The real bargain hunting is going to be the third quarter of 2023....... When no one has any disposable income.
- Thread starter pmclaine
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I made good money off from that.Quite a party last evening... They all got drunk and left happy... After awakening with a hang over and stumbling out the door to go to work... They met reality head on... LOL
I dumped yesterday and buying some back today.
Yes, been there, done that..... If I could have done that just 51% of the time I would be a billionaire. Enjoy the roller coaster ride, it will not go on forever...
Apple is having a 6% off sale today on their stock.
Amazon down 30% over the last month.
Some good buys if you have cash.
Amazon down 30% over the last month.
Some good buys if you have cash.
What's that phrase? Never catch a falling knife.
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Here is the reason... As I bounce around looking at 10 - 12 market related sites.... Everything is in the RED.... Except the price of oil is in the Green.
98 out of the NASDAQ 100 are red....
For now, everything plays off of oil.. The next play will be off of food.
The best play is purchasing solid companies that will compound growth and earnings for decades to come.
Are you a fan of Peter Lynch ?
“You only need one or two good stocks a decade. You don't need a lot of action.”
Peter Lynch
Peter Lynch Quotes • Novel Investor
A collection of wise and witty Peter Lynch quotes worth discovering.
novelinvestor.com I would bet is far more likely that it’s from etf sell off.
Diversification typically leads to worse performance.Are you a fan of Peter Lynch ?
“You only need one or two good stocks a decade. You don't need a lot of action.”
Peter Lynch
Peter Lynch Quotes • Novel Investor
A collection of wise and witty Peter Lynch quotes worth discovering.
True.... That was an early lesson when I was Day Trading...... pick one or two and learn everything you can.
Well.
There are multibillion dollar companies that would disagree with that.
I’m guessing that makes you a Cuban fan.
There are multibillion dollar companies that would disagree with that.
I’m guessing that makes you a Cuban fan.
There is a large difference in investing in 10 companies vs 50. As well as having a portfolio of 25 companies where 4 companies hold 20% weighting vs. all having 4% weighting.
Updated portfolio allocation; always helps put things in perspective.
Excluding the ETFs (only held in retirement accounts) there are 21 companies with the top 5 holding 80% weight. Tesla 45%, Enphase 17%, Amazon 7%, Intel 7%, and PLTR 6%. Bottom
Excluding the ETFs (only held in retirement accounts) there are 21 companies with the top 5 holding 80% weight. Tesla 45%, Enphase 17%, Amazon 7%, Intel 7%, and PLTR 6%. Bottom
Apple has a PE ratio of 25. Microsoft is at 28. Both of those are under the PE for the S&P 500 index as a whole, but are rather high in historical terms. it's possible that investors feel this too pricey for mature companies as we head into a much different investing environment.
Going to be difficult to have a soft landing when things are in a free fall.
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Markets were rattled Thursday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that unit labor costs jumped 11.6% in the first quarter as productivity slumped. That reflects a 3.2% increase in hourly compensation on top of a 7.2% drop in productivity and was the largest four-quarter increase in unit labor costs since 1982. The productivity decline was the steepest in 75 years.
www.cnbc.com
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Markets were rattled Thursday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that unit labor costs jumped 11.6% in the first quarter as productivity slumped. That reflects a 3.2% increase in hourly compensation on top of a 7.2% drop in productivity and was the largest four-quarter increase in unit labor costs since 1982. The productivity decline was the steepest in 75 years.
Jobs growth should be strong in April but hot pace could slow in coming months as wages climb
The economy was expected to have added 400,000 jobs in April in a tight labor market, but economists say the number of new payrolls could soon start to slow.
Yeah. This would be interesting to know more about.Going to be difficult to have a soft landing when things are in a free fall.
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Markets were rattled Thursday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that unit labor costs jumped 11.6% in the first quarter as productivity slumped. That reflects a 3.2% increase in hourly compensation on top of a 7.2% drop in productivity and was the largest four-quarter increase in unit labor costs since 1982. The productivity decline was the steepest in 75 years.
Jobs growth should be strong in April but hot pace could slow in coming months as wages climb
The economy was expected to have added 400,000 jobs in April in a tight labor market, but economists say the number of new payrolls could soon start to slow.
That's great - they've been rewarded with a $2.5T market cap.
Maybe it'll look like a better bargain if that market cap ends up around $1T or so. Assuming their profit holds up, that would result in a PE ratio that is attractive by historical norms.
Going to be difficult to have a soft landing when things are in a free fall.
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Markets were rattled Thursday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that unit labor costs jumped 11.6% in the first quarter as productivity slumped. That reflects a 3.2% increase in hourly compensation on top of a 7.2% drop in productivity and was the largest four-quarter increase in unit labor costs since 1982. The productivity decline was the steepest in 75 years.
Jobs growth should be strong in April but hot pace could slow in coming months as wages climb
The economy was expected to have added 400,000 jobs in April in a tight labor market, but economists say the number of new payrolls could soon start to slow.
Can't say that I'm at all surprised with the increase in labor costs, but that productivity drop - WTF?!?
I doubt we see that in our lifetime. But if we do it will be while we are standing in soup lines.
I believe they have 5.5% growth while posting those numbers. Last quarter was the biggest in their history.
Rates are trending to 0%. There are no historical PE norms in this environment. We will be back at a 0-25bps federal rate soon enough.
Wage price spiral will bring in the (unofficial) minimum wage to $15. Those who will make the new $15 will be as broke as they are today.Going to be difficult to have a soft landing when things are in a free fall.
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Markets were rattled Thursday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that unit labor costs jumped 11.6% in the first quarter as productivity slumped. That reflects a 3.2% increase in hourly compensation on top of a 7.2% drop in productivity and was the largest four-quarter increase in unit labor costs since 1982. The productivity decline was the steepest in 75 years.
Jobs growth should be strong in April but hot pace could slow in coming months as wages climb
The economy was expected to have added 400,000 jobs in April in a tight labor market, but economists say the number of new payrolls could soon start to slow.
That would mean slipping all the way back to... October 2019 valuations. The S&P was right around 3000. Not exactly the 2nd coming of the Great Depression.
5.5% growth is pretty good! But over a six-month period last year, APPL was up 40%. It's OK for a company to be very good and yet overvalued.
It's what happens between now and this future ZIRP environment that will make life so interesting.
You saw that their supply chain is in a bit of flux right? China can crimp their business in a hurry and they are trying to flex into other areas of production, but that may take a while. https://news.abplive.com/technology...nds-production-at-two-china-factories-1528226
Looking like Asia and Europe are packing it in for the weekend. American traders will be out the door early today and heading for some relaxation after this week.
| Hang Seng | Hong Kong | -763.91 | -3.67% |
| Shanghai SE Composite Index | China | -66.20 | -2.16% |
| Australia ASX All Ordinaries | Australia | -171.60 | -2.25% |
| Taiwan TSEC 50 Index | Taiwan | -287.92 | -1.72% |
| CAC 40 | France | -88.32 | -1.39% |
The Under Armour short sellers have closed out and are heading for a long weekend at the beach. Down 23%
You have an interesting Market basket. I'm not sure how you measure / calculate resilience of a company in this changing environment. I'll make a very broad observation... The ones showing the most resilience going into the unknown are those that have brick and mortar / established production facilities and a well compensated work force..... Those that are marketing "Blue Sky" are taking a beating..... JMHOUpdated portfolio allocation; always helps put things in perspective.
Excluding the ETFs (only held in retirement accounts) there are 21 companies with the top 5 holding 80% weight. Tesla 45%, Enphase 17%, Amazon 7%, Intel 7%, and PLTR 6%. Bottom
You missed one = 2009.... LOL
The Black Swan
Back in: TSLA 865.
That is a loooooong ways off..............
That's why there were so much "Short Covering" before lunch time on the NYSE (pro's) and again near the close (armatures). Better to take a Friday beating than a Monday morning beating... LOL
okay, where do I put the $400k I have sitting in cash in my IRA?
In your gun safe... or ..... One of the government options with that low interest rate. Not sure what your options are.
Self-directed Fidelity IRA.
At this point it seems as if every day I don’t invest I get a 3% return.
P
Exactly..... Risk vs Reward..... That 3% is looking good.
One opinion of why there is so much volatility:
Bursting Bubble/Mania Watch:
May 5 – Bloomberg (Lu Wang and Elaine Chen): “A common warning on Wall Street for a decade is that trading desks have been overrun by people who are too young to know what it’s like to navigate a Federal Reserve tightening cycle. They’re finding out now. In markets, there’s turbulence, then there’s whatever you call the last two days, when a 900-point Dow rally was followed 12 hours later by a 1,000-point decline. Hundreds of billions of dollars of value are conjured and incinerated across assets in the space of a day lately, a stark reversal from the straight-up trajectory of the post-pandemic era. Where once every dip was bought, now every bounce is sold. Thursday was only the fourth day in 20 years in which stocks and bonds each posted 2%-plus declines…”
Bursting Bubble/Mania Watch:
May 5 – Bloomberg (Lu Wang and Elaine Chen): “A common warning on Wall Street for a decade is that trading desks have been overrun by people who are too young to know what it’s like to navigate a Federal Reserve tightening cycle. They’re finding out now. In markets, there’s turbulence, then there’s whatever you call the last two days, when a 900-point Dow rally was followed 12 hours later by a 1,000-point decline. Hundreds of billions of dollars of value are conjured and incinerated across assets in the space of a day lately, a stark reversal from the straight-up trajectory of the post-pandemic era. Where once every dip was bought, now every bounce is sold. Thursday was only the fourth day in 20 years in which stocks and bonds each posted 2%-plus declines…”
I'm in the same boat with an IRA mostly in cash. I have a limited set of choices with TIAA-CREF, mostly index funds and a few funds like Goldman International Opportunities fund. I started to get back in on Thursday, investing ~5% of the cash. I will add more in scale, and if/when the market gets down toward 3500 I'll be buying. Its impossible to know how long and how low it will go.
Just dropped 20k on I bonds. Paying 9.62% interest guaranteed for 6 months. Seemed hard to beat in this yoyo market.
There is some truth to this - not only for traders/brokers. There is a whole generation that has only known low interest rates, housing market wins, and rising stock market - will be interesting to see reality punch them in the nose with inflation, rising interest rates, and dropping market.
It was cash sitting in a savings account making nothing to be used for a pool next year. Might as well make a little something off of it.Well, at least that might keep up with inflation
To over simplify -
Laws of Nature / survival of the fittest........... A state of fitness comes in many different shapes and forms. Having some sort of sixth sense of what the near future will bring is one form of fitness that is difficult to cultivate in this environment.
Almost seeing it go according to plan.
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