be budgeting for it if I thought it would pass sooner.
 
Flyingbullseye said:
The thing is we don't know how many June and July panic buy pre 41f forms there are. We might hit a lull with the May forms then the time spikes for the next 2 subsequent months of forms. Zac or anyone else in the know have any idea how long it takes a NFA employee to complete a single form 4? I can't think it would be all that long.

I've said the same thing among a few friends that shoot as Zac about the wait time once the pre-41f forms are through. The wait time will drop but how long that is who knows and I'd wager will be quite some time to come.

Unless the HPA is a rider to a bill that has to pass such as the budget or for Vets I can't see it clearing the Senate with McCain and other RINOs still there. If we had a greater majority I'd feel better but as it stands it would most likely pass in the House and die in the Senate.
Click to expand...

So last may I submitted some form 4s, got approval about 5 weeks ago. just before 41F took affect silencer shop did this.
http://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/...hop-sends-2m-worth-of-nfa-stamp-applications/

once those have all been approved (6 more months or so) times will probably drop, as sales and in turn forms submitted are in the toilet. Be a good time to do a couple more SBRs
 
2ndamendfan said:
So last may I submitted some form 4s, got approval about 5 weeks ago. just before 41F took affect silencer shop did this.
http://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/...hop-sends-2m-worth-of-nfa-stamp-applications/

once those have all been approved (6 more months or so) times will probably drop, as sales and in turn forms submitted are in the toilet. Be a good time to do a couple more SBRs
Click to expand...

Yeah, saw that last summer. Thanks SS. Just got the call today my Octane is ready for pick up. I sent in my form 4 middle May so at least we know where we are at in the wait. You're probably correct regarding wait with the remaining pre-41f forms. I'm still one the fence about picking up another one or waiting just a little bit longer.
 
I sent a letter to both my state senators and received a response within a week or so to support the HPA. Check out Mac @ military arms chanel on Youtube. He has a link to a web site that can generate a letter to your state representatives. You can even tweak the letter a little if you'd like or start from scratch.
 
Flyingbullseye said:
Yeah, saw that last summer. Thanks SS. Just got the call today my Octane is ready for pick up. I sent in my form 4 middle May so at least we know where we are at in the wait. You're probably correct regarding wait with the remaining pre-41f forms. I'm still one the fence about picking up another one or waiting just a little bit longer.
Click to expand...

I submitted May 5th, if you submitted at or near the end of May then they are still about 5ish weeks away from hitting SS's massive donation. That could take months. My Understanding is someone (examiner I assume) has to read every word of every trust to make sure it is legal. Well fuck mine is something like 18 pages of lawyer talk that would put you to sleep in 15 min. I imagine they have Monster energy IV's there to stay awake. I know we bitch but think about it, it has to be the most boring job in "law enforcement" on the planet. I bet they get all excited when they find a "T" that is not crossed.
 
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Haha they have to be bored out of there minds! I bet they love to find crap wrong and go screaming down the hall!
 
I'm not waiting I just bought a SilencerCo specwar556, Rugged Oculus, and Dead Air Sandman Ti.....tax stamps being sent out as soon as the Oculus and Dead Air get the form 3's back from the BATF. My local guy that I had the cans shipped to from Capital Armory was all about the, "don't buy a can yet" thing b/c the HPA will pass. Ha like others have said, no way to make it past the Senate until next year if we get the majority seats voted in. On a side note, the Form 3 for the SpecWar happened within 3 weeks but the Form 3's for the others are still pending Its been 5 weeks on the Oculus.
 
I think that most of the guys who are "waiting on HPA to pass" are either full of shit and never really expect to spend the money for real or are misguided and think that they will buy a $1000 TBAC for $100 once it passes.

And I'm an optimistic type.
 
You can get fairly cheap cans now from lower tier manufactures. IF HPA passes, I can see a price drop on cans manufactured by start up companies and lower tier manufactures. I really dont see prices changing much on the top tier manufactures. They are top tier for a reason and I dont think they will need to slash prices to keep selling KNOWN top quality products.
 
They can keep their tax. I just want to get the suppressor in the same time frame and paperwork as the firearm it is going on.
 
For those that are talking about how you can make one at home the same as the top tier manufacturers, not quite. I work in the aerospace industry making parts for the hot side of jet engines. Some of the nastier materials go into military applications and get blown up. working with the same materials as a lot of the nice cans and with material that is tougher. 6061 aluminum, 420 ss, 440c ss, 15-5 ss, 17-4ph ss, inconel 718, inconel 909, udimet, mar m 247. These are sorted from easiest to work with to hardest. I've worked with all of these. There is a drastic difference between all of these materials. There is a reason why there is a big difference in costs. The tougher materials go through more expensive tooling a lot faster. Not unusual for 8" turbine discs to go through $500+ of inserts per part.

I had a former coworker work for silencerco. Their shop was dirty according to him. I applied there and their pay for cnc machinists was closer to starting machinists pay. Sub $14/hr

Had another coworker work for a contractor making parts for the sandman cans. I interviewed there. Nice shop, better pay than silencerco, but not good enough for me. ~17/hr

In other words, you get what you pay for more often than not especially in terms of durability. Nice materials last better.

Sent from my SM-G930T using Tapatalk

 
Thanks for posting up. It seems to me that those not familiar with precision machining and manufacturing assume that everything is cheap to make because they can buy a knock off made of inferior material and with inferior design and workmanship for less. I've tried to point this out before, but am largely ignored that would rather believe what they want to believe.

The simplest example I've tried to use is that of the Harris bipod. It costs $100+ For a notched-leg swivel Harris. Not much, when compared to the minimum of about $1500 for even the entry level precision rifles worth a damn, right? But there are those that think it's too much and will buy a Chinese knock-off for $29 online and will swear that it's just as good.

News flash! It's not! Sure, it will hold up the front end of your rifle on a bench, but then so will a pillow. I actually bought one of those pieces of crap once for a .22, using some lame-ass justification to fool myself. I ended up throwing it in the trash at the range one day and ordering a real bipod the next day. This also applies to the Atlas and it's cheap knock-offs.

Point being that the cost of good materials, design, and manufacturing practices is real and the results are tangible. Sure, there may be some markup involved for the current cost to do business under ATF regulations and the associated paperwork, but if there were tons of free money to be had in the suppressor business by selling them cheaper while still maintaining high quality, someone would be doing it. The market here in the good ol' U.S. Of A. Does work and it self corrects if there is money to be made.
 
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