Stock Market

[Hobo Hilton]

"It's just business".

Very often higher costs on defense contracts can be passed onto US taxpayers, but under pressure from then-President Donald Trump, who was threatening to cancel the contract for the planes, Boeing agreed to a fixed price contract on the two new jets.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/25/business/air-force-one-boeing-loss/index.html

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Looking at my portfolio and the market - so obvious that 7 or so stocks are carrying the whole market. Many stocks/ETFs/etc. are at 52 week lows. But we are not in a recession, etc.

Big money is playing it by manipulating those "Index Funds"... they can get together and run up two or three stocks and keep the index up.
Only the code talkers know which 3 they will run up tomorrow.
There is no recession and inflation has been reeled in......

 

[Lightning8]

If knuckle dragger like me could see the BS as clearly as I have, there is no excuse for supposed professionals being surprised. Adults acting like toddlers.

The professionals are being subsidized aka "paid" by the government to go against all normal business models

 

[Emerson0311]

The professionals are being subsidized aka "paid" by the government to go against all normal business models

Yup. What about the electric bulls here?

 

[Lightning8]

Toyota kicking EVs while they are down. https://www.theepochtimes.com/artic...vcpSUfm+WUTbk0Mgpfo5FotrVoBiVoKivqoaiV7tQpQ==

 

[E. Bryant]

Toyota kicking EVs while they are down. https://www.theepochtimes.com/artic...vcpSUfm+WUTbk0Mgpfo5FotrVoBiVoKivqoaiV7tQpQ==

Akio Toyoda is going to have a long and satisfying I-told-you-so moment.

 

[S3th]

Akio Toyoda is going to have a long and satisfying I-told-you-so moment.

Whoever thinks EV adoption is a straight line is wrong. The trend is up; many peaks and troughs of growth to come.

The key data point to look at is, how many EV owners in the market for a new vehicle are looking at ICE.

 

[Graywolf.260]

OK - speculated a little on some ENPH. I focus on dividend paying stocks but I bottom feed occasionally.

I did the same, got some under 80 to put away and write covered calls on. Good luck to us all

 

[E. Bryant]

The key data point to look at is, how many EV owners in the market for a new vehicle are looking at ICE.

I'd also like to see how many EV owners would be willing to own only EVs in their garage.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

As volatility increases, a term to pay attention to is "speculative leverage".

 

[Lightning8]

I still say it feels like "2008"

 

[Hobo Hilton]

I still say it feels like "2008"

It's making a good start

 

[Hobo Hilton]

https://investors.li-cycle.com/news/news-details/2022/Li-Cycle-and-Glencore-Enter-into-Long-Term-Commercial-Agreements-and-Close-Glencore-200-Million-Investment-in-Li-Cycle/default.aspx

So I was partially right, Glencore already owns 10%

These two made the list of the bottom feeders.

 

[S3th]

View attachment 8260504
View attachment 8260505
These two made the list of the bottom feeders.

LiCY may have bottomed until earnings on 11/14.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

LiCY may have bottomed until earnings on 11/14.

Keep your powder dry, Trader Joe

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Another leading indicator:

Oct 31 (Reuters) - Caterpillar (CAT.N) reported a double-digit rise in profit on Tuesday, beating Wall Street estimates on solid construction equipment sales in North America, but its shares slid in early trading on signs of slowing machinery demand.
The Texas-based manufacturer's shares fell as much as 6.3% as dealer inventories rose for the third-consecutive quarter at the same time Caterpillar's order backlog shrunk, indicating that equipment demand may have peaked.

Caterpillar shares fall on equipment demand concerns despite earnings beat

Caterpillar reported a double-digit rise in profit on Tuesday, beating Wall Street estimates on solid construction equipment sales in North America, but its shares slid in early trading on signs of slowing machinery demand.

www.reuters.com

 

[S3th]

A simple and transparent way management can determine when it is an opportunistic time to commence a share buyback is simply by looking at the stock price's current % deviation from its 200-day moving average. Enphase's share repurchase will prove to be very accretive. Additionally, following a 200 DMA (or 50 DMA in my case) has shown to be a prudent method of portfolio management.

 

[S3th]

There is an extraordinary story to be told when you purchase shares with free cash flow and a growing financial outlook. When you don't, you end up like RAYTHEON. A blistering $20B+ in share repurchases over the last 10 years with near no share price appreciation and staggeringly flat financials.

12/31/13: $56.6B in revenue, $5.7B in net income, 15% operating margin, operating cash flow per share $2.65, free cash flow per share $2.08
09/30/23: $67.1B in revenue, $3.2B in net income, 5% operating margin, operating cash flow per share $2.23, free cash flow per share $1.89

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Yep - this might have been mentioned a few pages back. IMO this is not a healthy market.

We are in agreement.

• Wednesday, September 22, 2021
  
  1. 12:25 PM ET
     
     Li-Cycle started at buy with $15 stock price target at UBS MarketWatch

 

[S3th]

LiCycle is easy to understand. It’s lithium and black mass pricing plus review/cancellation of a major project.

 

[S3th]

Li-Cycle Adopts Limited Duration Shareholder Rights Plan

Li-Cycle announced that its Board of Directors (the “Board”) has adopted a limited duration shareholder rights plan (the “Rights Plan”).

li-cycle.com

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Li-Cycle Adopts Limited Duration Shareholder Rights Plan

Li-Cycle announced that its Board of Directors (the “Board”) has adopted a limited duration shareholder rights plan (the “Rights Plan”).

li-cycle.com

Poison Pill strategy.

Poison Pill: A Defense Strategy and Shareholder Rights Plan

The poison pill is a tactic public companies sometimes use to deter a hostile takeover.

www.investopedia.com

 

[S3th]

yup

 

[Hobo Hilton]

yup

I'll just throw this out for discussion. What if a group makes a half decent offer to take this company private ?
Not just LICY but any of the other's that are hitting bottom.
I ask because a company Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP) bought a large tract of land near my place a few years back with big plans to build a plant. Cashed in a lot of credits, grants, etc. Last year they finally put in a double wide office trailer but it has sat vacant for almost 18 months. No activity on the property.

Tonix Pharmaceuticals buys 44 acres in Hamilton, plans vaccine production facility

parsonsbehle.com

 

[E. Bryant]

There is an extraordinary story to be told when you purchase shares with free cash flow and a growing financial outlook. When you don't, you end up like RAYTHEON. A blistering $20B+ in share repurchases over the last 10 years with near no share price appreciation and staggeringly flat financials.

See also GM, Boeing, etc.

What's impressive is that RTX is trading at a PE of about 38x, so knock that down to a reasonable PE in a 5% annual ROR and it looks even shittier. Pretty sad for a company that sucks on the government teat.

 

[S3th]

I'll just throw this out for discussion. What if a group makes a half decent offer to take this company private ?
Not just LICY but any of the other's that are hitting bottom.
I ask because a company Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP) bought a large tract of land near my place a few years back with big plans to build a plant. Cashed in a lot of credits, grants, etc. Last year they finally put in a double wide office trailer but it has sat vacant for almost 18 months. No activity on the property.

Tonix Pharmaceuticals buys 44 acres in Hamilton, plans vaccine production facility

parsonsbehle.com

The fact that LiCY has adopted a psn pill makes me believe they have secured financing or some other arrangement. (or that their cash runway is still significantly long). I am fine if someone wants to come purchase them, I am sure the offer will have to be north of $1B.

 

[S3th]

ENPH sold off after hours on terrible SolarEdge's earnings... these are not the same. Enphase increased gross margins from 46% to 48% in Q3. SolarEdge decreased from 32% to 20%.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

ENPH sold off after hours on terrible SolarEdge's earnings... these are not the same. Enphase increased gross margins from 46% to 48% in Q3. SolarEdge decreased from 32% to 20%.

There are a lot of nervous investors and fund managers out there.
Not one of them has a crystal ball or is willing to put their money where their mouth is.
If you have a ton of money that is just laying around then follow Cramer's advice... LOL
His 3 picks for today have trended down for the past 5 months with a bounce today.

Cramer picks companies that stand out during earnings season

CNBC's Jim Cramer on Wednesday told investors which companies he thinks have distinguished themselves during earnings season.

www.cnbc.com

 

[S3th]

This market is stupid lol. I was hoping to purchase ENPH at $72 due to the silly sell-off on SEDG.

 

[S3th]

A drop in the 10Y Treasury is leading to benefits in long duration growth.

TSLA +5%
ENPH +5%
LICY +19%

 

[Hobo Hilton]

This market is stupid lol. I was hoping to purchase ENPH at $72 due to the silly sell-off on SEDG.

The "Market" is similar to "Mother Nature"...
Many valuable lessons to learn for those that pay attention and remain patient.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

A drop in the 10Y Treasury is leading to benefits in long duration growth.

TSLA +5%
ENPH +5%
LICY +19%

Only if you took profit, Trader Joe
These three have been swimming up stream for the past 6 months. It's the "trend".

 

[Graywolf.260]

ENPH sold off after hours on terrible SolarEdge's earnings... these are not the same. Enphase increased gross margins from 46% to 48% in Q3. SolarEdge decreased from 32% to 20%.

Yeah it was painful at the time but I bought more after hours yesterday.

 

[S3th]

You thought a stock would fall 50% in a day and not rebound? A company valued at <$200M and which is 10% owned by a $60B+ company... which they paid $200M for.

$LICY is up 45% on the week. Have a good weekend.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Other news: trimmed some Tesla and bought Enphase. Might share further insights later.

 

[E. Bryant]

Meanwhile at GM, we're learning that Mary Berra and Mark Reuss should be asked to clean out their desks and start preparing for the shareholder lawsuits:

Time’s running out for GM to get its EVs right — and billions of dollars are on the line

Delaying production of high-profile EVs and dropping a development program with Honda may be an acknowledgment of the problems. It's not a solution.

www.freep.com

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/03/technology/cruise-general-motors-self-driving-cars.html

Those two get paid $45 million/year for this sort of shitty decision-making. I could do a similarly poor job for half as much and the headlines would be far more amusing.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Worldwide

 

[Hobo Hilton]

One more smart CEO that will 'take the money and run" rather than ride the upcoming train wreck.

Whitney Wolfe Herd, founder and CEO of the dating app Bumble, is stepping down from her role at the helm of the company early next year.
Bumble requires women to make the first move with dating prospects, and Wolfe Herd founded the company in 2014 as a way to create an empowering and safe online dating space. She will be succeeded by Lidiane Jones, CEO of Salesforce’s cloud-based messaging platform Slack, on Jan. 2, 2024, according to a company release Monday.

Bumble founder and CEO to step down early next year, Slack chief executive to succeed her

Bumble founder and CEO Whitney Wolfe Herd to step down

www.cnbc.com

Whitney Wolfe Herd Net Worth

What is Whitney Wolfe Herd's net worth?

www.celebritynetworth.com

 

[Graywolf.260]

Sheep Creek – US Critical Metals

uscmcorp.com

Your neck of the woods Hobo?

 

[E. Bryant]

Oversupply of US debt leaves few takers for Treasuries

Issuance of $1tn-worth of government bonds in space of three months creates a glut as big buyers retreat

www.ft.com

Once it's time to monetize the debt, whomever's in charge at the time will get the blame, but this problem is now multi-generational.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Sheep Creek – US Critical Metals

uscmcorp.com

Your neck of the woods Hobo?

I have been following this. A somewhat remote area. Made a lot of news earlier this year.
Something like this could take years to develop . The EV (Go Green) has some uncertainty.
I don't know if that will be developed or not. South of me, about 30 miles away.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

LOL

“This is the ultimate answer for the battery-electric truck. No one else has got anything else like it,” Kuniskis told reporters during an event. “This is going to be a game changer for battery-electric trucks.”

Stellantis' new Ram pickup is an EV — with a gas-powered generator in case the battery runs out

The new Ram pickup can operate as an EV until the battery dies and an onboard generator — powered by a 3.6-liter V6 engine — kicks on to power the vehicle.

www.cnbc.com

 

[S3th]

LOL

“This is the ultimate answer for the battery-electric truck. No one else has got anything else like it,” Kuniskis told reporters during an event. “This is going to be a game changer for battery-electric trucks.”

Stellantis' new Ram pickup is an EV — with a gas-powered generator in case the battery runs out

The new Ram pickup can operate as an EV until the battery dies and an onboard generator — powered by a 3.6-liter V6 engine — kicks on to power the vehicle.

www.cnbc.com

“The Ramcharger is not a PHEV,” Kuniskis said. “It’s a battery-electric truck with its own onboard, high-speed charger.”

Uhhh... initial thought is that this going to quickly ruin the battery lol. The 145-mile range battery will be drained to zero then a generator will kick on to charge the battery while also discharging through the battery to power the vehicle. Who would buy this over a hybrid? Guarantee that this will be significantly more expensive than hybrids currently on the market.

 

[Lightning8]

Tesla teasing a $25kish model out of their German factory again. That would be significant.

 

[NoDopes]

The 145-mile range battery will be drained to zero then a generator will kick on to charge the battery while also discharging through the battery to power the vehicle.

It's more likely to send power directly to the motors and only sending excess to charge battery.

 

[Hobo Hilton]

Tesla teasing a $25kish model out of their German factory again. That would be significant.

Perhaps rent one for a few days before buying.

Tesla car rentals in Los Angeles from $32/day | KAYAK

Looking to rent a Tesla in Los Angeles? Latest prices: Tesla Model Y $59/day, Tesla Model X $45/day, Tesla Model S $36/day. Find Los Angeles Tesla rental car deals on KAYAK now.

www.kayak.com

 

[Lightning8]

Perhaps rent one for a few days before buying.

Tesla car rentals in Los Angeles from $32/day | KAYAK

Looking to rent a Tesla in Los Angeles? Latest prices: Tesla Model Y $59/day, Tesla Model X $45/day, Tesla Model S $36/day. Find Los Angeles Tesla rental car deals on KAYAK now.

www.kayak.com

Long way from rural Georgia. I am fine with my ICE pickups and Outback. But game changer for Tesla stock if they can sell at $25kish

 

[E. Bryant]

“The Ramcharger is not a PHEV,” Kuniskis said. “It’s a battery-electric truck with its own onboard, high-speed charger.”

Uhhh... initial thought is that this going to quickly ruin the battery lol. The 145-mile range battery will be drained to zero then a generator will kick on to charge the battery while also discharging through the battery to power the vehicle. Who would buy this over a hybrid? Guarantee that this will be significantly more expensive than hybrids currently on the market.

This thing is most certainly a PHEV - a series hybrid, to be exact. It's the sort of thing that sounded good 20-25 years ago, before Toyota demonstrated the superiority of the "power split" architecture that was later pretty much perfected by GM in the form of the Two Mode hybrid powertrain for pickups and large SUVs, and the Voltec powertrain in the Volt which could function as a series or parallel hybrid depending upon conditions. This shit worked really well, but didn't fit the narrative of eliminating liquid hydrocarbon fuels.

It makes way more sense to drain the battery on a daily basis than it does to carry around excessive pack capacity that's only accessed on occasion; the techniques for managing pack life under such conditions are fairly well understood nowadays (if you doubt this to be the case, then don't hold out much hope for something like the Tesla Semi). On a related note, Toyota and GM went back and forth on battery sizing and daily depth-of-discharge for about a decade. Toyota favored something with a range of around 10 miles so that the pack would be completely discharged by the majority of commuters; GM preferred a pack with 40ish miles range to capture the driving distance of most commuters. Judging by the spec of the latest Prius Prime PHEV, GM won that argument.

 

[S3th]

I do not believe there is a single manufacturer of an electric vehicle that recommends you deplete your battery to 0%. Most suggest maintaining a state of charge of no less than 10%-20%. Maybe they are using a different battery chemistry for this purpose or their "0%" is not a true 0%.

 

[S3th]

It's more likely to send power directly to the motors and only sending excess to charge battery.

“There’s no connection between the engine and the wheels,” he said. “The gas generator is only there to charge the battery.”