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Stock Market

Covered half my oil short.

My DRIP and SCO are both up significantly since purchase. Will hold those until oil hits $100 and cover the rest of my crude short at $100 as well.
 
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Mortgage rates are currently at 6.25%-6.75%... and we aren't even close to stopping. Affordability is getting crushed, forcing more buyers into the smaller housing segments. Soon enough, all homes will start adjusting down to meet demand. Mortgage rates are likely to hit 8%+ by EOY.
Nice bump on EMPH........
Biden Waives Solar Import Tariffs for Two Years
 
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28424731_10214521068607873_7128660399502048925_o.jpg

From my grandfather's diary.
 
Time traveler looks as if written with a ball point pen.
Probably a fountain pen. I saved the diary from my father's things. A year's worth of entries, with entries about hitch hiking to town to try to find work, his 1st wife, his dog, weather, etc.
 
Market is pretty stable today 😂
Europe is up about 1%, Asia appears down a bit, Japan seems to be consolidating and figuring how to balance the import / export ratio. Oil people have not missed a lick (worldwide) and the Brent oil is going to get more expensive as Germany starts up their coal fired power plants....
Won't be long before Elon figures out he can make cars where the energy cost is lowest and just ship them worldwide... I'm sure the thought of him "Circling his wagon's" has crossed his mind..... Rest up today because the Deep State will cram 5 days of chaos into the last 4 days of the week.
 

Looks like we're getting a nice bounce this morning - take advantage of it.
 

Looks like we're getting a nice bounce this morning - take advantage of it.
Whatcha takin gains on?
 

Looks like we're getting a nice bounce this morning - take advantage of it.
The only advantage I see is being able to unload a looser before the next step down.
I'm not seeing any changes politically, inflation, supply chain, climate / weather, virus to warrant any changes. A dribble of propaganda saying this is the bottom and things are improving. Perhaps there is a plateau developing due to the sheeple accepting conditions as the new normal.

big.chart
 
I really doubt we are done. I am pessimistic at best of what the Fed says. I really think we need them disbanded. These "experts" have been calling it wrong my entire life.
The only advantage I see is being able to unload a looser before the next step down.
I'm not seeing any changes politically, inflation, supply chain, climate / weather, virus to warrant any changes. A dribble of propaganda saying this is the bottom and things are improving. Perhaps there is a plateau developing due to the sheeple accepting conditions as the new normal.

big.chart
 
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True, true. I think that one of the biggest risks to investors is that market signals have become mere noise compared to the far more powerful effect of Fed easing, so it has become difficult or impossible to determine the actual value of anything.

There will be much bitching about the Fed crashing the stock market, housing market, auto sales, employment, etc. over the next several months, but that's simply because people aren't accustomed to observing the weak signals produced by anything closer to a properly-functioning free market (and yes, I fully acknowledge that we're still far, far away from that ideal - but removing ZIRP gets us much closer).
I have been pondering what you said about the housing market. The mega investment funds (Blackrock, etc) have been buying up realestate, REIT's, etc. It appears that they are moving to corner the housing market. Reminds me of the Hunt Brother's back in the early 80's. In that case, big banks stepped in to rescue the brokerage firms. If the plan to corner the housing market fails, this will be too big of a risk for any / all of the banks to save...... Feds ended up taking over all those vacant properties in the late 80's and early 90's and formed the Resolution Trust Corp. Just some thoughts.

 
I have been pondering what you said about the housing market. The mega investment funds (Blackrock, etc) have been buying up realestate, REIT's, etc. It appears that they are moving to corner the housing market. Reminds me of the Hunt Brother's back in the early 80's. In that case, big banks stepped in to rescue the brokerage firms. If the plan to corner the housing market fails, this will be too big of a risk for any / all of the banks to save...... Feds ended up taking over all those vacant properties in the late 80's and early 90's and formed the Resolution Trust Corp. Just some thoughts.

I don’t know. This is why I am not using the housing market as an indicator.

I believe what the institutions are after is the rent in perpetuity.
 
Tesla Model Y & Model 3 have been named the “most American-made” vehicles in the US by Cars.com. This includes both EVs and ICE vehicles.

Model Y overtook Model 3 for 2022 to be #1.

GM is not even in the top 10.

Not surprised at this result. Tesla's level of vertical integration gives them a big advantage over the legacy automakers. The amount of offshoring of supplied components by the "domestic" manufacturers over the past two decades has gone largely unnoticed, especially by the patrons of those companies.


I see that the Silverado and Sierra come in at #93 and #94 (out of 95 total) on this list. Yikes.
 
Umicore down 14% after investor day; time to dive in. Might be a good time to restart this position.

Price is down due to market conditions. A good day to short Umicore.

The last line in the prospectus:
Assuming a gradual PGM price normalization scenario and stable average 2021 battery metal prices
What are PGM?
The PGMs are a family of six transitional metal elements that, structurally and chemically, are very similar. They are: platinum, palladium, rhodium, iridium, ruthenium and osmium. Aside from being the densest known materials, platinum group metals are also highly durable and offer long lifecycles.


 
Tesla Model Y & Model 3 have been named the “most American-made” vehicles in the US by Cars.com. This includes both EVs and ICE vehicles.

Model Y overtook Model 3 for 2022 to be #1.

GM is not even in the top 10.
 
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I don't think that Tesla will go bankrupt any time soon, so I agree that it's hyperbole. Musk is just doing that whole "anchoring" bullshit - set the bar really low (or high, depending upon which side of the table you're on) with an unreasonable number, and then you've basically established a new baseline for what's considered "reasonable" later.

In this case, I suspect he knows that the next few quarters won't be great - Austin and Berlin are taking longer than expected to ramp, Shanghai is going down for a while to improve throughput, etc. And we also don't yet know how Tesla's sales will hold up to a recession. It's not unusual for luxury cars to be the first to dip and also the first to recover, but it's not at all clear that Tesla will follow the same pattern.
 
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$1B is pretty small in today's world... I thought they were much larger.
Small enough to fly under most radar's until the Deep State wants to take away guns. A S&W in your safe is more valuable than money in the bank.

Shifting topics:
Appearing this plateau is forming... Interesting :unsure:
A good example is a chart showing ABNB
 
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Wahina, ammo, water, food, and soap will all skyrocket in value when moneys collapse around the world.
 
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I'm seeing and hearing a few somewhat minor comments about Dow Chemical. A member of the Dow 30 Group... Starting to sound like the US Government or other forces are trying to either put Dow out of business or force them to move their operation out of the United States.
big.chart

Dow stock sinks toward 17-month low after Credit Suisse recommends selling
Dow again recognized among the 50 most community-minded companies in the U.S.... ???
I'm in the chemical biz. Dow already has many offshore facilities, they are the largest chemical producer in the world. Dow is a monster (called Do it Our Way in my biz) I don't see them closing any US operations.
 
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