This sounds ominous, but in reality the two major changes, that people substitute goods when relative prices change (say pasta for rice) and that there should be some sort of calculation for product quality (computers are the great example) make the inflation numbers more more economically realistic than does a more fixed basket of goods. It would be great to publish both, but the new one is preferable to the old on an economic basis.
If post #1084 is right, imagine how much Janet Yellen gets...Gross...
She is likely wrong, but the important message in her comments is that it is because she was wrong in her predictions before, specifically in 08-09, that she is unwilling to use the same analytical framework she did during that period with the same level of certainty she had before. That is the kind of intellect that adapts and wins. That said, calling for deflation is a pretty bold move, even if the breakdown in certain commodity prices is something I have pointed out here many times. I don't think you will see a breakdown in oil prices without a pretty significant recession, though the collapsing food commodity prices may well continue. I just don't think there is, at this point, enough softness to break oil prices, and not by a long shot.Cathie Wood (Arc Investment) manages $50 billion in assets. She sees deflation coming into play next year. Interesting theories.
While many market participants are concerned about rising prices, the hot-handed investor expects deflation amid a breakdown in commodity prices, a failure of companies that fell behind innovation, company stockpiling and innovation trends taking off.
Cathie Wood disputes Jack Dorsey's hyperinflation warning, says prices will fall after holidays
Cathie Wood took to Twitter to expound on deflation after Dorsey tweeted "Hyperinflation is going to change everything. It's happening."www.cnbc.com
Deflation occurs when prices go down. You have rampant money creation at the moment. In order for deflation to occur you will need a lack of general market demand and monetary destruction through defaulting loans. She is basically saying that she expects the Fed to fail.Cathie Wood (Arc Investment) manages $50 billion in assets. She sees deflation coming into play next year. Interesting theories.
While many market participants are concerned about rising prices, the hot-handed investor expects deflation amid a breakdown in commodity prices, a failure of companies that fell behind innovation, company stockpiling and innovation trends taking off.
Cathie Wood disputes Jack Dorsey's hyperinflation warning, says prices will fall after holidays
Cathie Wood took to Twitter to expound on deflation after Dorsey tweeted "Hyperinflation is going to change everything. It's happening."
I wouldn’t let that nasty cackling whore pay me to suck my dick!
Hmm, maybe Google and AWS giving away training and services for AI are driving this into a commodity. I wouldn't predict our economy on that data point.
www.foxbusiness.com That is a good article.... The comments section bring the situation to light.... The majority of American's have noted the increasing cost of food.... There some optimistic articles by fund managers but most are saying nothing will change for at least 6 months. If the "seasonal adjustments" are removed from the reports on the economy stagflation seems to be setting in.Del Monte produce raising prices in response to 'unprecedented market conditions' and 'inflationary pressures'
The Del Monte produce company has announced that it will be raising costs on certain products in response to “unprecedented market conditions” and “inflationary pressures.”
Claim force majeure and end the agreement. Do it now while time is on your side.
www.foxbusiness.com Because he will either back out claiming he cant do it due to rising costs of materials and labor shortages or he will half-ass it and you will get a piece of shit that you paid for and tried to force him to build in a pissed off state of mind while losing money at the same time. Then you can repay to have it all done again or have constant maintenance to band-aid repairs.
Interesting you would bring Elaine up at this point in time. I went back and read her thoughts in an article (Link Below) from May 15, 1991.... 30 years ago she was on top of her game by using some reliable market indicators that are mentioned in the article. The worldwide market is a different animal today... This is why the economy is beginning to stagnate. Similar to some phrases with Nautical origin's.... Tide Over, Hand The Sails, The Doldrums, Flat Calm, Becalmed, etc.
lol. Literally lol.Interesting you would bring Elaine up at this point in time. I went back and read her thoughts in an article (Link Below) from May 15, 1991.... 30 years ago she was on top of her game by using some reliable market indicators that are mentioned in the article. The worldwide market is a different animal today... This is why the economy is beginning to stagnate. Similar to some phrases with Nautical origin's.... Tide Over, Hand The Sails, The Doldrums, Flat Calm, Becalmed, etc.
The largest fund managers are rolling the dice while playing with other folks money... They are also hedged in mega funds where the small investors can't play.
ELAINE GARZARELLI PREDICTS A NINE-MONTH RALLY
WHEN IT comes to predicting where the stock market is headed, not too many analysts lately have been better than Shearson Lehman Brothers strategist Elaine Garzarelli. Miss Garzarelli was onebuffalonews.com
WASHINGTON—The Biden administration is in talks to offer immigrant families that were separated during the Trump administration around $450,000 a person in compensation, according to people familiar with the matter, as several agencies work to resolve lawsuits filed on behalf of parents and children who say the government subjected them to lasting psychological trauma.
www.wsj.com WASHINGTON—The Biden administration is in talks to offer immigrant families that were separated during the Trump administration around $450,000 a person in compensation, according to people familiar with the matter, as several agencies work to resolve lawsuits filed on behalf of parents and children who say the government subjected them to lasting psychological trauma.
WSJ News Exclusive | U.S. in Talks to Pay Hundreds of Millions to Families Separated at Border
The government is considering payments of $450,000 a person affected by the Trump administration’s zero-tolerance policy in 2018 for asylum seekers illegally crossing the border.
Keep digging that hole idiot. He can't stop now. Just keep digging. With his favorable public opinion evaporating like dry ice on a warm day, it will be obvious what needs to happen and those not engaged will at least step aside and watch. Accelerationism in action. We are watching the car drive off the cliff in double speed.
www.wsj.com 
www.bbc.com 
Honestly, I would love to look at this if you have a link. It sounds interesting. The only thing I could find was this, which actually shows the opposite of what you are saying:
Sure thing, but it will have to wait until Monday as I can't access those data sets from where I sit. So I'll have to explain less rigorously, for the moment. To understand inflation you need to take into account purchasing power.
That’s what I’m waiting on. $4.00-$4.50 per gallon gas in the south east should start it off.
Right, I get what he, and you, are saying is basically to look at your standard free cash flow discount model and rather than to simply use a risk free rate plus ERP as a discount rate, to try to estimate an inflation rate and then apply your ERP. That is all well and good, though the concept of using a risk free rate is to allow the market to estimate what the cost of money is rather than to estimate it yourself. It seems that both methods, along with using individual hurdle rates for investments, are basically trying to get at the same thing, though none particularly does it perfectly. Were there a 1:1 ratio between monetary expansion and the cost of living, even including inflation in financial assets, it would be easier, but there isn't. At least there isn't short term in that we all kind of agree, for the sake of simplicity, that MV=PQ, though we all also kind of agree that it doesn't quite do it either, but the basic concept that there is are two factors (M and V) rather than one factor with regard to inflation, at least short term. Perhaps long term V is basically a constant and M is all we have, but that is yet to be determined, IMO.
So transitory it is? I mean this is literally the definition of transitory.
One of the mega fund managers said, two months, that the secret to getting all of the shelves fully stocked is to lower the value of the USD to the point where people will stop buying things.
You mean, when demand goes up and supply goes down, that prices will rise? Less buying power with our Bernanke, oops I meant Powell, bucks?
No. Hobo’s quote deals with devaluing the dollar so that prices go up so high that purchases are deferred in favor of necessities. IOW, raise prices so much through monetary inflation that the current supply is adequate to meet demand.
Bingo. It’s the use of markets forces to create desired outcomes. Just like taxation. Psychology and economics are interrelated.
Two years ago I wanted a tandem dump trailer to pull behind my truck. I'm getting old and tired of shoveling top soil, garden soil, etc off of my flat bed trailer. I'm retired and it would not have been for a contracting business, just around my homestead.. A new one was $4,000. When the pandemic hit and everyone became a contractor, there were no dump trailers to buy or rent. Few new dump trailers were fabricated during the pandemic due to businesses short on labor. Now, every truck equipment sales yard has many of those dump trailers. The price for the exact one is now $9,000.... They don't seem to be moving much inventory.
They were $7,999 around here back in June.
Yep, yep, yep ...... I'm with you. Funny thing is my eating habits have changed as I age and I just don't eat as much as I used to. I'm on a one man homestead with a garden. I'm watching my children's grocery bills to feed my grandchildren / three teenagers.... I encourage anyone who will listen to start growing some sort of vegetables and get a few chickens...... Just in case.
Wise words. A little late in the year to be growing now though!
