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Smarter Than You

Herb Stoner

Public Nuisance
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Minuteman
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Jan 13, 2019
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As a former corporate finance guy I'm seeing a lot of this already - a big wave is on the horizon...

Dario Amodei — CEO of Anthropic, one of the world's most powerful creators of artificial intelligence — has a blunt, scary warning for the U.S. government and all of us:

  • AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs — and spike unemployment to 10-20% in the next one to five years, Amodei told us in an interview from his San Francisco office.
  • Amodei said AI companies and government need to stop "sugar-coating" what's coming: the possible mass elimination of jobs across technology, finance, law, consulting and other white-collar professions, especially entry-level gigs.

Why it matters: Amodei, 42, who's building the very technology he predicts could reorder society overnight, said he's speaking out in hopes of jarring government and fellow AI companies into preparing — and protecting — the nation.

Few are paying attention. Lawmakers don't get it or don't believe it. CEOs are afraid to talk about it. Many workers won't realize the risks posed by the possible job apocalypse — until after it hits.

  • "Most of them are unaware that this is about to happen," Amodei told us. "It sounds crazy, and people just don't believe it."
The big picture: President Trump has been quiet on the job risks from AI. But Steve Bannon — a top official in Trump's first term, whose "War Room" is one of the most powerful MAGA podcasts — says AI job-killing, which gets virtually no attention now, will be a major issue in the 2028 presidential campaign.

  • "I don't think anyone is taking into consideration how administrative, managerial and tech jobs for people under 30 — entry-level jobs that are so important in your 20s — are going to be eviscerated," Bannon told us.
Amodei — who had just rolled out the latest versions of his own AI, which can code at near-human levels — said the technology holds unimaginable possibilities to unleash mass good and bad at scale:

  • "Cancer is cured, the economy grows at 10% a year, the budget is balanced — and 20% of people don't have jobs." That's one very possible scenario rattling in his mind as AI power expands exponentially.
The backstory: Amodei agreed to go on the record with a deep concern that other leading AI executives have told us privately. Even those who are optimistic AI will unleash unthinkable cures and unimaginable economic growth fear dangerous short-term pain — and a possible job bloodbath during Trump's term.

Full Article Here - https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/ai-jobs-white-collar-unemployment-anthropic?
 
As a former corporate finance guy I'm seeing a lot of this already - a big wave is on the horizon...

Dario Amodei — CEO of Anthropic, one of the world's most powerful creators of artificial intelligence — has a blunt, scary warning for the U.S. government and all of us:

  • AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs — and spike unemployment to 10-20% in the next one to five years, Amodei told us in an interview from his San Francisco office.
  • Amodei said AI companies and government need to stop "sugar-coating" what's coming: the possible mass elimination of jobs across technology, finance, law, consulting and other white-collar professions, especially entry-level gigs.

Why it matters: Amodei, 42, who's building the very technology he predicts could reorder society overnight, said he's speaking out in hopes of jarring government and fellow AI companies into preparing — and protecting — the nation.

Few are paying attention. Lawmakers don't get it or don't believe it. CEOs are afraid to talk about it. Many workers won't realize the risks posed by the possible job apocalypse — until after it hits.

  • "Most of them are unaware that this is about to happen," Amodei told us. "It sounds crazy, and people just don't believe it."
The big picture: President Trump has been quiet on the job risks from AI. But Steve Bannon — a top official in Trump's first term, whose "War Room" is one of the most powerful MAGA podcasts — says AI job-killing, which gets virtually no attention now, will be a major issue in the 2028 presidential campaign.

  • "I don't think anyone is taking into consideration how administrative, managerial and tech jobs for people under 30 — entry-level jobs that are so important in your 20s — are going to be eviscerated," Bannon told us.
Amodei — who had just rolled out the latest versions of his own AI, which can code at near-human levels — said the technology holds unimaginable possibilities to unleash mass good and bad at scale:

  • "Cancer is cured, the economy grows at 10% a year, the budget is balanced — and 20% of people don't have jobs." That's one very possible scenario rattling in his mind as AI power expands exponentially.
The backstory: Amodei agreed to go on the record with a deep concern that other leading AI executives have told us privately. Even those who are optimistic AI will unleash unthinkable cures and unimaginable economic growth fear dangerous short-term pain — and a possible job bloodbath during Trump's term.

Full Article Here - https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/ai-jobs-white-collar-unemployment-anthropic?
20%?

Well, the Joke is on him. At least 80% of people in the modern workplace aren't actually working anyways. 20% of the employees are doing 95% of the work, and the rest are very busy on social media. Especially the .gov employees. Looking at you VA, and a bunch more. If your job can be done by a program, you had better start working on your next career.
 
True. Watch for "Basic Income" to become a hot topic. Notice the major corporations with 3000 jobs cut here, 5000 jobs cut there but do not worry - these are corporate HQs jobs. If you can do it remote or on a spreadsheet - jobs are in jeopardy. Going to hit India and other countries hard (spreadsheet jobs outsourced overseas).
 
Many of these jobs could have completely automated over a decade ago, but the calculations were different.

“Am I going to pay 20 engineers, making $150k+/yr, to automate the jobs of those making $30k……and then keep paying a few of them to maintain the system?”

Versus

“Am I going to have 3 of my existing, non-engineering employees automate the jobs of those same people?”

The sad truth is that a majority of employees contribute very little. They give 2-3hrs of inefficient work per day and are lifted/elevated by the small number of productive experts.
 
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As a former corporate finance guy I'm seeing a lot of this already - a big wave is on the horizon...

Dario Amodei — CEO of Anthropic, one of the world's most powerful creators of artificial intelligence — has a blunt, scary warning for the U.S. government and all of us:
  • AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs — and spike unemployment to 10-20% in the next one to five years, Amodei told us in an interview from his San Francisco office.
  • Amodei said AI companies and government need to stop "sugar-coating" what's coming: the possible mass elimination of jobs across technology, finance, law, consulting and other white-collar professions, especially entry-level gigs.

Why it matters: Amodei, 42, who's building the very technology he predicts could reorder society overnight, said he's speaking out in hopes of jarring government and fellow AI companies into preparing — and protecting — the nation.

Few are paying attention. Lawmakers don't get it or don't believe it. CEOs are afraid to talk about it. Many workers won't realize the risks posed by the possible job apocalypse — until after it hits.


  • "Most of them are unaware that this is about to happen," Amodei told us. "It sounds crazy, and people just don't believe it."
The big picture: President Trump has been quiet on the job risks from AI. But Steve Bannon — a top official in Trump's first term, whose "War Room" is one of the most powerful MAGA podcasts — says AI job-killing, which gets virtually no attention now, will be a major issue in the 2028 presidential campaign.

  • "I don't think anyone is taking into consideration how administrative, managerial and tech jobs for people under 30 — entry-level jobs that are so important in your 20s — are going to be eviscerated," Bannon told us.
Amodei — who had just rolled out the latest versions of his own AI, which can code at near-human levels — said the technology holds unimaginable possibilities to unleash mass good and bad at scale:

  • "Cancer is cured, the economy grows at 10% a year, the budget is balanced — and 20% of people don't have jobs." That's one very possible scenario rattling in his mind as AI power expands exponentially.
The backstory: Amodei agreed to go on the record with a deep concern that other leading AI executives have told us privately. Even those who are optimistic AI will unleash unthinkable cures and unimaginable economic growth fear dangerous short-term pain — and a possible job bloodbath during Trump's term.

Full Article Here - https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/ai-jobs-white-collar-unemployment-anthropic?
This already happened in a different time and form earlier on. When the US adopted Democratic Globalism as an economic system it had the same effect.
 
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AI will absolutely replace a lot of white collar, degree required jobs. Pretty much any desk job that consists of one human sending ones and zeros back and forth to another human will be done by AI.

Most college degrees that open doors to white collar jobs will be even more useless.

AI shouldn't have much effect on the hands on trades. Still gotta have plumbers, electricians, mechanics, machinists, welders, etc to make the world go round.
 
I worked on a corporate level Innovation team at a major paper company. My boss and I got called to the CEO's office 10 years ago - we were charged with two missions - 1) what is this "Big Data" thing he kept hearing about and 2) does the company have an issue with hiring and retaining workers (specifically the amount of experienced workers retiring). We did an extensive study and came back - 1) the employee issue is a crisis - we were losing experienced workers and could not replace them (generational - paper mills often in rural America - younger generations do not want to work in rural America (and - IMHO - do not want to "work") and 2) the answer to the worker crisis is automate EVERYTHING.

We stared a massive "Big Data" campaign along with automation of every possible task - AI was taking off and they were in forerunner position.

I retired 4 years ago (part of that loss of experience) but the automation is accelerating.
 
Still gotta have plumbers, electricians, mechanics, machinists, welders, etc to make the world go round.
Yep, there are some things a robot may never be able to do or at least we are still a very long way aways from.

AI/Robots ain't roughing-in plumbing, electrical, or HVAC anytime soon.
 
Yep, there are some things a robot may never be able to do or at least we are still a very long way aways from.

AI/Robots ain't roughing-in plumbing, electrical, or HVAC anytime soon.
this is FS. hands on trades,medicine,all repair and installation type work is the way to go for young people,IMHO. there are a lot of warnings about AI floating around from people who seem to be knowledgeable. terrifying at the skynet level.
 
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Several companies are developing a new generation of small nuclear reactors designed specifically to power server farms, data centers, and semiconductor fabrication facilities.

It is an interesting approach to providing a substantial amount of electricity in a compact footprint with minimal downsides compared to solar and wind technologies.
 
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Solar and wind won't provide the electricity required to run the computers needed. I'll wager that they are going to make a push to start nuclear power again.
Interesting (astute) observation. Right now, Facebook/Meta is building a huge new data center in my AO, directly across the road from a big Hyundai car manufacturing plant. From what I can see in the infrastructure, they're planning on the data center to be pulling A LOT more power than the plant that's building freakin' cars across the road. This is just my observation, I don't have any data to back it up - just what I can see in the installation, so maybe I'm wrong.
 
So what your saying is stick to the trades and skip college and stay out of debt
No better time to go to college than the present. With professors having chatGPT write all their assignments and students having chatGPT complete them. One can pay 10s of thousands of dollars and get through college without learning anything. 🤡🤡🤡
 
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Yep, there are some things a robot may never be able to do or at least we are still a very long way aways from.

AI/Robots ain't roughing-in plumbing, electrical, or HVAC anytime soon.

They'll just print it already done.
The rough ins on track homes/multi family may be in jeopardy no doubt, but it'll be awhile. The skilled repair men are the ones that will be near impossible to replace. Too much complex physical problem solving. That'll be the way, tell your children.
 
Yep, there are some things a robot may never be able to do or at least we are still a very long way aways from.

AI/Robots ain't roughing-in plumbing, electrical, or HVAC anytime soon.
It could eliminate PM, master tradesman, inspectors ect. Cool you work in the trades as a parts changer/installer making min wage. Same with machinists that becomes button pushers and part changers. It's going to effect everyone and not for the better. No one is safe
 
The rough ins on track homes/multi family may be in jeopardy no doubt, but it'll be awhile. The skilled repair men are the ones that will be near impossible to replace. Too much complex physical problem solving. That'll be the way, tell your children.
Nope. AI will perform diagnostic and repair suggestions with instructions. It's already being used in some industries and only going to get better as the models refine.
 
AI is neither. It’s database software with a fancy UI and lots of cheap storage.

The only thing it is good for is boosting stock values because everyone has bought into a buzzword… and is being fed a line of fear, uncertainty and doubt marketing…

If there is any wave coming it is that AI will crash and burn more spectacularly than most of the dot comms in 2000-2001… and take everyone’s over inflated investments in hyped companies… with it.

Real AI is far off and will not be software based…

Sirhr
 
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You would be surprised some of the current capabilities. My wife's company is already starting to replace safety professionals with AI. They can take 360 pictures of an area and AI will point out all the violations, risk areas and suggestions to engineer out some risk. She is the one that is training and refining the model and it just keeps getting better and better. Its going to eliminate a TON of mid/lower level jobs and save a shit load of money in the long run. And that is only one application, in a non IT centric company.
 
Nuclear has been quietly growing for a decade. Quietly because as soon as it became public knowledge, the environmentalists start up with their bullshit.

Si. Quietly is the important word here so as not to trigger the mentally ill greenies.

The small reactors @Nik H mentioned earlier took a blow recently but not from political agendas that I can tell, unless it's the push to stoopid wind power. Been watching NuScale for a while, would be cool to see neighborhood reactors the way MUDs are set up but dat M$O$N$E$Y ...

 
Won't happen in our lifetime . The leftists here are rabidly anti nuke power. There will be lawsuits galore. What's interesting is France which is as lefty as you get is building nukes as fast as they can.

Yeah, greenies want unstable wind and unstable solar because they've been fed a steady diet of bullshit and they thrive on it.
 
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AI is neither. It’s database software with a fancy UI and lots of cheap storage.

...

Real AI is far off and will not be software based…

Si.

Back in the day we had expert systems and rule based systems. Purpose built software 'apps' designed and coded to make decisions from observations on a predetermined set of criteria to deliver a desired outcome.

Most current "AI" applications being marketed to the public aren't much more than this.

Not to say there isn't some real effort happening to create a "true" AI but AFAIK nobody has a H.A.L. yet or anything close.