Last I checked, LICY had a fairly decent cash run way. Reduction in their CAPEX will extend that.
- Thread starter pmclaine
- Start date
So wait - Wall Street is telling us that we're not going to see 50% CAGR from here to eternity? We knew that already when Tesla failed to build several new assembly plants each year for the past few years, and we're seeing further evidence with the investment "pause" by Ford and GM (to its credit, Stellantis never really bought in). We're still waiting to see what VW does, but my guess is that its much-ballyhooed $200 billion investment over the next five years turns into something far less significant.
"Yet Tesla's auto margins are materially below that of internal combustion (ICE) products."
No kidding. Most industry insiders have known this for years, but the Tesla bulls couldn't accept the fact that the company's apparent profitability advantage is due almost entirely to its direct-to-consumer business model (traditional dealerships "earn" >50% of the total profit in the sale of a motor vehicle) and emission credits, and not gross manufacturing margin. Oh look. Another one of my friends recently bought a Tesla.
“ I bought it used and 100% recommend it. It’s stiff so if you live in New Orleans it might not be a good option. I was visiting a few weeks back and boy I was bouncing everywhere! lol. But it’s the best car i have ever had!!and I’m not saying that because I’m still on a high on having a new car. I bought mine on Facebook and it was a great experience i didn’t deal with all the dealership fees. If you have any questions feel free to keep reaching out.”
The young people have caught a good ride on the wave. We will find out how much of that money they can hold on to.
NEW YORK, Oct 23 (Reuters) - \Money managers in the United States have closed funds with sustainability mandates faster than they opened new ones over the past three months as investor appetite waned for the asset class overall, data firm Morningstar said on Monday.
Investment products with a declared aim to promote ethically responsible practices, from cutting greenhouse gas emissions to increasing workplace diversity, have lost their lustre in the U.S. since a 2021 boom, as regulators scrutinised how they were marketed and Republican politicians alleged industries were being boycotted to the detriment of retirees' savings.
"For the first time in recent history, sustainable fund departures outpaced arrivals" in the three months September, Chicago-based researcher Alyssa Stankiewicz wrote. Three new funds were launched while thirteen closed in this category. One existing fund took on the "sustainable" label and four other funds moved away from that mandate.
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www.reuters.com
NEW YORK, Oct 23 (Reuters) - \Money managers in the United States have closed funds with sustainability mandates faster than they opened new ones over the past three months as investor appetite waned for the asset class overall, data firm Morningstar said on Monday.
Investment products with a declared aim to promote ethically responsible practices, from cutting greenhouse gas emissions to increasing workplace diversity, have lost their lustre in the U.S. since a 2021 boom, as regulators scrutinised how they were marketed and Republican politicians alleged industries were being boycotted to the detriment of retirees' savings.
"For the first time in recent history, sustainable fund departures outpaced arrivals" in the three months September, Chicago-based researcher Alyssa Stankiewicz wrote. Three new funds were launched while thirteen closed in this category. One existing fund took on the "sustainable" label and four other funds moved away from that mandate.
ESG fund closures in US outpace launches for first time since 2020 - Morningstar
\Money managers in the United States have closed funds with sustainability mandates faster than they opened new ones over the past three months as investor appetite waned for the asset class overall, data firm Morningstar said on Monday.
www.reuters.com Wallstreet Breakfast:
Wild swings continue to envelop the bond market, with two notable names in the industry making fresh calls on the sector. The pairs' statements also continue to come hours apart from each other, as they did on Aug. 3, when they both became growling bond bears and added to the pressure on long-term Treasuries. Since then, the yield on the 10-year Treasury (US10Y) jumped nearly an entire percentage point, climbing from 4.07% to top 5% yesterday, while the 30-year Treasury (US30Y) went from 4.16% to a high of 5.15% in just under two months.
Old tweets
Bill Ackman: "If long-term inflation is 3% instead of 2% and history holds, then we could see the 30-year T yield = 3% + 0.5% (the real rate) + 2% (term premium) or 5.5%, and it can happen soon. There are many times in history where the bond market reprices the long end of the curve in a matter of weeks, and this seems like one of those times."
Bill Gross: "10 yr yields? Overall bearish"
New outlook
Bill Ackman: "We covered our bond short. There is too much risk in the world to remain short bonds at current long-term rates. The economy is slowing faster than recent data suggests."
Bill Gross: "Regional bank carnage and recent rise in auto delinquencies to long-term historical highs indicate U.S. economy slowing significantly. Recession in 4th quarter. On bonds. Invest in the curve. Various combinations 2/10, 2/5. Should go positive before year end. I’m buying SFR h5 (SOFR futures). 'Higher for longer' is yesterday's mantra."
Remember, the last time rates were this high was pre-2008, and it seems like the Bills now feel that the rout in Treasuries seen in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic has gone too far. Markets appeared to have adopted that view on Monday, with the yield on the US10Y sinking 20 bps to a low of 4.80%, but it is too soon to tell if that sentiment will hold. Term premium is the word on Wall Street, as well as regular investors that are looking at related bond ETFs, but there are many factors at play that can have impacts on benchmark yields. Among them are forecasts and actual economic data, debt sustainability, and geopolitical developments, with eyes tightly kept on the Federal Reserve and words from the officials on financial conditions.
Wild swings continue to envelop the bond market, with two notable names in the industry making fresh calls on the sector. The pairs' statements also continue to come hours apart from each other, as they did on Aug. 3, when they both became growling bond bears and added to the pressure on long-term Treasuries. Since then, the yield on the 10-year Treasury (US10Y) jumped nearly an entire percentage point, climbing from 4.07% to top 5% yesterday, while the 30-year Treasury (US30Y) went from 4.16% to a high of 5.15% in just under two months.
Old tweets
Bill Ackman: "If long-term inflation is 3% instead of 2% and history holds, then we could see the 30-year T yield = 3% + 0.5% (the real rate) + 2% (term premium) or 5.5%, and it can happen soon. There are many times in history where the bond market reprices the long end of the curve in a matter of weeks, and this seems like one of those times."
Bill Gross: "10 yr yields? Overall bearish"
New outlook
Bill Ackman: "We covered our bond short. There is too much risk in the world to remain short bonds at current long-term rates. The economy is slowing faster than recent data suggests."
Bill Gross: "Regional bank carnage and recent rise in auto delinquencies to long-term historical highs indicate U.S. economy slowing significantly. Recession in 4th quarter. On bonds. Invest in the curve. Various combinations 2/10, 2/5. Should go positive before year end. I’m buying SFR h5 (SOFR futures). 'Higher for longer' is yesterday's mantra."
Remember, the last time rates were this high was pre-2008, and it seems like the Bills now feel that the rout in Treasuries seen in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic has gone too far. Markets appeared to have adopted that view on Monday, with the yield on the US10Y sinking 20 bps to a low of 4.80%, but it is too soon to tell if that sentiment will hold. Term premium is the word on Wall Street, as well as regular investors that are looking at related bond ETFs, but there are many factors at play that can have impacts on benchmark yields. Among them are forecasts and actual economic data, debt sustainability, and geopolitical developments, with eyes tightly kept on the Federal Reserve and words from the officials on financial conditions.
Issue 89: Angry Lithium. The Rolling Stonks
- Elon Musk for the first time in a year mentioned lithium a total of *zero* times in last week’s
Tesla conference call, but otherwise painted a black picture: “I apologize if I’m perhaps more
paranoid than I should be…I have PTSD from 2009, big time. And in 2017 through 2019 were
not a picnic either…the auto industry is somewhat cyclic…people hesitate to buy a new car if
there’s uncertainty in the economy…car companies do very well in good economic times, and
they don’t do as well in tough economic times…people are reading about wars all over the
world. Buying a new car tends to not be front of mind…”
- I posted on X upon Liontown entering a trading halt last
week as brutally handsome Albemarle walked from terminally pretty Kathleen Valley: Western
Australia’s Li Fe in the Fast Lane. LTR’s AUD 376M equity placement at AUD1.80 represented a
harsh 35% discount to ALB’s $3 bid, but still a meaningful 20% premium to the $1.50 it was
trading before ALB’s bid was disclosed last March -- a not insignificant feat considering China
spot lithium prices have fallen since then more than 50% from $50 to $23/kg and LTR
announced last month its fifth capex increase in four years to AUD 951M.
- Liontown is building the spodumene world’s first underground mine, with mineralogy requiring
a whole of ore float. The company no doubt wants to avoid next year similar pain Core Lithium
endured after its start-up demonstrated worse-than-expected recoveries and was forced into
a deeply discounted equity raise this summer. Liontown’s total AUD 1.16B raise included a
sizable A$352m liquidity buffer to be prudent for a company of its size and to reflect an appropriate
capital structure to build the company.
- Elon Musk for the first time in a year mentioned lithium a total of *zero* times in last week’s
Tesla conference call, but otherwise painted a black picture: “I apologize if I’m perhaps more
paranoid than I should be…I have PTSD from 2009, big time. And in 2017 through 2019 were
not a picnic either…the auto industry is somewhat cyclic…people hesitate to buy a new car if
there’s uncertainty in the economy…car companies do very well in good economic times, and
they don’t do as well in tough economic times…people are reading about wars all over the
world. Buying a new car tends to not be front of mind…”
- I posted on X upon Liontown entering a trading halt last
week as brutally handsome Albemarle walked from terminally pretty Kathleen Valley: Western
Australia’s Li Fe in the Fast Lane. LTR’s AUD 376M equity placement at AUD1.80 represented a
harsh 35% discount to ALB’s $3 bid, but still a meaningful 20% premium to the $1.50 it was
trading before ALB’s bid was disclosed last March -- a not insignificant feat considering China
spot lithium prices have fallen since then more than 50% from $50 to $23/kg and LTR
announced last month its fifth capex increase in four years to AUD 951M.
- Liontown is building the spodumene world’s first underground mine, with mineralogy requiring
a whole of ore float. The company no doubt wants to avoid next year similar pain Core Lithium
endured after its start-up demonstrated worse-than-expected recoveries and was forced into
a deeply discounted equity raise this summer. Liontown’s total AUD 1.16B raise included a
sizable A$352m liquidity buffer to be prudent for a company of its size and to reflect an appropriate
capital structure to build the company.
Attachments
GM withdraws 2023 guidance as UAW strike costs soar
General Motors (GM.N) on Tuesday withdrew its 2023 profit outlook, blaming the rising costs of United Auto Workers strikes, and Chief Executive Mary Barra said the automaker will slow its electric vehicle strategy to put profits ahead of sales targets.
GM's third-quarter net income fell 7.3% to $3.06 billion, while revenue rose 5.4% to $44.1 billion. The adjusted earnings per share tracked by analysts were $2.28, ahead of Wall Street expectations and up from $2.25 a year ago because of the effect of share buybacks.
The UAW walkouts cost the company $200 million during the third quarter and $600 million so far in the fourth quarter, GM Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson said in a briefing with reporters.
Strike costs are running at $200 million a week, Jacobson said. He would not discuss the potential impact should UAW President Shawn Fain order new walkouts at GM's most profitable North American factories such as the Arlington, Texas, plant that builds Cadillac Escalades and Chevrolet Suburbans, or the Flint, Michigan, heavy-duty pickup assembly plant.
Barra said the automaker's is also slowing the launch of several EV models to cut their costs, and pulling back on EV product spending. GM is abandoning a goal of building 400,000 EVs from 2022 through mid-2024, Jacobson said. "We're just not going to be talking about the interim production goals," Jacobson said.
General Motors (GM.N) on Tuesday withdrew its 2023 profit outlook, blaming the rising costs of United Auto Workers strikes, and Chief Executive Mary Barra said the automaker will slow its electric vehicle strategy to put profits ahead of sales targets.
GM's third-quarter net income fell 7.3% to $3.06 billion, while revenue rose 5.4% to $44.1 billion. The adjusted earnings per share tracked by analysts were $2.28, ahead of Wall Street expectations and up from $2.25 a year ago because of the effect of share buybacks.
The UAW walkouts cost the company $200 million during the third quarter and $600 million so far in the fourth quarter, GM Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson said in a briefing with reporters.
Strike costs are running at $200 million a week, Jacobson said. He would not discuss the potential impact should UAW President Shawn Fain order new walkouts at GM's most profitable North American factories such as the Arlington, Texas, plant that builds Cadillac Escalades and Chevrolet Suburbans, or the Flint, Michigan, heavy-duty pickup assembly plant.
Barra said the automaker's is also slowing the launch of several EV models to cut their costs, and pulling back on EV product spending. GM is abandoning a goal of building 400,000 EVs from 2022 through mid-2024, Jacobson said. "We're just not going to be talking about the interim production goals," Jacobson said.
Automakers need to move to "right to work" states and leave the Rust Belt - certainly not invest anymore in the Rust Belt. Shutter all their car plants for rest of 2023.GM withdraws 2023 guidance as UAW strike costs soar
General Motors (GM.N) on Tuesday withdrew its 2023 profit outlook, blaming the rising costs of United Auto Workers strikes, and Chief Executive Mary Barra said the automaker will slow its electric vehicle strategy to put profits ahead of sales targets.
GM's third-quarter net income fell 7.3% to $3.06 billion, while revenue rose 5.4% to $44.1 billion. The adjusted earnings per share tracked by analysts were $2.28, ahead of Wall Street expectations and up from $2.25 a year ago because of the effect of share buybacks.
The UAW walkouts cost the company $200 million during the third quarter and $600 million so far in the fourth quarter, GM Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson said in a briefing with reporters.
Strike costs are running at $200 million a week, Jacobson said. He would not discuss the potential impact should UAW President Shawn Fain order new walkouts at GM's most profitable North American factories such as the Arlington, Texas, plant that builds Cadillac Escalades and Chevrolet Suburbans, or the Flint, Michigan, heavy-duty pickup assembly plant.
Barra said the automaker's is also slowing the launch of several EV models to cut their costs, and pulling back on EV product spending. GM is abandoning a goal of building 400,000 EVs from 2022 through mid-2024, Jacobson said. "We're just not going to be talking about the interim production goals," Jacobson said.
Many American's are in denial of the "changing tide". Wall Street, Big Banks and a host of businesses in the "credit business" (debt) are well aware of this and are setting many bear traps along the path. This was done in the previous 3 - 4 recessions. Deja Vu
Auto's should be built in developing countries with natural resources to support that industry.
Abandoning the rust belt will leave another region that must be supported by productive regions. FED's will increase taxes on RTW states and roll those funds to pay to support the Rust Belt (food stamps, free medical, save the children, etc).
This is a challenge to the future leaders of America. A well educated person with a good work ethic should be put on the endangered species list.
The digging on this hole started long ago. The digging is continuing today. Until the digging stops, things will continue to get worse.
JMHO
Jamie is correct.... A warning to the wise.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Tuesday warned about the dangers of locking in an outlook about the economy, particularly considering the poor recent track record of central banks like the Federal Reserve.
In the latest of multiple warnings about what lies ahead from the head of the largest U.S. bank by assets, he cautioned that myriad factors playing out now make things even more difficult.
“Prepare for possibilities and probabilities, not calling one course of action, since I’ve never seen anyone call it,” Dimon said during a panel discussion at the Future Investment Initiative summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
“I want to point out the central banks 18 months ago were 100% dead wrong,” he added. “I would be quite cautious about what might happen next year.”
www.cnbc.com
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Tuesday warned about the dangers of locking in an outlook about the economy, particularly considering the poor recent track record of central banks like the Federal Reserve.
In the latest of multiple warnings about what lies ahead from the head of the largest U.S. bank by assets, he cautioned that myriad factors playing out now make things even more difficult.
“Prepare for possibilities and probabilities, not calling one course of action, since I’ve never seen anyone call it,” Dimon said during a panel discussion at the Future Investment Initiative summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
“I want to point out the central banks 18 months ago were 100% dead wrong,” he added. “I would be quite cautious about what might happen next year.”
Jamie Dimon rips central banks for being ‘100% dead wrong’ on economic forecasts
"Prepare for possibilities and probabilities, not calling one course of action, since I've never seen anyone call it," Dimon said in Saudi Arabia.
So I was partially right, Glencore already owns 10%
A buying opportunity for a young man like you....
Or, buy a Tesla
Or, buy a house for that new wife.
Decisions, decisions, decisions
Some times I'm glad I am old.
If we go below $1.00 I will throw a few more nickles in on this bet.
Toyota Exec: "EVs currently don’t make sense in countries like Australia, where the majority of electricity continues to come from coal-fired power stations," said Sean Hanley, Toyota Australia VP of sales.
He continued saying: “Right now, hybrid-electric vehicles are a better fit than BEVs for most consumers; They are more affordable and don’t require charging infrastructure. They’re cars for the masses, not for the few. he told Australian journalists."
The Model Y is the best selling overall car or SUV in Australia.
He continued saying: “Right now, hybrid-electric vehicles are a better fit than BEVs for most consumers; They are more affordable and don’t require charging infrastructure. They’re cars for the masses, not for the few. he told Australian journalists."
The Model Y is the best selling overall car or SUV in Australia.
I had a unique job where I traveled to Europe, Australia, and Central America looking at their heavy industries. We (large US heavy industry company) were looking for Innovation ideas. We immediately learned that Europe, Australia, and Central America made "business" decisions based on their national, state, and local regulations/laws. These "business decisions" defied all normal business common sense but were the "right thing to do" based on government regulations and subsidies. Example - Europe pushed diesel as the automotive fuel of choice for decades then suddenly woke up to the particulate issues. Plants in Brazil forced to hire "x" number of employees even though the plants were highly automated. You may have noticed during COVID that Australia government is crazier than ours.Toyota Exec: "EVs currently don’t make sense in countries like Australia, where the majority of electricity continues to come from coal-fired power stations," said Sean Hanley, Toyota Australia VP of sales.
He continued saying: “Right now, hybrid-electric vehicles are a better fit than BEVs for most consumers; They are more affordable and don’t require charging infrastructure. They’re cars for the masses, not for the few. he told Australian journalists."
The Model Y is the best selling overall car or SUV in Australia.
The Model Y is the best selling overall car or SUV in Australia.
Tesla #1 And #2 Even As EV Dip Deepens In Australia - CleanTechnica
Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! August sales data shows ... [continued]
cleantechnica.com Individual model sales aside, total EV market penetration is around 8% so far this year - an interesting amount, but not something that fundamentally undermines the hypothesis that EVs may not be a great fit for the Australian market.
Can you help me understand why coal-fired power plants do not support further EV demand? Or is it something else?Tesla #1 And #2 Even As EV Dip Deepens In Australia - CleanTechnica
Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! August sales data shows ... [continued]
Individual model sales aside, total EV market penetration is around 8% so far this year - an interesting amount, but not something that fundamentally undermines the hypothesis that EVs may not be a great fit for the Australian market.
We love coal powered EVs.
Sincerely,
Wyoming
Sincerely,
Wyoming
Australia has serious electrical supply issues. Hard to support increased EVs and resulting electrical demand when they struggle to meet daily electrical supplies. Some of the issues are "green" demands and others are supply chain issues. There is a reason Mad Max was set in Australia.
A Country Garden official told Bloomberg last week that the developer would not be able to make all of its offshore payment obligations in a timely manner.
We had this talk. They need more battery powered coal equipment.Maybe they should throw more coal in the furnace.
Anyone else making money on $LICY today.
You thought a stock would fall 50% in a day and not rebound? A company valued at <$200M and which is 10% owned by a $60B+ company... which they paid $200M for.
I told you.... "You will make more money as a trader than an investor"..... Take the profit from the "Dead Cat Bounce" and put it towards that house.
Open for comments.
Today a Speaker of the House was elected. There was hardly a bobble in the markets.
Why ? What does the DC crowd know ? When congress gets back to work is the down trend going to continue ?
SPX for the past 2 months
Today a Speaker of the House was elected. There was hardly a bobble in the markets.
Why ? What does the DC crowd know ? When congress gets back to work is the down trend going to continue ?
SPX for the past 2 months
Market knows that the elected officials are meaningless - the "establishment" runs the country and world
One more CEO leaving the building.
Mercedes-Benz shares fall over 6% as profit falls; CFO bemoans ‘brutal’ EV pricing
Key Points
Ford's earnings will be out after the bell. Interested to see if they feel the pain GM and MB are reporting.
Key Points
- Mercedes-Benz shares fell Thursday as it reported lower profit and revenue and highlighted pricing challenges in the electric vehicle space.
- Chief Financial Officer Harald Wilhelm described the EV market as “pretty brutal space,” Reuters reported.
- It comes as some traditional automakers sell EVs for less than regular combustion-engine cars — despite higher production costs.
Ford's earnings will be out after the bell. Interested to see if they feel the pain GM and MB are reporting.
The tide is changing. Getting from Point A to point B will become a necessity, not a fashion statement.
A good chance that in 2024 the best selling model will be "The Beater".
Enphase - Q3
digesting - revenues down as expected with negative Q4 outlook
I have purchases queued for market open
digesting - revenues down as expected with negative Q4 outlook
I have purchases queued for market open
Ford's got so many clusterfucks ongoing that the scheduled time for the earnings call will likely be insufficient.
GM is currently making over $1 billion/month building ICE pickups and SUVs, despite the fact that their dealers take a 50% cut of the profits and there isn't a $10k stack of taxpayer money on the hood. The pain they're feeling in the short term is largely artificial. Longer-term, I do suspect there will be substantial downward pressure on pricing unless the permabulls are successful at getting 0% rates indefinitely.
Patience Grasshopper.
Watched a young deer hunter in a tree stand. Wanting to make his first kill shortly after day light. A nice little spike buck poked his head around a tree and the hunter dropped it. To his surprise a trophy 8 point buck nosed out and nudged the spike buck, then turned around and disappeared into the fog.
I am sure the price will likely go down further. But I am beyond happy to get in at the current level.
They are actively repurchasing 8% of the current market cap, the balance sheet remains strong, and will likely maintain FCF in Q4 or be damn near it. You take their revised earnings and annualize it, that's $1.4B in revenue. The stock is trading at 8x revenue in a difficult macro with the goal of retaining a high 40% margin vs. flooding the market to capture a smaller share of profit.
They are actively repurchasing 8% of the current market cap, the balance sheet remains strong, and will likely maintain FCF in Q4 or be damn near it. You take their revised earnings and annualize it, that's $1.4B in revenue. The stock is trading at 8x revenue in a difficult macro with the goal of retaining a high 40% margin vs. flooding the market to capture a smaller share of profit.
I cannot imagine buying new vehicles with the UAW wage increases and other inflationary costs factored in.
Labor at the OE assembly plant is not a substantial portion of the COGS on a $75,000 pickup, especially with the amount of assembly labor that's been pushed down to non-unionized suppliers over the past few decades.
Some articles out this morning continue to say "the economy is growing".
The economy is actually shrinking.
The only thing growing is "Inflation".
Notice in small lettering on the bottom of the charts and a few articles it states "Not allowing for inflation".
Year to year inflation in my household is running between 15% and 20%.
Government wants to focus on a can of beans going up 5% or 10 cents.
No reports of property taxes and home owners insurance going up 18% or about $1,000 more for this year in my household.
Smoke and mirrors..
As of 10:47AM EST, this is proving to be an accurate prediction.
OK - speculated a little on some ENPH. I focus on dividend paying stocks but I bottom feed occasionally.
Watch Jamie. A sharp guy who has "ridden the wave" and knows when to step off.
www.cnbc.com
JPMorgan Chase shares slip after bank says CEO Jamie Dimon is selling 1 million shares
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon will begin to sell 1 million shares of the bank he runs next year, the bank said.
Looking at my portfolio and the market - so obvious that 7 or so stocks are carrying the whole market. Many stocks/ETFs/etc. are at 52 week lows. But we are not in a recession, etc.
Yep - this might have been mentioned a few pages back. IMO this is not a healthy market.
Imagine all the incentives thrown at the EV market over the past several years, and this is still the outcome.
I had this exact conversation with my brother yesterday. Because most middle class North Americans have become fully convinced that their homes are a giant piggy bank, they will sacrifice everything else to maintain that illusion. Once the housing market implodes they will have nothing and be sad.
If knuckle dragger like me could see the BS as clearly as I have, there is no excuse for supposed professionals being surprised. Adults acting like toddlers.
