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Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024


Jobless claims usually bottom out prior to a recession:


Screenshot_20220324-102643.png


Note that I trimmed the right side of the chart because the April 2020 numbers fuck up the Y-axis scale.

So, if history holds true, we're maybe 6-12 months out from the next recession. I don't place much faith in this prediction because of *waves hands at everything*
 
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Unfortunate for the first time home buyer's. Get ready for a big jump in property taxes, home insurance and maintenance cost.
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The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 4.42% this week, its highest level since January 2019, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The increase was more than one-quarter of a percentage point jump from last week’s rate of 4.16% and 1.25 percentage points higher than the same week last year.

 
Jobless claims usually bottom out prior to a recession:


View attachment 7834494

Note that I trimmed the right side of the chart because the April 2020 numbers fuck up the Y-axis scale.

So, if history holds true, we're maybe 6-12 months out from the next recession. I don't place much faith in this prediction because of *waves hands at everything*
I agree. That is why the first thing Jerome Powell said was "No one can forecast where we will be at the end of 2022"... The next 9 months will be an eye opener for many.
 
This is a very quick about face for Home Depot. Damage control.
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February 22, 2022
That's the environment facing Home Depot (HD) - Get Home Depot, Inc. Report as it tries to hire 100,000 seasonal workers across its stores and warehouses over the next few weeks. That total is up from the normal 80,000 workers the company hires for its busy spring season.
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Home Depot cut its overall workforce but boosted salaried employees by 20% last year

 
Can anyone tell me just exactly who "WE" is ? Right now $2 billion would certainly help a lot of low wage earners here in America or build the wall... When I see these kind of headlines, I ask myself "What's in it for me?"......
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2 minute ago
Brussel, Brussels Hoofdstedelijk Gewest
Biden: We decided to continue to support Kyiv with military equipment and provided 2 billion in aid to Ukraine
 
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Starting to hear this expressed more and more inverted yield curve..... Deja Vu.... We have been there before, 3 - 4 times in my life time.
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What Does an Inverted Yield Curve Suggest?​


Historically, an inverted yield curve has been viewed as an indicator of a pending economic recession. When short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, market sentiment suggests that the long-term outlook is poor and that the yields offered by long-term fixed income will continue to fall.


Not buying TSLA
 
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Starting to hear this expressed more and more inverted yield curve..... Deja Vu.... We have been there before, 3 - 4 times in my life time.
_______________

What Does an Inverted Yield Curve Suggest?​


Historically, an inverted yield curve has been viewed as an indicator of a pending economic recession. When short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, market sentiment suggests that the long-term outlook is poor and that the yields offered by long-term fixed income will continue to fall.


Not buying TSLA
That's funny, we've done it at least 7 or 8 times in my career, and that only goes back to '95. It's really a measure of risk appetite and future assumptions about rates. IIRC, 2019 was the last inversion. It's a better predictor than the stock market is, but it isn't perfect because it doesn't always have the same causes.
Can you make up your mind...LOL! What a difference a year makes

View attachment 7834709
Note that only one person on here was saying exactly this since 3/11/21. Sometimes it makes sense to listen to actual professionals rather than, well...


Other than not accounting for the marginal increased pressures of a war and concomitant sanctions, don't know you could have made a better guess at the time. Weird that the above thumbnail is wrong, but the link is correct.
 
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The end of "globalisation" ?..... IDK but it could open up some investment opportunities in the USA in the way of small start up companies.
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March 23 – Financial Times (Brooke Masters): “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will reshape the world economy and further drive up inflation by prompting companies to pull back from their global supply chains, BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink has warned. ‘The Russian invasion of Ukraine has put an end to the globalisation we have experienced over the last three decades,’ Fink wrote… While the immediate result had been Russia’s total isolation from capital markets, Fink predicted ‘companies and governments will also be looking more broadly at their dependencies on other nations. This may lead companies to onshore or nearshore more of their operations, resulting in a faster pull back from some countries.’”
 
Has anyone done a wellness check on Thomas Friedman or Paul Krugman lately? They cannot be doing well right now.
 
“We expect that March jobs and inflation data to further harden the resolve of Fed hawks -- and pull in those who were still skeptical -- of the need for a 50bps hike at the May meeting.”
 

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US was revised slightly lower to 59.4 in March of 2022 from a preliminary of 59.7, the lowest reading since August of 2011.​

 
Global bond markets are looking messy.
Treasuries have been selling off, and while bond prices have fallen across maturities, short-term yields have climbed most. That has pushed another part of the yield curve upside down. The Treasury market has posted a loss of 2.6% so far this year, according to ICE Indices.

 
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Interesting. Of course the chip shortage and the ukraine thingy are to blame.

I think it boils down to people don’t WANT to pay the cost for vehicles and have realized that the money is much better spent elsewhere.
 

Interesting. Of course the chip shortage and the ukraine thingy are to blame.

I think it boils down to people don’t WANT to pay the cost for vehicles and have realized that the money is much better spent elsewhere.
Property taxes, home owner's insurance, auto repairs, etc are eatin' up the budget through the back door.... Hopefully Uncle Sugar will stop feeding people and paying their rent. Then reality will come into the market place.
 
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The USPS needs to stop, immediately, delivering packages for UPS, FedEx, etc. Why are taxpayers paying for the final delivery on packages that are supposed to be shipping by other carrier's ?

 
Some good information in this thread. I’ll offer up some realizations to contribute to the thread here…wife and I own a Powersports shop in Texas selling major OEM brands. 2021 was one of the best years we ever had and going into 2022 thru today more and more customers keep buying. The average sale keeps going up and more are paying cash and no it’s not all oilfield guys it‘s everyone. Not doing anything different than before no advertisjig to speak of but they keep coming buying higher ticket items. I feel blessed not complaining but I keep wondering how long can this continue? Making It while we can because I remember 2008 was a banner year and by mid 2009 there were very few customers calling or buying it was bad I mean almost broke bad. Starting to feel the same way like it’s 2008 again.
Thank you for that message. America needs realization at this time. Those cash buyer's would rather have something they can put their hand on and use it... Nothing wrong with that. I agree about it feeling pre-recession, but just a bit different.
 
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I was at the local power sports shop picking up my sled after some warranty work. It's basically end of the season for snowmobiling because of the warm weather and lack of any significant new snow.

Guy at the shop said that sleds were flying out the door, don't understand why?
 
I was at the local power sports shop picking up my sled after some warranty work. It's basically end of the season for snowmobiling because of the warm weather and lack of any significant new snow.

Guy at the shop said that sleds were flying out the door, don't understand why?
That is exactly what JR_PRO77 said over in the "Recession" thread. Perhaps having money sitting in the bank is not such a good idea.... IDK
 
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That is exactly what JR_PRO77 said over in the "Recession" thread. Perhaps having money sitting in the bank is not such a good idea.... IDK
That’s been my mindset with building materials, tools, parts, and maintenance items the last two months. It looks like I’m starting my own fucking hardware store, lol.

I’m buying for pretty much the next 10 years, lol.
 
That’s been my mindset with building materials, tools, parts, and maintenance items the last two months. It looks like I’m starting my own fucking hardware store, lol.

I’m buying for pretty much the next 10 years, lol.

I have been buying / collecting tools and equipment for a off grid cabin build for months. I'm debating buying hardware / fasteners for the cabin build vs buying it after my extended road trip up north. I think I'm going to go ahead and start buying all the screws / nails I'm going to need if I can and find a deal. I think that if I wait, I might regret not having what I need.
 
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I have been buying / collecting tools and equipment for a off grid cabin build for months. I'm debating buying hardware / fasteners for the cabin build vs buying it after my extended road trip up north. I think I'm going to go ahead and start buying all the screws / nails I'm going to need if I can and find a deal. I think that if I wait, I might regret not having what I need.
I have been buying no matter the cost. I want it on hand now. Don’t care if the price drops 6 months from now.
 
I have been buying no matter the cost. I want it on hand now. Don’t care if the price drops 6 months from now.
I'm starting to change my mindset a little now. I have tried to get deals on everything I have been buying so far but now I'm at the point where I just want to know that I have what I need like yourself. I'm going to go ahead and order a sawmill and buy a wood stove also. I think that having a wood stove is going to be worth its weight in gold very soon the way things are going. I have been buying extra chainsaws / generators as well.
 
I have been buying / collecting tools and equipment for a off grid cabin build for months. I'm debating buying hardware / fasteners for the cabin build vs buying it after my extended road trip up north. I think I'm going to go ahead and start buying all the screws / nails I'm going to need if I can and find a deal. I think that if I wait, I might regret not having what I need.
I have a good friend who has been in the custom cabinet and door business for 30 years. Hardware, drawer slides, hinges and fasteners are in very short supply... The "good stuff" is disappearing quick, the cheap stuff is available... Difficult to match hardware finishes for an entire house.
 
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I have a good friend who has been in the custom cabinet and door business for 30 years. Hardware, drawer slides, hinges and fasteners are in very short supply... The "good stuff" is disappearing quick, the cheap stuff is available... Difficult to match hardware finishes for an entire house.
I noticed this a year or so back. Higher end stuff was moving, el cheapo shit wasn’t. Seems people found that high quality items are much cheaper than shit items.
 
I noticed this a year or so back. Higher end stuff was moving, el cheapo shit wasn’t. Seems people found that high quality items are much cheaper than shit items.

What I have seen in my business is a smaller but more competitive market full of people who have almost unlimited budgets transposed against a much larger market of people who are on critically tight budgets.
 
I noticed this a year or so back. Higher end stuff was moving, el cheapo shit wasn’t. Seems people found that high quality items are much cheaper than shit items.
Food is doing the same thing.... Notice the full shelves versus the empty shelves... Quality of produce, fruits, veggies... Much more "fillers" (soy meal, etc).. things are changing.
 
What I have seen in my business is a smaller but more competitive market full of people who have almost unlimited budgets transposed against a much larger market of people who are on critically tight budgets.
This…not quite as many customers but the ones you earn have more money to spend.
 
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I have a good friend who has been in the custom cabinet and door business for 30 years. Hardware, drawer slides, hinges and fasteners are in very short supply... The "good stuff" is disappearing quick, the cheap stuff is available... Difficult to match hardware finishes for an entire house.
Some help in that area: if the hardware cannot be found you can try to go to a machine shop for pulls, etc. You know, the stuff everyone sees. They can program the machines to crank those out if the quantity was high enough. I know I would be tempted to do it if someone explained the situation and we could come to an agreement on price and design.
 
The USPS needs to stop, immediately, delivering packages for UPS, FedEx, etc. Why are taxpayers paying for the final delivery on packages that are supposed to be shipping by other carrier's ?

I pay brownells and midway extra shipping to make sure the retards at the usps don't touch my packages.

Having packages driven past your house while looking at the post office truck and then getting a failed delivery attempt message because the driver didn't want to stop? WTF

I called them out on it and all they did was protect thier driver and try and lie. The asshole had packages for up and down the street and did not feel like doing it?

I wish FedEx and ups would never drop to the postal service and pay extra to ensure they dont.
 
There is no oil shortage. There are political roadblocks stopping the movement of oil from the well head to the refineries. I call them "roadblocks" because they have been strategically placed for the past 14 months. Appearing that all along the plan has been to drain the Strategic Oil Reserves. IDK, blame it on the pandemic, the Russians or the Boogey Man.

President Joe Biden is weighing releasing a record amount of oil from US reserves as high gas prices persist.
A plan being considered involves releasing around 1 million barrels per day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the coming months, a person familiar with the deliberations says.

 
WASHINGTON (AP) — An inflation gauge that is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve jumped 6.4% in February compared with a year ago, with sharply higher prices for food, gasoline and other necessities squeezing Americans’ finances.
The figure reported Thursday by the Commerce Department was the largest year-over-year rise since January 1982. Excluding volatile prices for food and energy, so-called core inflation increased 5.4% in February from 12 months earlier.
Robust consumer demand has combined with shortages of many goods to fuel the sharpest price jumps in four decades. Escalating the inflation pressures, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted global oil markets and accelerated prices for wheat, nickel and other key commodities.
The inflation spike took a toll on consumers, whose spending in February rose just 0.2%, down from a much larger 2.7% gain in January. Adjusted for inflation, spending actually fell 0.4% last month.
 
First trading day of the Second Quarter... Note the sector where the loses are... Hmmmm, money leaving the transportation sector. Less goods to be moved in the near future.

TOP DECLINERS​




 
Well written, lengthy article. The dots are connected for you.....

Russia has been stockpiling food, and last week Putin announced to his people on Russian TV that the country had five years of food stockpiled, so they need nothing from the USA- or frankly, anyone else. China has stockpiled 18 months of wheat to feed their people, but their agents are busily moving around America buying any stored wheat they can get their hands on- by the trainload, at whatever price they have to pay- and sending it on cargo ships back to China.



 
Self induced recession coming fast, while the global south will suffer war and famine thanks to Brandon and Putin . Where the fuck is Kamala with her Venezuelan blowjobs for oil tour?

The Executive Order is here and it does seem to prohibit crude oil imports from Russia.
However, three weeks later the U.S. is still importing Russian crude oil
Some U.S. refineries at the south coast are designed to only process heavy oil variants. Since 2019 the U.S. has blockaded heavy oil imports from Venezuela and replaced them with imports of heavy Ural variants from Russia. It has now send two officials to Caracas to try to get Venezuela's oil flowing again. That would of course require to lift all sanctions off Venezuela and to return all confiscated companies and the gold that is owned by that country. It is not going to happen anytime soon.
Diesel and heating oil consist of long hydrocarbon chains. Lighter types of crude oil lack these. There are ways to create longer hydrocarbon chains from shorter ones but those processes are expensive. It is much easier to start off with heavy crude oil and to break it down when needed.
Without heavy Russian Ural crude oil the U.S. has no efficient way to create diesel and heating oil. This while we are in a global diesel crisis:
Diesel is what freight transport uses to deliver goods to consumers, but it is also what industrial transport uses for fuel. With Russian refiners cutting their processing rates in the wake of several waves of Western sanctions, the already tight diesel supply is going to get a lot tighter.
"Governments have a very clear understanding that there is a clear link between diesel and GDP, because almost everything that goes into and out of a factory goes using diesel," the director general of Fuels Europe, part of the European Petroleum Refiners Association, told Reuters this week.
As Vitol's Russell Hardy noted earlier this week, "Europe imports about half of its diesel from Russia and about half of its diesel from the Middle East. That systemic shortfall of diesel is there."
Europe is not the only one feeling the diesel pinch, however. Middle distillate stocks are on a decline in the United States, too, Reuters' John Kemp wrote in his latest column.

The Biden administration announced yesterday that it would release 1 million barrels of crude oil per day from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). While this voter bribe will likely lower elevated gasoline prices it is doubtful that the SPR includes enough heavy crude to make a difference in the diesel market.It is diesel, more than gasoline, that is driving inflation.
The U.S. is therefore likely to continue to cheat on its own sanctions.

Brandon induced global hunger is kicking off.
 
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I think the war we are witnessing is happening in a very timely manner. We have some younger generations that think "War" is what has been portrayed by Hollywood / Video games / Liberal propaganda and allowing a society to retreat into denial... I hope every young American gets to view the photos and video's from the war.... Unfortunate they can't smell it and feel it on their skin and in their eyes and ears.

Why do I say this ? Perhaps it will be a motivating factor when it sinks in that what is being seen in the Ukraine will soon be seen in their neighborhood if things don't change here in America.

JMHO
 
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That’s been my mindset with building materials, tools, parts, and maintenance items the last two months. It looks like I’m starting my own fucking hardware store, lol.

I’m buying for pretty much the next 10 years, lol.
Not that you and I require "validation".. Just pointing out how other's see the future.
 
127 million +/- American's are employed full time.
Total U.S. population as of Dec. 1, 2021 was estimated at 331,893,745,
One out of every 3 Americans are earning a paycheck... a very rough figure, I know.
Getting to be a heavy load on the backs of very few....


Target Corp (TGT.N) is preparing to let shoppers use food stamps to pay for online orders, following in the footsteps of Walmart Inc and
 
Now take out the city, county, state and federal workers from that employed number. They are leaches on the tax dollars of the producers.
127 million +/- American's are employed full time.
Total U.S. population as of Dec. 1, 2021 was estimated at 331,893,745,
One out of every 3 Americans are earning a paycheck... a very rough figure, I know.
Getting to be a heavy load on the backs of very few....


Target Corp (TGT.N) is preparing to let shoppers use food stamps to pay for online orders, following in the footsteps of Walmart Inc and