Please change your screen name to Tolstoy!Will those carriers get played just like Israel did expending their air defense missiles on decades old junk missiles only to face threats from modern capable anti ship missiles once their air defense is near depletion? Not likely. Is this the reason for the second carrier group, to increase the quanity of air defense missiles protecting both groups and Israel.? Yes. Hezbollah has 50-100k missiles if all those missiles are engaged they will run out of air defense. They will have to try and sort the missles not wasting air defense on the junk and targeting the larger more modern missiles targeting Haifa and Tel Avi and the groups themselves. The two carrier groups have a impressive amount of air defense It is unlikly they will be hit assuming they have the ability to sort and ignore old junk missiles that dont have the range to hit them. The enemy will be doing everthing in its power to make sorting between the real threats and junk hard. The other risk is the practice of adding electronic warfare to anti ship missiles to defeat air defense. Air defense could be expected to approach 50 billion dollars in cost for the two carrier groups.. hezbollah can be expected to have some of the various forms of chinese silkworm missilesthat are basically junk and mask their p800 hypersonic attacks with those. Israel hitting Allepo and Damascus airports daily is good because no doubt iran is trying to bring in more modern anti ship missiles to the conflict. The closer the air defense ships get to the coast the more capable they will be at protecting Israel but the more at risk they will be to themselves.
This conflict has been building for a while. IMO the iranian 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities clearly indicated their intent to stop oil transit in the region should war occur. The audacity of those attacks was regarded by some as bait for the USA bait it did not take. iran has not been shy about this basically stating if we are not bringing oil to market no one brings oil to market. IMO the iranians regard the cessation of oil transit through the strait as their primary tactic and tool in world war prefering it to outright nuclear weapon deployment. After all other countries have a lot more nuclear weapons but they dont have a strait of hormuz. IMO the iranians will have spent considerable time evaluating how to close the strait and keep it closed possibly even having contigecies to do so in 2019. Itwill be extremly difficult to ensure safe passage through the strait from iranian drones that can be launched from small hidden facilities. The cost of insurance through the passage could easily equal the cost of the oil cargo adding to the cost of the product. It would requiere escort by a vessal with air defense. It will require USN getting close and they will attempt to exploit that to the degree they are able. The USN has had two vessals in the strait to prevent hijackings in the strait for some time to prevent the tit for tat seizures that were occuring.. When the strait closes it will no doubt be with an eye for ambushes much as we see in gaza now. It will take time to create a cohesive response to the strait closing and during that time oil will become very expensive.. If iran was indeed involved in the nine seven (it rymes) attack it may be with intent to move to the strait closure that they did not trigger in 2019. My very very small understanding is their ideas about war favor a small confrontation that leads to a series of escalating ambushes that attrit.
I am not naive. I know the attackers on 9-7 are horrible creatures. I know the revolutionary gurd are not nice people to say the least. I do not condone Israels actions in gaza. That doesnt change the fact that this might be a set up by Iran. shia iran could care less about the sunni palestinians. that makes them ideal for sacrificial lambs. In fact no nation cares about the palestinians. Every human life is a child of god. If compassion is created for the palestinians it will have to come from the worlds civillian populations. All civillian populations are at risk from genocide if it is allowed. gaza is the place where Israel placed palestinians after stealing their land. If there had been smallpox it would made things easier. Genociding them now is not acceptable. bibis solution is not a solution. It will be the end of Israel if he pulls it off. bibi a very reactive individual. Was that reactivity exploited by iran? if so the bait is not being passed over like it was in 2019 by a leader wise enough not to take it. Does anyone really believe these events are coincidental? This is a set up its a good one and we are taking the bait hook line and sinker.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silkworm_(missile)
Explained: Why Did Iran Attack Saudi Arabia's Oil Industry?
Key point: Iran has decided to push back and see how far it can go in signaling its displeasure. Iranian protestations of innocence notwithstanding, the arrows following last week’s massive drone and missile strikes on oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia all point toward Tehran. In this, there’s...nationalinterest.org
