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Is Something Happening with Nord Stream 1 and 2 under the Baltic Sea?

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VERY unlikely.

Turning back on the pipelines was Russia's big chip to use in trying to get a good deal on a negotiated end to the war as well as keeping their own economy going.

Have to agree.

This is Cortez-level burning of ships event.

The water at these locations is 100 to 200 feet deep, and looking at the map of the locations, exactly outside territorial waters.

With right gear and training most any experience diver/ ROV operator of a nation-state could do this.

For the US to do it, due to our agreements, we'd need permission from one of the governments around the Baltic to travel through them to get to this point. Doing it without discussion would be a very bad thing.

The only two nation states I can see with something to gain long term are Poland and China.
 
True but also they will have to deal with all the sediment that was carried along with the water intrusion. Much more difficult to remove and far more damaging to the equipment which moves the gas. All of this to promote a proxy war with Russia.

No kidding.

Don't forget the fucking seawater corroding everything.
 

40K explosives registers a 3.9 earthquake. The two blasts associated with the gas lines were 1.8, and 2.3. I don't think the explosives to resulting earthquake measurement is linear so I seriously doubt there's a way to use a single data point to extrapolate the probability of charge size, but I think we can assume quite confidently that the explosion was more than just a few pounds of explosives. That much gas coming to the surface, causing that my disruption, it was a pretty big boom that likely removed a large section of pipe, that's not going to be easy t patch up.

Branden
 
Have to agree.

This is Cortez-level burning of ships event.

The water at these locations is 100 to 200 feet deep, and looking at the map of the locations, exactly outside territorial waters.

With right gear and training most any experience diver/ ROV operator of a nation-state could do this.

For the US to do it, due to our agreements, we'd need permission from one of the governments around the Baltic to travel through them to get to this point. Doing it without discussion would be a very bad thing.

The only two nation states I can see with something to gain long term are Poland and China.

And disabling of the tracking by the US?
 

"The Farewell Dossier included a shopping list of future Soviet priorities. In January 1982, Weiss said he proposed to Casey a program to slip the Soviets technology that would work for a while, then fail. Reed said the CIA "would add 'extra ingredients' to the software and hardware on the KGB's shopping list."

East minus West = Zero.

Kind of like the old Indian trick of sabotaging your own cache. Stick some dog liver in there among the rest of the meat. LOL.
 

40K explosives registers a 3.9 earthquake. The two blasts associated with the gas lines were 1.8, and 2.3. I don't think the explosives to resulting earthquake measurement is linear so I seriously doubt there's a way to use a single data point to extrapolate the probability of charge size, but I think we can assume quite confidently that the explosion was more than just a few pounds of explosives.
Branden

Orders of ten magnitude. 40K is 3.9 so 4K is a 2.9 and then 400 is 1.9. So 500 pounds.
 
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True but also they will have to deal with all the sediment that was carried along with the water intrusion. Much more difficult to remove and far more damaging to the equipment which moves the gas. All of this to promote a proxy war with Russia.
I have done it lots of times in the Gulf. Sand, muck, crabs etc come out. It helps if they have liquid receiving and separation facilities at the receiving end. If you have to bring in temporary equipment, that is a pain. They will probably have to pig it several times. You have to be very careful regulating pressure and have experienced P/L operations people to run the pig. It can go south very fast. It would help to know if there are intermediate platforms along the route. If so, it cuts the pigging distance down.

This will not be a weekend fix.
 
For the US to do it, due to our agreements, we'd need permission from one of the governments around the Baltic to travel through them to get to this point. Doing it without discussion would be a very bad thing.
Just you actually type that with a straight face?
The two blasts associated with the gas lines were 1.8, and 2.3. I don't think the explosives to resulting earthquake measurement is linear so I seriously doubt there's a way to use a single data point to extrapolate the probability of charge size, but I think we can assume quite confidently that the explosion was more than just a few pounds of explosives.
But, how do you accommodate the fact that the item getting blown up was full of explosive gas?
 
But, how do you accommodate the fact that the item getting blown up was full of explosive gas?
Underwater doesn’t need a direct hit to be successful. Probably wasn’t super close and sheared the pipes more than anything
 
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But, how do you accommodate the fact that the item getting blown up was full of explosive gas?
Natural Gas by itself isn't explosive. It requires oxygen, and there's no oxygen in that pipe with the gas. Once it bubbles to the surface and gets exposed to the air, then there's the possibility of fire, but definitely not a risk 200' under water.

Branden
 
"The Farewell Dossier included a shopping list of future Soviet priorities. In January 1982, Weiss said he proposed to Casey a program to slip the Soviets technology that would work for a while, then fail. Reed said the CIA "would add 'extra ingredients' to the software and hardware on the KGB's shopping list."

East minus West = Zero.

Kind of like the old Indian trick of sabotaging your own cache. Stick some dog liver in there among the rest of the meat. LOL.
Fun story... while the British and French were building the Concord SST... the Sovs were trying to build their own SST. MI6 realized that the Soviets had Aerospatiele, the French agency, totally compromised and were trying to build their own SST, nicknamed "Concordski." So the Brits slipped in a 'fake' recipe for tire rubber for the Concord into the French Files, knowing it would be copied and sent to Moscow. The recipie created tires that were about as useful and rigid as chewing gum. The Soviets spent years and millons of rubles trying to make 'chewing gum' tires work on Concordski.

Before realizing they had been totally duped.

The Great Game is, indeed, a fun one. A Hall of Mirrors to quote Author Virgina Hall....

Sirhr
 
I guess they don't issue pillowcases and bars of soap in the Navy these days.
That would have been just the initial recourse in my unit (Marines).
Then it would escalate.....rapidly, if someone didn't get the "learnin's".
Nope, they issue body wash and those little poofy things women use for washing their front butt.

Branden
 
A couple observations
I don't know but I been told....the C_A has their own navy, including a nuclear sub or two.

If the pipelines were shut down anyway, where is all that gas at the surface coming from? Surely by the time aircraft were dispatched to investigate the leaks the pressure inside the inactive pipeline would have dissipated? Unless there were already aircraft watching that particular area in anticipation of such an event? Or are they satellite pics? Just throwing this out there because I didn't see it covered here yet. Just stirring more speculation.
 
A couple observations
I don't know but I been told....the C_A has their own navy, including a nuclear sub or two.

If the pipelines were shut down anyway, where is all that gas at the surface coming from? Surely by the time aircraft were dispatched to investigate the leaks the pressure inside the inactive pipeline would have dissipated? Unless there were already aircraft watching that particular area in anticipation of such an event? Or are they satellite pics? Just throwing this out there because I didn't see it covered here yet. Just stirring more speculation.
Or they would have shut the valves.

Makes one wonder if the pipeline was still in use, secretly defying sanctions?
 
I'm being very sarcastic.....Frank needs to have a "sarcasm" font.

Branden
It's italics on some sites, Or ThEy TyPe LiKe ThIs but too much work there, but that's more of the tarded voice sarcasm in the second.

Edit- or /s forgot about that.
 
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Let's see what @jrhtx says. Is it cheaper to leave the pipeline pressurized instead of doing a full shut down even if no one is receiving on the other end?
You would think even if shut down they would want to leave pressure in it to mitigate any corrosion.
If the pipe was empty and the ocean cooled (like in winter) the interior would get condensation.
I'm no expert (by a long shot) but it makes sense that you would not want corrosion from the inside.
Never even thought about it till now....but a pipeline under 100 foot or meters...whatever...would be conducive to condensation, but what I am really uncertain about is if pressurized, does the gas offset the condensation ???
 
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You would think even if shut down they would want to leave pressure in it to mitigate any corrosion.
If the pipe was empty and the ocean cooled (like in winter) the interior would get condensation.
I'm no expert (by a long shot) but it makes sense that you would not want corrosion from the inside.
Never even thought about it till now....but a pipeline under 100 foot or meters...whatever...would be conducive to condensation, but what I am really uncertain about is if pressurized, does the gas offset the condensation ???
Even at those depths the temperature of the sea water isn't anywhere close enough to cause natural gas to start to condense. Even if they kept the pressure at 1000psi (69bar) it doesn't start to enter that liquid and vapor stage until about -100 degrees F. My numbers are approximate, within 15% error I believe, assuming that i'm reading charts right...it's been a while since i've been required to understand those types of things.

Those pipelines transport natural gas in it's gaseous state, because they wouldn't be able to keep LNG cool enough to keep it in it's liquid state without refrigeration along it's way. From what I read, the LNG transportation ships keep it at -260 F at 4psi...but they can have systems to keep it cold along the way.

I doubt that they would allow anything besides natural gas in that line. There's not going to be any oxygen in it, and nobody is going to go through the expense to fill several hundred miles of pipeline with an inert gas when there's already natural gas in it. My thoughts, the line was ruptured through some sort of explosive, and all the gas rising to the surface is because you have a pipe that's a little over a meter in diameter, 745 miles long, that is having a bunch of sea water filling it, and displacing all the gases that were in the line when it was breached. Those gases are less dense than the sea water around it, and it's going to seek lower density...which means it's going to float up. Assuming the entire length of nord stream 1 were filled with sea water, that's about 300 million gallons. Gonna take a bit for it to fill up, especially with it being like a 745 mile long bottle of gases that was opened on one end under water.

Now would someone please go out there and light that fucker up, I wanna see video of it.

Branden
 
Bah, that's too much work. No time for that nonsense, there's fuckery to spread.

Branden
Exactly but this isn't hard it's one click you lazy shit 😆

Let's go....Branden?
 
China has the biggest motivation to destroy the pipeline in my opinion. Make sure Europe is too busy with problems at home to be concerned about China's moves in the Pacific and the upcoming invasion of Taiwan. Biden and his administration have already outed themselves as cowards.

Rule #1 - countries don't have allies, they have interests.
 
Who's to say it wasn't Russia? The line was already closed, now Russia can blame others for the gas being shut off. They can say they want to turn the pipes back on, but can't because they've been sabotaged. Pretty convenient if you ask me.
Probably not, Putin was using those pipelines as a tool against Europe, so why destroy your own weapons/tools. He was holding energy over Europes head. Besides both Biden and Victoria Neuland threatened the pipelines prior to the invasion. The Biden administration basically said we would take them out if Putin invades, and Putin invaded, so we blew them up. As well it works out for all those fuckers now selling oil from Norway, and helps push the green agenda, oil bad, go by a Tesla. Besides it possibly kicking off a major retaliation it works out way more for the US than Russia. But it's fucked, and it's insane, and it's stupid, and it's reckless as hell.

This will not end well.
 
I'm sure there are folks that can interpret the data recorded and translate that to a TNT equivalency right? I know...i'm expecting too much from a world government that's actively trying to fuck us all.

Branden
This is near a tight passage in öresund, close to the danish island Bornholm on the Swedish southern coast. North of this, near Karlskrona, is a major swedish naval base. As such there will be very advanced submarine detection systems including seismic/vibration detection systems. You can be sure there is very accurate data on the event. Belief is that charges were placed long in advance by russian subs and/or or divers.
 
Probably not, Putin was using those pipelines as a tool against Europe, so why destroy your own weapons/tools. He was holding energy over Europes head. Besides both Biden and Victoria Neuland threatened the pipelines prior to the invasion. The Biden administration basically said we would take them out if Putin invades, and Putin invaded, so we blew them up. As well it works out for all those fuckers now selling oil from Norway, and helps push the green agenda, oil bad, go by a Tesla. Besides it possibly kicking off a major retaliation it works out way more for the US than Russia. But it's fucked, and it's insane, and it's stupid, and it's reckless as hell.

This will not end well.
At this point nobody here will touch Russian gas as soon as Germany gets its shit together. More worrying is the very exposed Norwegian oil production. The Russians just sent Norway a message - look what we are willing to do - you may be next.
 
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