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PortaJohn

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3 articles that express slowly.....then suddenly all at once


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This means that the Treasury will rely more on the shortest-dated securities to fund the gaping federal deficit at least until 2026, after Treasury Secretary Bessent said last month that yields on longer-dated Treasuries were too high to consider boosting sales of such debt.

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The total debt during the Debt Ceiling was $36.2 trillion. If the assumptions by the Treasury Department play out, the debt would increase by $1.6 trillion and end the year at $37.8 trillion.

The government has to borrow every dollar it uses to buy back Treasury securities. There is no money-creation involved. The Treasury borrows through issuance of new securities and uses a small portion of the proceeds to buy back small amounts of off-the-run securities.

This week’s buyback auction on Wednesday has a maximum purchase amount of $2 billion – compared to the $722 billion in securities that the Treasury Department sells this week.


Fed’s Rates Not Restrictive for Markets. Financial Conditions Ultra-Loose. Manias Form, Margin Debt Blows Out, Junk Bonds Party in La-La-Land

Exhibit B of loosey-goosey financial conditions: Junk bonds are completely in la-la-land. The spread between BB-rated junk bonds and Treasury securities has narrowed to 1.64 percentage points,

All of this clearly shows that the Fed’s policy interest rates are not restrictive – however Powell wants to phrase this. Financial conditions in the financial markets are amid the loosest ever. There is no tight liquidity anywhere. Markets are still awash in liquidity. Nothing is restrictive.
 
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But I have a question: where are the jobs?
Good question....

I know you're reader of Wolfstreet:

What all this means is that turnover in the labor market has calmed down from the epic red-hot churn in 2021 and 2022 when employers had trouble hanging on to their workers and had trouble hiring replacements, as workers quit massively to go for better jobs somewhere else, and when the whole labor market was reshuffled in a span of two years.

The last few years has been like musical chairs for both Jobs and Mortgages. Folks that took a seat (retained their job or mortgage) vs those who lost pace in the shakeout and are now in a bad spot b/c no one is looking to give up their chair. Boomers are up against it in the RE market thinking they can sell out at peak price (LOL!) - meanwhile top 30 MSAs have (housing for sale inventory) at @ near trough lows (currently 4.5 months of inventory / trough low in 2010ish was 6 months). Rates will remain elevated b/c what brought them down previously was trillions of dollars of Gov purchases of MBS - that ain't happening.
 
seems to me that a lot of the cause is "investment" buyers like Blackstone. IMHO that drives at least rent to extortion levels. rent $s keep young families from saving for purchase. material costs and labor costs adds to the pileup. builders need a profit. labor needs to make a living. the housing market has become a vicious circle.
 
Good question....

I know you're reader of Wolfstreet:

What all this means is that turnover in the labor market has calmed down from the epic red-hot churn in 2021 and 2022 when employers had trouble hanging on to their workers and had trouble hiring replacements, as workers quit massively to go for better jobs somewhere else, and when the whole labor market was reshuffled in a span of two years.

The last few years has been like musical chairs for both Jobs and Mortgages. Folks that took a seat (retained their job or mortgage) vs those who lost pace in the shakeout and are now in a bad spot b/c no one is looking to give up their chair. Boomers are up against it in the RE market thinking they can sell out at peak price (LOL!) - meanwhile top 30 MSAs have (housing for sale inventory) at @ near trough lows (currently 4.5 months of inventory / trough low in 2010ish was 6 months). Rates will remain elevated b/c what brought them down previously was trillions of dollars of Gov purchases of MBS - that ain't happening.
I had an engineer working for me that wanted constant $20K plus raises every year. Said he could get another job quick like a bunny. Always threatening to quit. Last eval he wanted to work from home and come to the office 2 days per month and be able to travel while working. Thats a hard no. So I gave him the opportunity to find another gig. It took 9 months, and he is highly qualified. If I take that and extend it to those who have NO experience but an education, what is their future in this economy? It's where we are in the economic cycle, and the non-governmental data is backing it up, plus inflation, across all generations. But no one wants to hear that.
 
I had an engineer working for me that wanted constant $20K plus raises every year. Said he could get another job quick like a bunny. Always threatening to quit. Last eval he wanted to work from home and come to the office 2 days per month and be able to travel while working. Thats a hard no. So I gave him the opportunity to find another gig. It took 9 months, and he is highly qualified. If I take that and extend it to those who have NO experience but an education, what is their future in this economy? It's where we are in the economic cycle, and the non-governmental data is backing it up, plus inflation, across all generations. But no one wants to hear that.

i cant hire engineers for anything. thats a specialty where demand is high and the supply of them is low. i needed IT and admin and getting 100s of applications. For engineering, we have to go force people out of their jobs. The last 4 years has ruined young engineers and the market for them. they think they can do nothing and get paid for it.

there is a reckoning coming.

one guy, came from a head hunter, flew him in from another state for a two night stay and interview, when i asked him what made him want to move to this city he said "well, i havent really thought about moving here much yet, this interview came up so i thought i would come down and see". i couldnt throw him out of the office fast enough. waste of time and money.
 
seems to me that a lot of the cause is "investment" buyers like Blackstone. IMHO that drives at least rent to extortion levels. rent $s keep young families from saving for purchase. material costs and labor costs adds to the pileup. builders need a profit. labor needs to make a living. the housing market has become a vicious circle.
Another way to consider it - the Gov (via policy) and the Banks pick winners and losers in our Econ.....We HAVE a managed Econ and Gov and Banking can collude to force social change.
 
The US can never catch up to China as far as Africa is concerned.
China is also finding out the hard way that Africa be…Africa. It ain’t as easy there as one would think.

There was a country a while back that said what the Obama administration needed to do was provide them with weapons. My thought at the time was that AKs are not that hard to produce. Perhaps make your own? But my time there quickly reminded me that this is not in the cards. It simply isn’t even a thought for them, and trying to do industry there is a fools errand. At least currently. Until the desire to stand up on their own feet is realized by both the leadership and populace failure is guaranteed. Otherwise it’s just another money trap. This is what the Chinese are betting on, until it gets too expensive.
 
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I had an engineer working for me that wanted constant $20K plus raises every year. Said he could get another job quick like a bunny. Always threatening to quit. Last eval he wanted to work from home and come to the office 2 days per month and be able to travel while working. Thats a hard no. So I gave him the opportunity to find another gig. It took 9 months, and he is highly qualified. If I take that and extend it to those who have NO experience but an education, what is their future in this economy? It's where we are in the economic cycle, and the non-governmental data is backing it up, plus inflation, across all generations. But no one wants to hear that.
Here’s a recent video. The dude’s a little bit irritating, but his videos are solid.

 
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