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Ammo supply is not looking good

SG is hyping a panic buying scenario to their own benefit- sure there is an uptick in ammo sales, but not nearly as dramatic as they want us to believe.

But I don't own any guns, so I've got plenty of ammo.
 
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SG is hyping a panic buying scenario to their own benefit- sure there is an uptick in ammo sales, but not nearly as dramatic as they want us to believe.

But I don't own any guns, so I've got plenty of ammo.
Lake City announcing that they stopped the sale of 30% of the citizen's ammo production is what caused the uptick and panic buying.

SG most likely had forewarning of it.

We'll see how this shakes out.
But I'm not seeing it as the end of the world - or ammo.
 
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You boys remember when I was making Hitler videos about this shit? What was that? A decade ago? More?

You cunts like the OP, don't realize you are causing this panic buying bullshit....or then again....maybe you do.......
 
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I wish I had stock in ammo production instead of consumption.....
 
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It shouldn't be a question of immediate need. You have to be a strategic buyer.

Shotgun shells were pretty reasonable and widely available over the summer, and I stacked the cases deep. No worries about any dove, duck, turkey, and pheasant hunting seasons for the next few years, and an ample supply of shells for the leagues I'm in. I will keep buying three or four times as much as I shoot while they're available and not too much overpriced.

When they're scarce and overpriced, no thanks. That's for people who don't plan. Certainly not everyone is as serious a shooter as those here, but I never want to be in a position where I need ammo and can't get it.

I've been steadily buying bricks of primers off the shelf for only a couple of bucks more than yesteryear. Boxes of 500 SMKs have been on the shelf at much the same. When it's plentiful and not usuary prices stack it deep. AJ did have it right, and for years I've been a strategic buyer, so I really don't care if other people act stupidly and waste their money. I will always be a hunter, and I will always want to compete, so it's really not that difficult.

Was it 2020 when there were no turkey shells during turkey season? I just remember I was at a box store and the only box of turkey shells had an $85 sticker. I thought it was a mismark till I got to the register and found out that's what Cabellas actually wanted... I had a case of Winchester turkey magnums that I gave out to all my friends and saved their turkey seasons. Since then I keep two full cases in reserve not just for myself, but for all my non-strategic buying friends... Nothing fancy, just the basic stuff in abundance fits the bill when it's scarce.

Some things are already stupid, and if you aren't stocked up you should wait. When it's on the shelf and plentiful it's time to buy. Like everything in a capitalist system you have to watch the cycles. Maybe that's hard with stocks, but not with ammo.
 
So what will the sale to a Czech company do to the ammo brands CCI, Federal, HEVI-Shot, Remington and Speer do to our availability?
 
I believe he's mad at the folks that DON'T stockpile ammo when it's available, don't pay any attention until there's a scare, and then panic-buy, thus creating an instant shortage and massive inflation. That's what I got out of it anyway. Seems reasonable.

Ammo is technically always "available" in the sense it can be found somewhere, in some quantity, at some price.

I don't believe we have ever had a time, short of perhaps World War Two, where civilian ammunition was just generally unavailable in the United States because it wasn't being produced for sale.

I shoot about 4,000 rounds of 308 match grade per year, about half in formal structured training courses and the other half on my own in "goals based training" that I conduct myself (that is to say, I go out to the range, with specific goals/objectives in mind, and I train to meet those objectives). I buy a lot of several thousand 308 match grade, get the data, do the training, and when that lot has run out, I buy another batch from a lot, get the data, and continue training.

When it was $0.80 per round not too many years ago, that was great. When it was $1.00 per round that was fine. When it is $1.75 per round, that is annoying but I am still going to do the level of training I want to do. If it winds up being $3.00 per round I am probably still going to do the level of training I want to do.

Temporary surges in demand are not the reason for long-term categorical rises in ammunition prices/costs. Panic buying seldom applies to 308 match grade or 300 win mag [lately I have been unable to find 300 win mag FGMM 190 gr anywhere at any price, although 308 FGMM 175gr is available].

Most panic buying is going to be found in the 9mm pistol, 5.56mm NATO, 7.62x39mm, 12 gauge buckshot, and similar calibers/loads. The soccer mom who just bought her first gun [pistol] or the blue collar democrat who just bought an AR-15 because they are terrified of George Floyd "mostly peaceful protests" aren't buying 308 precision rifles and 2,000 rounds of 308 match grade. Few people are going to panic buy 300 win mag, 338 Lapua, 408 Chey Tac, 50 BMG, etc.

The simple fact is that labor costs have significantly increased due to multiple successive rounds of quantitative easing (printing money) as well as the increases in costs of raw materials.

The price increases in ammunition are not transitory short-term spikes due to sudden unexpected increases in demand, they are long-term inflationary increases as part of wider consumer price inflation due to the government's colossal expansion of the money supply.

This is largely the same reason why an acre of land that cost $3 in the 1910s, $20 in the 1930s, $100 in the 1960s, $150 in the 1980s, $250 in the 1990s, $700 in the 2000s, $1000 in the 2010s, now costs $2,000+ in the 2020s.

Look at the price of gold prior to the federal reserve act and compare the cost of an acre of land in pre-fed gold [one ounce of gold gets how many acres of Midwest farm land?] and then compare the price of an acre of midwest farm land to present day gold values. You'll find that a lot of land still goes for the same weight of gold, or close to it.

An ounce of gold still gets substantially the same quantity of goods as of 2023 that it would get it in 1913. In some instances, you get more because technology and improved assembly practices have helped keep production costs low, even in the face of rising labor costs and the costs associated with transportation of raw materials.



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Lake City announcing that they stopped the sale of 30% of the citizen's ammo production is what caused the uptick and panic buying.

SG most likely had forewarning of it.

We'll see how this shakes out.
But I'm not seeing it as the end of the world - or ammo.
Lake City does this like every time there is a hint of us going to any type of a skirmish, as best I can recall. The fact that SG virtually raised their prices 2-3x for some calibers overnight is enough to likely push me not to buy from them anymore as that’s ridiculous.
 
Lake City does this like every time there is a hint of us going to any type of a skirmish, as best I can recall. The fact that SG virtually raised their prices 2-3x for some calibers overnight is enough to likely push me not to buy from them anymore as that’s ridiculous.

It does seem 556/223 has gone up about 5cpr so not crazy like 2021. Stores have it available, not a bad time to purchase.

If ammo does dry up I would think it would be whatever calibers we are supplying overseas. I bought a few extra cases of various ammo before the election year hits. Should hold me over until the bs dies down and then we can do it all again in another 4 years.
 
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Ammo is technically always "available" in the sense it can be found somewhere, in some quantity, at some price.
I don't believe we have ever had a time, short of perhaps World War Two, where civilian ammunition was just generally unavailable in the United States because it wasn't being produced for sale.

Temporary surges in demand are not the reason for long-term categorical rises in ammunition prices/costs. Panic buying seldom applies to 308 match grade or 300 win mag [lately I have been unable to find 300 win mag FGMM 190 gr anywhere at any price, although 308 FGMM 175gr is available].

The two sentences in bold are in conflict with each other, at least regarding the specific ammo mentioned, and demonstrates the frustration I believe @Alphatreedog was expressing.

Few people are going to panic buy 300 win mag, 338 Lapua, 408 Chey Tac, 50 BMG, etc

True, but when the manufacturers are overwhelmed with demand for the popular, high-selling cartridges, they aren't going to be producing any of that other stuff. Berger, for example, has not produced their 338LM 300gr, or 300NM 230gr in nearly two years, and even their 300NM 215gr has disappeared in the past few months. If those are your go-to loads, you can't get them anywhere now, except maybe scalpers on GB.
The simple fact is that labor costs have significantly increased due to multiple successive rounds of quantitative easing (printing money) as well as the increases in costs of raw materials.

The price increases in ammunition are not transitory short-term spikes due to sudden unexpected increases in demand, they are long-term inflationary increases as part of wider consumer price inflation due to the government's colossal expansion of the money supply.

This is largely the same reason why an acre of land that cost $3 in the 1910s, $20 in the 1930s, $100 in the 1960s, $150 in the 1980s, $250 in the 1990s, $700 in the 2000s, $1000 in the 2010s, now costs $2,000+ in the 2020s.
I think most of us understand the simple economics of inflation without the lecture. Many of us run our own businesses and deal with it every day. That is not what was being referenced. The sentence in bold above is disconnected from reality, perhaps from not paying attention? For instance, Hornady 6.5CM 140ELD was running in the mid-$20s/box early 2020 pre-Covid. It then soared to nearly $70/box from the CHEAPEST sources for at least a year (maybe more, during the Covid-induced panic-buying) from regular retailers, IF you could find it. This past year it dropped right back down to high-$20s/box (but has recently (within the last month) crept up to low-$30s/box from the same sources due to "normal" inflation). To say that is "not transitory short-term spikes due to sudden unexpected increases in demand" is simply incorrect. At $70/box that was not inflation (nearly 300%) due to increased labor and material costs. It was overwhelming demand from panic-buying coupled with decreased supply due to Covid interfering with production, and it was definitely a "transitory short-term spike", depending on your definition of short-term. I'm not going to even get into the .22LR panic, where it became nearly worth its weight in gold for a few years, but now has dropped down to somewhat reasonable levels. And that was all pre-Covid, when production wasn't interfered with, and material costs were fairly stable. Finally, I don't know where you could have bought an acre of land in the 80s for $150, unless maybe it was on a Superfund site.
 
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If you sell items that are suddenly in demand, and you know the price from your supplier is going to skyrocket because said item is limited or maybe not going to be resupplied for months or years.....

Do you retain items at the original price and sell out immediately while every other retailer raises their pricing because they are in the same boat?

After you liquidate all of your stock immediately - how do you stay in business and continue to cover the overhead when you have no more product to sell? How long before you do have product to sell?

This is the pressure every retailer is under.
You keep your prices the same and sell out of your stock immediately.
Everybody else raises their price to try and keep paying their overhead while supplies are limited. That’s what’s required to keep the doors open.
 
When it was $0.80 per round not too many years ago, that was great. When it was $1.00 per round that was fine. When it is $1.75 per round, that is annoying but I am still going to do the level of training I want to do. If it winds up being $3.00 per round I am probably still going to do the level of training I want to do.
I shoot LR F class matches and it is almost $3.00 now a round if I use fresh brass. Sucks but I'm going to do what I love doing. I know people that spend a lot more to hit a little white ball to get a low score. :)
 
The two sentences in bold are in conflict with each other, at least regarding the specific ammo mentioned, and demonstrates the frustration I believe @Alphatreedog was expressing.



True, but when the manufacturers are overwhelmed with demand for the popular, high-selling cartridges, they aren't going to be producing any of that other stuff. Berger, for example, has not produced their 338LM 300gr, or 300NM 230gr in nearly two years, and even their 300NM 215gr has disappeared in the past few months. If those are your go-to loads, you can't get them anywhere now, except maybe scalpers on GB.

I think most of us understand the simple economics of inflation without the lecture. Many of us run our own businesses and deal with it every day. That is not what was being referenced. The sentence in bold above is disconnected from reality, perhaps from not paying attention? For instance, Hornady 6.5CM 140ELD was running in the mid-$20s/box early 2020 pre-Covid. It then soared to nearly $70/box from the CHEAPEST sources for at least a year (maybe more, during the Covid-induced panic-buying) from regular retailers, IF you could find it. This past year it dropped right back down to high-$20s/box (but has recently (within the last month) crept up to low-$30s/box from the same sources due to "normal" inflation). To say that is "not transitory short-term spikes due to sudden unexpected increases in demand" is simply incorrect. At $70/box that was not inflation (nearly 300%) due to increased labor and material costs. It was overwhelming demand from panic-buying coupled with decreased supply due to Covid interfering with production, and it was definitely a "transitory short-term spike", depending on your definition of short-term. I'm not going to even get into the .22LR panic, where it became nearly worth its weight in gold for a few years, but now has dropped down to somewhat reasonable levels. And that was all pre-Covid, when production wasn't interfered with, and material costs were fairly stable. Finally, I don't know where you could have bought an acre of land in the 80s for $150, unless maybe it was on a Superfund site.


I don't believe my two bolded sentences are in conflict with each other, except in regards to the fact that I cannot find the one particular load I am looking for, even in a market saturated with many other options. I can get 300 win mag from any manufacturer in any load, except the one precise manufacturer and load I want.

The unavailability of one particular caliber with one particular grain/load, does not equate to a "general unavailability of civilian ammunition."

World War Two was the only era where civilian ammunition, period, was simply unavailable, period.

My complaint about 300 win mag is not "all ammunition of all caliber is unavailable" or even "I cannot find one single round of 300 win mag in any load" but rather a very specific, "my preferred 190gr FGMM of 300 win mag, is unavailable." My statements are not contrary to each other.

World War Two was truly an era of "ammunition is basically not available for sale to civilians for the duration of the conflict." We haven't ever had that since, not even during Korea, Vietnam, and certainly not during Afghanistan or Iraq.


If I say "two years ago all apples were completely unavailable" and this year I say, "two years ago was the only time we were not able to get any ammo anywhere. This year I cannot get granny smith apples anywhere" it does not mean that all apples are again unavailable, there is no contradiction.


When the USA finally enters World War Three against Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, ammunition availability for civilians will probably fall to zero or near zero, at least from established manufacturers.
 
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I don't believe my two bolded sentences are in conflict with each other, except in regards to the fact that I cannot find the one particular load I am looking for, even in a market saturated with many other options. I can get 300 win mag from any manufacturer in any load, except the one precise manufacturer and load I want.

The unavailability of one particular caliber with one particular grain/load, does not equate to a "general unavailability of civilian ammunition."

World War Two was the only era where civilian ammunition, period, was simply unavailable, period.

My complaint about 300 win mag is not "all ammunition of all caliber is unavailable" or even "I cannot find one single round of 300 win mag in any load" but rather a very specific, "my preferred 190gr FGMM of 300 win mag, is unavailable." My statements are not contrary to each other.

World War Two was truly an era of "ammunition is basically not available for sale to civilians for the duration of the conflict." We haven't ever had that since, not even during Korea, Vietnam, and certainly not during Afghanistan or Iraq.


If I say "two years ago all apples were completely unavailable" and this year I say, "two years ago was the only time we were not able to get any ammo anywhere. This year I cannot get granny smith apples anywhere" it does not mean that all apples are again unavailable, there is no contradiction.


When the USA finally enters World War Three against Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, ammunition availability for civilians will probably fall to zero or near zero, at least from established manufacturers.
Mostly agree, but that isn't what we were talking about when you quoted my post the first time. We were talking (at least for my part) about temporary unavailability of certain (many)SKUs and extreme temporary price hikes; not total unavailability, and not price increases due to inflation that generally don't come back down much (which is what you seem to be addressing). The examples I gave in my last post are but a few of many that could be cited. When you said that price increases are due to inflation and not transitory short-term spikes due to unexpected increases in demand, my point is that inflation is certainly occurring, but SO DOES the other periodically, and they are far more drastic when they do, and they typically drop back down to near the previous level at some point.
 
Mostly agree, but that isn't what we were talking about when you quoted my post the first time. We were talking (at least for my part) about temporary unavailability of certain (many)SKUs and extreme temporary price hikes; not total unavailability, and not price increases due to inflation that generally don't come back down much (which is what you seem to be addressing). The examples I gave in my last post are but a few of many that could be cited. When you said that price increases are due to inflation and not transitory short-term spikes due to unexpected increases in demand, my point is that inflation is certainly occurring, but SO DOES the other periodically, and they are far more drastic when they do, and they typically drop back down to near the previous level at some point.


Some calibers are definitely being affected by long-term structural demand increase, but all calibers are being affected by general price inflation.

I consider 5.56mm NATO and 9mm Luger to be in the category of "long term structural demand increases due to millions of new gun-owners and shooters." There is also significant short-term demand spikes from these new shooters.

300 win mag, probably less that category and more the category of "general price inflation."


I believe 300 win mag, absent a major world war, will probably always be available, but the SKU I want, as you have pointed out, is temporarily unavailable and when available is only available at unfavorable prices.
 
At least MilSurp pricing for .50 BMG has remained consistent. LOL
I would expect that stuff to be in demand?
 
Let me see, several thousand processed brass in various calibers, shit load of primers and powder,thousands of bullets ready to load. Enough ammo to last me two lifetimes at my age. Retired so plenty of range time. What is this shit about running out of ammo.
 
Let me see, several thousand processed brass in various calibers, shit load of primers and powder,thousands of bullets ready to load. Enough ammo to last me two lifetimes at my age. Retired so plenty of range time. What is this shit about running out of ammo.
Must be nice. Some people on here are poors! Curious, how much is enough to last two lifetimes?
 
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I don't believe my two bolded sentences are in conflict with each other, except in regards to the fact that I cannot find the one particular load I am looking for, even in a market saturated with many other options. I can get 300 win mag from any manufacturer in any load, except the one precise manufacturer and load I want.

The unavailability of one particular caliber with one particular grain/load, does not equate to a "general unavailability of civilian ammunition."

World War Two was the only era where civilian ammunition, period, was simply unavailable, period.

My complaint about 300 win mag is not "all ammunition of all caliber is unavailable" or even "I cannot find one single round of 300 win mag in any load" but rather a very specific, "my preferred 190gr FGMM of 300 win mag, is unavailable." My statements are not contrary to each other.

World War Two was truly an era of "ammunition is basically not available for sale to civilians for the duration of the conflict." We haven't ever had that since, not even during Korea, Vietnam, and certainly not during Afghanistan or Iraq.


If I say "two years ago all apples were completely unavailable" and this year I say, "two years ago was the only time we were not able to get any ammo anywhere. This year I cannot get granny smith apples anywhere" it does not mean that all apples are again unavailable, there is no contradiction.


When the USA finally enters World War Three against Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, ammunition availability for civilians will probably fall to zero or near zero, at least from established manufacturers.

 
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Ukraine bucks paid for it as these guys refurbish and sell all the east block stuff to Ukraine.
,now a company in Czech Republic owns much of US ammo and component manufacturing.


vistacg23x1fix.jpg
 
and since this thread started, ammo prices have gone up just about everywhere

people are panic buying again :(
 
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Yes. That is not advisable.

However, you realize that LC is 30% of the current 5.56 supply, right?

And that is after we lost 40% of the previous, larger supply of cheap 5.56 from Russia.
 
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It wouldn't surprise me if a company was doing evil shit for increased profit but there's probably plenty of other reasons they would keep large amounts of inventory.

They probably changed production focus from pistol (9mm) to rifle (5.56 for obvious reasons) and the stockpiled 9mm is cushion in case demand spikes while running double shifts on rifle or if materials run out. It has to be chaotic as hell in that industry lately.

I really wonder how much one company could influence prices that way. I was going to get some lake city the other day but then the price and demand went up so PMC bronze it is!

Just my thoughts as a former production operator in other industries.
 
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It wouldn't surprise me if a company was doing evil shit for increased profit but there's probably plenty of other reasons they would keep large amounts of inventory.

They probably changed production focus from pistol (9mm) to rifle (5.56 for obvious reasons) and the stockpiled 9mm is cushion in case demand spikes while running double shifts on rifle or if materials run out. It has to be chaotic as hell in that industry lately.

I really wonder how much one company could influence prices that way. I was going to get some lake city the other day but then the price and demand went up so PMC bronze it is!

Just my thoughts as a former production operator in other industries.
Also very plausible.
 
I've seen so many false alarms in the last 30 years that I said the hell with it. When you have enough primers, powder and bullets to last 10 lifetimes and thousands of rounds of ammo for calibers you don't even shoot, what's the point. I've been trimming way back. The terrorists aren't coming here.

The terrorists will show themselves at some point, but it's not time yet.
 
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I've seen so many false alarms in the last 30 years that I said the hell with it. When you have enough primers, powder and bullets to last 10 lifetimes and thousands of rounds of ammo for calibers you don't even shoot, what's the point. I've been trimming way back. The terrorists aren't coming here.

The terrorists will show themselves at some point, but it's not time yet.

You quoted yourself and are changing your mind?
 
More panic... Along with some actual facts. He talks about the 22 ARC at the beginning but soon gets into the reasons for the price increases on ammo. I queued the video to start at 6:46 minutes...

 
It's a bunch of grandstanding. The SCOTUS has ruled that ammo is protected by the 2A because without it, the guns don't function. Whether foreign owned or not, US produced ammo is here to stay.