Fuel shortage coming....very quickly.

bobke

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  • Sep 17, 2010
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    Hill Country, Texas
    Not meaning to do any more than creating awareness, was informed by a very reliable source that fuel will be in short supply within 2-3 days-maybe sooner, in 1/3rd of the country. Went out north of airport in San Antonio an hour ago and found diesel back in the neighborhoods after 4 stops. All of the larger stations on 281out of both gas and diesel, or will be shortly. Not sure how long it might last, and available resources best directed towards Houston/Beaumont till then. Be safe out there.
     
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    Might want to check on Beaumont status before diving in. Pretty serious infrastructure issues abound. A solid contingency plan advised.

    I was just in contact with my soon to be supervisor, he said to wait till this weekend so I told him I'd call him Saturday to get an update. Wish I was down there right now helping.
     
    Here in the Dallas / Fort Worth area of Texas, gas is getting scarce, a lot of stations are out completely & there are huge 1970s style lines for gas at the few remaining ones.
    You are lucky if you only have to wait 30 minutes to get gas at one of the few stations that have it, most are up to an hour wait.

    If you plan on driving through, I'd carry extra cans of gas and don't count on getting any during the trip.
     
    Simply put, I think that this may be a bad time to be starting a long trip headed for Texas. Should consider reconsidering.

    I hope this topic doesn't feed a more serious run on fuel, either. Just sayin'...

    I remember the 70's gas lines all too well.

    Greg
     
    A large portion of this is people panicking and hording fuel just like the ammo a few years back. Pipeline flow is being re routed, fuel trucks are being sent to different depots. A couple of the refineries are set to begin startup in the next couple days.
     
    Might want to check on Beaumont status before diving in. Pretty serious infrastructure issues abound. A solid contingency plan advised.

    I'm in Shreveport, and the electronic signs on the I-20 say that I-10 between Beaumont and Houston is closed.

    Somebody posted this pic of I-10 a couple days ago.

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    I expected this and topped up on gas over the weekend, fortunately I don't drive much so I can easily weather any fuel spikes for a couple weeks until I have to pick up the kids another state away next weekend. The Colonial Pipelines that feed the east coast are running at reduced capacities and only east of Lake Charles, but they're running. They're predicting full line back up and running on Sunday from Houston. That sent gas prices here in VA shooting up from $2.00 to $2.40 overnight, same as when they had the leaks earlier this year that cut delivery. Not good combined with the holiday weekend, I certainly wouldn't travel if I didn't have to (and I don't), but widespread shortages just aren't going to be happening and prices are still WAY below what they were throughout the recession.

    I don't imagine 70's style lines around here, but certainly around the areas directly impacted by the storm you will, especially while electricity is still spotty. That's always common post hurricane, I've been through a few and know the pattern. Markets lash back and forth with inexperienced buyers thinking they can get in on windfall profits, really not the case since overall national consumption doesn't shift much at all and they drop back shortly thereafter. Short of catastrophic damage yet to come to one or more of the major refineries, prices will probably peak early next week and fall by next weekend.

    The "Gas Buddy" app is a good one to use for finding best price in your area, and always helpful to enter in changes when you see them.
     
    I believe that the increase in price is partially because of the reduced refinement capacity, but to a greater degree because of the greed of the oil companies.......we have a disaster......lets just jack up the price........because we can.
     
    Man.......this is wild, my prayers go out to those down there. Will be interesting if I even leave Idaho this weekend, sounds like that just might not be possible.

    You're driving a semi right? If so, then I'm pretty sure the boys hauling back and forth can give you the scoop on where to grab diesel. In fact, your Union should be lining that shit up for y'all if they're sending you.
     
    If the same happened here, and gas went all unobtanium, I'd probably not survive. Everything is at least 40 miles away. Gas is easy (if there is any...). Beer is easy. The rest is not anywhere nearby (except what's at the gas station's convenience store).

    Of all the things I'd miss the most, coffee tops the list.

    If USPS stops, my meds dry up. I take a LOT of meds compliments of Uncle Sugar (VA). My VA meds list is two pages (and some) long. Three inhalers, just for starters... When I talk about my health, I'm actually talking about waking up this side of a dirt nap... Tomorrow morning... I don't usually talk about it in this detail, it can get depressing real quick.

    Greg
     
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    Nope......IBEW Lineman apprentice is all....

    Sorry, I recalled you having mentioned loading up a truck etc. for some reason I was picturing a semi. IIRC, when we had line crews from all over the country down here for Katrina they were coordinating their fuel through FEMA or Civil Defense, or whoever. There were fueling points set up for emergency responders. I would sincerely hope that someone in TX had the same idea? Some of the big private entities down here like chemical plants, shipyards, etc also had tankers brought in just for their employees so they could get them back to work.

    It's now several days after the storm, so just based on my experience from previous storms things will be normalizing rapidly. I'd be willing to bet that you and your crew could find a gas station willing to get you to the front of the line, call you when fuel arrives, etc. The absolute first thing that EVERYONE wants their power back on. Find a gas station manager who's power is still out in their neighborhood and you'll have a friend for life!!
     
    As of a couple days ago, fuel suppliers here (GA) were saying there's unusual waits to get filled at depots.

    I topped off gas and diesel that I keep at home last week and have been topping off my truck daily (I burn a little less than a 1/4 tank daily).

    I believe a relatively small group could start a fuel scare at any time. All they'd have to do is quietly coordinate groups to show up at a couple stations. It'd snowball from there.
     
    Simply put, I think that this may be a bad time to be starting a long trip headed for Texas. Should consider reconsidering.

    I hope this topic doesn't feed a more serious run on fuel, either. Just sayin'...

    I remember the 70's gas lines all too well.

    Greg

    I used to wait in line with my Sportster for an hour only to get the 1 gallon I needed........
     
    We've got a couple hundred thousand bbls ready to go on the pipeline who SAYS they're ready to pump but haven't as of this morning. (87 octane UNL summer grade 7.0 RVP Colonial Grade A2 non-attainment type stuff)
    Here's our issue though: To pump to the P/L, we have to drain the water from the tank which we can't do until we can pump the water out of the dike area. We can't really get the refinery rolling until we have a place to put more gasoline. We've got a good crude inventory and plenty of products as well. We just need to get rid of some damn water before we can crank.
     
    We've got a couple hundred thousand bbls ready to go on the pipeline who SAYS they're ready to pump but haven't as of this morning. (87 octane UNL summer grade 7.0 RVP Colonial Grade A2 non-attainment type stuff)
    Here's our issue though: To pump to the P/L, we have to drain the water from the tank which we can't do until we can pump the water out of the dike area. We can't really get the refinery rolling until we have a place to put more gasoline. We've got a good crude inventory and plenty of products as well. We just need to get rid of some damn water before we can crank.

    You know I have wondered for ever why we can send Natural gas, all over the country, same with electricity from one side to the other. But we don't have a national water system. It would have been so nice to pump all that water, hell 10% up here to the west. Lake Powell and Lake Mead are at about 50% of capacity. Need to bank that shit.
    Grandma always said it was because there isn't any money in it. She is/was probably right.
     
    Lake Powell and Lake Mead are at about 50% of capacity. Need to bank that shit.

    We definitely banked a load of it. Didn't intend to but we did.

    I think you hit on a helluva an idea though. Colonial has 2 36" pipelines that run from Houston to Linden, NJ. See where I'm going here? ;)

     
    When I traveled north from Virginia, on Tuesday, diesel was $2,27 in Virginia, jumped to $3.33 or so crossing into Pa. I havent noticed a jump in Vermont or Mass, seems steady around $2.59. I wouldnt be surprised to see that change rapidly, especially if Irma heads our way.
     
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    No shit. I was working oil exploration in the 90's and remember paying about 75 cents per gallon to fill my work truck and going in the store to buy gallons of drinking water for $1.25 and joking with the store owner about it. I sold my diesel in 2000 when it hit $1.15 per gallon.

    ETA: it was funny until crude dipped to $15 or less per barrel and we all got our asses laid off
     
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    Here's one for ya.

    In 94 I was deep in Mexico down on the coast south of Acapulco. Bought a liter or Gatorade for $00.25 or so, while it was $1.25 in the states. Same bottle, same printing made in and shipped from the USA. That was a wake up.
     
    I am coming up on 30 years, 2/3 rds global 1/3 US do love this business, been through all the cycles a couple times now.

    No shit. I was working oil exploration in the 90's and remember paying about 75 cents per gallon to fill my work truck and going in the store to buy gallons of drinking water for $1.25 and joking with the store owner about it. I sold my diesel in 2000 when it hit $1.15 per gallon.

    ETA: it was funny until crude dipped to $15 or less per barrel and we all got our asses laid off

     
    I am coming up on 30 years, 2/3 rds global 1/3 US do love this business, been through all the cycles a couple times now.

    Agreed, my Big Green friend, of all the shit I still miss the oil patch. The sweltering heat and humidity of SW La and SE Tx this time of year is still in my nostrils. It smelled like sweat and money.
     
    Tucson truck stop prices adjacent I-10 yesterday. $2.50-ish for regular, $3.00-ish for Diesel. I paid $2.25-ish at Costco, longer lines. $1.90-ish last week.

    For me, it's an unavoidable expense, 2 trips weekly to Tucson for Cardiopulmonary rehab, 75 miles one way. Estimating 36 session will equate to a bit more than 5,000 miles of driving. My latest session was terrific; I'm much improved since their start.

    In the 70's, my Father-in-Law owned a gas station, and he would 'borrow' our cars one per day to provide us with gas. We still kept our driving to necessities only, but we always had a near full tank in case of necessity.

    Greg
     
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