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Inflation.......... ?

Inflation, inflation, inflation .... excuse my ignorance. I didn't know this thread existed.
So, what happens when hyper inflation hits home? When the US dollar is no longer the petrol standard currency. When it is no longer accepted as currency because it's been devaluated beyond recognition.
So....what happens then?
 
Inflation, inflation, inflation .... excuse my ignorance. I didn't know this thread existed.
So, what happens when hyper inflation hits home? When the US dollar is no longer the petrol standard currency. When it is no longer accepted as currency because it's been devaluated beyond recognition.
So....what happens then?
In other words, when all useless fiat currency comes rushing back state side. It holds no value abroad, and there is enough quantitive easing to last several lifetimes.
 
In other words, when all useless fiat currency comes rushing back state side. It holds no value abroad, and there is enough quantitive easing to last several lifetimes.
The same thing that always happens with these circumstances. Review semi-failed 2nd and 3rd world countries who have been through it. No one is coming to save any of us. The system is broken and cannot be repaired without transiting the coming misery. Lots of suicides of those who believed they were special.
 
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Inflation, inflation, inflation .... excuse my ignorance. I didn't know this thread existed.
So, what happens when hyper inflation hits home? When the US dollar is no longer the petrol standard currency. When it is no longer accepted as currency because it's been devaluated beyond recognition.
So....what happens then?
You had best have "something" to barter with, grow your own food, have a never ending supply of potable water....
 
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The same thing that always happens with these circumstances. Review semi-failed 2nd and 3rd world countries who have been through it. No one is coming to save any of us. The system is broken and cannot be repaired without transiting the coming misery. Lots of suicides of those who believed they were special.
You had best have "something" to barter with, grow your own food, have a never ending supply of potable water....
I am fully aware. I asked for some who may not be thinking along those lines.
 
I am fully aware. I asked for some who may not be thinking along those lines.

Those not thinking along these lines are in "Denial" that bad things will happen. You can waste your time, talk until you are blue in the face and never change their mind set.
A human either has a Survival instinct or they do not have a survival instinct.
One of the "Law's of Nature" covers this well.
1694919780528.png
 
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It's really not inflation.... It is the reality that the purchasing power of the USD is shrinking.

When was the term inflation first used?
Since the middle of the 19th century, when the word inflation was first used to refer to economic phenomena, economists have disagreed about its meaning.


Premiums and deductibles for policies required by mortgage lenders have shot up two- to three-fold over the last five years, frustrated developers say.

Developers of apartment buildings across the US are raising alarms as property insurance rates continue to rise, a trend that threatens to seal off the pipeline for much-needed housing construction — especially new apartments with affordable units.

 
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Easy fix - stop buying new cars - that will fix auto manufacturers, the union, the dealers, and the banks
A lot of those vehicles are bought with your taxpayer money. Next time you drive by the local US Forest Service lot, look at all the vehicles that just sit. Seems the Government has one vehicle for every employee.
The "stop buying" will come when American's run out of credit.

 
A lot of those vehicles are bought with your taxpayer money. Next time you drive by the local US Forest Service lot, look at all the vehicles that just sit. Seems the Government has one vehicle for every employee.
The "stop buying" will come when American's run out of credit.

Yep - during the auto bailouts - government bought a ton of stripped F150s - we called them "Obama Trucks".
 
Have another sip of Koolaid. :ROFLMAO:

“Theoretically, conceptually, it makes sense,” Claudia Sahm, former Federal Reserve economist and founder of Sahm Consulting, told CNBC. ”[Consumers] can kind of make it happen by changing their behavior.”

 
Leap frog scenario:
Higher cost, Higher wages, Higher cost, Higher wages.
The only way to stop inflation is to raise the interest rate above the rate of inflation.
Paul Volcker proved that theory.

The hires will include full-time, part-time and seasonal warehouse and delivery employees, Amazon said. Hourly wages for those roles will range between $17 and $28, and the company is offering sign-on bonuses worth $1,000 to $3,000 in some locations.
The company said warehouse and delivery employees will now make $20.50 an hour on average, up from $19 an hour. Amazon has gradually raised the average starting pay for its frontline workforce in recent years, amid growing labor tensions.


 
In order to tame inflation the interest rate must remain higher than the inflation rate. Fact.
The longer this drags out, the more "We the People" will lose.
__________________________
Two Federal Reserve policymakers expressed support Friday for keeping interest rates elevated as the battle against too-high inflation continues.
In separate speeches, Governor Michelle Bowman and Boston Fed President Susan Collins said there’s still the possibility that the Fed will have to raise rates further if economic data doesn’t cooperate.
Bowman’s remarks were more pointed as she indicated that progress has not been sufficient in bringing inflation down to the Fed’s 2% target.
“I continue to expect that further rate hikes will likely be needed to return inflation to 2% in a timely way,” she said in prepared remarks to a bankers group on Vail, Colorado


 
Thought I might find a pair of jeans at my local thrift store.
I was shocked at the price for off brand, worn out blue jeans..... $9.99 a pair.
They were $4.99 before the pandemic.
Price doubled in 3 years.
View attachment 8233129
Well it's a good thing it's only doubled.

A year ago this past summer, my truck was put out of commission by a 20yr old punk who failed to yield right of way. I fought with his insurance company for almost 3 mons. By the time I received monies, via settlement, most of it was already spoken for playing catchup on bills and what not. My truck was 29yrs old too. I didn't receive much. At least not enough to replace a 160k mile diesel. Everything I found privately owned was 200k mile, rusted out, and needing repairs. Average asking price was 10 grand. The used dealerships were all $35-40K for 135k mile diesel trucks. New prices are off the charts. $100k plus.

We're in for a hell of a ride.
 
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Well it's a good thing it's only doubled.

A year ago this past summer, my truck was put out of commission by a 20yr old punk who failed to yield right of way. I fought with his insurance company for almost 3 mons. By the time I received monies, via settlement, most of it was already spoken for playing catchup on bills and what not. My truck was 29yrs old too. I didn't receive much. At least not enough to replace a 160k mile diesel. Everything I found privately owned was 200k mile, rusted out, and needing repairs. Average asking price was 10 grand. The used dealerships were all $35-40K for 135k mile diesel trucks. New prices are off the charts. $100k plus.

We're in for a hell of a ride.
Something I started to live by after a few recessions... One is none, two is one... My vehicles are older and paid for. Yes, I know not many people can live like that.
That hell of a ride you mention will be hardest on those who have the most to lose. Those living on credit will endure a hard landing.
 
Here are some factual, cold, hard numbers to see what it will take, as far as wages, to keep up with inflation for the next 3 years.
I'm not seeing this as the workers getting ahead, only breaking even at the 3 year mark.
The road will get bumpy.
_______________
The new agreement raises base hourly pay for production workers by almost 20% over three years, and by more than 25% for trade workers, the Canadian autoworker union Unifor said. It also gives permanent workers a $10,000 bonus and adds a cost-of-living adjustment, a mechanism that adjusts wages in line with inflation.
Ford described the pact as a 15% wage increase over the three year life of the agreement. But, according to the union, that figure doesn't include compounding of each annual increase or the initial cost-of-living increase, both of which should increase workers' actual pay.


 
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Wouldn't be easier if the feds stopped counterfeiting? :rolleyes:

We, well many of us, all know that is not the end goal.
 
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Wouldn't be easier if the feds stopped counterfeiting? :rolleyes:

We, well many of us, all know that is not the end goal.
This is why foreign countries and US politicians are turning cash into physical gold.
Nothing being hidden... It's all in plain sight.
Americans with cash are buying those toys rather than let the cash be eaten up by inflation.
You don't have to look very hard to validate these happenings.

 
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gonna be hard to explain what i think i see,but will try. for decades our economy has been built on "newness","the latest thing",the "upgrade" you can't live without. we have to keep pumping newer products into the stream or it will dry up and crash.
the auto industry learned this in the 50s, if you were poor,you had to drive your jalopy into the ground. if rich,you got a new car every year. if middle class,you HAD to get one every 2 years. now they've learned how to force you to buy something with all kinds of expensive digital/electric shit that you don't need,that doesn't work and is expensive or impossible to fix when it breaks and it will. obsolescence in the mind of the consumer all planned. look at all the viable used vehicles sitting on lots unsold.
major appliances used to last 20-30 years. now planned to break and be unfixable in 7. don't make parts to fix,so have to buy a new one.
the digital industry has run with that big time. got to have the newest upgrades to be "with the modern world". is there anything that an average person NEEDS to do on a comp that can't be done with windows 98? that whole industry is nothing but a brilliant scam to force people into having to use their crap in order to just get along in our artificially manipulated world. a whole class of people are being replaced by machines and being put out of work. monitoring and controlling the masses has been made a viable option for the elites. yea,i'm a luddite.
look at rifle scopes. shot show time you can buy an excellent used scope on secondary market for half price that is way superior to anything you used in the 70s. same goes for guns in general. pre 1970 mdl 70,700 inferior to an AI? yea,but are you really in need of the diff at 5x the price?
fishing tackle? does a TLD really catch more fish than a senator?
yes,improvement and upgrading is a good thing but at what cost and with what goal?
guess the above is a reason madison avenue is such a success. like said above quite buying any new cars for 2 years and the auto industry will self correct. some here would say the same about chinese stuff. that's a different subject though.
 
gonna be hard to explain what i think i see,but will try. for decades our economy has been built on "newness","the latest thing",the "upgrade" you can't live without. we have to keep pumping newer products into the stream or it will dry up and crash.
the auto industry learned this in the 50s, if you were poor,you had to drive your jalopy into the ground. if rich,you got a new car every year. if middle class,you HAD to get one every 2 years. now they've learned how to force you to buy something with all kinds of expensive digital/electric shit that you don't need,that doesn't work and is expensive or impossible to fix when it breaks and it will. obsolescence in the mind of the consumer all planned. look at all the viable used vehicles sitting on lots unsold.
major appliances used to last 20-30 years. now planned to break and be unfixable in 7. don't make parts to fix,so have to buy a new one.
the digital industry has run with that big time. got to have the newest upgrades to be "with the modern world". is there anything that an average person NEEDS to do on a comp that can't be done with windows 98? that whole industry is nothing but a brilliant scam to force people into having to use their crap in order to just get along in our artificially manipulated world. a whole class of people are being replaced by machines and being put out of work. monitoring and controlling the masses has been made a viable option for the elites. yea,i'm a luddite.
look at rifle scopes. shot show time you can buy an excellent used scope on secondary market for half price that is way superior to anything you used in the 70s. same goes for guns in general. pre 1970 mdl 70,700 inferior to an AI? yea,but are you really in need of the diff at 5x the price?
fishing tackle? does a TLD really catch more fish than a senator?
yes,improvement and upgrading is a good thing but at what cost and with what goal?
guess the above is a reason madison avenue is such a success. like said above quite buying any new cars for 2 years and the auto industry will self correct. some here would say the same about chinese stuff. that's a different subject though.
You did an excellent job of explaining. I agree with you.
 
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Inflation, inflation, inflation .... excuse my ignorance. I didn't know this thread existed.
So, what happens when hyper inflation hits home? When the US dollar is no longer the petrol standard currency. When it is no longer accepted as currency because it's been devaluated beyond recognition.
So....what happens then?
Well, here it is... Many view points.. Some people do without. Some people continue to run up credit card debt. Some people go find a higher paying job.
Funny thing about the USD losing it's purchasing power, it's across the board to every American, regardless of their income level. The knife cuts both directions.
____________
The average price for all used cars sold increased 33% between 2019 and this year, rising to $27,133 from $20,398, according to the site.

 
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Obvious, the FED Reserve has now painted themselves into a corner... LOL.... And it only took them 3 years.
Interest rates must be higher than inflation rate.
___________
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is warning that interest rates could go up quite a bit further as policymakers face the prospects of elevated inflation and slow growth.
Though Federal Reserve officials have indicated that they are near the end of their rate-hiking cycle, the head of the largest U.S. bank by assets said that may not necessarily be the case.


 
Precious Metals: prices down today. Just saying.View attachment 8236892
Yep, even Costco is selling one ounce gold bars. Gold Eagles are down about $15 from last week. At the rate things are going, this is a good time to pick up some physical. When the unraveling becomes evident the price will go up quickly. The big players / foreign countries are buying like never before. A sign of things to come.
 
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The Government lies continue:
Friday’s personal consumption expenditures price index reading, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, helped perk up the market. So-called core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.1% in August and 3.9% year over year. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected that the core PCE would advance 0.2% on a monthly basis and 3.9% year over year.
3.9% year over year.....???

This is fine 2.jpg
 
Here are some factual, cold, hard numbers to see what it will take, as far as wages, to keep up with inflation for the next 3 years.
I'm not seeing this as the workers getting ahead, only breaking even at the 3 year mark.
The road will get bumpy.
_______________
The new agreement raises base hourly pay for production workers by almost 20% over three years, and by more than 25% for trade workers, the Canadian autoworker union Unifor said. It also gives permanent workers a $10,000 bonus and adds a cost-of-living adjustment, a mechanism that adjusts wages in line with inflation.
Ford described the pact as a 15% wage increase over the three year life of the agreement. But, according to the union, that figure doesn't include compounding of each annual increase or the initial cost-of-living increase, both of which should increase workers' actual pay.


Ford knows that with the mandated move to EVs that many (most?) of the workers will no longer be required as the ICE motor factories and transmission factories are closed. New EV factorys will be highly automated negating many assembly jobs and AI will reduce the white collar jobs. Skynet and Universal Basic Income are coming
 
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The Government lies continue:
Friday’s personal consumption expenditures price index reading, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, helped perk up the market. So-called core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.1% in August and 3.9% year over year. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected that the core PCE would advance 0.2% on a monthly basis and 3.9% year over year.
3.9% year over year.....???

View attachment 8237913
Government has to lie about inflation or they must pay higher cost of living increases to Social Security, government pensions, and all other government payrolls. Wait until January and see if they change their tune.
 
Government has to lie about inflation or they must pay higher cost of living increases to Social Security, government pensions, and all other government payrolls. Wait until January and see if they change their tune.
True... And Jerome Powell is using that old line "This is complicated and you need to try and understand what we are saying"........
Sounds like a used car salesman when a buyer returns a lemon.
He could have jumped interest rates 2 years ago and all of this fiasco would be in the rear view mirror.
Jerome is just one more politician wearing a different hat.
 
The FED Reserve is failing to tame inflation. They have pulled a number out of thin air, "2% inflation is their target". Why has that been accepted as good enough to get by ?
Until interest rates are raised above the inflation rate, "We the People" will be on the losing end of this equation.
Now, paying someone $20 / hour to make your burger continues to fan the fires of inflation.
 
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-6-trillion-us-government-040643412.html
Nearly a third of all outstanding US government debt is set to mature in the next 12 months, according to an analysis from asset management firm Apollo. A chart from Chief Economist Torsten Sløk shows that the share of US public debt set to mature in a year or less has steadily risen toward pandemic-era levels and is now at 31%. In terms of dollar amount, that's $7.6 trillion, a high not seen since early 2021. In addition, public debt maturing in the near term accounts for more than a quarter of US GDP. However, this is below its 2020 peak, when it made up a significantly larger share. Still, Sløk said the $7.6 trillion coming due is one source of upward pressure on US rates.
The estimate comes as federal deficits have exploded in recent years, sharply elevating the trajectory of US debt. The Treasury Department has already auctioned $1 trillion in bonds just within this quarter. Meanwhile, borrowing costs have soared in the last year and a half as the Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive tightening campaign, raising the government's debt-servicing costs. As of Friday afternoon, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.25%, and three-month yield was 5.47%. Rates have also been under pressure from the Fed's quantitative tightening program, which removed a top buyer from the bond market.
 
Raphael Bostic says the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates high enough to get U.S. inflation back down to 2%. Uncredited.

LOL.... It's only going to sting for just a second. More false hope. Interest rates must go above inflation rate to get inflation under control. 2% inflation target is not acceptable. Awaken the sheep.
 
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Unintended consequences caused by out of control inflation. Arriving in yesterday's mail was our 6, month auto insurance greeting from State Farm Insurance, and it should of had a warning on the outside of the envelope. In the past 12 months our policies have doubled in price. We are a accident/ticket free household with above average coverage by choice. The State of Florida senate played some backdoor uninsured motorist coverage requirements, requiring a declaration signed by each policy holder for stacking vs. non stacking uninsured or under insured vehicles. They did not exempt policy holders who already selected non-stacking coverage that is not legally required, and then automatically changed the policy to stacking insurance which is more expensive. The unintended consequences for this house is; we will be seeking out a different company and less coverage for our policies, goodbye Jake. With all these external required expense increases chipping away at household income, how soon before disposable income disappears?
 
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Unintended consequences caused by out of control inflation. Arriving in yesterday's mail was our 6, month auto insurance greeting from State Farm Insurance, and it should of had a warning on the outside of the envelope. In the past 12 months our policies have doubled in price. We are a accident/ticket free household with above average coverage by choice. The State of Florida senate played some backdoor uninsured motorist coverage requirements, requiring a declaration signed by each policy holder for stacking vs. non stacking uninsured or under insured vehicles. They did not exempt policy holders who already selected non-stacking coverage that is not legally required, and then automatically changed the policy to stacking insurance which is more expensive. The unintended consequences for this house is; we will be seeking out a different company and less coverage for our policies, goodbye Jake. With all these external required expense increases chipping away at household income, how soon before disposable income disappears?
The domino's are falling faster than "We the People" can comprehend. The doubling of the cost of your policies doubled the number of uninsured motorist on your roads.
When that uninsured motorist T Bones you and takes off running, just call a cop. What ever you do, don't chase him down and hold for the cops to show up. I did that, once.
Should you be driving a vintage Ford F-250 diesel you will get 50% of the money needed to replace with a similar pickup.
Jerome Powell says "A soft landing is on the way".
 
You keep repeating this.

What do you think the inflation rate is?

What do you think the interest rates are?
Look at the inflation rates over the past 4 years, not just the past month. Just today another member shared his auto insurance has doubled since the last billing cycle.
I'll work in round numbers. Inflation rate is 10%. Refer to the 4 year contracts being signed with 40% increase over the next 4 years.
1696347884616.png

A person has to "get away" from the numbers the Government is posting. Those are politically fabricated. The COLA numbers are cherry picked from all over the nation.
Credit card rates are 25% +/-
Wages are leap frogging the inflation rate... This adds gasoline to the fire.
If the FED jumped interest rates to 12% - 14% inflation would be tamed.... Just as Paul Volcker did. This has been proven. I bought Certificates of Deposit that were paying 14% after Volcker jumped rates. Quite an incentive to save money.
Where were you in the 70's ? I was running my on fabrication business in South Louisiana. I never missed a beat.
Doug _ Glen Welding.jpg


 
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The domino's are falling faster than "We the People" can comprehend. The doubling of the cost of your policies doubled the number of uninsured motorist on your roads.
When that uninsured motorist T Bones you and takes off running, just call a cop. What ever you do, don't chase him down and hold for the cops to show up. I did that, once.
Should you be driving a vintage Ford F-250 diesel you will get 50% of the money needed to replace with a similar pickup.
Jerome Powell says "A soft landing is on the way".
You make an excellent point, I had not considered that simply raising policy costs are in fact creating more uninsured drivers, every action has a reaction. Funny thing on vehicles, they say as soon is you drive that vehicle off the dealer lot it depreciates but the insurance cost over the lifetime ownership will only continue to escalate. Myself, kept last vehicle for over a decade, with the cost of vehicles these days, think of how much tax money is generated every time that vehicle is flipped over its lifetime.
 
Honestly, it’s cheaper for me to pay the fine for driving without insurance than it is to have insurance.

I get a ticket every 10 years or so, and if I can keep that record going then I’d save over $50,000 in insurance cost. I’d say having to pay couple of hundred dollar ticket every decade is a fair trade off.
 
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Worldwide

MANILA, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Philippine inflation quickened for a second straight month in September due to increases in food and transport costs, the statistics agency said on Thursday, opening the door to further central bank interest rate hikes.
The consumer price index (PHCPI=ECI) rose to 6.1% in September, blowing past the 5.3% forecast in a Reuters poll, and hit the top end of the central bank's 5.3% to 6.1% projection for the month.
That brought year-to-date average inflation to 6.6%, still outside the central bank's 2% to 4% target for the year.
Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and fuel items, eased to 5.9% from 6.1% in August.
Ahead of Thursday's data, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr lifted a cap on the price of rice, the staple in a country dependent on imports of the grain.


 
raising policy costs are in fact creating more uninsured drivers,
So is open southern border. Millions of illegal aliens in cars without insurance.
Honestly, it’s cheaper for me to pay the fine for driving without insurance than it is to have insurance.

I get a ticket every 10 years or so, and if I can keep that record going then I’d save over $50,000 in insurance cost. I’d say having to pay couple of hundred dollar ticket every decade is a fair trade off.
In Texas, you are supposed to prove insurance every year to get your annual registration sticker.
Apparently there is a thriving online market place for fake stickers too. When cops pull over or catch one of these fuckers causing an accident they just let them go.

Where's wade?
 
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CHICAGO, Oct 5 (Reuters) - Chicken prices at U.S. grocery stores have hit record highs and should stay elevated as Tyson Foods and other companies dial back poultry production to boost margins while inflation-weary shoppers buy chicken instead of beef and pork.
Higher chicken prices should improve earnings at top producers Tyson (TSN.N) and Pilgrim's Pride (PPC.O), but will pinch consumers' pockets as they try to save money by turning away from higher-end proteins. One index shows chicken producer profit margins at their highest in a year.
U.S. consumption of chicken is expected to exceed 100 pounds per person this year for the first time ever, data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows.


 
I went to our chain supermarket yesterday (Safeway) to pick up some burger for my dinner in camp this weekend. I cruised the meat department wanting just the run of the mill 80% /20% floor scrapings and that shit was $8.95 lb.! No thankyou. WTF ! went to fill the Jeep before heading to camp and 87 gas was 6.49 gallon and that's the cheapest place in a 25 mile radius. I think I may have retired a little to soon.
 
I went to our chain supermarket yesterday (Safeway) to pick up some burger for my dinner in camp this weekend. I cruised the meat department wanting just the run of the mill 80% /20% floor scrapings and that shit was $8.95 lb.! No thankyou. WTF ! went to fill the Jeep before heading to camp and 87 gas was 6.49 gallon and that's the cheapest place in a 25 mile radius. I think I may have retired a little to soon.
I have had some folks (here and out around town) ask me what I thought the inflation rate was. For the past year I have replied "10%" without batting an eye.
Then I hear the "regional quotes" that are always lower. Honestly it does not matter about the regions. Like you, it's the local grocery store and the local gas pump. What matters is what it cost you to live where you live and work.
If your "investments" are not making 10% annually then you are losing ground.
If you make 10% + then you have made wise choices for several years... Kudos to you.
 
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