Russia/China Intel failure?

[buffalowinter]

One of the most interesting aspects of Op Midnight Hammer is that both Russian and Chinese Satellite/HUMINT failed to detect the launch and approach of our attack. You can have high certainty that if detected, both China and Russia would have informed the Iranians. They would do this so they could observe the effectiveness of their air defense systems that they have sold to the Iranians in use against our aircraft. I also wonder how many Israeli/US assets were on the site for LTD/Beacon/BDA missions.

 

[GreenGO Juan]

Mid night hammer.

I bet Nancy Pelosi loves that name.

 

[akg102]

Didn’t Iran reject the assistance of Russian/Chinese built air defense systems, opting to build their own?

 

[joe777]

Or they don't care or the bombings benefit them. Who tf knows

 

[Blue Sky Country]

This is the main counter I use against the statements of folks who made fun of the lack of 'disciplined' marching that the troops put on at the parade last week. We are too busy actually protecting the world from ghosties, ghoulies, and things that go bump in the night to focus too much on pomp and show. $100 says that we have already gleaned EVERY face and personal story of those who had murdered Christians and Alawite civilians for fun in Syria earlier this year. These fuckers are already dead, they just don't know it yet...

 

[buffalowinter]

This is the main counter I use against the statements of folks who made fun of the lack of 'disciplined' marching that the troops put on at the parade last week. We are too busy actually protecting the world from ghosties, ghoulies, and things that go bump in the night to focus too much on pomp and show. $100 says that we have already gleaned EVERY face and personal story of those who had murdered Christians and Alawite civilians for fun in Syria earlier this year. These fuckers are already dead, they just don't know it yet...

 

[Blue Sky Country]

Didn’t Iran reject the assistance of Russian/Chinese built air defense systems, opting to build their own?

Yes, after they realized that the air defense system China had sold them back in 2019 is obsolete, and ridden with faulty components. China had done that on purpose. Vast stores of obsolete and malfunctioning tech are piled up at warehouses kept for that exact purpose. The Chinese mentality is to make a gain for everything, even waste, as opposed to proper disposal. They sold the Russians an entire stock of faulty and malfunctioning FPV drones back in 2023. Those were factory defects and were slated for the crusher until the CCP Ministry of Defense told the factory to hold onto them and they would be given a cut of the gains after the government "disposed" of them.

China does not care about Iran any more than they care about Russia. In the East Asian mentality, one only associates with those who can yield the greatest amount of benefits and rewards to themselves from an alliance or partnership. It is a purely corporate and business mentality. Under the veil of the periodic verbal-only virtue signaling that they sometimes put up for Gaza and Iran, China's true associates, whom they actually go out of the way to provide top of the line exports for are Israel, South Korea, Japan, and the USA, because these are trade partners that they know will create stable, long term benefit for everybody involved. There are no profits or gains to Chinese interests from allying with Hamas or Iran, or Russia and that is why China issues no more than lip service and some empty proclamations of sympathy to them only. Even their lands do not have the amount of resources that satisfy China's industrial and technological infrastructure. There is a reason why the Holosuns, Cyelees, Imalents, Lenovos, etc that are on the US market are near flawless and top of the line products. The vast surveillance network and AI facial recog cameras and software Israel had employed in the West Bank are all Chinese built.

 

[DeathBeforeDismount]

One of the most interesting aspects of Op Midnight Hammer is that both Russian and Chinese Satellite/HUMINT failed to detect the launch and approach of our attack. You can have high certainty that if detected, both China and Russia would have informed the Iranians. They would do this so they could observe the effectiveness of their air defense systems that they have sold to the Iranians in use against our aircraft. I also wonder how many Israeli/US assets were on the site for LTD/Beacon/BDA missions.
View attachment 8713972

This is a retarded take. The fuck they would. Why reveal a capability that may be needed to protect yourself from a similar attack. All that would do is translate a need for the US to urgently develop counter tech or revise their attack vectors.

 

[buffalowinter]

This is a retarded take. The fuck they would. Why reveal a capability that may be needed to protect yourself from a similar attack. All that would do is translate a need for the US to urgently develop counter tech or revise their attack vectors.

So, Russia/China intel reveals an attack on Iran:

Course of Action 1: Do not inform Iran of attack. No missiles launched, no targets engaged. Nothing is learned.

Course of Action 2: Inform Iran of attack, learn about the weapon system capabilities of both friendly and enemy, and hopefully shoot down an F117 and get to steal all the classified technology. (Although I would hope there was a plan to destroy wreckage and rescue pilot. This is what I was trained to do. CSAR and Laser Target Designation/Beacon Bombing behind enemy lines)

 

[Namekagon]

One of the most interesting aspects of Op Midnight Hammer is that both Russian and Chinese Satellite/HUMINT failed to detect the launch and approach of our attack. You can have high certainty that if detected, both China and Russia would have informed the Iranians. They would do this so they could observe the effectiveness of their air defense systems that they have sold to the Iranians in use against our aircraft. I also wonder how many Israeli/US assets were on the site for LTD/Beacon/BDA missions.
View attachment 8713972

Did the Iranian's have any air defenses left? I was under the impression that Israel owned the sky for a few days before the raid.

 

[DeathBeforeDismount]

It would be incredibly naive to think the Chinese and Russians do not have spotters at Whitman that translate every flight of B2s. It would also be retarded to think they don't both have satellites whose sole purpose is tracking aircraft, missiles ect. Same with Guam, DG and Qatar. When those birds move, they know.

They understand the USs SIGINT capabilities to point they know we are "probably" listening to just about everything.

What is the benefit to warning Iran? They have zero ability to stop the attack. They don't have the time to harden or move any equipment. This is not the 90s with retarded f117 predictable flights in a heavy semi modern ada environment. Israel already knocked out virtually all the ADA. Missles don't work when the radars are destroyed and the sites are vacated because people don't want to eat a HARM as soon as they light up ( which every satellite, drone, f35 and awacs would pick up as soon as they powered up, resulting in immediate launch of anti radiation fires).

Countries don't spend millions or billions on detection and counter tech to just let everyone know it's capabilities, especially in a situation like there where there is no advantage or justification to reveal.

Assuming actions/inactions in war or proxies wars is based on capabilities instead of decision making trees is foolish.

This entire thread is retardation based on an assumption that OP pulled out of his ass.

 

[buffalowinter]

Did the Iranian's have any air defenses left? I was under the impression that Israel owned the sky for a few days before the raid.

Who knows? Again why China/Russia would/should have informed Iran of the impending attack:

China/Russia: Hey Iran, there's a bunch of F117's headed for you nuke facilities, you might want to shoot them down.

Iran: We don't have that capability.

China/Russia: Here's a bunch of shit to shoot them down with, you got 37 hours to get ready.

 

[GreenGO Juan]

I am curious.

Did they get anything airborne or fire any missiles at the strike package?

 

[DeathBeforeDismount]

I am curious.

Did they get anything airborne or fire any missiles at the strike package?

Probably will never know the truth. Again. Even if they did you don't reveal capabilities unless you absolutely have to or there is a massive advantage to doing so.

Countries plan for war based on assumptions, guesses, and predictions. Don't make their job easier by turning an assumption into a fact.

 

[lash]

Who knows? Again why China/Russia would/should have informed Iran of the impending attack:

China/Russia: Hey Iran, there's a bunch of F117's headed for you nuke facilities, you might want to shoot them down.

Iran: We don't have that capability.

China/Russia: Here's a bunch of shit to shoot them down with, you got 37 hours to get ready.

I see that you haven’t yet figured out that you cannot reason or discuss anything with DildosBeforeDestruction. He is always 111% correct at all times in his own mind. No matter the topic, he is his own personal expert.

 

[roostercogburn98]

Countries plan for war based on assumptions, guesses, and predictions. Don't make their job easier by turning an assumption into a fact.

Why do we constantly need to spy on each other to see what new tech is out or being developed then?

If we waited until we needed it, I believe the phrase is “ we be fucked”

 

[Namekagon]

It would be incredibly naive to think the Chinese and Russians do not have spotters at Whitman that translate every flight of B2s. It would also be retarded to think they don't both have satellites whose sole purpose is tracking aircraft, missiles ect. Same with Guam, DG and Qatar. When those birds move, they know.

They understand the USs SIGINT capabilities to point they know we are "probably" listening to just about everything.

What is the benefit to warning Iran? They have zero ability to stop the attack. They don't have the time to harden or move any equipment. This is not the 90s with retarded f117 predictable flights in a heavy semi modern ada environment. Israel already knocked out virtually all the ADA. Missles don't work when the radars are destroyed and the sites are vacated because people don't want to eat a HARM as soon as they light up ( which every satellite, drone, f35 and awacs would pick up as soon as they powered up, resulting in immediate launch of anti radiation fires).

Countries don't spend millions or billions on detection and counter tech to just let everyone know it's capabilities, especially in a situation like there where there is no advantage or justification to reveal.

Assuming actions/inactions in war or proxies wars is based on capabilities instead of decision making trees is foolish.

This entire thread is retardation based on an assumption that OP pulled out of his ass.

I have no inside baseball, but I bet one of the main reasons Trump seemed on the fence about using bunker busters would be showing the world how they work. If you blow up the bunkers, now the world knows you can go at least that deep. If you fail to completely demo those facilities, now the world knows exactly the limits of the weapons we have. In this case, I think the target ended up being worth it, but certainly there was an information cost to doing the raid.

 

[buffalowinter]

I see that you haven’t yet figured out that you cannot reason or discuss anything with DildosBeforeDestruction. He is always 111% correct at all times in his own mind. No matter the topic, he is his own personal expert.

Well, he actually raises a good point. I thought this was a failure in the plot of Red October. Once we figured out what the Red October sounded like (lava anomaly) we could detect it, so why would we let the Russians know their weapon was compromised. The counter to this argument is that the Red October was a "first strike" weapon, and as such we would only destroy it after it launched. And the counter argument to that is....time to go for a run.

 

[Namekagon]

Who knows? Again why China/Russia would/should have informed Iran of the impending attack:

China/Russia: Hey Iran, there's a bunch of F117's headed for you nuke facilities, you might want to shoot them down.

Iran: We don't have that capability.

China/Russia: Here's a bunch of shit to shoot them down with, you got 37 hours to get ready.

Also, if Iran knew that they knew and didn't say anything, that could make future alliances with Iran (or maybe even others) more difficult for Russia and China? Not that those two were ever trustworthy.

 

[buffalowinter]

Also, if Iran knew that they knew and didn't say anything, that could make future alliances with Iran (or maybe even others) more difficult for Russia and China? Not that those two were ever trustworthy.

I have amended the thread title by adding a question mark.

Russia/China Intel failure?​

 

[Redlion]

Thank Rubio at least in part. He is doing a better job than I anticipated. I think that his experience on the Senate Intel Oversight Committee gives him more a more complete understanding of what is really going on now that he is in the Trump Admin.

DC Insider Outlines How Rubio Removed Capability of Foreign Governments to Extract Intelligence From Trump Administration​

In part, Secretary of State/National Security Advisor Marco Rubio restructured the National Security Council, and when he did that “Europeans and those in the Middle East” lost their ability to “plug-in” to their contact sources. The “cultivated sources” they used were no longer in place. It’s only about a minute on that aspect, but revealing when you consider influence operations and the push to war. WATCH:

https://theconservativetreehouse.co...tract-intelligence-from-trump-administration/

 

[_Windrider_]

This is the main counter I use against the statements of folks who made fun of the lack of 'disciplined' marching that the troops put on at the parade last week. We are too busy actually protecting the world from ghosties, ghoulies, and things that go bump in the night to focus too much on pomp and show. $100 says that we have already gleaned EVERY face and personal story of those who had murdered Christians and Alawite civilians for fun in Syria earlier this year. These fuckers are already dead, they just don't know it yet...

That parade was pathetic honestly. Colossal waste of money and assets.

 

[DeathBeforeDismount]

Thank Rubio at least in part. He is doing a better job than I anticipated. I think that his experience on the Senate Intel Oversight Committee gives him more a more complete understanding of what is really going on now that he is in the Trump Admin.



https://theconservativetreehouse.co...tract-intelligence-from-trump-administration/

He has been the biggest surprise in the administration. I was not a fan but he is turning out to be the best SOS in the last 70-100 years. Dude has wildly exceeded ALL expectations. And I think its going to earn him a seat on a presidential ticket in the not to distant future. If its not Desantis/Vance I could See Vance/Rubio.

 

[Big Phish]

Mid night hammer.

I bet Nancy Pelosi loves that name.

But that raging bitch starts at high noon every day.

 

[DeathBeforeDismount]

That's what her faggot husband got hit with by his gay lover. Midnight Hammer. Probably Trump admin trolling them.

 

[Redlion]

He has been the biggest surprise in the administration. I was not a fan but he is turning out to be the best SOS in the last 70-100 years. Dude has wildly exceeded ALL expectations. And I think its going to earn him a seat on a presidential ticket in the not to distant future. If its not Desantis/Vance I could See Vance/Rubio.

Tusli is right along with him doing a great job trying to neuter the intel agencies.

 

[db2000]

Where’s the 500kg of Ur?

 

[anon]

Thank Rubio at least in part. He is doing a better job than I anticipated. I think that his experience on the Senate Intel Oversight Committee gives him more a more complete understanding of what is really going on now that he is in the Trump Admin.



https://theconservativetreehouse.co...tract-intelligence-from-trump-administration/

I'd rather it were that, than a rope-a-dope.

 

[Aftermath]

My guess is that US intel told Iran weeks ago that the nuclear sites were going to be hit. Iran then moved a bunch of centrifuges and enriched uranium. US and Israel hit those sites and a few others in a Big Beautiful Bombing Burlesque as a distraction for something going on somewhere. This way, the mean ol' Supreme Leader can still threaten everyone with a nuke someday and the US Military-Industrial Complex can continue to make US Senators and Representatives and Israeli leaders wealthy for another decade or 2.

 

[GreenGO Juan]

Where’s the 500kg of Ur?

Asked about the whereabouts of Iran's 60% enriched uranium, Netanyahu said: "We've been following that very closely. I can tell you that it's an important component of a nuclear programme.

"It's not the sole component. It's not a sufficient component. But it is an important component and we have interesting intel on that, which you will excuse me if I don't share with you," he said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-says-israel-close-meeting-its-goals-iran-2025-06-22/

My take, they have it somewhere and seem to be suggesting they know where it is. Just a shot in the dark suggestion, I know Russia offered to take it, I wonder if that was allowed?

 

[Mr.BR]

I would imagine Russians took the materials for safe keeping , its not like there is shit load of it , Besides they are building mutiple nuclear reactors and have Rosatom crews and gear in Iran 24/7 .

Theatre is finished and folks can fantasize Donald took everyone by supprise , but its childish to do so US swiss embassy phone lines, racked quite a tab runing Iranian hot line and getting strike package aproved and routed through Iranian air control. The Chinese got their spy ships in just in time not to miss it.

 

[GreenGO Juan]

Besides they are building mutiple nuclear reactors and have Rosatom crews and gear in Iran 24/7 .

yep, Russia already handles their spent fuel rods.

IDK, just a thought.

 

[db2000]

Yeah, the Chink 747’s possibly a diversion on their part.

 

[Eostech]

$100 says that we have already gleaned EVERY face and personal story of those who had murdered Christians and Alawite civilians for fun in Syria earlier this year. These fuckers are already dead, they just don't know it yet...

Well they are US proxies so of course your intel agencies know who they are.
There will be no recompense.

 

[Threadcutter308]

But that raging bitch starts at high noon every day.

I bet she's at least half in the bag by 10:00, 10:30 AM.

By high noon, she's got a Foster Brooks buzz going......