Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

[DarnYankeeUSMC]

70k+ for a commuter vehicle is retarded.

You can literally buy real estate for that. Just insane.

I explained this to my kids. To buy a high dollar vehicle to sit in your driveway from 6pm until 7am then drive 15 Miles to work where it sits for 9 more hours is crazy. But it'll look cool when you go to the grocery store until someone bashes it with a cart or door.
Buy used and let someone else eat the sticker. Drive it until the wheels fall off and then get another parking lot queen.
Invest the savings and retire early or work to support your car?

 

[lariat]

I explained this to my kids. To buy a high dollar vehicle to sit in your driveway from 6pm until 7am then drive 15 Miles to work where it sits for 9 more hours is crazy. But it'll look cool when you go to the grocery store until someone bashes it with a cart or door.
Buy used and let someone else eat the sticker. Drive it until the wheels fall off and then get another parking lot queen.
Invest the savings and retire early or work to support your car?

I was talking this over with someone the other day. The purchase premium some are willing to pay to impress others or meet others' standards and "belong" to a group is foolishness and shows the level of insecurity some have. But hey, I'm good with everyone doing their own thing, just don't bitch to me about the unfairness of it all when economic forces come to visit you concerning much more than your vehicle's extended warranty.

 

[DarnYankeeUSMC]

Maybe they learned something from the '08 debacle?
@Hobo Hilton asked where Powell is. I stated that this really feels like it did before '08 but something is different. '08 the combination of rate hikes, gas prices and a couple other things started the crash. Right now people have bought over priced homes and vehicles. They have financed all kinds of toys (boats, side by side) so they are stretched thin. The belief that I can make that payment is about to catch up.
We are basically back to '08 except for Powell hasn't acted yet. Is he coin tossing? Raise the rate and crash? Do nothing and let it play out with hyperinflation? $30 trillion dollars in debt is a pretty good size set of handcuffs.

 

[DarnYankeeUSMC]

That's the fucked up part. All those programs to bail out the POS that lives beyond their means.

I was talking this over with someone the other day. The purchase premium some are willing to pay to impress others or meet others' standards and "belong" to a group is foolishness and shows the level of insecurity some have. But hey, I'm good with everyone doing their own thing, just don't bitch to me about the unfairness of it all when economic forces come to visit you concerning much more than your vehicle's extended warranty.

I had someone tell me that they didn't care about losing it. They said, at least they had it for a while. It's better to have driven that fancy car, boat, 4X4, four wheelers and big house than to never have had them. They said in a couple years it's off the record and they'll do it again.

 

[Deleted member 181377]

Even though be I'm debt free, I'm still under the Thumb of big government.

Income tax
Property tax
Vehicle registration
Forced Insurance
Etc.

He's a good earner!

 

[lariat]

That's the fucked up part. All those programs to bail out the POS that lives beyond their means.

I had someone tell me that they didn't care about losing it. They said, at least they had it for a while. It's better to have driven that fancy car, boat, 4X4, four wheelers and big house than to never have had them. They said in a couple years it's off the record and they'll do it again.

And this is what I'm talking about regarding dignity and honor. That person has neither. Those are unreliable people for every instance in life.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I was talking this over with someone the other day. The purchase premium some are willing to pay to impress others or meet others' standards and "belong" to a group is foolishness and shows the level of insecurity some have. But hey, I'm good with everyone doing their own thing, just don't bitch to me about the unfairness of it all when economic forces come to visit you concerning much more than your vehicle's extended warranty.

Their plan, historically, has been for the working middle class to bail out those who bought the play toys, houses (with zero down) and ran up credit cards at Walmart.... What feels different on this go-round is there is no fat left (financially) in a working middle class household.....

The fall out with disposable income has started when the free money flow slowed down.

Real Disposable Personal Income

Graph and download economic data for Real Disposable Personal Income (DSPIC96) from Jan 1959 to Nov 2023 about disposable, personal income, personal, income, real, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

 

[lariat]

I honestly think that this is closest we have been to deflationary risk in a long time. Like no bullshit deflation due to credit defaults and a crashing of transaction velocity in the economy combined with a super low savings rate. There is a real chance to fuck things up terribly here. High inflation and deflation ride the same horse. The monetary inflation combined with gas prices has hit so fast that the risk is that there is a corresponding correction that is just as quick (if not quicker) and pushes into overcorrection with no way to stop it. The Fed better be stacking up cigarette butts in a meeting room to figure this one out. Deflation is no fucking joke.

 

[E. Bryant]

I explained this to my kids. To buy a high dollar vehicle to sit in your driveway from 6pm until 7am then drive 15 Miles to work where it sits for 9 more hours is crazy. But it'll look cool when you go to the grocery store until someone bashes it with a cart or door.
Buy used and let someone else eat the sticker. Drive it until the wheels fall off and then get another parking lot queen.
Invest the savings and retire early or work to support your car?

As a bonus, those of us in the Salt Belt get to watch our vehicles rot away a little bit each winter. Oh, you can do weekly carwashes (add up all of those at $10/pop and it's suddenly real money), or you can park it for six months every year while still making payments.

I'd feel better about spending $75k on a truck if I was getting brake lines that wouldn't rot and calipers that wouldn't stick and a warranty that wouldn't expire while I was still making payments.

 

[E. Bryant]

I honestly think that this is closest we have been to deflationary risk in a long time. Like no bullshit deflation due to credit defaults and a crashing of transaction velocity in the economy combined with a super low savings rate. There is a real chance to fuck things up terribly here. High inflation and deflation ride the same horse. The monetary inflation combined with gas prices has hit so fast that the risk is that there is a corresponding correction that is just as quick (if not quicker) and pushes into overcorrection with no way to stop it. The Fed better be stacking up cigarette butts in a meeting room to figure this one out. Deflation is no fucking joke.

Yes, yes, yes. I think that's the reason the Fed hasn't yet moved. Retail prices are sky-high, but GDP is barely positive once inventory builds are stripped out, and wages are still stagnant.

Just a quick reminder that copper was $4/lb in late June 2008 and $1.30 six months later.

 

[Bigfatcock]

As a bonus, those of us in the Salt Belt get to watch our vehicles rot away a little bit each winter. Oh, you can do weekly carwashes (add up all of those at $10/pop and it's suddenly real money), or you can park it for six months every year while still making payments.

I'd feel better about spending $75k on a truck if I was getting brake lines that wouldn't rot and calipers that wouldn't stick and a warranty that wouldn't expire while I was still making payments.

I don’t think I’ll ever feel good about $75k for a truck. That’s mortgage territory.

Shit , I almost had a stroke when I paid $35K for my Titan Pro-4X in 2014.

 

[E. Bryant]

I don’t think I’ll ever feel good about $75k for a truck. That’s mortgage territory.

Shit , I almost had a stroke when I paid $35K for my Titan Pro-4X in 2014.

I'd feel a lot better about it if I wasn't going to run into the same run-of-the-mill problems that I'd get with a $25k sedan.

Regardless, as has been stated before, this is a massive misallocation of capital. Combined with massively oversized homes, we've put trillions of dollars into stuff that fundamentally isn't growing productivity. Had we sunk that money into onshoring critical goods, we might be in a better position to deal with the future.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Where is Jerome?
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he would call for a quarter-percentage-point hike when central bank officials meet later this month. He also warned that higher energy costs would place additional “upward pressure” on inflation.

Inflation skyrockets 7.9% to four-decade high in February as gas prices surge - REPORT DOOR

Red-hot inflation skyrocketed to a fresh four-decade high of 7.9% in February – with consumer pain only expected to get worse in the weeks ahead as the

www.reportdoor.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

When you are tracking all of these and the screen comes up in red.... Good indicator of where things are heading.

DOW 30​

-1.37%
-456.12
32,830.13

S&P 500​

-1.58%
-67.54
4,210.34

NASDAQ 100​

-2.44%
-335.88
13,406.32

gold​

-2.56%
1,997.33

oil (wti)​

-11.78%
110.10

BTC/USD​

-6.87%
39,113.21

 

[Arc Light]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-recession-inflation-40-year-high

I don't blame Putin one bit. I blame Biden and the scumbags who voted for him for destroying our economy in 1 year. If half the voters in this country were not as stupid as a tree stump, a Democrat would never get elected to any office in this country ever again.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Well written, in depth article. The jest of it is:
Because they discount falling purchasing power for currencies, rising interest rates, and collapsing bond prices are now inevitable. Being loaded up with bonds and financial assets as collateral, the consequences for the global banking system are so significant that it is virtually impossible to see how it can survive. And if the banking system faces collapse, being unbacked by anything other than rapidly disappearing faith in them fiat currencies will fail as well.

The end of fiat hoving into view…

The end of fiat hoving into view…

www.goldmoney.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Central banks were already between a rock and a hard place prior to the invasion as they sought to control inflation without negatively impacting the recovery from the pandemic. Soon they may be forced to choose between inflation and recession.

forexnewspress.com

This domain may be for sale!

forexnewspress.com

 

[E. Bryant]

Central banks were already between a rock and a hard place prior to the invasion as they sought to control inflation without negatively impacting the recovery from the pandemic. Soon they may be forced to choose between inflation and recession.

forexnewspress.com

This domain may be for sale!

forexnewspress.com

Hah, joke's on them; they're gonna get both.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

What's happening: The world's second-largest economy is pushing ahead with its "zero-Covid" strategy, even as many other governments decide it's time to learn to live with the virus.

China's new Covid lockdowns are another threat to the economy

Russia's war in Ukraine is roiling the global economy as policymakers race to get high inflation under control. But China's response to its worst outbreak of Covid-19 in two years is a reminder that the conflict isn't the only risk to the recovery.

www.cnn.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Escalating sanctions by the West to punish Russia for its war against Ukraine are driving fears that an episode of increased inflation, already at its highest levels in 40 years, will become harder to wring out of the U.S. economy without a recession.

The Inflation Hits Just Keep Coming, Raising Stakes for the Fed

Rising oil prices, the Ukraine war and continuing supply-chain issues have complicated the Federal Reserve’s push to tame inflation. The challenges boost the risk that rates go up to levels that ultimately tip the economy into recession.

www.wsj.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

For the first time since before the pandemic, he said he's started to worry about the economy dropping into a recession. "Earlier this year, it felt like things were getting a little better - now, it feels like wind is blowing in our face again."

New wave of inflation - and disruptions - hits U.S. factory floors

Surging inflation is disrupting everything from carpools to the ability to quote prices on new business at already-strained U.S. factories.

www.reuters.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

We can only hope this won't happen... America is not in a position to ride out too many more financial downturns.
____________________

London (CNN Business)Russia has sent the clearest signal yet that it will soon default — the first time it will have failed to meet its foreign debt obligations since the Bolshevik revolution more than a century ago.
Half of the country's foreign reserves — roughly $315 billion — have been frozen by Western sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine, Russian finance minister Anton Siluanov said on Sunday. As a result, Moscow will repay creditors from "countries that are unfriendly" in rubles until the sanctions are lifted, he said.

Russia could default on its debt within days

Russia has sent the clearest signal yet that it will soon default — the first time it will have failed to meet its foreign debt obligations since the Bolshevik revolution more than a century ago.

www.cnn.com

 

[Milf Dots]

Tide detergent 107 loads---- up about $4
Dog treats 450 count------- up about $3
300 count uncoated paper plates- up about $2

Magnum XLs---- Priceless

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Wtf are you talking about? The economy is booming

I guess so:

Walmart to hire 50,000 U.S. associates in the first quarter ... starting at $31.40 per pay period and improved technology for store workers.




I hear Walmart is selling ocean front property in Arizona, also.

Walmart to hire 50,000 U.S. associates in the first quarter - Media Leaflets

Source link

medialeaflets.com

 

[Bigfatcock]

$31.40 to work at Walmart? Shit, I’d do it!

 

[NoDopes]

You clipped some important parts out...

The announcement was part of a blog post, authored by Donna Morris, Walmart’s chief people officer, who detailed the perks of working for the retail giant, including career advancement, health care benefits starting at $31.40 per pay period and improved technology for store workers. Walmart’s average hourly pay is $16.40 per hour with some roles reaching $30 per hour in certain markets.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

FED Chairman Powell's address:
I listened from start to finish, including the questions at the end of the broadcast. The bulleted notes below were made as I listened.
Seems the FED's main goal is to, somehow, stabilize prices. My opinion is the FED wants to protect businesses by not having business failures. The consumers will have to adjust to keeping businesses afloat. Powell says the economy must "slow down". He kept mentioning the tools the FED has to work with. He spoke of wages returning to normal. Basically workers making less money will reduce demand. How this will happen was not explained. Every time the auto industry / prices were mentioned, somehow Powell appeared to visualize lower selling prices on autos ???
during questioning some reporter's asked his opinion or opinions about other departments like the Treasury department. Powell would not go there with an opinion. Both the pandemic and the war came into the picture a few times. these issues and similar issues put the FED behind the curve. What was implied was the FED would react quicker in the future...
In my notes it was mentioned that no more Helicopter Money (Bernanke) is needed.
There was no question or any comment from Powell about the Trillions of dollars this administration was doling out... Unfortunate that was swept under the rug.

JMHO - If you can not pay cash for ANY purchases this year, then do not make that purchase. Don't "start a project" you can not financially finish before the end of this year. Don't commit yourself to any new debt for the remainder of this year. When a household item breaks, throw it in the dumpster and figure a way to function without that item. If your toaster breaks go down to Goodwill and pay cash for a replacement or toast that bread in the broiler / oven. If you have 2 vehicles and one vehicle needs tires, park it and drive the one with good tires (even if it gets less MPG)....
I know, some of you are cussing me. Get into the mindset that no one is coming to save your ass... The FED can not save America from the next recession. It is upon us.

• No one can know where the markets will be in one year
• FED is going to work towards stabilizing prices
• Inflation through the end of this year
• Supply chains getting better will lower inflation ???
• No vice chariman
• 7 more meetings / rate hikes
• Will look at inflation rate at each meeting
• High inflation "entrenched"
• Inflation = vehicles
• Wages will come down
• Unhealthy, tight labor market
• Slower demand will bring inflation down
• PRICE STABILITY, again
• Older people will stay in the labor market
• Economy no longer wants / needs accommodating financial policy (Helicopter money)
• Shrink the balance sheet, perhaps in May
• Sudden burst of inflation..... Not in framework
• FED using their tools to restore price stability
• # 1 goal = Price Stability
• # 2 = Lower inflation
• # 3 = employment
• Plan is to slow the economy
• Labor market like this has been unseen
• Rising wages create a higher standard of living.... Not happening
• Labor market - Supply vs Demand is misaligned
• Powell, somewhat, admitted the FED was behind the curve.....

 

[hollowoutadime]

Good insight.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

America has entered the recession. Link is to a long read. Unfortunate the younger American's have stopped "reading". A lot to be said / absorbed at this time. The answer to "How did America get in this situation?" is answered here.
The American empire is buckling under its own contradictions. We no longer have the luxury of decadence. Weak men have created hard times, but the hard times will create strong men, and with strong men, regime change may finally be within our grasp.

The Architects of Our Present Disaster › American Greatness

Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, The blood-dimmed tide is loosed…

amgreatness.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Home sales fell far more than expected in February, as mortgage rates rose and supply remained tight

Rising mortgage rates are starting to take their toll on homebuyers. Sales fell far more than expected in February.

www.cnbc.com

 

[DarnYankeeUSMC]

A few weeks ago I mentioned that the number of permits for construction are almost nil in my area. That was a big neon sign back before '08.

Home sales fell far more than expected in February, as mortgage rates rose and supply remained tight

Rising mortgage rates are starting to take their toll on homebuyers. Sales fell far more than expected in February.

www.cnbc.com

When they start increasing the interest rate and the adjustable rate mortgage rates go up we will be exactly where we were then. Gas prices are already tapping the average person of disposable income.

 

[Milf Dots]

Black Rock is the fully automated, free from oversight, free from public scrutiny, ETERNAL and INFINITE Government BAILOUT.

 

[vinniedelpino]

America has entered the recession. Link is to a long read. Unfortunate the younger American's have stopped "reading". A lot to be said / absorbed at this time. The answer to "How did America get in this situation?" is answered here.
The American empire is buckling under its own contradictions. We no longer have the luxury of decadence. Weak men have created hard times, but the hard times will create strong men, and with strong men, regime change may finally be within our grasp.

The Architects of Our Present Disaster › American Greatness

Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, The blood-dimmed tide is loosed…

amgreatness.com

I'm not as optimistic.

Weak men now outnumber the strong men. We've disrupted the natural order present in nature. Under normal circumstances, the weak die off and the resilient remain to reproduce and pass on their desirable traits to future generations. This is the basic principal of evolution.

Through some misdirected sense of moral responsibility we've allowed the weak to thrive at the expense of those that natural selection would have otherwise allowed to truly thrive. They've reproduced without consequence, often times with encouragement. This has produced a social structure where 61% of households pay no income tax, and are in turn supported by the other 39%. The weak have the majority, and with our present framework of government our demise is inevitable. We're devolving.

We're fucked. It's not a question of "if," but rather "when." Not to sound defeatist, but without some form of divine intervention, this is a war that can't be won under acceptable terms. Tytler nailed it.

I'm at peace with the fact that the good times are coming to an end. I'm more concerned with the timeline of it all. Are we at the complacency stage? Or the apathy stage? And how can we improve for the next time around?

 

[E. Bryant]

I'm at peace with the fact that the good times are coming to an end. I'm more concerned with the timeline of it all. Are we at the complacency stage? Or the apathy stage? And how can we improve for the next time around?

Gen Z will mop up the mess left to them by the Boomers, Gen X, and Millennials. Something will push them over a line and it'll be game on. How it gets lit off and the methods they employ in the process of righting these wrongs are the key questions.

Those with sons who will turning into young adults over the next 5-10 years might want to put some real thought into passing along practical skills and developing physical and mental toughness.

 

[Lawless]

My buddy Terry and I used to joke that we’ll be sitting around the fire telling stories to the young ones some day about “cell phones” and ”internet” and “electricity” and they’ll stare in wonder but not comprehend.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Gen Z will mop up the mess left to them by the Boomers, Gen X, and Millennials. Something will push them over a line and it'll be game on. How it gets lit off and the methods they employ in the process of righting these wrongs are the key questions.

Those with sons who will turning into young adults over the next 5-10 years might want to put some real thought into passing along practical skills and developing physical and mental toughness.

This would be the most positive outcome for America.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I have mentioned, several times, that this recession "feels different"... I'm starting to think it is different because it is worldwide.

German producer prices jump by record 25.9%

BERLIN (Reuters) - German producer prices maintained their record-breaking rise in February, increasing 25.9% year on year mainly because of energy pr...

whtc.com

 

[Bigfatcock]

I have mentioned, several times, that this recession "feels different"... I'm starting to think it is different because it is worldwide.

German producer prices jump by record 25.9%

BERLIN (Reuters) - German producer prices maintained their record-breaking rise in February, increasing 25.9% year on year mainly because of energy pr...

whtc.com

I honestly believe we are going into a depression. Just wonder how long it can be propped up before the wheels fall off.

That’s why I’m buying what I want/need at any price. I want it on hand.

 

[E. Bryant]

I honestly believe we are going into a depression. Just wonder how long it can be propped up before the wheels fall off.

That’s why I’m buying what I want/need at any price. I want it on hand.

I felt the same way going into the 2008 downturn. But we pulled out of that one with ZIRP, QE, and gamed statistics. Only one of those will be available this time around.

 

[Bigfatcock]

I felt the same way going into the 2008 downturn. But we pulled out of that one with ZIRP, QE, and gamed statistics. Only one of those will be available this time around.

A lot of different variables in place this time around. I really hope I am wrong.

 

[Charger442]

im selling SOME guns to get some liquidity out of stuff i never shoot, is not particularly rare or increasing in value, but that people still have disposable income to make purchases like that. same thing goes for a BBQ pit and some fence materials, etc.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I honestly believe we are going into a depression. Just wonder how long it can be propped up before the wheels fall off.

That’s why I’m buying what I want/need at any price. I want it on hand.

Understood.... Pulled my mower out today and started my spring maintenance.. One rear tire has a sidewall leak and I'm just buying tubes. Still has tread so I'll get another summer out of the tires.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

“The market is giving you a wonderful opportunity to come out.”

El-Erian Says Cut Stock Holdings as Stagflation Concern Grows

(Bloomberg) -- Given Mohamed El-Erian’s prescience on inflation, investors may want to hear what he says about the stock market.Most Read from BloombergChina Jet’s Nosedive From 29,000 Feet Baffles Crash SpecialistsWhere Mornings Would Get Darker Under Permanent Daylight Savings TimeUkraine...

ca.finance.yahoo.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Worldwide

Indians cut down on necessities as Ukraine war inflates prices

Consumers in Asia’s third-largest economy are feeling the bite as companies pass on higher costs since the invasion.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Carl Icahn:
“There’s no accountability in Corporate America. You have some very fine companies, some very fine CEOs, but far too many that are not up to the task,” the longtime activist investor said.

Carl Icahn says there 'very well could be a recession or even worse'

The founder and chairman of Icahn Enterprises said surging inflation is a major threat to the economy.

www.cnbc.com

 

[vinniedelpino]

Carl Icahn:
“There’s no accountability in Corporate America. You have some very fine companies, some very fine CEOs, but far too many that are not up to the task,” the longtime activist investor said.

Carl Icahn says there 'very well could be a recession or even worse'

The founder and chairman of Icahn Enterprises said surging inflation is a major threat to the economy.

www.cnbc.com

I find this to be painfully true.

CEOs are like politicians. They're rarely the smartest, brightest or even hardest working of the bunch. They're often the best bullshit artists, golfers and brown nosers that do an exceptional job of schmoozing the board.

Look one or two levels below the CEO and that's where you'll find the brains of the operation.

 

[lariat]

I find this to be painfully true.

CEOs are like politicians. They're rarely the smartest, brightest or even hardest working of the bunch. They're often the best bullshit artists, golfers and brown nosers that do an exceptional job of schmoozing the board.

Look one or two levels below the CEO and that's where you'll find the brains of the operation.

This can definitely be true. But the leadership of a company sets the agenda and everyone else follows it. That means even the brains of a company can get throttled back due to poor leadership.

 

[Snuby642]

A lot of companies muddle through and put out a good product / service despite the efforts of corporate leaders to destroy it out of compleate incompetence.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Things are not adding up;

U.S. initial jobless claims fall 28,000 to 187,000 in latest week to lowest level since 1969​

 

[Charger442]

Things are not adding up;

U.S. initial jobless claims fall 28,000 to 187,000 in latest week to lowest level since 1969​

wait until the entirety of the petro dollar is replaced for global oil trade by the yuan.