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Stock Market

Here is the $40K Lighting marked up $36K. I have said it before, the dealership model will be their downfall.

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Tesla reportedly at a run rate of 1M 4860 cells a month with forecast to be at 4M/month in 12 months. (Panasonic & LG to start supplying 4860 soon too)
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Looks like everything is down except VIX and 10-year bond rates, which now sit roughly at Oct/Nov 2018 levels. It may be instructive to look at stock index levels in that same period, as this could indicate where we are headed absent some sort of rationalization as to why earning expectations would be better today than roughly four years ago. (And if you can rationalize that position, please share your work with the class.)
 
THe EV sector is going start clearing house. Few will be left standing.

EV maker Electric Last Mile Solutions files for bankruptcy.

U.S. commercial EV maker Electric Last Mile Solutions Inc (ELMS) said on Sunday it is planning to file for Chapter 7 bankruptcy, after a review of its products & commercialization plans.
 
THe EV sector is going start clearing house. Few will be left standing.

EV maker Electric Last Mile Solutions files for bankruptcy.

U.S. commercial EV maker Electric Last Mile Solutions Inc (ELMS) said on Sunday it is planning to file for Chapter 7 bankruptcy, after a review of its products & commercialization plans.

With "digital strategy" presentations like this, they deserve to be out of business:


I'm not happy to see them fail, however; the product was good (Class 1-3 urban delivery is a great use case for electrified vehicles), and it would have been nice to see the old AM General Mishawaka plant returned to service.

Now, let's do Nikola.
 
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Hedging is dumb when you can get 20% interest rates on these crypto exchanges. It's free money bro, no risk, guaranteed returns. Just be like me and take out loans on gains to get more gains. Lambos every day.
 
Hedging is dumb when you can get 20% interest rates on these crypto exchanges. It's free money bro, no risk, guaranteed returns. Just be like me and take out loans on gains to get more gains. Lambos every day.
Lol. This has to be sarcasm.
 
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All my shorts doing very well. Covered my NCLH short after holding it since October.

Still short RCL.

Still short Target and other fake instagram high class stores.

Still short oil.

Might start to scale into shorting real estate.
 
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GM, Ford, Chrysler-parent Stellantis and Toyota North America on Monday urged Congress to lift a cap on the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit, citing higher costs to produce zero-emission vehicles, according to a letter seen by Reuters.

🥱
 
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GM, Ford, Chrysler-parent Stellantis and Toyota North America on Monday urged Congress to lift a cap on the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit, citing higher costs to produce zero-emission vehicles, according to a letter seen by Reuters.

🥱
Those ideas are incubated in environments of political panic.... Getting re-elected is still Priority # 1...... Even on days like this.
 
My Dad had a saying....... "A man can go broke taking advantage of good deals"............
The worst financial decisions are made on days like today.
Historically, buying at the top of the S&P has always paid off. I am not concerned... as I have said if we have issues long-term; the market is the least of my concern. I rather buy when others are panic selling and sell when others are FOMO.

The inflation we see today, drives the earnings of tomorrow.
 
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hmm, i took my pitiful savings out of the market last monday (the 6th).
perhaps this was a good decision?

got laid off and thinking about moving to someplace cheaper...
 
Historically, buying at the top of the S&P has always paid off. I am not concerned... as I have said if we have issues long-term; the market is the least of my concern. I rather buy when others are panic selling and sell when others are FOMO.

The inflation we see today, drives the earnings of tomorrow.
 
Added more to my oil short today. Hoping to short it up to the $150’s and and up with an average in the mid $130’s.

I believe europe and ukraine will capitulate by winter, and America will be broke AF by then too. I believe demand destruction will happen faster than expected.

Starting to scale into shorts on other commodities as well. America is a HUGE consumer, and with America’s demand down, I believe most commodities will follow the same path as lumber.
 
THe EV sector is going start clearing house. Few will be left standing.

EV maker Electric Last Mile Solutions files for bankruptcy.

U.S. commercial EV maker Electric Last Mile Solutions Inc (ELMS) said on Sunday it is planning to file for Chapter 7 bankruptcy, after a review of its products & commercialization plans.
Last Mile should have gone under a while ago. They never had a chance to scale and are a laughing stock in the EV space.

The whole transportation sector will be a shell of itself soon enough
 
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I went to cash back in December. It wasn't genius, it was fear and luck.
It was a little like that for me as well. It took a bit of nerve as well.

My view is that it doesn't take a genius to understand the ridiculously low probability of successfully restarting a global economy after a complete shutdown.

Especially when an utterly corrupt and brainless administration like Biden's is in charge.
 
Blackrock:
We’re not buying the stock dip because valuations haven’t really improved, there’s a risk of Fed overtightening, and margins challenge corporate earnings.

 
I know the stock markets and other markets keep plummeting... Do not panic my people, this only mean one thing... Here is another opportunity to save some more investment money, when the markets are back on another bull run, you'll have some money to catch the big ride. Cheers !
 
Blackrock:
We’re not buying the stock dip because valuations haven’t really improved, there’s a risk of Fed overtightening, and margins challenge corporate earnings.

Correct me if I am wrong but PE valuations have dropped as of a % more in QQQ today than the dot com burst.
 
Correct me if I am wrong but PE valuations have dropped as of a % more in QQQ today than the dot com burst.

If so, it's simply a reflection of how overvalued the market was at the Nov 2021 peak. Remember that the dot-com bubble was fueled by "normal" over-exuberance, and not several trillion of excess printing.

The base economy circa 2000 was actually pretty damn good:

- We had a surplus in federal spending (artificially inflated by Boomers making SS payments into the general fund, but still better than the trillion-dollar yearly deficits of the last 10+ years)

- Unemployment was low

- Productivity was high as the PC and Internet fully infiltrated office and manufacturing plants (added substantially by "lean" production principles such as TPS and quality systems like ISO9001)

- The outsourcing trend had only begun, so there was huge upside available in supply chain optimization

- Commodity prices were low

Looking back, it was an entirely different era.
 
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Blackrock:
We’re not buying the stock dip because valuations haven’t really improved, there’s a risk of Fed overtightening, and margins challenge corporate earnings.


So we're not yet at Warren Buffett's "blood in the streets" moment. If the Fed continues to tighten, then we'll eventually get to the point where certain individual stocks have been monkey-hammered into becoming must-buys because they will either hold up better in a recession than their peers (Wal-Mart feels like a good example), because they have low debt load and thus won't suffer from margin erosion due to debt service costs, or because their book value is so much higher than their market cap that they become an attractive target for acquisition and break-up/spin-off/wind-down.

If the Fed caves to political pressure and relents on the hikes, then it's an entirely different market that will ultimate value companies which will thrive in persistent inflation (probably not "hyperinflation" popular in dystopian fiction, but rather persistent 8-10% yearly inflation for the next half-decade). In this case, debt service costs potentially become negligible and pricing power is the entire game. It seems like that would favor certain commodity and energy stocks.

These are two entirely different scenarios.
 
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Strange times..... Things are not as they seem...

True, true. I think that one of the biggest risks to investors is that market signals have become mere noise compared to the far more powerful effect of Fed easing, so it has become difficult or impossible to determine the actual value of anything.

There will be much bitching about the Fed crashing the stock market, housing market, auto sales, employment, etc. over the next several months, but that's simply because people aren't accustomed to observing the weak signals produced by anything closer to a properly-functioning free market (and yes, I fully acknowledge that we're still far, far away from that ideal - but removing ZIRP gets us much closer).