Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024

[Hobo Hilton]

Remain calm all is well. Do they believe the BS they say?

They are just reading the script. Bad actors.
Like watching a movie with kid. After the movie ends the kid ask "Dad, can they really do that?
"No son, that only happens in the movies."
Me and you are living in real life, not the movies of the politicians.

 

[IronSkillet]

They are just reading the script. Bad actors.
Like watching a movie with kid. After the movie ends the kid ask "Dad, can they really do that?
"No son, that only happens in the movies."
Me and you are living in real life, not the movies of the politicians.

It just reinforces the disconnect they have with the masses, people like me the working class. No clue what it takes to pay the utilities on time, fill the gas tank, and keep food on the table. How’s this work that the President just happens to find money he can give to Ukraine from other areas. My checkbook doesn’t work like that, and if Congress has a backbone they would stop him from doing this illegal transfer of funds, Iran-Contra. This money was appropriated to be spent elsewhere and not discretionary spending for him to give away.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

It just reinforces the disconnect they have with the masses, people like me the working class. No clue what it takes to pay the utilities on time, fill the gas tank, and keep food on the table. How’s this work that the President just happens to find money he can give to Ukraine from other areas. My checkbook doesn’t work like that, and if Congress has a backbone they would stop him from doing this illegal transfer of funds, Iran-Contra. This money was appropriated to be spent elsewhere and not discretionary spending for him to give away.

Any money I "find" goes to pay off debt. A simple equation.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DJIA?mod=refsymb_mw
The numbers: The New York Fed’s Empire State business-conditions index, a gauge of manufacturing activity in the state, fell 18.5 points in March to negative 20.9, the regional bank said Friday.

The drop was much larger than expected. Economists had expected a negative 6 reading, according to a survey by the Wall Street Journal.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I have been asked about the title:

Recession - 2022 / 2023 / 2024​

For the past 3 years the FED Reserve and the "Government" have been main lining money into the US Economy in an effort to prop it up and look good politically. Some people "get it" and now admit the Government helicopter money has done nothing more than devalue the USD by inflating it. The Government has been on a hiring tear and paying employees more than the private sector. Have any of you actually spoke to someone on the government payroll and attempted to get something done ? I have and the result is "zero". No reply to any of my communication. Like my messages went into the black hole.
A full on crash in 2022 would be in our rear view mirror, interest rates would be lower and the purchasing power of the USD would be stronger. While circling the airport waiting for a soft landing... The plane is running low on fuel.
Unsustainable

Home foreclosures are soaring nationwide – and rising fastest in these 5 states

Home foreclosures are on the upswing nationwide, according to a new report, a sign that homeowners are still struggling from the ongoing inflation crisis.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The double squeeze... Wages going down while inflation rages on.

US salaries are falling. Employers say compensation is just 'resetting'

Salaries for new roles are stagnating – and in some cases, falling. Some employers may be looking to cut costs, but the lack of wage growth may be a matter of post-pandemic correction.

www.bbc.com

 

[Jip4012]

It just reinforces the disconnect they have with the masses, people like me the working class. No clue what it takes to pay the utilities on time, fill the gas tank, and keep food on the table. How’s this work that the President just happens to find money he can give to Ukraine from other areas. My checkbook doesn’t work like that, and if Congress has a backbone they would stop him from doing this illegal transfer of funds, Iran-Contra. This money was appropriated to be spent elsewhere and not discretionary spending for him to give away.

I don’t think it’s a disconnect, they don’t care.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I don’t think it’s a disconnect, they don’t care.

What interest me is the "ripple effect". They all have children, grand children, friends, church members neighbors, etc that they are doing great harm to as far as their financial futures are concerned. Are they making enough from their graft and corruption to set up a trust that will support them well into the future ?

 

[Jip4012]

What interest me is the "ripple effect". They all have children, grand children, friends, church members neighbors, etc that they are doing great harm to as far as their financial futures are concerned. Are they making enough from their graft and corruption to set up a trust that will support them well into the future ?

I believe what we are slowly moving towards has lots of people on the bottom, a few on top, and virtually no middle. What they aren’t considering is the competency crisis that’s coming about as a resolut of their policies (DEI, etc)

 

[IronSkillet]

I believe what we are slowly moving towards has lots of people on the bottom, a few on top, and virtually no middle. What they aren’t considering is the competency crisis that’s coming about as a resolut of their policies (DEI, etc)

It is just another layer of the onion that once peeled back goes absolutely nowhere. Just because they are propped up today isn’t any indication that they actually have a ticket to get inside. A lot of players believing they is a somebody, but just really being played the fool.

 

[mtrmn]

What interest me is the "ripple effect". They all have children, grand children, friends, church members neighbors, etc that they are doing great harm to as far as their financial futures are concerned. Are they making enough from their graft and corruption to set up a trust that will support them well into the future ?

Probably along with the extra pay/benefits of being evil, they and anyone they may love are probably under threat, whether it be through death for non-compliance or blackmail through being exposed ala Epstein island or similar. (Notice how anybody that falls from grace with the left all of a sudden has child porn on their computer?)

Satan is in almost full control, but is limited as to how far he can go. Every day we get closer to him being toppled, but we'll see far far more evil than anybody can imagine before that happens.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I believe what we are slowly moving towards has lots of people on the bottom, a few on top, and virtually no middle. What they aren’t considering is the competency crisis that’s coming about as a resolut of their policies (DEI, etc)

One of the last lumber mills near me is shutting down.The "Government Officials" are saying they are doing everything for the employees who are losing their jobs. I reminded the "Government Officials" they were trying to solve a problem they created.... All the way back to the Spotted Owl in Oregon. They came back with the bull shit of labor shortages, lack of housing, unprecedented rising costs, plummeting lumber prices, and the cost of living in Western Montana. I fired back the US Forest Service shut down logging and as a result millions of square miles of timber burns every year. They said I should run for office.... LOL... I don't think so.
Don't think for one second "The Government" gives a rat's ass about you, your family or your well being.


On Thursday, Seely Lake, Montana's Pyramid Mountain Lumber, Inc. announced that it will cease operations later this spring, 8KPAX reported (3-14-24). The company cited labor shortages, lack of housing, unprecedented rising costs, plummeting lumber prices, and the cost of living in Western Montana.

Community leaders: Pyramid mill closure in Seeley Lake ‘devastating,’ ‘heartbreaking’

Community leaders said Friday news that Pyramid Mountain Lumber plans to close the Seeley Lake mill, the area’s largest employer, will change the fabric of the town in the Seeley-Swan. One day earlier, Pyramid announced its board of directors and shareholders unanimously voted “with the heaviest...

www.newsfromthestates.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Probably along with the extra pay/benefits of being evil, they and anyone they may love are probably under threat, whether it be through death for non-compliance or blackmail through being exposed ala Epstein island or similar. (Notice how anybody that falls from grace with the left all of a sudden has child porn on their computer?)

Satan is in almost full control, but is limited as to how far he can go. Every day we get closer to him being toppled, but we'll see far far more evil than anybody can imagine before that happens.

This ^^^^^^
I am at this point:

Psalm 86:17
Show me a sign for good, That those who hate me may see it and be ashamed, Because You, LORD, have helped me and comforted me.

 

[mtrmn]

This ^^^^^^
I am at this point:

Psalm 86:17
Show me a sign for good, That those who hate me may see it and be ashamed, Because You, LORD, have helped me and comforted me.

Yes, there is only One coming to save us. We may all likely be dead and gone before He comes back, but He has conquered death and we can surely live again through His mercy and grace toward us repentant sinners who believe on Jesus and Jesus alone.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Worldwide

TOKYO, March 18 (Reuters) - Japan's core machinery orders fell more than expected in January on the back of a weak manufacturing sector, data showed on Monday, prompting the government to downgrade its view on the indicator for the first time in more than a year.
The data, released on Monday by the Cabinet Office, follows recent data that highlighted concerns about the sluggish recovery in the world's fourth-biggest economy.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japan-core-machinery-orders-fall-more-than-expected-fuel-economic-uncertainty-2024-03-18/

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Credit scores fall for the first time in a decade as Americans struggle to save, keep up with payments

Credit scores have fallen for the first time in a decade as consumers struggle to make payments on time and save money, according to a recent report from FICO.

www.foxbusiness.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

At 2 pm (Wall Street time) the markets took a big jump up.

Jerome said:

Strong hiring wouldn’t push Fed to delay rate cuts, Powell says​

Continued strength in the labor market wouldn’t be a reason to hold off lowering interest rates, said Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
“Strong hiring in and of itself would not be a reason to hold off on rate cuts,” he said, adding that the job market by itself is not cause for concern around inflation. Earlier, Powell said “an unexpected weakening in the labor market could also warrant a policy response.”
___________________________________________

Here is how the Gold Market reacted.

Fed meeting recap: Everything Powell said during Wednesday's market-moving news conference

The Federal Reserve stood pat on interest rates, but it's also sticking with its forecast for three rate cuts before the year is out.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

For posterity, former Fed Governor (and often named future Fed Chair candidate) Kevin Warsh was interviewed Monday by CNBC’s Becky Quick:

“Process matters. Institutions matter. I’m a little less impressed about the strength of the U.S. economy today. The Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve – for the best of intentions, I’m sure – are goosing this economy… Massive government deficits at times of prosperity. A Fed promising to cut rates even as asset prices are melting up - looser policy. The rest of the world, especially our allies and adversaries, look at us, and maybe they’re impressed by GDP growth. Maybe they’re impressed by the stock market. But I wouldn’t say they’re overly impressed by the U.S. economic engine. The engine seems like it’s being stimulated even at a time of full employment.”

“The first thing I’d suggest is that the 19 people around the table spend more time thinking about – and describing – what are the factors that can affect inflation. I’ll say I’m a little puzzled by what their framework really is. We were led to believe last year that inflation was really services inflation and wage inflation. The new index they trotted out showed that services ex-housing is growing above 4%, so we haven’t heard about that for a while. Listen, I am sympathetic to their challenge in trying to navigate this economy as the world is on fire. But I think pre-committing, as they do in these series of dots – each person saying how many times they’d cut three, six, nine months from now – I think it’s deeply counterproductive. Now, for financial markets, it productive. Asset prices are melting up. But they’re taking big risks with inflation. So, if you’re living off your W2 income, they’re asking for inflation to move back higher. And I think some of the data suggests it is. But, of course, if you have a large balance sheet this is all a ‘great parting’. But ultimately what happens to hard working Americans matters more.”

Credit Bubble Bulletin

- Chronicling History's Greatest Financial Bubble

creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Using "Government Numbers", this is exactly what the Government wants. A perfect sign to cut interest rates. Best read the fine print.

Reuters
Mon, Apr 1, 2024, 8:03 AM MDT2 min read


1
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing grew for the first time in 1-1/2 years in March as production rebounded sharply and new orders increased, but employment at factories remained subdued and prices for inputs pushed higher.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that its manufacturing PMI increased to 50.3 last month, the highest and first reading above 50 since September 2022, from 47.8 in February.
The rebound ended 16 straight months of contraction in manufacturing, which accounts for 10.4% of the economy. That was the longest such stretch since the period from August 2000 to January 2002.
A PMI reading above 50 indicates growth in the manufacturing sector.

US manufacturing sector grows for the first time in 1-1/2 years

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that its manufacturing PMI increased to 50.3 last month, the highest and first reading above 50 since September 2022, from 47.8 in February. The rebound ended 16 straight months of contraction in manufacturing, which accounts for 10.4% of...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[babyguppy]

Using "Government Numbers", this is exactly what the Government wants. A perfect sign to cut interest rates. Best read the fine print.

Reuters
Mon, Apr 1, 2024, 8:03 AM MDT2 min read


1
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing grew for the first time in 1-1/2 years in March as production rebounded sharply and new orders increased, but employment at factories remained subdued and prices for inputs pushed higher.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that its manufacturing PMI increased to 50.3 last month, the highest and first reading above 50 since September 2022, from 47.8 in February.
The rebound ended 16 straight months of contraction in manufacturing, which accounts for 10.4% of the economy. That was the longest such stretch since the period from August 2000 to January 2002.
A PMI reading above 50 indicates growth in the manufacturing sector.

US manufacturing sector grows for the first time in 1-1/2 years

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that its manufacturing PMI increased to 50.3 last month, the highest and first reading above 50 since September 2022, from 47.8 in February. The rebound ended 16 straight months of contraction in manufacturing, which accounts for 10.4% of...

finance.yahoo.com

"The survey's measure of prices paid by manufacturers rose to 55.8 from 52.5 in February."

 

[babyguppy]

"The survey's measure of prices paid by manufacturers rose to 55.8 from 52.5 in February."

everybody dumped all their inventory; now with no inventory, they are starting to make product again at the higher rate; which will be passed on to consumers.
Now, the real question which the article doesn't go in to, WHICH manufacturing base?
Cars?
weapons?
Medical?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

everybody dumped all their inventory; now with no inventory, they are starting to make product again at the higher rate; which will be passed on to consumers.
Now, the real question which the article doesn't go in to, WHICH manufacturing base?
Cars?
weapons?
Medical?

Here is the break down... A large amount of "Hope" in the comments at the end of the report.

Manufacturing PMI® at 50.3%; March 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

/PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in March after contracting for 16 consecutive months, say the nation's supply executives...

www.prnewswire.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

LOL

Atlanta Fed President Bostic sees only one rate cut this year, occurring in the fourth quarter​

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/03/atlanta-fed-president-bostic-sees-only-one-rate-cut-this-year-occurring-in-the-fourth-quarter.html

 

[NoDopes]

Anybody else notice less and less people in local restaurants?

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Play by Play = After the fact. No forward looking ability. The laughing stock of the world.
The "Market" is driving the FED.
No positive outcome for the next 5 years.

“Rather than be strategic, this Fed is overly data dependent, and has turned into a play-by-play commentator,” El-Erian told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick at the Ambrosetti Spring Forum in Italy

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/el-erian-says-the-fed-has-turned-into-a-play-by-play-commentator.html

 

[Hobo Hilton]

FED Reserve - Continuing to circle the airport, hoping for a soft landing. In the mean time the printing presses are putting out more and more worthless USD's. You are paying for the collapse.

___________________

‘They can’t get it wrong again’: Economists are increasingly uncertain about Fed rate cuts this year​

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/08/they-cant-get-it-wrong-again-will-the-fed-cut-rates-this-year.html

 

[hero's machine]

One of the last lumber mills near me is shutting down.The "Government Officials" are saying they are doing everything for the employees who are losing their jobs. I reminded the "Government Officials" they were trying to solve a problem they created.... All the way back to the Spotted Owl in Oregon. They came back with the bull shit of labor shortages, lack of housing, unprecedented rising costs, plummeting lumber prices, and the cost of living in Western Montana. I fired back the US Forest Service shut down logging and as a result millions of square miles of timber burns every year. They said I should run for office.... LOL... I don't think so.
Don't think for one second "The Government" gives a rat's ass about you, your family or your well being.


On Thursday, Seely Lake, Montana's Pyramid Mountain Lumber, Inc. announced that it will cease operations later this spring, 8KPAX reported (3-14-24). The company cited labor shortages, lack of housing, unprecedented rising costs, plummeting lumber prices, and the cost of living in Western Montana.

Community leaders: Pyramid mill closure in Seeley Lake ‘devastating,’ ‘heartbreaking’

Community leaders said Friday news that Pyramid Mountain Lumber plans to close the Seeley Lake mill, the area’s largest employer, will change the fabric of the town in the Seeley-Swan. One day earlier, Pyramid announced its board of directors and shareholders unanimously voted “with the heaviest...

www.newsfromthestates.com

When the NAFTA/spotted owl/caribou....etc was used to destroy the lunber industry, I worked for a company (USNR) who built and serviced mill equipment. We moved from local work to international.....which was short lived as the foreign companies would order 1 of our products and then build it themselves by reverse engineering.

I worked with about 20 of the most skilled fabricatior/millwrights I've encountered.

In the end it was a blessing for me as it opened the doors to me working in hydroelectric which is WAAAAY more secure.....but I wonder about those who didn't get the same breaks as me.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

When the NAFTA/spotted owl/caribou....etc was used to destroy the lunber industry, I worked for a company (USNR) who built and serviced mill equipment. We moved from local work to international.....which was short lived as the foreign companies would order 1 of our products and then build it themselves by reverse engineering.

I worked with about 20 of the most skilled fabricatior/millwrights I've encountered.

In the end it was a blessing for me as it opened the doors to me working in hydroelectric which is WAAAAY more secure.....but I wonder about those who didn't get the same breaks as me.

Throughout my life I have witnessed "industries" being killed off, dismantled and moved to foreign countries. A few were sugar mills, forest products, mining, oil refining. Now America is a service economy and has few engineers and craftsmen to design and build producing industries. Rather than ramp up America's industries, they too are being parceled up and sold to foreign countries. Foreign operators will export natural resources from America to their own countries. The United States Government is funding these projects. Today, two top products are computer chips and rare minerals. The largest, by far, land owner in America is the US Government. They are selling off mineral rights to foreign countries. I watch Montana Senator Jon Tester saying he is fighting to keep foreign investors from buying land in America while the US Government is selling the resources off.

An overview of federal land policy and how federal land is managed can be accessed here. The federal government owns around 620 million acres of land (about 27 percent) of the 2.27 billion acres of land in the United States. Around 92 percent of federally owned acres are in 12 Western states.

Federal land ownership by state

Ballotpedia: The Encyclopedia of American Politics

ballotpedia.org

 

[Hobo Hilton]

How food companies like Coke and Kraft-Heinz are targeting low-income Americans​

NEW YORK, April 8 (Reuters) - Americans relying on government benefits to buy food and other essentials are slashing spending, prompting food makers like Kraft-Heinz and Conagra Brands to overhaul their products and strategies following years of price hikes.
Many of the biggest makers of packaged foods and drinks are seeing their sales volumes fall, due partly to low-income consumers -- typically making roughly less than $35,000 per year -- cooking from scratch, using up leftovers or just buying less.

https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/major-food-companies-offering-deals-new-sizes-low-income-americans-spend-less-2024-04-08/

 

[Hobo Hilton]

It's really starting to appear that the US Dollar Index (DXY) is just being manipulated to make the FED look better. Is anyone even fact checking the calculations on the "basket of currencies" ? Today was a down day in the world markets yet the DXY popped up .99% to 105.18.

The US dollar index started with a value of 100.000 and has since then ranged between 164.7200, touched in February 1985, and its all-time low of 70.698 which was hit on March 16, 2008. The reading is interpreted by comparing its current value and change of the dollars strength against its counterparts to its initial value. Thus, if the index is standing at 80.0000 in 2014, then the US dollar has lost ground against the basket of six currencies compared to its positions in 1973 (it has experienced a 20% loss in value).

https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-sideways-yen-under-watch-ahead-key-cpi-release-2024-04-10/

U.S. dollar index

The US dollar index is a measure which gauges the greenback's relative strength to six of its major trading counterparts.

www.tradingpedia.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

US Banks can not hold interest rates down... Regardless of what the FED Reserve says.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The media hasn't been instructed to light the fuse to spook investors to the exits just yet.

If the economic data we've been seeing for the past 2-3 years was happening during a republican controlled presidency, all you would hear on the TV and radio would be doom and gloom.

A measure of wholesale prices increased less than expected in March, providing some potential relief from worries that inflation will hold higher for longer than many economists had expected.
The producer price index increased 0.2% for the month, less than the 0.3% estimate from the Dow Jones consensus and not as much as the 0.6% increase in February, according to a release Thursday from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/11/ppi-inflation-report-march-2024-wholesale-prices-rose-0point2percent-in-march.html

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Sounding like "trouble" is on the horizon.

NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said Thursday that banks need to be prepared to use the Fed's discount window before trouble arrives.
Williams, speaking in New York before a banking group, said bank stress from last year showed many banks were not ready to tap Fed liquidity, and the central bank is working to rectify this situation now.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/feds-williams-banks-should-be-prepared-use-discount-window-if-needed-2024-04-11/

What Is a Discount Window, Why & How Do Banks Use It?

Discount window is a central bank lending facility meant to help banks manage short-term liquidity needs.

www.investopedia.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-more-than-expected-continuing-claims-rise-2024-04-11/

 

[Hobo Hilton]

If the USD is doing so well.... Why does it buy less this week than it did last week ?

U.S. dollar heads for best week in 18 months​

By Joseph Adinolfi
'King dollar' is back on top.
The greenback is headed for its best week since September 2022 on Friday as the latest batch of hotter-than-expected inflation data turbocharged bullish bets on the U.S. currency.
The ICE U.S. Dollar Index, a gauge of the buck's strength against a basket of rivals, was up 0.7% on Friday, extending its weekly advance to 1.6% as the index traded at 105.96, according to FactSet data.
This would be the dollar index's best week since a 3.1% advance during the week ended Sept. 23, 2022. The next-best performance was a 1.5% advance during the week ended May 12, 2023.
Traders dialed back the number of expected Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts from three to two following Wednesday's March CPI data, which showed that the disinflationary trend that began in late 2022 remained stalled last month.
Expectations that the European Central Bank could now beat the Fed to the punch by delivering a rate cut of its own in June have helped to weigh down the euro, driving the shared currency to its lowest value against the buck since Nov. 3 on Friday, according to FactSet data. As MarketWatch's Barbara Kollmeyer reported earlier, currency strategists believe the shared currency could soon test parity with the dollar for the first time since July 2022.
All of the dollar's major rivals have softened against the greenback this week. And nearly all of them continued to trade in the red against the dollar on Friday, with the exception of the Japanese yen, which rebounded after hitting a 34-year low on Thursday.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Something to think about... The DXY or the US Dollar Index. morning headlines are bragging on the "strength" of the USD.
Many foreign Central Banks are buying physical gold. Those selling large amounts of physical gold are requiring payment in USD's due to the uncertainty of the financial systems around the world. A Central Bank is converting their currency to USD's in order to pay for physical gold... Thus the US Dollar is appearing strong due to demand, not buying power.

https://www.reuters.com/plus/why-central-banks-buy-gold

 

[babyguppy]

Here is the break down... A large amount of "Hope" in the comments at the end of the report.

Manufacturing PMI® at 50.3%; March 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

/PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in March after contracting for 16 consecutive months, say the nation's supply executives...

www.prnewswire.com

HOPE and CHANGE

 

[Hobo Hilton]

The US Government / FED Reserve is lying. Eventually 51% of Americans will accept this fact and hopefully push back, in one way or another.
In the mean time we continue to hear statements like this:

Shelter (Housing) costs account for about a third of the CPI and were rising around 3.2% annually in the years before the pandemic; the figure in March was 5.7%.

Another word salad. Back the truck up. What about years 2022 and 2023 ? How about compare 2021to 2024 ?
___________________
In contrast, however, housing’s contribution to inflation has significantly increased. Housing now accounts for a third of the consumer basket of items measured in CPI, so even small increases can have an outsized impact on inflation.[1] Last June, housing accounted for a fifth of inflation, contributing 1.7 percentage points. By March 2023, housing’s contribution rose to 2.6 percentage points, making up half of annual CPI inflation. For perspective, before the pandemic housing would typically contribute about 1 percentage point to inflation.[2]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-goolsbee-keeps-policy-focus-pce-after-high-consumer-price-readings-2024-04-12/

An Update on Housing Inflation in the Consumer Price Index | CEA | The White House

Housing inflation has risen even as overall inflation has slowed. CEA explains factors behind this shift and a model that predicts easing later this year.

www.whitehouse.gov

 

[lariat]

Credit card defaults increasing along with restrictive lending.

 

[babyguppy]

Tesla Announces Layoffs of Over 10% of Global Workforce amid Growth Slowdown​

https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2024/04/15/elons-pink-slips-tesla-announces-layoffs-of-over-10-of-global-workforce-amid-growth-slowdown/

 

[LawTalker]

If the USD is doing so well.... Why does it buy less this week than it did last week ?

U.S. dollar heads for best week in 18 months​

By Joseph Adinolfi
'King dollar' is back on top.
The greenback is headed for its best week since September 2022 on Friday as the latest batch of hotter-than-expected inflation data turbocharged bullish bets on the U.S. currency.
The ICE U.S. Dollar Index, a gauge of the buck's strength against a basket of rivals, was up 0.7% on Friday, extending its weekly advance to 1.6% as the index traded at 105.96, according to FactSet data.
This would be the dollar index's best week since a 3.1% advance during the week ended Sept. 23, 2022. The next-best performance was a 1.5% advance during the week ended May 12, 2023.
Traders dialed back the number of expected Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts from three to two following Wednesday's March CPI data, which showed that the disinflationary trend that began in late 2022 remained stalled last month.
Expectations that the European Central Bank could now beat the Fed to the punch by delivering a rate cut of its own in June have helped to weigh down the euro, driving the shared currency to its lowest value against the buck since Nov. 3 on Friday, according to FactSet data. As MarketWatch's Barbara Kollmeyer reported earlier, currency strategists believe the shared currency could soon test parity with the dollar for the first time since July 2022.
All of the dollar's major rivals have softened against the greenback this week. And nearly all of them continued to trade in the red against the dollar on Friday, with the exception of the Japanese yen, which rebounded after hitting a 34-year low on Thursday.

Great Leader is gaslighting us-

FACT SHEET: One Year In, President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act is Driving Historic Climate Action and Investing in America to Create Good Paying Jobs and Reduce Costs | The White House

One year ago, on August 16, 2022, President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act into law – the largest investment in clean energy and climate action ever. The Inflation Reduction Act is a transformative law that is helping the United States meet its climate goals and strengthen energy...

www.whitehouse.gov

FACT SHEET: One Year In, President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act is Driving Historic Climate Action and Investing in America to Create Good Paying Jobs and Reduce Costs​

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/19/opinion/core-inflation-rate-data.html

"Inflation is down, denial is soaring."

Inflation Is Slowing But Prices Are Still High: Here's Why | Bankrate

Inflation is when the cost of goods and services rises over a sustained period, and it can be hard to distinguish from sporadic price jumps.

www.bankrate.com

Inflation is slowing, but prices are still uncomfortably high — here’s what’s driving it​

I believe it was NBC which last week said that "inflation is down, the numbers are not wrong, you are wrong."

 

[LawTalker]

The US Government / FED Reserve is lying. Eventually 51% of Americans will accept this fact and hopefully push back, in one way or another.
In the mean time we continue to hear statements like this:

Shelter (Housing) costs account for about a third of the CPI and were rising around 3.2% annually in the years before the pandemic; the figure in March was 5.7%.

Another word salad. Back the truck up. What about years 2022 and 2023 ? How about compare 2021to 2024 ?
___________________
In contrast, however, housing’s contribution to inflation has significantly increased. Housing now accounts for a third of the consumer basket of items measured in CPI, so even small increases can have an outsized impact on inflation.[1] Last June, housing accounted for a fifth of inflation, contributing 1.7 percentage points. By March 2023, housing’s contribution rose to 2.6 percentage points, making up half of annual CPI inflation. For perspective, before the pandemic housing would typically contribute about 1 percentage point to inflation.[2]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-goolsbee-keeps-policy-focus-pce-after-high-consumer-price-readings-2024-04-12/

An Update on Housing Inflation in the Consumer Price Index | CEA | The White House

Housing inflation has risen even as overall inflation has slowed. CEA explains factors behind this shift and a model that predicts easing later this year.

www.whitehouse.gov

An old [in his 70s] retired engineer friend of mine crunched a bunch of number and then informed me that "in terms of 1913 gold ounces, a house today has never been cheaper, in terms of dollars houses are more expensive than they have ever been."

I also heard virtually the same thing from a friend of mine who was a professional boxer before he became a military officer and then an IT system administrator. Both of those guys are solid with the numbers they run.

In 1900 the average home in the USA cost between $1,500 and $3,500 with gold worth $20.67 per ounce. That means at $3,500 a house in 1900 would be about 169 ounces of gold.

Today I believe gold spotted at $2,350 USD per ounce.

169 ounces of gold x $2,350 = $397,150.00


The average price of a house in the USA in 2024 is about $380,000 [across the nation, average].

It would take about $397,150 to buy the gold in 2024 to buy a basic house in 1900.

But you only need about 161 ounces of gold in 2024 to buy a basic house in 2024.


Let's just pick a state at random from the Most Affordable list.

Average house price in the USA 2024 – A complete state wise list

Explore the average house prices in the USA for 2024, discover trends, and weigh the factors influencing housing markets across different states.

www.instarem.com

Oklahoma...

$198,936 dollars for an average sale price of a home. 84 ounces of gold at $2,350 per ounce, enough for a modern home in Oklahoma but probably not enough for a typical home in 1900 USA.

Houses are very cheap [close to the same prices as they were 110+ years ago] in terms of gold, but very expensive in terms of dollars.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

An old [in his 70s] retired engineer friend of mine crunched a bunch of number and then informed me that "in terms of 1913 gold ounces, a house today has never been cheaper, in terms of dollars houses are more expensive than they have ever been."

I also heard virtually the same thing from a friend of mine who was a professional boxer before he became a military officer and then an IT system administrator. Both of those guys are solid with the numbers they run.

In 1900 the average home in the USA cost between $1,500 and $3,500 with gold worth $20.67 per ounce. That means at $3,500 a house in 1900 would be about 169 ounces of gold.

Today I believe gold spotted at $2,350 USD per ounce.

169 ounces of gold x $2,350 = $397,150.00


The average price of a house in the USA in 2024 is about $380,000 [across the nation, average].

It would take about $397,150 to buy the gold in 2024 to buy a basic house in 1900.

But you only need about 161 ounces of gold in 2024 to buy a basic house in 2024.


Let's just pick a state at random from the Most Affordable list.

Average house price in the USA 2024 – A complete state wise list

Explore the average house prices in the USA for 2024, discover trends, and weigh the factors influencing housing markets across different states.

www.instarem.com

Oklahoma...

$198,936 dollars for an average sale price of a home. 84 ounces of gold at $2,350 per ounce, enough for a modern home in Oklahoma but probably not enough for a typical home in 1900 USA.

Houses are very cheap [close to the same prices as they were 110+ years ago] in terms of gold, but very expensive in terms of dollars.

I agree with your explanation of the "loss of buying power" of the USD.
Americans are getting some very nice raises but the USD's are buying less.
The inflation cycle - Make more $ - Spend more $ - Make more $ - Spend more $

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Home builders are gun shy and don't want to get stuck with a bunch of houses no one can afford to buy.

Key details: Builders scaled back constructing new single-family homes, leading to a 12.4% drop, as well as apartment starts, which fell 20.8%.

New-home construction posts biggest drop in four years, despite America facing a housing shortage

www.morningstar.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Jerome Powell:
“The recent data do not materially change the overall picture, which continues to be one of solid growth, a strong but rebalancing labor market, and inflation moving down toward 2% on a sometimes bumpy path,” Powell said on April 3. He continued to expect interest-rate decreases in 2024. Fed officials’ median forecast called for a total of 0.75 percentage point of reductions to the federal-funds rate by the end of the year, from the current 5.25% to 5.5% target range.

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/fed-powell-speech-economy-inflation-rates-today-c6b764c3?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

 

[Hobo Hilton]

J.B. Hunt Transport Services’ profit and revenue fell in the first quarter as demand for its domestic intermodal service softened more than expected and trucking volumes fell in a weak U.S. freight market.
The trucking and logistics company, a bellwether for the domestic shipping market, posted a profit of $127.5 million, down from $197.8 million in the same quarter a year ago.
Quarterly earnings fell to $1.22 a share from $1.89 a share last year. Analysts had been looking for $1.50 a share in earnings.
Overall revenue slid 9% to $2.94 billion, missing analyst forecasts for $3.11 billion, according to FactSet.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/j-b-hunt-earnings-tumble-in-weak-freight-market-5ae6339a?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D84505057292914696023868086457280578426%7CMCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%2540AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1713361806

 

[Hobo Hilton]

LOL... Worries about the "Golden Goose"

IMF worried about global spillovers from loose U.S. fiscal policy​

The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday turned its spotlight on the growing U.S. fiscal deficit, warning that it is now a risk to both the domestic economy and global economy.
Loose U.S. fiscal policy could be a factor in making it “harder to achieve” the “last mile” of progress on bringing domestic inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target, the IMF said, in its latest report on global fiscal policy.
At the same time,, “high and volatile” government bond yields in the United States could spillover and lead to tighter financing conditions in the rest of the world, the agency warned.
The IMF said that the U.S. experienced remarkably large fiscal slippage in 2023, with the general government fiscal deficit rising to 8.8% of GDP from 4.1% of GDP in 2022, despite unexpectedly strong growth in the economy.Income tax revenue plummeted by 3.1 percentage points of GDP, owing to lower capital gains taxes and delayed tax payment deadlines.At the same time, spending increased by 1.3 percentage points of GDP.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/imf-worried-about-global-spillovers-from-loose-u-s-fiscal-policy-808026e7?mod=bnbh

 

[Hobo Hilton]

If there was any doubt before, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has pretty much cemented the likelihood that there won’t be interest rate reductions anytime soon.
Now, Wall Street is wondering if the central bank will cut at all this year.

Wall Street pushes out rate-cut expectations, sees risk they don’t start until March 2025​

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/wall-street-pushes-out-rate-cut-expectations-sees-risk-of-no-action-until-2025.html

 

[LawTalker]

Home builders are gun shy and don't want to get stuck with a bunch of houses no one can afford to buy.

Key details: Builders scaled back constructing new single-family homes, leading to a 12.4% drop, as well as apartment starts, which fell 20.8%.

New-home construction posts biggest drop in four years, despite America facing a housing shortage

www.morningstar.com

I am sure the government will be happy to serve as a guarantor for home-builders, so long as the government can get assurances that unsold homes will be given to illegal aliens.

Let's never fail to remember that Blackrock might want to step in and use trillions in easy fed money to buy up all new housing stock so they can be the largest landlord in the nation and then they can set the policies.

In the coming era, the government will use private entities to engage in censorship and deprivation of rights in ways that would not be permissible for the government to do directly in its own right. This will take the shape of Blackrock being the largest landlord in the USA and pushing vaccine requirements on all tenants and making all rentals "gun free" zones.


All major policies that the government wishes to implement that would otherwise be clear civil rights violations, such as speech restrictions, censorship, suppression of religious liberty/expression, suppression of firearms rights, suppression of medical freedom, will ultimately be accomplished by a handful of corporations working closely with the government. The government will insist, "no civil rights violations are occurring, this is not an instance of 1983, because no state action is involved, Blackrock can set any policies they want."

These corporations, receiving endless Fed money and having close working relationships with the government, are effectively becoming institutions of the government being used as arms of government policy.

 

[lariat]

Here is a good synopsis of the recession, unemployment and inflation. Easily understood. Dropped today.