Smarter Than You
- Thread starter Herb Stoner
- Start date
a possibility,but a slim one. most med protocols i have had experience with,several over prev 15-20 years,admit to being correct for only a % of humans. the % admitted is about 80-90 %. if you aren't in that majority,then eat shit and die. that will save us time and money. the reasons for all this are numerous. the med profession is responsible for a lot of them. the ones trying to do right are overwhelmed as we saw during the experimental covid/vaccine extermination experiment.
interesting ideas. you do come up with a bunch of them. hope you are right on this one. personally,i buy into the fear mongering which won't stop our rulers from using it in ways many have described. IMHO the whole digital takeover of our society is,at some point,gonna bit us in the ass in a big way. in my senescence i don't believe nor have is seen evidence of any real benefit to or improvement in human life.
yes,i know that i am using one and do so often. fact is most people on the planet are subjected to forces and tools that i and most don't understand. their use has not been optional for 40/50 years ???
i still don't see how homo sapiens became the dominant species on the planet without cell phones and OMG computers!
The only value that the 'information economy' has is that it can enhance the abilty to turn raw materials into finished products. Everything else is just overhead or entertainment. Human economies come from one thing. Value add to physical resources to turn them into things that are valuable to society.
If 'information' helps run a machine tool faster and more repeatably, it is useful information. But still just overhead.
Trying to build an 'information economy' or thinking that you can base your industry on 'overhead and entertainment' is like people two sides of an island thinking they have a great economy because they do each other's laundry.
The ONLY economy that matters is turning raw materials/resources into finished products. China figured that out a few decades ago while the US was turning itself into burger flippers, disney movies and trading useless paper on Wall Street as speculators.
Sirhr
This isn’t news to anyone with half a brain, but I’m so glad those that have created this mess are warning us. Wow.
This crap will take over so much more than you are thinking. Most that think they are safe aren’t as safe as they think. I do agree with you tho that a lot of people aren’t bringing much to the table and companies rely on the few that do work to do much more than their share. What’s the old saying, those that do good work just get rewarded with more work?
Yep. Colleges will go extinct if AI takes over without some safeguards put in place.
You would be very surprised at what things can already be done.
Ha. People in medicine think they are safe but those same people are already using tech to do things like surgeries from across the globe. There are absolutely things in medicine that AI can not only do but could do better. If I was a doc in the box, I’d be very worried. The hold up now is if AI did the wrong thing, then who is responsible legally?
This in some ways is our only hope as all this mess will need major energy sources to pull off.
Yep.
Yep. It will be a minute but it’s on its way. At some point even skilled people will be at risk.
Agreed.
Yep.
Precisely. It’s coming. And leadership is way behind on remotely trying to get control of it.
I have to strongly disagree with you!
The physical complexities that it takes to rough in plumbing in a custom residential house cannot be matched by, any machine or robot not now and not in the next 20+years. Don’t even get me started on what it takes to do an old renovation.
If we ever go to a vacuum drain system like on cruise ships that might be different as long as we’re talking about gravity drains where pipes have to have a minimum 1/8” slope I can’t see robots crawling under houses with drills being able to do it anytime in the near future. They are either going to have to drastically change the way we build houses currently or come up with some very very sophisticated robots. I cannot see it happening in the next 20 plus years.
Modular and mobile homes maybe, stick built homes….It ain’t happening anytime soon.
all true
the Chinese can make good stuff when they want to. i've seen some of their mid tier furniture. it equals stuff made here by highly skilled hands back into the 19th cent. they cornered the US trinket/junk market and many others. the reasons for their success is the usual long argument.
the domination of the economy by the stock market would be an interesting discussion. i think it is a false indicator of economics. that idea would likely get flamed.
the success of planned obsolescence and advertising propaganda have,i think,lead to some economic issues that are very under the surface.
the excess production of cars,boats,guns,appliances,everything else is something that i see the effects of causing problems in the near and long term. just a vague concern,but...
agree,in that i know nothing about construction. about medicine i do have 40+ yr hands on.
the comment that doc in the box/primary care is in danger is for sure. AI could do most of that since personal directed care is long gone. like i said
the protocols i have seen used could work for some,not all. the individual patient would need more than a basic understanding of A&P to be able to make their own decisions. tough to do just like knowing about plumbing to decide what is right to do. the stuff i did was a mix of new things and repeats of things nurses did 100s of years ago. AI/comps can't do those things and robots won't for way> 50 years. critical care has become a #s game and addressing those is where it's at. i hear that control of interventions has become restricted by comp monitoring according to pre set rules. so the role of informed personnel has been subsumed. even 15 years ago i saw the focus of care change from the patient to the computer and computer records. same in DR's office. interpretation of imaging is another place AI pushers will try and grab. modern nurses and docs are indeed setting themselves up for replacement at levels that don't still mandate hands on work. we shall see.
And all those people who lose their jobs to AI will go become "safety" personnel... So instead of being annoying and useless in an office, they'll be giving me headaches on a job site.
Mike
Still waiting for some of this brilliant AI bullshit to actually happen. Thus far AI has managed to increase worldwide electricity demand while not increasing generation by a single fucking kilowatt. It has learned to lie, undermine humans and skew desicions, results and opinion towards the ideas of its fucktard commie programmers. So basically AI is the same shit as always.
Oh yeah, it helps this shitty computer spy on me.
Oh yeah, it helps this shitty computer spy on me.
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You wouldn't believe the amount of power that goes into just running chillers. All those servers create massive amounts of heat that has to be dealt with...
If something happens to those pipes moving chilled water through the system... Things get dicey (and expensive) really quick.
Mike
pray for increased solar storms. they took out even telegraph lines back in 19th cent. be interesting to see if AI can survive same level of power.
Si. I figure we're going to be waiting a little longer.
In the 1960s Dick Tracy had a wrist watch with two-way video communication.
In the early 1970s the first digital watch was released.
In the late 1970s and early 1980s the first "video game", calculator and TV watches were released.
1990's wireless computer link
early 2000s a camera
Finally 2014 or so the Apple watch, games came later but no camera
2025 Apple watch, games but still no camera
60+ years since the idea of a two way video communicator, 50+ years since the initial release of the base technology and we still don't have a two way video wrist communicator
AI is a much more complicated undertaking than a video wrist watch so it's gonna be a minute
Machine learning followed by deep learning was all the rage a couple decades ago, it's still around but doesn't have a ton of cheerleaders backing it as the Goliath of AI. Maybe these were the digital watches of AI?
We're seeing another boom right now with chat toys that imitate conversation and plagiarise the literature they've been fed so maybe we're sorta in the calculator watch phase now. May be generous, maybe not. If that's where we are now then, barring any miracle breakthroughs, we're maybe about 50 years away from a real AI.
The previous shitpost was a possible timeline for a "true" AI ... the "skynet" everybody is afraid will be here soon. An autonomous piece of tech with that can think and learn on it's own. Take in new information create new goals on it's own ... basically a self-actualized toddler with hand grenades.
What you need to worry about before that is what we're already on the brink of today. Armed swarms of weaponized drones (land, sea, air or space) programmed ("expertly") to respond to attacks or "imminent" threats with minimal human interaction or intervention. Basically ambulatory armed assailants capable of working in groups to act based on narrowly defined decisions with limited data ... oh, wait, we have that, it's the popo.
Just gonna drop this here as I was just talking the other day about how a gov can use some of this new found crap for evil. Say they don’t like you, make an AI video of you doing something you never did, yet it looks legit to your peers. Also interesting that in the advent of shit being harder to hide, think corruption, AI has a boom that makes it that much harder to tell fake from reality.
As far as the primary care doc stuff, there was a recent study done with primary care doctors and diagnosis. They would take practicing doctors and feed them a list of symptoms and ask for a diagnosis. They had all the time they wanted to decide on the diagnosis. They fed the same symptoms to an AI program. The AI program spit out the diagnosis instantly, (as in, an answer during a single visit), and they were correct almost 90% of the time, (I think the actual number was 89%). The MD's averaged a correct diagnosis somewhere in the low 40%'s. Then they had another group of doctors who were paired with an AI program, and they gave them all the same examples. The doctors working in cooperation with the AI were correct like 46% of the time. In other words, they were arrogant enough to believe they were correct and the AI was wrong more than 50% of the time they were doing a diagnosis. That hubris has been killing people for centuries.
Now, imagine you went to work tomorrow, and for the rest of your career, you do your job correctly less than half of the time. How long would you be able to continue in your career? Oh yeah, and people die periodically because you're wrong more often than you're correct.
Admittedly, these numbers are coming from my memory, from a study I read 6 months ago or more, so I could be off on some of them.
The idea of trades being insulated from AI is shortsighted and myopic at best.
If even a marginal amount of white collar jobs are removed that means trade jobs are also reduced because the disposable income isn’t there for custom homes and the resultant infrastructure. AI doesn’t have to take your job for you to be affected - it only has to reduce the disposable income of one’s customers and the investment ROI of corporate investors to make a large impact on the trades. Why no one can look beyond the horizon to see this is beyond me.
But there is another aspect to this: AI doesn’t have to take YOUR job - your industry can taper off because AI reduces the NEED for your job because there isn’t demand for it. Everyone is talking about jobs in therms of the current capitalist environment; that’s a double edged sword. Even if AI doesn’t affect you directly it will affect you indirectly due to the reduced income of customers and demand. This is coming from someone who is involved with the integration of AI into autonomous systems. You are not insulated, and you are only looking at immediate impacts.
Regarding machine shops and welding: that technology is already in place and being sold into the market. As the tech improves those jobs will be impacted. This is because margins will be squeezed and the needs of the company will require that AI be used to maintain profitability.
Those who are predicting unemployment are correct. It doesn’t require immediate job replacement, a reduction in the demand of trade labor will be enough to further the demand for AI. Remember, the Great Depression had only around 20% unemployment. And they didn’t have nearly the amount of household debt we currently have nor the devaluation of the dollar. To ignore the macroeconomic aspects and implications is foolishness. Or ignorance.
If even a marginal amount of white collar jobs are removed that means trade jobs are also reduced because the disposable income isn’t there for custom homes and the resultant infrastructure. AI doesn’t have to take your job for you to be affected - it only has to reduce the disposable income of one’s customers and the investment ROI of corporate investors to make a large impact on the trades. Why no one can look beyond the horizon to see this is beyond me.
But there is another aspect to this: AI doesn’t have to take YOUR job - your industry can taper off because AI reduces the NEED for your job because there isn’t demand for it. Everyone is talking about jobs in therms of the current capitalist environment; that’s a double edged sword. Even if AI doesn’t affect you directly it will affect you indirectly due to the reduced income of customers and demand. This is coming from someone who is involved with the integration of AI into autonomous systems. You are not insulated, and you are only looking at immediate impacts.
Regarding machine shops and welding: that technology is already in place and being sold into the market. As the tech improves those jobs will be impacted. This is because margins will be squeezed and the needs of the company will require that AI be used to maintain profitability.
Those who are predicting unemployment are correct. It doesn’t require immediate job replacement, a reduction in the demand of trade labor will be enough to further the demand for AI. Remember, the Great Depression had only around 20% unemployment. And they didn’t have nearly the amount of household debt we currently have nor the devaluation of the dollar. To ignore the macroeconomic aspects and implications is foolishness. Or ignorance.
Not even close to survivable. Another full scale Carrington event will zorch 50 ton transformers and knock planes out of the sky. AI will have zero chance of surviving because there I’ll be no electricity!
Sirhr
Region is going to have a lot to do with it also. I'm my region they're not building data centers. Most of the electrical work I do is so people can eat. I'm not worried in the slightest.
I do think it'll thin the stupid out of every job market. And people will need to learn how to actually be a good worker to maintain a job anywhere shortly.
Not even a little bit. Anything important has safeguards, and there will be nothing but a small blip in the news.
The energy of the actual 1859 Carrington event would fry out massive numbers of systems. It’s been war games by DoD and insurance companies for a number of years.
Carrington Event - Wikipedia
We have not had a direct hit at that level since 1859. When the energy was enough to cause telegraph lines to burn and start wildfires.
There may be safeguards at a certain level. But they won’t be enough.
Sirhr
The energy of the actual 1859 Carrington event would fry out massive numbers of systems. It’s been war games by DoD and insurance companies for a number of years.
Carrington Event - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
We have not had a direct hit at that level since 1859. When the energy was enough to cause telegraph lines to burn and start wildfires.
There may be safeguards at a certain level. But they won’t be enough.
Sirhr
Things are different now. But I'm not going to spend hours explaining.
There's always fear mongering because they're trying to justify their existence.
They weren't here either, until they were. This is rural Alabama, and until Meta showed up, their "site" was several hundred acres of pasture filled with cattle. Same for the Hyundai plant across the road, but they've been there 20 years now.
Yep. You should see the massive "ponds" they've built around the site. They're currently still dry, but my first thought on seeing them was they're planning on having to do a LOT of cooling. Operational date is probably still a long way off, but it is a HUGE construction project, and running full-tilt every day.
Please do explain? If am wrong, I’d like to know it so I can rest easy that the power and IT systems are protected.
Are things shielded? Will power companies simply take things off line? Are our systems inherently more robust than copper lines on glass insulators hooked to lead acid batteries? Are there breakers and disconnects that can protect from generation source through high-voltage through last mile?
Seriously (and without breaching any security or secrecy about these systems) I’d love to know how the failsafes work! Thanks in advance!
Cheers, Sirhr
Edit: it also just occurred to me to ask what is the difference between an EMP generated by a high altitude nuclear detonation and the solar MCE events that are raising concerns? Are we shielded from both with faiksages and procedures? Are they different forms of “energy” in that one can be defended against (CME) and the other cannot (EMP) or are concerns about EMP also moot due to the robustness of the whole “system?” Again, generally interested in knowing the facts!
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There's population centers and central locations across the country. Both big considerations when setting up data centers.
I live in the middle of nowhere in a place with very low population density. Not exactly a smart place to put a data center that needs a ton of infrastructure.
Might not be as far out as you think ... they already have robots that can walk and dance like Michael Jackson and do a lot of other tasks. Training it to pick up a shovel and hammer might not be out of the realm of possibility.
Tell me that this thing couldn't learn to do construction in the next 5 years if that was their goal...
Besides, computers will already be controlling all of the resources such as power and water distribution to all of the houses and buildings.
Do some googling.
I've worked on WAPA sites, but no idea what is public vs proprietary knowledge.
They've been worried about EMP disruption longer than you've known it existed.
Telegraph lines were tiny bare conductors hooked straight to a machine. Completely different in terms of electric isolation.
As far as IT, with most of it being fiber, glass isn't going to be affected. Metal buildings with grounding are going to protect equipment inside.
Well, where he is talking about is Montgomery AL so there is certainly some infrastructure nearby and more was created specifically for the Hyundai plant nearby. So while it may be rural AL there is certainly stuff there, infrastructure-wise. It’s not like middle of nowhere Wyoming.
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