Inflation.......... ?

Since 2008? You don't say... <<<<Sarcastic tone

Hobo Hilton said:

Despite rising costs, oil and gas producers globally are expected to book new records in cash flows and offer the best return on capital employed (ROCE) in 15 years, BMO Capital Markets said in a new report cited by Upstream.

Stronger oil and gas prices will be the key driver of record cash flows in the industry, according to an analysis by BMO Capital Markets of 120 oil and gas firms globally.

Oil And Gas Producers To Break New Cash Flow Records | OilPrice.com

Oil and gas producers are on track to book new records in cash flows this year thanks to high prices

oilprice.com

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Hobo Hilton said:

"Over the winter, it wouldn't come as a surprise if some of the developed nations in Europe start to see more serious forms of civil unrest," Soltvedt said.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-09-01/rising-energy-prices-could-fuel-social-unrest-across-europe-this-winter

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That is a serious understatement.

Hobo Hilton said:

New California law could raise fast-food minimum wage to $22 an hour | CNN Business

In a move the restaurant industry warns could raise fast-food prices, California's governor signed into law a bill creating a "Fast Food Council" to determine standards for pay, hours, and working conditions for the state's fast food workers.

www.cnn.com

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make it 1,000 dollars an hour. We can then watch unemployment rise as companies say, fk you, and leave the area.
More price control and break lines a cometh. Elites and politicians want to close independents down and buy their land.

An example of headlines today:

"Stocks tank after higher-than-expected CPI report"

What the fuck was the expected CPI print? Presumably something low end to cause the Fed to reverse course, which seems highly unlikely. Yeah, retail gasoline prices are down, but that's about the only significant drop in prices that matter to the consumer, and even if inflation goes to zero tomorrow, it'd still mean that consumers are paying 25-30% more than two years ago.

Hobo Hilton said:

Am I the only American seeing the "disconnect" between the Government numbers, the news reporters and "We the People" ?

Wholesale inflation declines in August, but prices remain near multi-decade high

The producer price index, which measures inflation at the wholesale level before it reaches consumers, remains at a multi-decade high, the Labor Department said on Wednesday.

www.foxbusiness.com

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No. I am of the belief that analyst and MSM are all disconnected from reality, or outright lying. I’ve been saying it for months. The only thing in the market that looks good are the indexes. Everything else has already crashed.

Hobo Hilton said:

Am I the only American seeing the "disconnect" between the Government numbers, the news reporters and "We the People" ?

Wholesale inflation declines in August, but prices remain near multi-decade high

The producer price index, which measures inflation at the wholesale level before it reaches consumers, remains at a multi-decade high, the Labor Department said on Wednesday.

www.foxbusiness.com

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Who are you going to believe - their numbers, or your lying eyes? When they've been making this stuff up for the last 30 years, some occasional disconnect from reality is to be expected.



This chart is catastrophically bad, and yet it's understated by a factor of 2-3x.

I'm 100% convinced that the big whiff on inflation yesterday was due to the elites looking at the drop in gas prices and believing that everything else has followed because that generally how things worked in the past.

Never underestimate the power of normies who just want this whole mess to go away so they can keep pretending that their houses and retirement accounts really tripled in value over the past ten years.

E. Bryant said:

Never underestimate the power of normies who just want this whole mess to go away so they can keep pretending that their houses and retirement accounts really tripled in value over the past ten years.

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Yup, tried to explain to a friend. When your 401K goes up by 1,000; that's not success, when you have contributed 10K.

Hobo Hilton said:

There are many things money can not buy
View attachment 7950237

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The riches that I seek are waiting on the other side.

The food-at-home index, a measure of price changes at the grocery store, increased by 13.5 percent, which is also a 43-year high. Compared to July, the food index rose by 0.8 percent, and the food-at-home index rose by 0.7 percent.

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DEFLATION​

Deflation is the opposite of inflation; it is a contraction in the supply of money and credit.

The effects of deflation result in fewer currency units (dollars) in circulation and an increase in purchasing power of the remaining units. In other words, your dollars will buy more – not less.

As the deflation takes hold, the prices of goods and services will decline, rather than increase. In and of itself, deflation is a good thing; however, when deflation is severe enough, the result would be a catastrophic economic depression.

Any single one, or combination, of the three types of default (credit default, bank failures, asset price collapse) can result in deflation. This happens because of the huge sums of money involved which are subsequently wiped out.

As hobo pointed out.. a little deflation is a GREAT thing... Inflation is a balloon. inflation pumps up the balloon; deflation makes the balloon get smaller. We need a smaller balloon.

Default – Deflation – Depression, by Kelsey Williams. Credit collapse.

Default – Deflation – Depression. The bond market is telling us that a credit collapse, deflation, and economic depression are on the horizon.

survivalblog.com

babyguppy said:

DEFLATION​

Deflation is the opposite of inflation; it is a contraction in the supply of money and credit.

The effects of deflation result in fewer currency units (dollars) in circulation and an increase in purchasing power of the remaining units. In other words, your dollars will buy more – not less.

As the deflation takes hold, the prices of goods and services will decline, rather than increase. In and of itself, deflation is a good thing; however, when deflation is severe enough, the result would be a catastrophic economic depression.

Any single one, or combination, of the three types of default (credit default, bank failures, asset price collapse) can result in deflation. This happens because of the huge sums of money involved which are subsequently wiped out.

As hobo pointed out.. a little deflation is a GREAT thing... Inflation is a balloon. inflation pumps up the balloon; deflation makes the balloon get smaller. We need a smaller balloon.

Default – Deflation – Depression, by Kelsey Williams. Credit collapse.

Default – Deflation – Depression. The bond market is telling us that a credit collapse, deflation, and economic depression are on the horizon.

survivalblog.com

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I want to agree, but unfortunately there is no smaller balloon when the debt is as high as it is. When it starts to collapse it will NOT stop. The major HUGE reason is that most of those dollars are electric - they are not physical. You cant hide them under your bed like in times past. Nor can you withdraw them if there is a hold on your account or a bank holiday. To add to this, most US dollars are NOT held in the US - they are held overseas.

To make it worse: Pensions are mostly invested in stocks, bonds and other instruments that are no cash. This means when the dump to the market hits the pensions are insolvent. Deflation doesn't help when pensions can't send you the money.

We are simply at a point with everything so fractionally backstopped with dollars the evaporation and subsequent bank calls will destroy almost everything due to the follow-on effects. This is because almost everyone is in debt of some sort. When extrapolated, it becomes a literal house of cards.

lariat said:

I want to agree, but unfortunately there is no smaller balloon when the debt is as high as it is. When it starts to collapse it will NOT stop. The major HUGE reason is that most of those dollars are electric - they are not physical. You cant hide them under your bed like in times past. Nor can you withdraw them if there is a hold on your account or a bank holiday. To add to this, most US dollars are NOT held in the US - they are held overseas.

To make it worse: Pensions are mostly invested in stocks, bonds and other instruments that are no cash. This means when the dump to the market hits the pensions are insolvent. Deflation doesn't help when pensions can't send you the money.

We are simply at a point with everything so fractionally backstopped with dollars the evaporation and subsequent bank calls will destroy almost everything due to the follow-on effects. This is because almost everyone is in debt of some sort. When extrapolated, it becomes a literal house of cards.

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I think you can hide them under your bed to some extent. Land, food, alternative energy sources, a home, ammo, guns, physical goods. Now I am not sure how much any of that will make a difference if things get real bad, but it could give a person/family a head start or at least create a buffer zone. until you can figure out what survival looks like. Leaning on pensions and a 401k is a relatively new thing that I doubt my grandfather would have accepted without quite a bit of skepticism. That generation of ww2 vets would have had a plan B for sure. Probably multiple backup plans involving root cellars, weapons, and anything short of a nuclear fallout shelter like in blast from the past.

One good thing to take from this slow motion collapse is that most of us have been given a chance to shift gears. 2008 should have been a warning. The last few presidents prior to Trump should have been another. Anyone without blinders on has seen all our goods being produced overseas and government taking control of many facets of our life. We knew it was setting up for something, likely not good. No one knew what it was exactly going to look like, but it wasn't going to be in the favor of commoners. Just 2 and 3 generations back our families learned the lessons of the depression and the aftermath of ww2 and how to come out the other side. We have been given time to short up our households and do what little we can to steer the outcome. More people have returned to the woods and fled the cities in my lifetime. People are learning the survival skills again. I have hope we will come out the other side stronger.

What kind of mortgage loan allows a "call", particularly on a primary residence?

Inflation, deflation...
So, how much ammo and how much gold are we talking here?

very very few loans are issued like that so it's not a concern to overall re mkt.

Hobo Hilton said:

Obviously a concern to the folks I communicated with. Enough concern for them to sell off property and pay off the mortgage on the home they live in. Again, I have little knowledge of mortgages being called in. However if a bank is in dire straits they will do everything possible to stay afloat. History repeating.
Just one more thing to ponder.

It may sound harsh to demand full repayment, but the alternative would force lenders to sue every month for the life of the loan when you fail to make a payment, which would not be a preferred outcome. For this reason, acceleration clauses are present in all contracts involving repayment.

The Acceleration Clause In Real Estate Loans

A mortgage acceleration clause means that your entire mortgage balance becomes due if you default on your repayment. Learn more about the acceleration clause.

www.rocketmortgage.com

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my only point is it won't have any effect on the mtg or re mkt due to size. We're talking .001% of mtgs written kind of small. For those people that do have them, you get what you paid for and it's foolish to give anyone else that much power over your assets willingly.

Key note "if you've fallen behind in payments."
Yes, that's a standard clause.
But the banks can't just run around demanding full payments.

NoDopes said:

Key note "if you've fallen behind in payments."
Yes, that's a standard clause.
But the banks can't just run around demanding full payments.

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Yes they can. If they write it in and you don’t catch it or dont dispute it, it’s legal. I always -like always - ask about pre-payment and callable clauses. Take that shit out or we aren’t doing business. Most credit unions play ball, others I have had to give the boot to. That’s business, and the banks need to understand they hold very few of the cards they think they do.

lariat said:

I want to agree, but unfortunately there is no smaller balloon when the debt is as high as it is. When it starts to collapse it will NOT stop. The major HUGE reason is that most of those dollars are electric - they are not physical. You cant hide them under your bed like in times past. Nor can you withdraw them if there is a hold on your account or a bank holiday. To add to this, most US dollars are NOT held in the US - they are held overseas.

To make it worse: Pensions are mostly invested in stocks, bonds and other instruments that are no cash. This means when the dump to the market hits the pensions are insolvent. Deflation doesn't help when pensions can't send you the money.

We are simply at a point with everything so fractionally backstopped with dollars the evaporation and subsequent bank calls will destroy almost everything due to the follow-on effects. This is because almost everyone is in debt of some sort. When extrapolated, it becomes a literal house of cards.

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It’s called the great reset.

Mainstream media keeps spouting off that gas prices are falling. I paid 11¢ more per gallon than I did last week.

If this holds it is an unintentional masterstroke by businesses - they have moved their rent costs to the employee without materially increasing their salary to cover the costs that they put off on them.

lariat said:

If this holds it is an unintentional masterstroke by businesses - they have moved their rent costs to the employee without materially increasing their salary to cover the costs that they put off on them.

MSN

www.msn.com

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I’ve said many times that businesses are retarded for not allowing remote work. It’s not just rent.

Utilities
Printers
Paper
Pens and pencils
Shit paper
Hand soap
Break rooms
Internet
IT support
Parking

And much more.

Bigfatcock said:

I’ve said many times that businesses are retarded for not allowing remote work. It’s not just rent.

Utilities
Printers
Paper
Pens and pencils
Shit paper
Hand soap
Break rooms
Internet
IT support
Parking

And much more.

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But muh culture. And accountability. Won't you think of all the leadership that knows nothing but "management by walking around"?

I've got about zero interest in working for/with companies or employees that can't figure out remote work. Do you need to be on-site to do your job? Cool - I expect you to be there. Otherwise, get your shit done, communicate with your team members as appropriate (which shockingly doesn't always require a scheduled meeting), and I don't give a fuck if you do that from a beach in Florida or a cave in Kentucky.

Bigfatcock said:

I’ve said many times that businesses are retarded for not allowing remote work. It’s not just rent.

Utilities
Printers
Paper
Pens and pencils
Shit paper
Hand soap
Break rooms
Internet
IT support
Parking

And much more.

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Then the 'boss' can't look across his kingdom at the serfs working for him. Ego's need stroking

I went shopping yesterday at the supermarket. I now have buyer's remorse.

E. Bryant said:

But muh culture. And accountability. Won't you think of all the leadership that knows nothing but "management by walking around"?

I've got about zero interest in working for/with companies or employees that can't figure out remote work. Do you need to be on-site to do your job? Cool - I expect you to be there. Otherwise, get your shit done, communicate with your team members as appropriate (which shockingly doesn't always require a scheduled meeting), and I don't give a fuck if you do that from a beach in Florida or a cave in Kentucky.

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I believe management is afraid that they’ll be exposed for how irrelevant they are.

Bigfatcock said:

I believe management is afraid that they’ll be exposed for how irrelevant they are.

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Yep. I was lucky enough to start my career with several middle managers who were promoted to that level because they were so competent. They whipped me into shape pretty good. I'm not sure that happens quite as often nowadays.