Re: Fill up today
<div class="ubbcode-block"><div class="ubbcode-header">Originally Posted By: Susan</div><div class="ubbcode-body">I work for an oil company as a geologist and was listening to some of the news this morning. Libya, Tunisia and Baharain don't even make up 2% of the worlds oil production, so why the market is being so reactive is beyond me. On the other hand 15% of the US gasoline, comes from the gulf of mexico, so if the prices at the pump go up...we have someone else to blame in addition to the market.
Susan </div></div>
Problem - it's a global market and futures are just that. The whole region is a powder keg. How would you like to prognosticate on a water way shutting down or a few pipelines being blown?
Numbers mean more when they are put into context.
Source:
British Petroleum Statistical Review 2010
Combined output of Libya, Tunisia and Baharain (+ Eygpt +
$5.00 / bbl Venezuelan Oil Sold to the Chinese, Subsidized by USA +
$37 Billion Saudi Pay Off is actually quite a bit more than 2%). Even though it is light, lets call it 3% just for an easy data point.
Total World Oil Production not including bio mass or coal derivatives - 79,948 x 1,000 / day bbls
Total US Gasoline (light distillate) consumption - 9,221 x 1,000 / day bbls
15% of total light distillate consumption = 1,383 x 1,000 / day bbls
3% of total world oil production - 2,398 x 1,000 / day bbls
Which means 3% of total world production is 26% of Total Annual US gas (light distillate) consumption and it is 12.84% of total US oil consumption.
Again - 3 points is light.
Now - run those dailies against the nominal price per bbl - it ain't pretty.
Another way to express this is - the market has (rightly) determined that 13% of Total US Oil Supply or 26% of Total US gas supply is at risk. Since the market is global, and demand is largely static that means price has to be elastic. They are buying contracts for future deliveries in an area of the world ripe for serious disruption to supply. The Kingdom / social strata / ruling class / disposition toward the West / linchpin status to the ME of Saudi Arabia is ripe to fall as well; if it does the impact to price will be more than what would be indicated by sheer production volume alone, as it is a better indicator of current risk. Risk is always a factor in price.
Also I changed this post so as not to be political however this fact and the corresponding influence on the market can not be ignored (and I will phrase it this way so as to minimize the politics of the statement) - where are the the most powerful leaders of the world on this matter? Without stability, real information about the true level of risk becomes difficult to obtain, which makes the market all the more imperfect and allows for more manipulation - translation higher prices. This is a failure of leadership.
Good luck
ETA a couple of other data points to think about and keep the conversation intellectually honest:
US Domestic Oil Production in 2009 (7,196 x 1,000 / day bbl) was 7% greater than in 2008. In fact, in 2000 domestic production was 7,733 x 1,000 / day bbls and by 2005 had fallen to a low of 6,895 x 1,000 / day bbls.
2009 Total US Domestic Consumption - 18,686 x 1,000 / day bbls, of that 49.4% of that was related to vehicle fuel. Think about that for a half a second - if we could just shift the fuel source for vehicles and make a slight tweek to some household and commercial applications we could be petroleum independent.
That said - ODOT in OR has a fancy new piece of software called GreenSTEP that is intended to model greenhouse gas emissions from all point sources (as with all models - crap inputs = crap outputs). IIRC the model states that vehicles account for 80% of GHEs and that if 20% of the vehicles were Nat Gas or Electric the problem would magically cure itself. No one from ODOT ever consulted with the Nat Gas folks or the Power folks to see if their backbones could support this. NG can - they just twist the valve and add pressure to the pipe. Power - not so much. In fact an increase of a mere 2% of electric cars pops the grid outside of Multnohmah county (and they aren't much above that threshold). Gonna need to add massive capacity to the system (rewire the state in layman's terms). Gee I wonder how we pay for that? No fear though, we are doing land use planning and economic development around the whole concept.