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I'll Post This Here - Hornady's Podcast #50. I thought it was one of their best, but some reloaders might not like what they see....

And my point is it seems like a whole lot of gaslighting. I may have used the wrong example to get my point across but I will again state my point which is the accuracy numbers they use in there podcast dont match my experience.

But I can admit when Im wrong you all have converted me all the hard work i have put in is pointless. My hit percentage is because of my rifle not the fact that I suck. It will make my whole life easier when I lower my expectations, and the way they do load development is stupid easy so I should just do that too.

I dont have access to the applied ballistics software right now but if someone does id be intrested to see the difference in hit percentage between a 3/4 moa rifle and a 1 1/2 rifle at 600 with a 10 mph wind. Hornadys may have just single-handedly explained why Im not national champion.
You probably do suck, but that's a separate issue.

Saying your hard work has been pointless tells me your on the defensive. It's hard to learn in that mindset. They're saying don't let our ego blind us to the reality that a field match gun, shot positionaly (is that a word), & occasionally shot from a bench with a sloppy Ckye pod & rear bag won't shoot .3's all day. It shouldn't That's not our game (PRS was the context).

It was a good pod cast. They never said you have to shoot 20 round load development groups & I damn sure won't be. However when I get a load I like I am going to run 20 to true zero & have a come to Jesus reality check on my hit probability i.e. moa @20 rounds.

Ledzep aid he tomato stakes the barrel if it won't shoot reasonably tight in load development. That's kind of where I'm at too. He's surely gone through far more barrels than I have, but in my experience a good barrel isn't hard to find a load for. I'm not chasing my tail & burning components trying to make a turd shoot.

Sparkey's last question 3/4 vs 1-1/2moa could be night and day at 600y depends on target size.

I picked up on what I think is an important point that wasn't really brought to light in the podcast. It applies to my last two statements.
Caveat: This does not apply to Zero. No short cut there.

For Software hit probability purposes the ES of the group size for the half minute gun is .7" for the 3 shot group.
The 1 minute gun has a 3 shot group ES of 1.4" & requires a 30 shot group to achieve a group ES of .79 i.e. close equivalent predictive accuracy.

The graph used in the podcast is a little misleading since it's scaled to show at the same size. The 1 moa gun graph is condensed by over 100%, if it wasn't the group ES dispersion disparity would be a lot more obvious.

If your gun shoots 1 moa 3 shot groups tomato stake that POS.
1 moa 20 shot barrel is certainly workable. Problem is we all speak different languages when it comes to the moa of our rig.

The same data sets used below to show the value of high shot groups can be reversed in our favor.
So if I want to develop a load using 4 different projectiles & 4 different powders at multiple charge weights there's no need to burn out the barrel. I am about to do this for a 22GT.
Per stats below if I toss any 3 shot load over say .6 and short list anything shooting .4 or less for more testing. Anything that'll maintain a .4 avg 3 shot group, statistically should not exceed .72" for a 20 shot zero.

Another take away I hadn't realized before is that the group size ES is statistically worse for a 10 shot group than a 5.

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Carl Zant at Precision Rifle Blog already answered your hit percentage question:
https://precisionrifleblog.com/2015/04/15/how-much-does-group-size-matter/

Interestingly, Brian Litz has written some excellent material on how statistical analysis and sample size applies to shooting and load development. And he does have some trophies on the shelf!
Great Article.

He did mention one thing in passing, a good zero.

For me, three things matter more than all the rest. This assumes you already settled on a good reload or using factory ammo, it matters not.

The first is a really accurate zero, In working your zero this is the time to shoot 10 shots. Don't pay too much attention to group size or horizontal displacement. The point of a great zero is measuring the vertical very accurately, and then calculating a mean. That is so downrange there is a now huge level of confidence in the VERTICAL DROP you can feed to your calculator The rest then is how good you are reading the wind.

The second is using a chrono to establish your "mean" velocity. Forget about SD, etc. The 10 shot sample is not big enough to calculate SD. But accurate velocity readings also make the shot calculator work 100% better.

The third is the environmentals. Pressure, temp, etc.

With those three sets of numbers you know can feed any calculator and get really good ballistic drop numbers.

The most important one is the Zero, with a measured velocity coming in second. AND, you have to do that everytime you test a new load!

God only knows how many hours and ammo I've spent chasing my tail by not paying attention and focusing on the important things....
 
Yeah The Zero part is critical. I'm guilty of adjusting my zero based on several 5 shot groups.

One good habit I've started doing is to recheck my zero on the gun after it's fouled, and again after day 1 of a 2 day match or after a 1 day before cleaning.
Those damn Ace of Spades often happen after 85-90 rounds.
IMG_7395.jpg
 
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Whewfff... Jeez guys relax.

The point isn't that there is no difference between a true, no BS always 1/2 MOA rifle (20-30 shot string), and a 1 MOA rifle (same criteria). I don't think anyone is going to tell you that. The difference in hit probability between those two rifles in certain circumstances may be closer than you might think, but a better shooting rifle is always better shooting, and is a competitive advantage in terms of marksmanship competitions.

Got it. Noted.

What IS being said, is that you can do a powder ladder test with H4350 every 0.2gr 5x each from book min to book max, then you can do a seating depth test with 5x each every .005" from touching to .100" off the lands, and you can buy into the results of those tests and choose the "best" H4350 load from them... Or you can do an OCW test with 3x or 5x each, or you can do a Satterlee test with 1x each... and buy into the results you get from all of those.

OR....

You can jump them .030" off the lands, drop a grain from book max, and rock and roll.

Odds are if you do the latter, you're going to be in very similar performance territory to the wishy washy white-noise test you performed in the former. At which point you're talking the difference between a 0.76 MOA and a 0.68 MOA combo [I'd like to point out right here that you don't know-- because of statistics and your BS 5-shot groups in the former-- which one is which!]. And when you look into a hit probability distribution between a rifle that shoots 35 shots into 0.76 MOA, and another that shoots 35 shots into 0.68 MOA, you are going to require a LOT of shots over a lot of conditions to meaningfully perceive a difference-- if you ever even can. You are going to shoot a LOT of 0.2-0.5 MOA 5-shot groups.

That's the point. Skip the bullshit, get to shooting for real. If H4350 is giving you 1.3 MOA for 20 shots, shelve that shit and try Varget. If Hornady 109's never shoot better than 1.2 MOA for 20 shots in your barrel with 2 or 3 good powders, try Berger 105's Hybrids. If Hornady 109's, Berger 105's, and Sierra 107's all shoot over 1 MOA for 20 shots-- that's your beater practice barrel (or toss it). However, if 109's and H4350 shoot 20 shots into .69 (nice!) MOA right off the bat (like literally 20-30 rounds into the barrel's life), you might be just fine to run that load for a couple thousand rounds until you see significant problems with it.

Nobody is saying you can't find the absolute best-shooting combination-- all that's being said is that a 1, 3, 5, even 10 shot sample is skimpy on statistical relevance so if that's all you're doing your method is very susceptible to be lost in the noise. To conduct an exhaustive series of statistically viable tests to find a true sub-1/2 MOA combination is likely going to take you 200-600 rounds. If you want to do that, good on you. Is there application? Absolutely, ELR, BR, F-class...

As you can see though, even in BR there's a lot of 0.2-0.7 MOA groups, which is indicative of 0.5-1.0 MOA combinations until you finally catch the unlucky 5-shot group that's actually 1 MOA. When that happens, don't have a fucking melt down and "re-tune" everything. That's what is meant by have realistic expectations.
 
Their groups sizes are in the hundreds of rounds. I believe the measure they use is a statistic called CEP - Circle Error Probable.
Yes.

And like any use of stats with smaller samples there is a higher burden of margin.

When we open a crate of very expensive shells, sometimes the sample is just a few shots but then the performance requirement is very tight, fail that and you will be burning a larger sample to prove the batch.
 
Yeah The Zero part is critical. I'm guilty of adjusting my zero based on several 5 shot groups.

One good habit I've started doing is to recheck my zero on the gun after it's fouled, and again after day 1 of a 2 day match or after a 1 day before cleaning.
Those damn Ace of Spades often happen after 85-90 rounds.
View attachment 8026245
Did that one win?!?
 
How do they account for their exploding bullets?
You beat me to it! The only company that has a well-known reputation for bullets blowing up is Hornady. 225’s, 143x’s, 108’s and 75’s are great bullets until the jacket flies off enroute to the target.
 
I appreciate the info and statistics they provided in the podcast. I dont agree with alot of there conclusions. Much of the info seems to be things others have tested and proved years ago repackaged by them as if they discovered something. It was stated in the podcast that they have never seen a firearm that shoots under 1/2 moa over 50 rounds when I heard that i stopped taking what they have to say seriously. The benchrest record is well under that, Im not sure but I think the 600yd f class record is probably under 1/2 also. Seems to me its all about convincing customers if your gun shoots 1 1/2 moa its ok everyones does no need to buy better components or better reloading practices. Match ammo is just as good. Things will never improve if we all subscribe to there conclusions, which if I remember correctly were pick a safe powder charge 30 tho off the lands and shoot 20-50 rounds if it doesn't group change powders or bullets, and if that doesn't work the barrel will never group and lower your expectations.
Good grief dude. It’s called context and comprehension. They don’t shoot benchrest and weren’t talking about benchrest guns. They are hunters and prs shooters………….. And they never said anything remotely close to 1.5moa is as good as you’re gonna get. You’re way off base. Did they step on your toes or something?
 
not sure but I think the 600yd f class record is probably under 1/2 also

Just for the sake of argument... the current 600yd national records are 600-54X and 600-47X for F-Open and F-TR respectively. That's three strings of twenty, spaced over about a half a day, so different ambient conditions (wind, temperature, lighting, etc.). While the 10 ring is ~1 moa and the X-ring is ~1/2 moa... those guns are *generally* shooting a little tighter than that. I'd pretty well guarantee that the POA is shifting around a good bit to keep them in there.

The point I think some people are missing is that just because BR or F-Class guns are generally built and tuned to shoot (theoretically) more accurate than other kinds of guns doesn't necessarily negate what's been put out about small groups and sample sizes. If anything, it's *more* relevant. To really tell the difference between one load that shoots 0.3 moa (at whatever distance) and another that shoots 0.4 moa (at the same distance) with any real degree of confidence requires an insane number of shots - the smaller the difference, the more samples required to attain the same statistical 'power'. BR and F-class aren't magically immune to math 'just because'.

Like a number of folks, I'm more than a little conflicted about this. On the one hand, I get the math. It makes sense. It's a function of many aspects of modern, technical society. On the other hand... like others, I've done pretty well with various different methods over the years - most of which, if you showed them to any math/science/engineering person in any other field would get you some strange looks at the least, if not outright laughed at.
 
Definitely some feathers ruffled, and more than a few points are probably being taken out of context.

As stated before: Not a lot in that podcast that is "new", although their position on seating depth vs. accuracy being a minimal input was a bit odd to me. My personal experience is different, even when using Hornady bullets...although I must admit that if I'm over MOA by the 3rd to 5th shot, I'm scrapping that depth and moving on to another. I'm certainly not going to shoot 25 more rounds to see if my outliers just happened to be in the first shots.

So what? If you have a rifle that has fired several groups that are 1/2 MOA or a lot better, you still have a reason to be proud in your shooting/reloading abilities.

Maybe their averages are the way they are because the hosts are using Hornady ammo/components? 😄 Either way, you can't take this stuff too seriously.

I pointed out in the bolt action sub-forum a few months ago that selecting a load around (3) shot groups wasn't necessarily a great idea...and I got some flak over it. My position wasn't based upon my "maths skillz" that I learned over years of statistics agony in college...but based on the fact that my dumb ass shot a miracle group of (3) shots once, and promptly went home and loaded (100) more rounds of that recipe. I was new to "precision rifles" and reloading at the time. I found out quickly that my .289" (3) shot group wasn't repeatable, and that the load was much closer to MOA. Lesson learned...for me at least.

I'm comfortable with keeping a load that has held an aggregate over several groups of (5) shots that is within my performance expectation. It hasn’t let me down to this point, but I'm also not a pro either.

I was getting tired of seeing all the "10 shot ladder" tests on YouTube where guys were picking 'velocity nodes' based on a sample of one...and then the following video they had SDs well over 10 anyway. Maybe this podcast will help curb that trend a little.

Deep breaths gents.
 
It's entertaining watching the different reactions to that podcast, especially when the folks over at AccurateShooter.com were already stirred up from Litz's book. 🍿🍿
🍿
Thread going on AS now, most accurate post IMO is a guy who says, "follow the money". It seems to me people selling ammo are the ones pushing mega sample sizes, and statistics based loads.
Shooting industry seems to want to reinvent itself yearly, which is not bad, but more and more feel the need to make a name for themselves and or money and here we are. Baffles me how one can claim methods that have worked for decades, are no longer valid, or in this case, not enough validity.
With so many things, there is one way to do things that just makes so much sense that it is foolish not to follow. I do not feel reloading is one of them. Though I do feel if a person is experimenting with a new cartridge, new caliber, etc.... following some of these practices are a wise idea.

And since when has hornady been the go to for accuracy? Isn't this the same company who in 2013 said fuck the reloading consumers, we are going to make leverfuckingrevolution ammo?
 
I've had extremely low ES spreads with remarkably inaccurate loads, and high ES loads with excellent accuracy (at least inside 200 yards). For long range low ES rules, my 1,000 yard load typically runs an ES of 5 fps, best batch was 3 fps. Which just happens to make the SD look pretty good.

Quality brass from one lot, primers from one lot, powder from one lot, bullets (if possible) from one lot, measure to at least 1/10th, good dies, a good rifle, good optics, and good technique. I've never needed huge samples in over fifty years. Book loads in the velocity range I want, three shot groups in a ladder with a good chrono will tell me if anything is worth further development by way of actual velocity and ES. Don't need a huge statistically relevant sample size at this point. Fine tune shit with finer powder increments and seating and larger sample sizes.

I might mention that a good custom rifle will print nearly anything under 1 moa at 100 so a good chrono is a must. I figure an ES of 5 or under is fine and turns out it gives the really good SD everyone seems to agonize over.

It just ain't all that difficult. I got into long range late in life and didn't have anyplace longer than 200 yards to get started. Built a rifle, did initial break in and load development over two days, calculated a range card, went to my first long range match and corrected my range card on practice day, came in third in the match (almost no wind that day). I don't get to shoot a lot so understanding theory and application along with some expert advice from two very well respected folks worked out well. Even won a match or two. Still don't get to shoot much though.

My point is you don't have to duplicate all the extensive testing to develop a good setup. Someone has already done all of that, cherry pick it and save a ton of time and effort.
 
Thread going on AS now, most accurate post IMO is a guy who says, "follow the money". It seems to me people selling ammo are the ones pushing mega sample sizes, and statistics based loads.
Shooting industry seems to want to reinvent itself yearly, which is not bad, but more and more feel the need to make a name for themselves and or money and here we are. Baffles me how one can claim methods that have worked for decades, are no longer valid, or in this case, not enough validity.
With so many things, there is one way to do things that just makes so much sense that it is foolish not to follow. I do not feel reloading is one of them. Though I do feel if a person is experimenting with a new cartridge, new caliber, etc.... following some of these practices are a wise idea.

And since when has hornady been the go to for accuracy? Isn't this the same company who in 2013 said fuck the reloading consumers, we are going to make leverfuckingrevolution ammo?
They didn’t claim any methods aren’t valid. Just stated that it’s not as good as most ppl think…….. is that hard to grasp? Also they never claimed to be the go to ppl for accuracy….. Haters gonna hate! And whine lol.
 
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How about another statistical wrench in the 5-shot group works?

I just bought a new MagnetoSpeed V3. On the outside of the box it says: "Up to 99.9 percent accuracy". What exactly does that mean?

Well it means two things:

1) The "Up to" part of the statement means that the system could be less than 99.9% - but not more. How much so, and how often? your guess is as good as mine.

2) If you always get 99.9% accuracy how good is that? Well on a 3000 FPS rifle that is a possible error of 6 FPS! - It could go either way (+3 or -3). Let's say that you get some instrumental 99.8 percenters thrown in from time to time. On the same rifle above, then those carry a 12 FPS error! By the time you get to 99.7% the error is 24 FPS.

All within the margin of error, as stated by the manufacturer.

The only way to even out those errors, and those are just on the measurement instrument side, is (again) to shoot a LOT of shots through it so the errors even themselves out.

And watch out for max recommended load development.....
 
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They didn’t claim any methods aren’t valid. Just stated that it’s not as good as most ppl think…….. is that hard to grasp? Also they never claimed to be the go to ppl for accuracy….. Haters gonna hate! And whine lol.
LOL, my comments were not directed solely at hornady, more the fanboy club. You ask, "is it that hard to grasp" when I clearly stated some aspects are valid. I was probably the first one on this site 10 yrs ago saying that you could solely do load development based off a chrono, with some seat depth adj.
As for not being as good as people think, BR shooters prove the opposite every weekend by tuning for distance.
 
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LOL, my comments were not directed solely at hornady, more the fanboy club. You ask, "is it that hard to grasp" when I clearly stated some aspects are valid. I was probably the first one on this site 10 yrs ago saying that you could solely do load development based off a chrono, with some seat depth adj.
As for not being as good as people think, BR shooters prove the opposite every weekend by tuning for distance.
And they didn’t say you can’t or shouldn’t do that….
 
Thread going on AS now, most accurate post IMO is a guy who says, "follow the money". It seems to me people selling ammo are the ones pushing mega sample sizes, and statistics based loads.
Shooting industry seems to want to reinvent itself yearly, which is not bad, but more and more feel the need to make a name for themselves and or money and here we are. Baffles me how one can claim methods that have worked for decades, are no longer valid, or in this case, not enough validity.
With so many things, there is one way to do things that just makes so much sense that it is foolish not to follow. I do not feel reloading is one of them. Though I do feel if a person is experimenting with a new cartridge, new caliber, etc.... following some of these practices are a wise idea.

And since when has hornady been the go to for accuracy? Isn't this the same company who in 2013 said fuck the reloading consumers, we are going to make leverfuckingrevolution ammo?

you are not very smart, arent you? did you finished primary school? follow the money?

you clearly didnt understand the massage from bryan and hornady, which is: dont waste ammo and barrel time on load developement because is useless, just pick a load and go shoot.

''follow the money'' is rage from snake oil sellers, useless tuner producers and 3-shot shape gurus !
 
you are not very smart, arent you? did you finished primary school? follow the money?

you clearly didnt understand the massage from bryan and hornady, which is: dont waste ammo and barrel time on load developement because is useless, just pick a load and go shoot.

''follow the money'' is rage from snake oil sellers, useless tuner producers and 3-shot shape gurus !
Somes of us real loaders got smarts real good now! I be one of dem.
 
LOL, my comments were not directed solely at hornady, more the fanboy club. You ask, "is it that hard to grasp" when I clearly stated some aspects are valid. I was probably the first one on this site 10 yrs ago saying that you could solely do load development based off a chrono, with some seat depth adj.
As for not being as good as people think, BR shooters prove the opposite every weekend by tuning for distance.

Well, when people are decent enough to spend hours upon hours speaking on podcasts, giving us all their research (Countless hundreds of hours) FOR FREE, and they come out sounding like honest to goodness Americans (trust but verify), then yes, I would consider myself a fanboy (y).

I tend to trust them Nebraska boys. And I don't give my trust to many people at all.

I don't know how many times they have to say (paraphrasing), "Hey, we did all this research. This is what we found. We think it's valid. If you have a better way, then by all means, keep doing what you do."
 
There was one line in there that I keyed in on that summarized it best to me and it was when they were talking about how it takes a whole lot to tell you with confidence what it will actually do statistically but that it can also take very few to tell you as well.

If I have a load combination that gives 2+ moa then I dont want it regardless of sample size, its unacceptable to me period. If the next load combo gives .5 moa then maybe it will take some deeper looking into to ensure it doesnt fail my sub1moa standard.
It can fail your standard in a very small sample size, tell us where not to go easily. It takes much more confidence to say that it meets your standard and where it will go.
 
Yes... it's winter, and I'm easily amused this time of year.

It's entertaining watching the different reactions to that podcast, especially when the folks over at AccurateShooter.com were already stirred up from Litz's book. 🍿🍿
🍿
and the most funny thing is when we read comments from bullet producers, like bart, who is questioning: “Our sample sizes are too small”...
is this guy retarded?

i mean, when he started producing bullets, he shot 3 shots and because his group was tighter than with berger bullets, he claimed that his bullets are better?

or it was just the opposite: himself and other shooters shot thousonds and millions of his bullets and than they recognise that his bullets are better?

so statisticaly relevant sample of his bullets was shot during the years before he gains reputation !!!

some folks are realy stupid!
 
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and the most funny thing is when we read comments from bullet producers, like bart, who is questioning: “Our sample sizes are too small”...
is this guy retarded?

i mean, when he started producing bullets, he shot 3 shots and because his group was tighter than with berger bullets, he claimed that his bullets are better?

or it was just the opposite: himself and other shooters shot thousonds and millions of his bullets and than they recognise that his bullets are better?

so statisticaly relevant sample of his bullets was shot during the years before he gains reputation !!!

some folks are realy stupid!
Are you allowed to own firearms ? You just don't seem like you know anything about the subject .
 
you realy dont know what are you taliking about!
You really suck at Grammar . And the use of the English language as spoken/spelled here in the USA .

You did not answer my question . Are you allowed to own firearms ?
 
There was one line in there that I keyed in on that summarized it best to me and it was when they were talking about how it takes a whole lot to tell you with confidence what it will actually do statistically but that it can also take very few to tell you as well.
Yes, I recall them saying this also but, I think what they were explaining without explaining it very well was that a small sample size can show if the load combo is outside of previous statistically proven results. So they weren't taking that 3 or 5 shot group on it's own merit &, they also combine all those small groups by aggregation which imparts a great deal more statistical significance than is normally the case.
The guys at Hornady aren't the 1st to do this aggregated testing. That amazing effort we can attribute to Grubbs back in the 50's, who's research paved the way to a far more thorough understanding of how to accurately predict trends without having to use thousands of rounds but, there is a minimum limit of samples which need to be used & Grubbs formulated tables & multiplication factors which are used to this day in armies around the world to give accurate predictions with a relative minimum of expenditure.
It's all there, it's all been done. All we have to do is go with it.
 
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That amazing effort we can attribute to Grubbs back in the 50's, who's research paved the way to a far more thorough understanding of how to accurately predict trends without having to use thousands of rounds but, there is a minimum limit of samples which need to be used & Grubbs formulated tables & multiplication factors which are used to this day ...
well, I am sure that this was done way way before Grubbs. It's called statistics, and this mathematical discipline it's very old.

but you are right about multiplication factors.

but also we must be awear of one thing: ALL our groups, even 3-shot groups, follow statistics.;):

400px-Standard_deviation_diagram_micro.svg.png


so even 'majority' of our only 3-shot groups will fall in this distribution. so what it means? are our 3-shot groups irrelevant?

imho, not so much. even our 3-shot group will in one point become 'average', which will represent our precision by multiplying factors. but we must be smart and recognize this REAL AVERAGE 3-shot goup ! 🤡
 
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well, I am sure that this was done way way before Grubbs. It's called statistics, and this mathematical discipline it's very old.

but you are right about multiplication factors.

but also we must be awear of one thing: ALL our groups, even 3-shot groups, follow statistics.;):

400px-Standard_deviation_diagram_micro.svg.png


so even 'majority' of our only 3-shot groups will fall in this distribution. so what it means? are our 3-shot groups irrelevant?

imho, not so much. even our 3-shot group will in one point become 'average', which will represent our precision by multiplying factors. but we must be smart and recognize this REAL AVERAGE 3-shot goup ! 🤡
Your lack of knowledge of all things firearms is so obvious . Maybe if you are ever allowed to own one you will see just how foolish you looked while trolling on a USA based forum . You never did answer my question,. France ?
 
well, I am sure that this was done way way before Grubbs. It's called statistics, and this mathematical discipline it's very old.

but you are right about multiplication factors.

but also we must be awear of one thing: ALL our groups, even 3-shot groups, follow statistics.;):

400px-Standard_deviation_diagram_micro.svg.png


so even 'majority' of our only 3-shot groups will fall in this distribution. so what it means? are our 3-shot groups irrelevant?

imho, not so much. even our 3-shot group will in one point become 'average', which will represent our precision by multiplying factors. but we must be smart and recognize this REAL AVERAGE 3-shot goup ! 🤡
......but also we must be awear of one thing: ALL our groups, even 3-shot groups, follow statistics......

You're kidding right? Trolling? Nice graphic - Wikipedia puts out nice ones don't they?

News Flash: A normal distribution is a helpful statistical tool as a predictor of a PROBABLE outcome. That's it. Period end of story.

And a 3-shot group ain't gonna predict shit. You can take that to the bank.

Grubbs was a smart guy. He was the first one to point out that normal distributions are not necessarily the norm in the real world. You see, he figured out that in the real world there are these pesky little things called "outliers" - and those always screw up a normal distribution in a big way. He is known for establishing "Grubb's Test" - which can identify outliers in distribution samples. Then he created tables to show how sample sizes affected the outcome.

And, I've done the work, and have REAL samples in the REAL shooting world to prove it. Outliers are real, and they can only be ironed out (maybe) by increasing the sample size. In small samples containing outliers the distribution becomes NOT NORMAL, therefore useless as a predictive tool.

In shooting it happens all the time. Someone shoots a nice 1/2 MOA 3-shot group. Then they shoot another 3-shot group, two shots are close to each other and one is wide. The group is now 1 MOA. The shooter says: "Man, I got a "Flyer" (an outlier), so I'm not going to count that one - I have a 1/2-MOA rifle!"

I call bullshit. Somewhere in the REAL world there is a piece of paper with three shots that are 1-MOA apart, for you and your rifle.

And that's all I have to say about that!
 
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......but also we must be awear of one thing: ALL our groups, even 3-shot groups, follow statistics......

You're kidding right? Trolling? Nice graphic - Wikipedia puts out nice ones don't they?

News Flash: A normal distribution is a helpful statistical tool as a predictor of a PROBABLE outcome. That's it. Period end of story.

And a 3-shot group ain't gonna predict shit. You can take that to the bank.

Grubbs was a smart guy. He was the first one to point out that normal distributions are not necessarily the norm in the real world. You see, he figured out that in the real world there are these pesky little things called "outliers" - and those always screw up a normal distribution in a big way. He is known for establishing "Grubb's Test" - which can identify outliers in distribution samples. Then he created tables to show how sample sizes affected the outcome.

And, I've done the work, and have REAL samples in the REAL shooting world to prove it. Outliers are real, and they can only be ironed out (maybe) by increasing the sample size. In small samples containing outliers the distribution becomes NOT NORMAL, therefore useless as a predictive tool.

In shooting it happens all the time. Someone shoots a nice 1/2 MOA 3-shot group. Then they shoot another 3-shot group, two shots are close to each other and 1 is wide. The group is now 1 MOA. The shooter says: Man, I got a "Flyer" (an outlier), so I'm not going to count that one"

I call bullshit. Somewhere in the REAL world there is a piece of paper with three shots that are 1-MOA apart, for you and your rifle.

And that's all I have to say about that!
If Grubbs had the recognition he deserves from the shooting community, we wouldn't have so many guys who think a 3 shot group tells them anything accept what they want it to tell them.
Grubbs was indeed a smart guy who advanced statistics & science.
 
The follow up video came out today. Here are the highlights.
I am not a court reporter, so some of my words may be slightly different than theirs, sorry but ya get what ya paid for....

0:00 Intro, a follow up to the previous podcast video

4:00 A 500 shot group didn’t significantly change past 50 shots

6:00 Discussed the procedure used for the rail gun in their lab.

7:00 Barrel heat and cadence

  • Cadence was discussed for difference between cooling off versus long strings.
  • 30 – 50 shots was too much even for the 1.25” Dia Test barrel profile of the rail gun
  • Their test barrels are typically SS single point cut rifling, not button rifles which may have issues with heat
11:00 Was the last video a conspiracy to sell more bullets, ha ha ha, lol.

14:00 Pick a load and go, versus waste time and resources on false load development

14:40 They reiterated the stats problem with small samples

17:30 Why do we shoot groups at all? To predict the future shots.

21:13 Do what you want to, but own it. We ain’t telling you to follow us if you don’t want to.

22:15 Better to do bad at a local match, than to drive far away and do bad with remorse the whole way home.

24:00 Small samples sizes costs more in reality when it wastes components and work.

25:30 Context is custom versus factory. Properly selected and assembled custom gear shoots better than a factory gun, and expectations are different.

27:20 Because good guns shoot well, expect very little difference in results when using good components.

28:00 Biggest influence on load development in this context – bullets and powders.

29:00 What do you do if you are stocked up on a given bullet and powder and are not happy? Reduce Charge.

31:00 Discussed priority between speed and high BC versus dispersion. Better to accept a good dispersion from a slower, lower BC bullet, than to push for a poor group with speed or trajectory. Dropping charge weight is okay.

31:45 Discussed hypotheses of why dropping charge weights may be better

33:25 Pick a known good powder, pick a known good bullet, reduce charge if you are not happy at first.

33:35 Miles reiterated his observations that seating depth doesn’t show strong effects in their testing.

34:45 Discussion of what jump may be doing. Bullets starting into rifling straight may be a key to getting good performance and small groups.

36:15 Handguns are much more sensitive to seating depth and case volume than rifles with respect to pressure.

37:26 Their tests do not show seating depth sensitivity and that may be because their designs are not “aggressive” meaning they don’t have a short bearing surface that might make them jump sensitive and they don’t use sloppy chamber/neck designs.

38:00 They decide to go back through load development methods for match and for hunting rigs.

38:40 Miles repeats his previous approach on match rifles, discussing based on his 6 ARC and 6.5 CM

  • He is invested in Varget and Leverevolution powders as his go to for match shooting.
  • His start point is based on the background of several previous barrels and has several spun up and ready.
  • He knows to search near 27.5 – 28 grains of Varget with 110 ATip with 30 – 40 jump
  • He tests a 20 shot group
  • If not happy he checks 0.5 grains to 1.0 grains, and if still unhappy he changes powders.
  • If still not happy, he changes to 108, 109, or even 103.
40:38 Miles – if in unknown territory?

  • Research and study the most popular powders from competition
  • Shoots 10 shot “feeler groups”
  • Abandons them if he doesn’t see better than 1 MOA
  • Sets personal criteria of 0.75 MOA or better for 20 shots.
42:08 Miles reiterated that across the charge range from book MIN to book MAX, he doesn’t see SD change significantly. He accepts an SD of 13 – 14 at most, prefers it to be 7 – 12.

  • “Using velocity for load development is a moot point”
  • Velocity should not be seriously looked at till afterward.
43:40 Miles recommends buying a whole barrel life’s worth of components if you can.

44:50 This (Hornady’s podcast advice in this context) applies to plate matches.

  • This does not apply to F-Class
  • This does not apply to BR
  • This does not apply to ELR
  • They would reevaluate their methods past plate matches and practical long range shooting.
45:21 Jayden then took his turn on hunting rifles.

  • Similar to Miles, picks a powder with known good reputation
  • Sets a cut-off line for distance capability in his mind up front.
  • Picks the bullet based on the job and distance expectation at the lowest expected velocity to perform down range and the bullets lowest terminal velocity then works back to what the muzzle velocity needs to be.
  • Focuses next on which of the powders that can hit those numbers are known for precision.
  • Avoid going to cheaper or less popular powders, wait for the right powder.
49:00 Test the load the way you are going to use it

  • Magazine length if important to feed.
  • 3 shot groups if necessary to avoid overheating button rifled barrels
  • Test on multiple days if necessary
  • Let the gun cold soak to simulate hunting days
  • If the recipe doesn’t pass your expectations and criteria, try to change one of the components, whichever is the most obvious option.
  • Between bullet or powder, will also consider changing to a lower BC if necessary, for example he changed ELD-M to an ELD-X in one rifle “and it was awesome”.
51:20 Discussion of group shape

  • Jayden – groups should be round in short range tests.
  • Linear stringing is usually a sign of a hardware problem like loose screws, actions, or stocks.
52:50 Miles stated that almost nothing hits dead center. The statistical distribution looks like a volcano with a dip at the center of the group.

54:15 Miles on group metrics

  • Group size versus mean radius or SD
  • He prefers the mean radius
  • He likes to estimate a capability at +/- 2 Sigma
  • Prefers not to rely on just the ES or group size alone.
56:00 Jayden’s take

  • Group size only uses outer shots
  • Mean Radius uses more of the data
  • Looking at all of the data is better than looking at just the two outer ones
59:00 Discussion of CEP and other group metrics that use more of the data.

60:00 Discussion of future topics

  • Chamber designs and jump sensitivity of bullet designs
  • Barrel Tuners
End of session.
 
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One or two of their new points is bound to cause some drama.

The context of all of their talk being "plate matches" and specifically not valid in all guns or contexts is an important one, but one that is bound to be ignored.

More real shooting, more data, and less talking, is one I can agree with. YMMV

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
 
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The follow up video came out today. Here are the highlights.
I am not a court reporter, so some of my words may be slightly different than theirs, sorry but ya get what ya paid for....

0:00 Intro, a follow up to the previous podcast video

4:00 A 500 shot group didn’t significantly change past 50 shots

6:00 Discussed the procedure used for the rail gun in their lab.

7:00 Barrel heat and cadence

  • Cadence was discussed for difference between cooling off versus long strings.
  • 30 – 50 shots was too much even for the 1.25” Dia Test barrel profile of the rail gun
  • Their test barrels are typically SS single point cut rifling, not button rifles which may have issues with heat
11:00 Was the last video a conspiracy to sell more bullets, ha ha ha, lol.

14:00 Pick a load and go, versus waste time and resources on false load development

14:40 They reiterated the stats problem with small samples

17:30 Why do we shoot groups at all?

21:13 Do what you want to, but own it. We ain’t telling you to follow us if you don’t want to.

22:15 Better to do bad at a local match, than to drive far away and do bad with remorse the whole way home.

24:00 Small samples sizes costs more in reality when it wastes components and work.

25:30 Context is custom versus factory. Properly selected and assembled custom gear shoots better than a factory gun, and expectations are different.

27:20 Because good guns shoot well, expect very little difference in results when using good components.

28:00 Biggest influence on load development in this context – bullets and powders.

29:00 What do you do if you are stocked up on a given bullet and powder and are not happy? Reduce Charge.

31:00 Discussed priority between speed and high BC versus dispersion. Better to accept a good dispersion from a slower, lower BC bullet, than to push for a poor group with speed or trajectory. Dropping charge weight is okay.

31:45 Discussed hypotheses of why dropping charge weights may be better

33:25 Pick a known good powder, pick a known good bullet, reduce charge if you are not happy at first.

33:35 Miles reiterated his observations that seating depth doesn’t show strong effects in their testing.

34:45 Discussion of what jump may be doing. Bullets starting into rifling straight may be a key to getting good performance and small groups.

36:15 Handguns are much more sensitive to seating depth and case volume than rifles with respect to pressure.

37:26 Their tests do not show seating depth sensitivity and that may be because their designs are not “aggressive” meaning they don’t have a short bearing surface that might make them jump sensitive and they don’t use sloppy chamber/neck designs.

38:00 They decide to go back through load development methods for match and for hunting rigs.

38:40 Miles repeats his previous approach on match rifles, discussing based on his 6 ARC and 6.5 CM

  • He is invested in Varget and Leverevolution powders as his go to for match shooting.
  • His start point is based on the background of several previous barrels and has several spun up and ready.
  • He knows to search near 27.5 – 28 grains of Varget with 110 ATip with 30 – 40 jump
  • He tests a 20 shot group
  • If not happy he checks 0.5 grains to 1.0 grains, and if still unhappy he changes powders.
  • If still not happy, he changes to 108, 109, or even 103.
40:38 Miles – if in unknown territory?

  • Research and study the most popular powders from competition
  • Shoots 10 shot “feeler groups”
  • Abandons them if he doesn’t see better than 1 MOA
  • Sets personal criteria of 0.75 MOA or better for 20 shots.
42:08 Miles reiterated that across the charge range from book MIN to book MAX, he doesn’t see SD change significantly. He accepts an SD of 13 – 14 at most, prefers it to be 7 – 12.

  • “Using velocity for load development is a moot point”
  • Velocity should not be seriously looked at till afterward.
43:40 Miles recommends buying a whole barrel life’s worth of components if you can.

44:50 This (Hornady’s podcast advice in this context) applies to plate matches.

  • This does not apply to F-Class
  • This does not apply to BR
  • This does not apply to ELR
  • They would reevaluate their methods past plate matches and practical long range shooting.
45:21 Jayden then took his turn on hunting rifles.

  • Similar to Miles, picks a powder with known good reputation
  • Sets a cut-off line for distance capability in his mind up front.
  • Picks the bullet based on the job and distance expectation at the lowest expected velocity to perform down range and the bullets lowest terminal velocity then works back to what the muzzle velocity needs to be.
  • Focuses next on which of the powders that can hit those numbers are known for precision.
  • Avoid going to cheaper or less popular powders, wait for the right powder.
49:00 Test the load the way you are going to use it

  • Magazine length if important to feed.
  • 3 shot groups if necessary to avoid overheating button rifled barrels
  • Test on multiple days if necessary
  • Let the gun cold soak to simulate hunting days
  • If the recipe doesn’t pass your expectations and criteria, try to change one of the components, whichever is the most obvious option.
  • Between bullet or powder, will also consider changing to a lower BC if necessary, for example he changed ELD-M to an ELD-X in one rifle “and it was awesome”.
51:20 Discussion of group shape

  • Jayden – groups should be round in short range tests.
  • Linear stringing is usually a sign of a hardware problem like loose screws, actions, or stocks.
52:50 Miles stated that almost nothing hits dead center. The statistical distribution looks like a volcano with a dip at the center of the group.

54:15 Miles on group metrics

  • Group size versus mean radius or SD
  • He prefers the mean radius
  • He likes to estimate a capability at +/- 2 Sigma
  • Prefers not to rely on just the ES or group size alone.
56:00 Jayden’s take

  • Group size only uses outer shots
  • Mean Radius uses more of the data
  • Looking at all of the data is better than looking at just the two outer ones
59:00 Discussion of CEP and other group metrics that use more of the data.

60:00 Discussion of future topics

  • Chamber designs and jump sensitivity of bullet designs
  • Barrel Tuners
End of session.
WOW. Just watched it. These guys are not only good, they keep getting better!

Jaden makes some very key points starting at the 18-minute mark or so that validated what I posted upstream on this thread (post #94), albeit in nicer language :D. That made me feel good!.

The information on this latest podcast is outstanding!

In case you need a link, here it is:
 
Last edited:
WOW. Just watched it. This guys are not only good, they keep getting better!

Jaden makes some very key points starting at the 18-minute mark or so that validated what I posted upstream on this thread (post #94), albeit in nicer language :D. That made me feel good!.

The information on this latest podcast is outstanding!

In case you need a link, here it is:

If these guys can convince enough reloaders & guys who buy premium gear of the truth, we may see the day, sooner rather than later, that the high quality rifle builders & manufacturers don't have to stoop to promising ridiculous 1/4 MOA guarantees to the "1/4 moa ALL DAY WHEN I DO MY PART, RETARDS" to compete in the market place.