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Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

Emerson0311 said:
And their impact on client’s spending decisions are huge. $10/hr more buys a lot of experience.
Click to expand...

One thing that amuses me about the company I'm with now is that it's an esop company and how much they talk it up. They always make a point about how much the higher up people that make considerably more and have been there 30 years have in their retirement. Funny part is, as of a couple years ago, they employed about 1500 people and only 150 were vested. That's a huge red flag to me for a few reasons...


I'm not saying esop is a bad thing but when they announce how much money the company made for the year, people realize how much profit there is. That's when people start questioning why they are making shit wages.
 
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America is feeling the "ripple effect".
"Countries around the world are facing rising costs, driven by Putin's illegal war in Ukraine, and we know this is affecting people here in the UK," he said.
"That is why we have taken decisive actions to hold down bills this winter through the Energy Price Guarantee and provided at least £1,200 of additional cost-of-living support to eight million of the most vulnerable households."
www.bbc.com

People delay turning heating on as UK inflation soars

Cost of living increases by 10.1% in year to September as BBC survey suggests concern is rising.
www.bbc.com
 
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"When the American economy gets a cold the rest of the world gets pneumonia."

We are driving this world recession/depression by cutting off American energy, period. When the President cancels pipelines, refineries, and cuts off access to Federal lands it hurts our economy and when combined with massive spending creates inflation, but when Blackrock and giant investment and pension funds cut off the American energy sector from investment because of their woke, religious reasons it is fucking fatal. It isn't JUST Biden's horrible policies of strangling our economy and American business, it's also Wall Street's wokeness and "Social Investing" that is tanking our economy and the world economy.

The most important thing we could do would be to hold those who did this to account when we get through it. Oddly enough (not), Jamie Diamon of The Goldman Sachs is going the other way. Guess which stock you should buy... Go woke and go broke is about to get supersized, and all the government employees who's pensions are with Blackrock are going to get completely fucked. I would rather die than see all you fucking morons get bailed out with my tax dollars. You absolutely deserve this, because you know exactly what they are doing to us all and you do nothing about it when it's your fucking money!!!! Fuck you in your dead eye socket!
 
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It's everything coming home to roost at once. Energy policy? Yep. Stupidly low interest rates causing misallocation of capital into nonproductive assets? Yep. Excessive supply chain fragility driven by an obsession with marginal efficiency gains? Sure thing. Decades of unwise outsourcing? Certainly. Gross neglect of the workforce in favor of directing cash flows to ownership and investors? More than a bit of that. Unsustainable fed.gov debt caused by 20 years of unrestrained spending on forever wars and feel-good social programs? It's a factor.

Truing any subset of these problems won't fix the problem. Everything needs to be addressed simultaneously - hence the opportunity for leftists to execute The Great Reset. The only real counterstrike is the Austrian school, but since the right has been up Keynes' butthole for decades, they can't even comprehend making this shift.
 
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Fig said:
The next administration is going to have to have straight up austerity for as long as politically tenable.
Click to expand...

Agreed, but this is politically unacceptable for both parties, and so it won't happen until forced by external events (like a currency collapse). We crossed this Rubicon long ago.
 
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The plan is working:
Sharply higher mortgage rates are causing an abrupt slowdown in the housing market. The average rate on the 30-year fixed home loan is now just over 7%, after starting this year around 3%. That is making an already pricey housing market even less affordable.
www.cnbc.com

Existing home sales fall to a 10-year low in September, as mortgage rates soar

Sales of previously owned homes fell 1.5% in September from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.71 million units.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
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The housing bubble of 08 put me out of the swimming pool business, went back to school, nuclear tech. Got divorced and moved further from Plant Farley, I'm not willing to travel 2hrs each way. I've been doing industrial maintenance for 8 years with current co. They treat production employees like shit, place is a rotating door of temps, many underaged immigrants. I'm close to topping out and feel like they are nudging all us older white guys to leave. Usual MO is they put them on night shift and they quit, I've been on nights for 6 years, to include every weekend for the last 2, I'm so lucky, I get to do every Monday morning start up!
I'm being interviewed next Tuesday by a company that will appreciate & pay me for my knowledge, wish me luck!
 
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BAMAboy18 said:
The housing bubble of 08 put me out of the swimming pool business, went back to school, nuclear tech. Got divorced and moved further from Plant Farley, I'm not willing to travel 2hrs each way. I've been doing industrial maintenance for 8 years with current co. They treat production employees like shit, place is a rotating door of temps, many underaged immigrants. I'm close to topping out and feel like they are nudging all us older white guys to leave. Usual MO is they put them on night shift and they quit, I've been on nights for 6 years, to include every weekend for the last 2, I'm so lucky, I get to do every Monday morning start up!
I'm being interviewed next Tuesday by a company that will appreciate & pay me for my knowledge, wish me luck!
Click to expand...
Good luck!
 
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Hobo Hilton said:
After reading this I get the feeling that inflation will continue through 2023.
www.cnbc.com

Elon Musk says a global recession could last until the spring of 2024

Tesla founder Elon Musk thinks the global economic contraction can last for another year and a half.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
Click to expand...
Yeah, I accepted the fact Elon is way smarter than I. I like him, so far he seems very genuine in his quest to better mankind. But I'll never own an EV, other than my golf cart, even he recognizes that they are not for everyone.
 
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BAMAboy18 said:
Yeah, I accepted the fact Elon is way smarter than I. I like him, so far he seems very genuine in his quest to better mankind. But I'll never own an EV, other than my golf cart, even he recognizes that they are not for everyone.
Click to expand...
I'd buy a Hybrid in a second.
Audi Q8 diesel hybrid, over 120 mpg. yup, in a big vehicle. USA doesn't want them here, probably because they are too damn efficient.
Audi and VW also has some 93 mpg diesel 'cars' - smaller cars.. but at 93mpg.. go boy!
 
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lariat said:
Who didnt see this coming for those who refuse to return to work?

MSN

www.msn.com
Click to expand...
lariat said:
Who didnt see this coming for those who refuse to return to work?

MSN

www.msn.com
Click to expand...
WFH was never supposed to be a permanent fix.... Only a Band-aid to get through the, so called, pandemic. Pealing the Band-aid off is always painful.... Especially if it is left on way too long. Historically, seems like more people relocate during a recession than during the boom times...
Link shows the moves during 2021.... We may see a reversal during 2023.
JMHO

Here Are the States Americans Don’t Want to Live In Anymore (2022) – Zippia

www.zippia.com www.zippia.com
 
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Interesting cycle... People save for years to buy a house. Just when they are about there, the market moves away from them. So, what do they do ? They take that saved up nest egg and spend it on a new car, boat or other toy. 6 months pass and the bottom falls out of the housing market. Next they attempt to sell off that car, boat or toy to get enough cash to put a down payment on a house that becomes "affordable"..... LOL

www.cnbc.com

Mortgage demand from homebuyers is now nearly half what it was a year ago

Sharply higher mortgage rates caused mortgage demand to drop to the lowest level since 1997.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
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Hobo Hilton said:
Interesting cycle... People save for years to buy a house. Just when they are about there, the market moves away from them. So, what do they do ? They take that saved up nest egg and spend it on a new car, boat or other toy. 6 months pass and the bottom falls out of the housing market. Next they attempt to sell off that car, boat or toy to get enough cash to put a down payment on a house that becomes "affordable"..... LOL

www.cnbc.com

Mortgage demand from homebuyers is now nearly half what it was a year ago

Sharply higher mortgage rates caused mortgage demand to drop to the lowest level since 1997.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
Click to expand...
If one cannot see the layoffs coming, especially in trades that deal with home building they are blind or in denial.
 
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With the high stakes in mind, both markets and lawmakers will be listening closely to Powell’s post-meeting news conference next Wednesday, which will come six days before the election.
www.cnbc.com

Powell again is facing political pressure as worries mount over the economy

No stranger to political pressure, the Fed chief this week found himself the focus of concern in a letter from Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
GDP is up due to posting inflation related numbers.

“Overall, while the 2.6% rebound in the third quarter more than reversed the decline in the first half of the year, we don’t expect this strength to be sustained,” wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics. “Exports will soon fade and domestic demand is getting crushed under the weight of higher interest rates. We expect the economy to enter a mild recession in the first half of next year.”

www.cnbc.com

U.S. GDP accelerated at 2.6% pace in Q3, better than expected as growth turns positive

Gross domestic product was expected to grow at a 2.3% annualized pace in the third quarter, according to Dow Jones.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
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Signs of an impending U.S. recession keep piling up, and now another widely followed bond-market measure is starting to flash its own warning.
It’s the spread between yields on the 3-month Treasury bill TMUBMUSD03M, 4.031% and the 10-year note TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.938%, which started going negative on Tuesday and drifted in and out of inversion as of Thursday morning. It finished Wednesday’s U.S. trading session below zero for the first time since March 2, 2020, at the onset of the U.S. Covid-19 pandemic, according to Tradeweb.
www.marketwatch.com

Recession ahead? This bond-market indicator is flashing a 'code orange' warning.

Another key measure of the yield curve is inverting, sending a recession warning.
www.marketwatch.com www.marketwatch.com
 
I don't like the way that the Y-axis label ranges are established on this chart (that's some USA Today-level bullshit), but it does drive home a point about the strength of the American consumer:

FgRHFP6XwAAdNZP.jpeg


Just wait until these people are tapped-out and begin to capitulate. I think the major question is "when?" - before the Christmas shopping season, or after.

Keep some cash handy for the bargain shopping opportunities.
 
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E. Bryant said:
I don't like the way that the Y-axis label ranges are established on this chart (that's some USA Today-level bullshit), but it does drive home a point about the strength of the American consumer:

View attachment 7987038

Just wait until these people are tapped-out and begin to capitulate. I think the major question is "when?" - before the Christmas shopping season, or after.

Keep some cash handy for the bargain shopping opportunities.
Click to expand...
The indentured servitude people are putting themselves under outside of inflationary pressures is staggering. IMO it speaks to a very real addiction to a materialistic lifestyle that is never satisfied. The emotional crises that will be coming about is going to be huge. All because of an inability to be satisfied with life in the most prosperous country in the world.
 
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lariat said:
The indentured servitude people are putting themselves under outside of inflationary pressures is staggering. IMO it speaks to a very real addiction to a materialistic lifestyle that is never satisfied. The emotional crises that will be coming about is going to be huge. All because of an inability to be satisfied with life in the most prosperous country in the world.
Click to expand...

Holy shit - did you just sit in on the same Sunday morning sermon that I did?

I'd be lying if I claimed to be immune to such pressure; I'm simply fortunate enough that I'm valuable enough to make decent money and disciplined enough to keep my expenditures less than my income. That puts me in the top few percent of middle-class consumers, but the big guy upstairs is probably not happy with the number of guns in my safe and cars in the garage. I mean, just look at my posts in this thread where I'm stating my intention to purchase "distressed assets", when I should instead be thankful that I'll hopefully be in a position to give freely at a time when others cannot.

Fortunately for my community, my wife is much better at this than I am.

Thanks for the dose of reality this morning (y)
 
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E. Bryant said:
Holy shit - did you just sit in on the same Sunday morning sermon that I did?

I'd be lying if I claimed to be immune to such pressure; I'm simply fortunate enough that I'm valuable enough to make decent money and disciplined enough to keep my expenditures less than my income. That puts me in the top few percent of middle-class consumers, but the big guy upstairs is probably not happy with the number of guns in my safe and cars in the garage. I mean, just look at my posts in this thread where I'm stating my intention to purchase "distressed assets", when I should instead be thankful that I'll hopefully be in a position to give freely at a time when others cannot.

Fortunately for my community, my wife is much better at this than I am.

Thanks for the dose of reality this morning (y)
Click to expand...
Well, the topic was on my mind, so I was probably armed for bear when your post popped up. Right after that I went and taught my Sunday School class out of Isaiah and we discussed the weakness and puffed up pride that materialism can cause when prosperity is only used to serve one’s desires. Not the funnest study but one that lands square into our society today. Seems like the hardest thing to be these days is happy and grateful. Those that can do that tend to escape a lot of traps in this world.
 
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E. Bryant said:
I don't like the way that the Y-axis label ranges are established on this chart (that's some USA Today-level bullshit), but it does drive home a point about the strength of the American consumer:

View attachment 7987038

Just wait until these people are tapped-out and begin to capitulate. I think the major question is "when?" - before the Christmas shopping season, or after.

Keep some cash handy for the bargain shopping opportunities.
Click to expand...
The chart forecast "The Perfect Storm".... While the chart does not portray a large portion of the American people... There is going to be the "ripple effect" that will impact every American...
1667155232891.png
 
As long as the "Free Money" flows.... Inflation will increase.

“The big question will be, given the resilience the economy has had to interest-rate increases so far, whether that will actually be sufficient,” said former Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren. “The risks are they’re going to have to do a bit more than they’re suggesting.”

U.S. households still have around $1.7 trillion in savings they accumulated through mid-2021 above and beyond what they would have saved if income and spending had grown in line with the prepandemic economy, according to estimates by Fed economists. Around $350 billion in excess savings as of June were held by the lower half of the income distribution, or around $5,500 per household on average.

www.wsj.com

Cash-Rich Consumers Could Mean Higher Interest Rates for Longer

Consumers and businesses buoyed by pandemic-fueled savings are proving less sensitive to tighter credit, which means more work for the Fed.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
 
Last edited:
Don’t discount the role the media plays in keeping the economic outlook looking rosy enough to help sway elections. Just look at the chaos they created and perpetuated with the chyna virus. The populace ate it up like candy.

Back in 2008, the media sure did lead the way to make the populace lose faith in the economy so it would crash in order to usher in the Kenyan.
 
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CEO Soren Skou said the “exceptional results” this year were driven by a continued rise in ocean freight rates, but said it was clear that these have peaked and will begin to normalize in the fourth quarter amid falling demand and an easing of supply chain congestion. Skou flagged that earnings in Maersk’s ocean operations will come down in the coming months.
www.cnbc.com

World’s largest container shipping firm Maersk, a barometer for global trade, warns of 'dark clouds on the horizon'

Maersk, the world's largest shipping container firm, on Wednesday posted record profit for the third quarter on the back of high ocean freight rates.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com
 
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