Powder IN-STOCK thread

Big Timber

Milk jug killer
Minuteman
Apr 26, 2019
83
80
You think you will ever buy it cheaper? I know we used to pay a lot less, but when or why would it ever go down. They sell out in minutes at this price. Unfortunately I feel this is the way. Just like gas prices.

I buy it cheaper everyday, and you could too if people quit paying stupid prices for supplies. The businesses are paying attention and will keep raising prices until the fools quit paying outlandish prices.

Stuff was pretty high during the Obama years, but 2017-2018 price moderated.
 

Tx_Aggie

Gig 'em
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Sep 3, 2017
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VA
Better get used to seeing prices and availability like this. Don't see it changing much anytime soon. Demand is going exceed supply by a considerable margin for years to come and don't be fooled thinking these companies aren't watching what's happening.

Things will always be worth what people are willing to pay for them.

Demand will continue to exceed supply, but not because we're still buying at panic levels.

This article is an interesting read on the subject:


It was posted earlier on the hide. It's written by someone completely outside the firearms industry, so with no ties to Vista or Olin.

TLDR: The industry is now consolidated enough that we're not likely to see ammo prices go back to normal without some sort of major shakeup.

With only two companies controlling nearly all domestic manufacturing, they can manipulate production to keep prices high (by restricting supply), and they've been open about that with investors. There's plenty of incentive for them to maintain the perception of a shortage to keep margins high, and basically none for them to go back to pre-pandemic levels of inventory surplus.

A few quotes from the CEO of Vista that paint the picture pretty well:

"Because of some of the consolidation we've done with Remington, even if you look long term, we don't see the same type of price compression the industry may have experienced in previous times."

"Now with ammunition being the largest part of our business. I mean, clearly, buying a Remington, we've created what we feel like is an even more disciplined industry now as we go forward. We've got, I think, like competitors in the sense that they watch growth, they watch their margin profiles. And we feel like we've got a disciplined industry."

And I've mentioned previously that we studied, as best we can…industry capacity and making sure that we're not only managing our capacity, but very mindful of what's being brought into the industry, so we don't get over our skis, if you will."

By getting over their skis, he's talking about ending up in a situation where production is too high and is negatively impacting their margins by causing prices to drop. Meaning enough of a surplus that ammo is sitting on the shelves. If you can charge 100% more for something, you only have to make half as much of it. And if that creates a perception of shortage, even better because it increases turnover.

We've spend 2 years teaching the industry that we are willing to pay as much as 200-300% more that we were a few years ago for ammo and reloading components. We shouldn't expect them to forget that.
 

Choid

Anti Bodyfat Activist
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Feb 13, 2017
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Short term pricing curves and long term pricing curves are rarely the same. Doesn't matter what you "feel" it is going to be like in the future. The future will depend on how demand and supply change based on a great number of inputs. Any guesses about future prices are just guesses. So buy powder if you want, and don't if you don't. End of story.
 

Choid

Anti Bodyfat Activist
Full Member
Minuteman
Feb 13, 2017
5,084
3,345
Demand will continue to exceed supply, but not because we're still buying at panic levels.

This article is an interesting read on the subject:


It was posted earlier on the hide. It's written by someone completely outside the firearms industry, so with no ties to Vista or Olin.

TLDR: The industry is now consolidated enough that we're not likely to see ammo prices go back to normal without some sort of major shakeup.

With only two companies controlling nearly all domestic manufacturing, they can manipulate production to keep prices high (by restricting supply), and they've been open about that with investors. There's plenty of incentive for them to maintain the perception of a shortage to keep margins high, and basically none for them to go back to pre-pandemic levels of inventory surplus.

A few quotes from the CEO of Vista that paint the picture pretty well:

"Because of some of the consolidation we've done with Remington, even if you look long term, we don't see the same type of price compression the industry may have experienced in previous times."

"Now with ammunition being the largest part of our business. I mean, clearly, buying a Remington, we've created what we feel like is an even more disciplined industry now as we go forward. We've got, I think, like competitors in the sense that they watch growth, they watch their margin profiles. And we feel like we've got a disciplined industry."

And I've mentioned previously that we studied, as best we can…industry capacity and making sure that we're not only managing our capacity, but very mindful of what's being brought into the industry, so we don't get over our skis, if you will."

By getting over their skis, he's talking about ending up in a situation where production is too high and is negatively impacting their margins by causing prices to drop. Meaning enough of a surplus that ammo is sitting on the shelves. If you can charge 100% more for something, you only have to make half as much of it. And if that creates a perception of shortage, even better because it increases turnover.

We've spend 2 years teaching the industry that we are willing to pay as much as 200-300% more that we were a few years ago for ammo and reloading components. We shouldn't expect them to forget that.
FWIW, Stoller is a BIG believer in monopoly power. While monopolies 1) can happen, and 2) can be disciplined, it is the exception, rather than the rule for them to be so. Also, you don't want to conflate multiple issues. One is ammuntition, which is somewhat consolidated, and the other is ammunition components, which is not only unconsolidated, but also generally nothing but a marketing business.

Take Alliant, for example, because they are part of Vista. They make little, or none, of their own powder, so the assumption that they can both be disciplined enough to forsake marginal profit for higher revenue, and also keep those distribution channels closed, is almost unfathomable. Same with Hodgdon etc. Could they collude to do so? Maybe, but any distribution business has exceedingly low barriers to entry, unlike ammunition manufacturing.

To date, the ammunitions manufacturers have displayed a relatively straight up and down supply curve. They are not able to increase production much to meet demand, and they have never shown the discipline to shut down production in glut times. I am not privy to the internal economics of the business, but from the outside, it would seem that, again to date, they have found that adding capacity doesn't make sense, but running at less than maximum capacity doesn't either. I can read what their CEO said, but I put more faith in what they have been able to accomplish in the past. It is more consolidated now, so who knows, but as long as marginal revenue is higher than marginal cost, it is hard to imagine they are going to shut things down, and if they do, it is hard to imagine that somebody else won't step up.

TL;DR version. Be careful in believing CEOs who tell you they are going to do something they have failed at many times before, and take professors of monopoly economics with a grain of salt when they tell you that an industry is about to engage in monopolistic behavior. Like everybody else, they are often men with hammers seeing nails everywhere.
 

sig2009

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Feb 24, 2017
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Better get used to seeing prices and availability like this. Don't see it changing much anytime soon. Demand is going exceed supply by a considerable margin for years to come and don't be fooled thinking these companies aren't watching what's happening.

Things will always be worth what people are willing to pay for them.
HAHA. Years to come. You crack me up.
 
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Buzzinga

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    nick338

    Commander- of what I have no idea
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    I buy it cheaper everyday, and you could too if people quit paying stupid prices for supplies. The businesses are paying attention and will keep raising prices until the fools quit paying outlandish prices.

    Stuff was pretty high during the Obama years, but 2017-2018 price moderated.
    Please tell me where so I can stop being stupid.

    Prices and availability during the Obama years was not at the same level we are seeing now.

    Do you guys stop putting gas in your cars or do you pay the prices at the pumps? Do you stop paying the grocery stores or are you still feeding your families?

    I work in an industry every day that people pay what they have to out of need, not because they have nothing better to spend their money on.

    Sometimes it's not a choice, or maybe it is and we can all just raise are fists up and say we aren't going to shoot until you guys drop your prices. Good luck with that.

    Supply is not just limited to demand. The Obama years did not have a major pandemic impacting every facet of life like what we are experiencing now. There's a generation of people now that feel like they don't have to work, especially after getting paid to not do so. And the quality of a lot of the workforce is garbage, I see it every day. This causes a strain on companies just to keep their doors open as it has a trickle affect from the bottom up for getting supplies, components, fuel and having to pay people more than they are worth because you can't find help. Not to mention insurances going up and mandates to pay people extra sick time that are out with COVID.

    Anyone have a kid in college? Please tell me how easy it would be for people to just stop sending their children to college so these institutions stop ass raping everyone. Never going to happen and tuition will just keep increasing because people will continue paying it.

    Just did a market analysis to raise our labor rate up $20.00 an hour because everyone else in the area is doing it. It's never going to go in the opposite direction, I promise.

    I could go on and on about how life as we used to know it is gone. Bottom line is we are going in exactly the direction the people that drive their cars wearing their masks want us to go in.
     
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    rustyinbend

    GySgt USMC 1976-1992
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    Dec 9, 2018
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    Please tell me where so I can stop being stupid.

    Prices and availability during the Obama years was not at the same level we are seeing now.

    Do you guys stop putting gas in your cars or do you pay the prices at the pumps? Do you stop paying the grocery stores or are you still feeding your families?

    I work in an industry every day that people pay what they have to out of need, not because they have nothing better to spend their money on.

    Sometimes it's not a choice, or maybe it is and we can all just raise are fists up and say we aren't going to shoot until you guys drop your prices. Good luck with that.

    Supply is not just limited to demand. The Obama years did not have a major pandemic impacting every facet of life like what we are experiencing now. There's a generation of people now that feel like they don't have to work, especially after getting paid to not do so. And the quality of a lot of the workforce is garbage, I see it every day. This causes a strain on companies just to keep their doors open as it has a trickle affect from the bottom up for getting supplies, components, fuel and having to pay people more than they are worth because you can't find help. Not to mention insurances going up and mandates to pay people extra sick time that are out with COVID.

    Anyone have a kid in college? Please tell me how easy it would be for people to just stop sending their children to college so these institutions stop ass raping everyone. Never going to happen and tuition will just keep increasing because people will continue paying it.

    Just did a market analysis to raise our labor rate up $20.00 an hour because everyone else in the area is doing it. It's never going to go in the opposite direction, I promise.

    I could go on and on about how life as we used to know it is gone. Bottom line is we are going in exactly the direction the people that drive their car wearing their mask want us to go in.
    True dat ... it's rich to hear people say "Stop buying and prices will go down" ... without an alternative other than simply "Leave the guns in the safe". At some point, this will all equalize and prices will meet availability. But not today, and probably not tomorrow. So until then, I pay a premium for what I can't do without, and use my stock on-hand for the activities that I consider to be my priorities. Did I pay more than I wanted to? "Yes" ... but that answer is valid for about 187 other things right now, not just reloading supplies. Life goes on ... Pay or don't shoot ... and always remember: "THERE'S NO CRYING IN RELOADING".

    5881cc03db25d73d35bca71ea18ee790.jpeg
     

    NamibHunter

    Desert hunter
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    Dec 26, 2018
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    IMR 4320 and 7828 8 pounders at Powder valley.
    Both Powders are sold out now.

    CCI 400 Primers: “Come back in 15 minutes, pending orders”. No luck.

    At least these components are now ‘back on the market’, for short periods of time.
     
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    NamibHunter

    Desert hunter
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    Dec 26, 2018
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    US869 is still in stock, magnum powder for 7 STW, 300 Ultramag, 30-378 Weatherby, 338LM, and 50BMG. It is a spherical powder.


    “Description: This spherical powder is superb with heavy bullets in big, over-bore, magnum rifle cartridges. Because it is very dense, it allows the shooter to use enough powder to create
    true magnum loads. US869 is also used in the 50 caliber BMG, where it yields high velocity
    and great accuracy with 750 and 800 grain projectiles. A truly great 1000-yard competition
    propellant.”
     
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    Abbotm2

    Sergeant of the Hide
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  • Nov 3, 2019
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    North Cackalacky

    2aBaCa

    Humans are amusing
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    Jan 27, 2019
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    6.5 PRC brass

    They must be smoking the good stuff

    Yeah seriously starting to consider turning my 6.5PRC build into a whats the cheapest thing to reload for build.
     

    Hedgehunter

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    Jan 10, 2021
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    NamibHunter

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    BL-C(2) is in stock at Midway, have used it successfully for 308 and 30-06 loads with long bullets that intrude deep into the case. High load density. Listed in the Barnes load manual/web site for their 180 TTSX.


    Worked well for me.
     

    sig2009

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    Feb 24, 2017
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    BL-C(2) is in stock at Midway, have used it successfully for 308 and 30-06 loads with long bullets that intrude deep into the case. High load density. Listed in the Barnes load manual/web site for their 180 TTSX.


    Worked well for me.
    IMR 4064 works better for me in .308.
     

    x2cross

    Joe Dirtè
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  • Nov 13, 2020
    360
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    Ramshot TAC 8lbers. Finally got one!
    Product Total​
    $216.99​
    Shipping Total​
    $15.70​
    HazMat Charge​
    $15.99​
    Tax​
    $16.79​
    Total​
    $265.47​
     
    Last edited:

    Aggie1819

    Sergeant of the Hide
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    Minuteman
    Oct 19, 2019
    112
    59
    Ramshot TAC 8lbers. Finally got one!
    Product Total​
    $216.99​
    Shipping Total​
    $15.70​
    HazMat Charge​
    $15.99​
    Tax​
    $16.79​
    Total​
    $265.47​
    What caliber are you using Ramshot on?
     
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    Wizard1183

    Sergeant of the Hide
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    Jul 14, 2018
    127
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    Pretty much all prices on components stayed true BUT. Primers. They doubled and tripled the price of those. Why? That’s the bottleneck of ammo. You can have 500lbs of powder and 100k bullets, but without a primer you got nuffin lol