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Hear me out now- we've all heard about "Big Tobacco", have we ever considered the concept of "Big Ammo"?

LuckyDuck

Old Salt
Full Member
Minuteman
  • Nov 4, 2020
    3,114
    9,699
    Pennsylvania
    This is going to make me sound like I'm off my proverbial rocker and hitting the "devil's weed" and I assure you I have not been doing any of that noise (although maybe I should have been).

    I'll post it here first since I usually haunt SH more than other forums but here I go...

    I'm sure many of us are familiar with the term "big tobacco" and are old enough to remember when that term came into existence. For those younger- essentially there was a point a couple of decades ago when it was financially lucrative to sue Tobacco companies for health "ailments" (and guess what- the courts agreed with the plaintiffs). So eventually the major Tobacco companies figured out that after decades of competing against each other- when it came to this one particular situation it might be better for them to pool their money together to combat these legal charges.

    I'm not arguing that they were right or wrong either, just that they all figured out that they had a common interest in pooling there (otherwise insane) amounts of money together and fighting the lawsuits collectively. I'm sure I'll miss a few but Philip Morris (Marlboro), RJ Reynods (Camel), and plenty others pulled their resources together to fight, not only for their individual companies but for their industry (and arguably that was a successful business decision that I don't seem to recall ever being discussed much).

    So with that said- let's "fast forward to today" and change the party of discussion from tobacco companies producing cigarettes to ammunition companies producing (specifically handgun) ammunition. I'm not arguing that ammunition manufacturers are creating a product that gives their customers base cancer through scientific evaluation, what I'm questioning is whether they figured out (either directly or indirectly) that they'd all be better served focusing on one pistol caliber as the (end all be all) rather than competing against each other on a half dozen+ calibers.

    Think about it- You're ammunition company 'A' & I'm ammunition company 'B'. We're both competing in the same pistol caliber market, we're both fighting the same legal battles for making "cop killer" or "extra deadly" self defense bullets. We're also manufacturing competing products in 25 ACP, 32 ACP, 380 ACP, 9x19mm, 40 S&W, 357 SIG, 45 GAP, 45 ACP, 50 AE, etc etc. and doing so for decades- the 9mm/40 S&W/357 SIG/45 ACP dominates the market preferences and concerns AND you find a way to bridge the proverbial chasm between your two largest market segments- 9mm & 45 ACP and you now have a 9x19 that can meet the current performance standards of the best 45 ACP (never mind that nobody cared to invest in developing the 45 ACP further than it was capable of 20-40 years ago because, well frankly there wouldn't be a financial incentive in that approach).

    Well now you potentially have a "big ammo" situation where they frankly realize they're all being attacked by the same lawsuits and it's better business for them to "circle their wagons" and focus on less calibers (I'm sure that the 9mm being amongst the cheapest for them to produce is just a happy coinicedence) and then free their capital up that was previously spent developing other calibers towards their legal defense/company sustainment monetary requirements.

    I know I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed but I don't know if I've ever seen this particular angle discussed before so figured I'd share it/ at least the concept of it.

    -LD
     
    I'm the first one to raise that question am I not? Finally an original topic to discuss-

    And this has "it all". It contains conspiracy, the concept of 'big corporations' & collusion. And the story (an original one to boot) cuts the proverbial mustard too doesn't it?

    I can only surmise the ages from posters here but just 10 years ago the relevant handgun calibers were 9mm, 40 S&W, 357 SIG, & 45 ACP but... all of a sudden only 9x19 makes sense anymore because it's "just as good" as the rest.

    Sorry but homie & Luck Duck doesn't play that way- a rising tide lifts all boats, and I believe that if all other pistol calibers other than 9x19 stagnated, then it's likely by design and is not without merit mentioning that that this caliber was the absolute cheapest to manufacture for the stakeholders in the 'debate' for handgun calibers & their performance envelopes.

    -LD
     
    This is going to make me sound like I'm off my proverbial rocker and hitting the "devil's weed" and I assure you I have not been doing any of that noise (although maybe I should have been).

    I'll post it here first since I usually haunt SH more than other forums but here I go...

    I'm sure many of us are familiar with the term "big tobacco" and are old enough to remember when that term came into existence. For those younger- essentially there was a point a couple of decades ago when it was financially lucrative to sue Tobacco companies for health "ailments" (and guess what- the courts agreed with the plaintiffs). So eventually the major Tobacco companies figured out that after decades of competing against each other- when it came to this one particular situation it might be better for them to pool their money together to combat these legal charges.

    I'm not arguing that they were right or wrong either, just that they all figured out that they had a common interest in pooling there (otherwise insane) amounts of money together and fighting the lawsuits collectively. I'm sure I'll miss a few but Philip Morris (Marlboro), RJ Reynods (Camel), and plenty others pulled their resources together to fight, not only for their individual companies but for their industry (and arguably that was a successful business decision that I don't seem to recall ever being discussed much).

    So with that said- let's "fast forward to today" and change the party of discussion from tobacco companies producing cigarettes to ammunition companies producing (specifically handgun) ammunition. I'm not arguing that ammunition manufacturers are creating a product that gives their customers base cancer through scientific evaluation, what I'm questioning is whether they figured out (either directly or indirectly) that they'd all be better served focusing on one pistol caliber as the (end all be all) rather than competing against each other on a half dozen+ calibers.

    Think about it- You're ammunition company 'A' & I'm ammunition company 'B'. We're both competing in the same pistol caliber market, we're both fighting the same legal battles for making "cop killer" or "extra deadly" self defense bullets. We're also manufacturing competing products in 25 ACP, 32 ACP, 380 ACP, 9x19mm, 40 S&W, 357 SIG, 45 GAP, 45 ACP, 50 AE, etc etc. and doing so for decades- the 9mm/40 S&W/357 SIG/45 ACP dominates the market preferences and concerns AND you find a way to bridge the proverbial chasm between your two largest market segments- 9mm & 45 ACP and you now have a 9x19 that can meet the current performance standards of the best 45 ACP (never mind that nobody cared to invest in developing the 45 ACP further than it was capable of 20-40 years ago because, well frankly there wouldn't be a financial incentive in that approach).

    Well now you potentially have a "big ammo" situation where they frankly realize they're all being attacked by the same lawsuits and it's better business for them to "circle their wagons" and focus on less calibers (I'm sure that the 9mm being amongst the cheapest for them to produce is just a happy coinicedence) and then free their capital up that was previously spent developing other calibers towards their legal defense/company sustainment monetary requirements.

    I know I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed but I don't know if I've ever seen this particular angle discussed before so figured I'd share it/ at least the concept of it.

    -LD

    where are the legal battles though?


    i think there is some collusion. and as ive said before, Federal's business model doesnt make sense to me as there is really demand in the marketplace for a ton of calibers and loadings that is not being fulfilled. and Federal seems to be intentionally holding back on reloading components, because loaded ammo is a higher profit margin?

    i really think it boils down to we have hit a saturation point in the firearms industry, and the only way to keep any sales going is to constantly offer new, niche calibers that the gun manufacturers can support with factory chamberings. i think that's what drives it.


    i think there is going to be a massive slump in firearms demand and sales as we get towards peak market saturation. but maybe thats just my POV being off base.
     
    • Like
    Reactions: LuckyDuck
    where are the legal battles though?


    i think there is some collusion. and as ive said before, Federal's business model doesnt make sense to me as there is really demand in the marketplace for a ton of calibers and loadings that is not being fulfilled. and Federal seems to be intentionally holding back on reloading components, because loaded ammo is a higher profit margin?

    i really think it boils down to we have hit a saturation point in the firearms industry, and the only way to keep any sales going is to constantly offer new, niche calibers that the gun manufacturers can support with factory chamberings. i think that's what drives it.


    i think there is going to be a massive slump in firearms demand and sales as we get towards peak market saturation. but maybe thats just my POV being off base.
    To preface- again I'm likely 90% in agreement with everything you stated. However- to speak to the 'legal battles' element- the one topic (and yes I might be dating myself) that immediately comes to mind is the Winchester "Black Talons".

    I can't speak for anyone but myself but I really do remember the dateline/60 minutes or 20/20 news cast over the "cop killer" black talons. I'm really not that imaginative to make this up but during one of those shows they featured a surgeon that was borderline hysterical because the 'talons' would pierce their gloves while tryin to retrieve the bullets in surgery. They also defeated body armor worn by police (which is absolute nonsense) and gained national attention as 'armor piercing / cop killers' (not nonsense).

    A lot of that previous text is me explaining my opinion and is not directed towards @Charger442 by any means either.

    -LD
     
    • Like
    Reactions: Charger442
    there’s no grand ammo conspiracy, we get the left overs after mil/police and there will always be new cartridges introduced

    Why would I sell $7/box 9mm to you when I can jack the price up and sell it on .gov contracts?
     
    TL/DR

    There are definitely monopolistic behavior in numerous industries.

    Beef is certainly one where a small number of people collude to fix and inflate prices. But it doesn't matter because it will not be addressed by the people that can fix it.

    I genuinely believe that ammo is no different. There are lots of gentlemens agreements going on to keep prices and supply where they see fit. The money came in and consolidated a lot of stuff. They will not allow the profit margins to correct unless absolutely forced by the government or other outside force.
     
    Federal Government has decided to be very hands off on regulating anti-competitive behavior so we have gotten a lot of industry consolidation with the price increases that come with that kind of thing. Both parties are pretty deep in bed with big business so I am not sure this is going to change anytime soon.