Take 5 minutes and read this preview of what is to come.
The period from November 4th to December 14th sets the stage for a potential fight in the Congress on January 6th, 2021. In June 2020 the Transition Integrity Project (TIP) convened a bipartisan group of over 100 current and former senior government and campaign leaders and other experts in a series of 2020 election crisis scenario planning exercises.
• The concept of “election night,” is no longer accurate and indeed is dangerous.
• A determined campaign has opportunity to contest the election into January 2021....
there is a chance the president will attempt to convince legislatures and/or governors to take actions –
including illegal actions – to defy the popular vote. **
TIP recognizes and shares the view that the Electoral College is profoundly anti-democratic, and that numerous long-standing practices also function to create structural biases in our voting system. For present purposes, however, these constraints are treated as givens. • Focus on readiness in the states, providing political support for a complete and accurate count.
• Address the two biggest threats head on: lies about “voter fraud” and escalating violence. Voting fraud is virtually non-existent, but Trump lies about it to create a narrative designed to politically mobilize his base and to create the basis for contesting the results should he lose. T
he potential for violent conflict is high, particularly since Trump encourages his supporters to take up arms. • Anticipate a rocky administrative transition.
the ways in which the media will shape and drive public opinion, or how specific media outlets would cover events differently and drive increasingly partisan responses. Social media in particular will undoubtedly play a heavy role in how the public perceives the outcome of the election. Political operatives, both domestic and foreign, will very likely attempt to use social media to sow discord and even move people to violence.
Thinking about the upcoming Presidential election, the more important concept might be the “margin of contestation.”4 In other words, what combination of factors might lead a candidate to conclude that contesting the election is (or is not) in his interest? This is a dynamic and unpredictable calculation because the outcome is likely to be fought not only in court or by counting ballots,but possibly also in state legislatures, in Congress,
and on the streets.
winning “the narrative” emerged as a potentially decisive factor. Either side can expand or contract the “margin of contestation” if they succeed in substantially changing how key decision makers and the public view the “facts,” the risks of action or inaction, or external events such as civil unrest. An integrated strategy of legal contestation, political leadership, mass mobilization, and messaging is much stronger, and Team
Trump often had the advantage because they could rely on Fox News, a significant and committed base, and loyalties from law enforcement agencies. Team Biden often had the majority of the public on its side, and the ability to mobilize resentment about the structural disenfranchisement in the way we conduct presidential elections.
The conditions and mood of the country will also inform whether and how candidates assess the window of contestation. We could be facing an alarming
second wave of COVID-19, rising unemployment, a cratering stock market, growing evictions, civil unrest, and even political violence. 2. A close and contested
election may be resolved through the exercise of power, not through the courts....also encouraged chaos and violence in the streets and aimed to provoke
Biden’s strategic assets include Democratic governors and Secretaries of State in swing states (notably in North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin); a broadly shared sense in the Democratic Party that current voting systems, as well as the electoral college, are structurally anti-democratic; and a widespread and deeply-held desire, on the part of Democrats nationwide, to move on from the chaos of the Trump administration. During the exercises, Team Biden and Democratic elected officials took the following steps:
• Organizing 1,000 “influencers” to denounce efforts to steal the election.
• Organizing all living presidents to stand with Biden and denounce Trump administration efforts to subvert the democratic process.
• Recruiting moderate Republican Governors such as Baker (MA) and Hogan (MD) to form an “Election Protection” Coalition.
• Working with local Democratic elected officials to call on the Adjutant General of the National Guard, along with representatives from the technology sector, to monitor vote counting.
• Organizing a bipartisan “National Day for Restoration of Democracy” and a “National Day of Unity,” both including faith leaders.
• Attempting a capital strike and a work stoppage as part of an overall effort to push corporate leaders to insist that all ballots to be counted.
if former Vice President Biden wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College, there will be political pressure from the Democratic Party’s rank and file and from independent grassroots organizations to prevent a second Trump term.
4. A show of numbers in the streets-
and actions in the streets- may be decisive factors in determining what the public perceives as a just and legitimate outcome.
During several of the TIP exercises, Team Biden attempted to enter into negotiations with Team Trump about a pardon and graceful transition, but those overtures were consistently rejected. In multiple instances, Team Biden offered to talk about pardons. In one instance, Team Biden’s strategy – in anticipation of an ultimate loss – was to strengthen its hand in order to negotiate a package of structural reforms to the democratic system (including making DC and Puerto Rico states, abolishing the Electoral College, and requiring Supreme Court justices to retire at 70).
• Neither campaign was willing to accept the result, and called on their supporters to turn out in the streets to sway the result. The Trump Campaign team attempted to coerce or influence the individual electors. President Trump also invoked the Insurrection Act.
• The outcome of the scenario hinged on how the elected officials from the two parties addressed the separate slate of electors from Michigan. GOP officials asserted that as the President of the Senate, Vice President Pence could legally choose to accept or reject electors as he wished. There was no clear resolution of the conflict in the January 6 joint session of Congress; the partisans on both sides were still claiming victory, leading to the problem of two claims to Commander-in-Chief power (including access to the nuclear codes) at noon on January 20.
The Biden Campaign encouraged Western states, particularly California but also Oregon and Washington, and collectively known as “Cascadia,” to secede from the Union unless Congressional Republicans agreed to a set of structural reforms to fix our democratic system to ensure majority rule. With advice from President Obama, the Biden Campaign submitted a proposal to 1)Give statehood to Washington, DC and Puerto Rico; 2) Divide California into five states to more accurately represent its population in the Senate; 3) Require Supreme Court justices to retire at 70; and 4) Eliminate the Electoral College, to ensure that the candidate who wins to the popular vote becomes President.