Ingenuity Powder System

[Baron23]

Im an early stage VC in very advanced medical technology and software with some very large corporate partners. We have some amazing innovators in our portfolio but we rarely keep the CEOs, who are all highly technical and scientists. Most of our nightmares are self inflicted failures are due to poor management by founders who refuse to step aside and we no longer invest founders arent willing to do so if needed.

As it relates to IP - I do wish Paul would fill people in on whats going on - but thats up to him. I have the Hybrid system and will buy the powder drop when it's available - so it really doesnt matter what he does. I would do it differently but I also dont invent things, thats not my skill set, so my mind works different - not better or worse - just different. In his case if he's just waiting on a machine to be fixed still - not much he can do - other than tell people whats going on and offer the system as it stands with the ability to just buy the dropper without the electronics and motor later. That being said, have no idea what his production is like or if this is even feasible or even worth it. If this system works as intended - he will sell a lot of them regardless of whats going on.

So it sounds like your experience with tech start up founders is identical to mine.

In his case if he's just waiting on a machine to be fixed still - not much he can do

Well, I'm not sure I agree. Prob too late in the game to do anything, but one of the tenets of product development PM is risk identification and mitigation plans. In the case of this one man company and a small project, that would in large part be identifying manf risks (like your machine is broken) and setting up alternate parts sources for a relatively simple manf. machining job.

As it relates to IP - I do wish Paul would fill people in on whats going on - but thats up to him.

Yes, it certainly is up to him but it is also certainly a valid point of criticism.

Cheers

 

[MQXL308]

Thread probably gonna end up locked again

I hope not but won't be shocked if it does..

 

[Greg0326]

Anyone called IP lately to see how far the cans been kicked this time?

 

[nalye]

According to a Mr. Mercury it's been kicked all over the place.
In all seriousness: The massive lack of conversation is still something that I've seldomly seen before. I'll see if I can drop him an email and if he responds I'll circle it back here.

 

[Sebrock]

Anyone called IP lately to see how far the cans been kicked this time?

I emailed him. Wrote back right away. Says he's trying for end of November.

 

[biggershooter]

I don't see any need to email. Instead, one can use this formula:

deadline = datetime.now().date() + timedelta(days=40) + timedelta(days=random.randint(-15, 15))

Roughly speaking. For real fun, do a montecarlo simulation.

 

[Sebrock]

I don't see any need to email. Instead, one can use this formula:

deadline = datetime.now().date() + timedelta(days=40) + timedelta(days=random.randint(-15, 15))

Roughly speaking. For real fun, do a montecarlo simulation.

Will dust off @Risk and give it a try

 

[Baron23]

“Trying for Nov”!? Wow….im going w some time in 2026.

So, how does a 3 wk delay waiting for tech to show and fix your machine turn into “trying for sometime in Nov”.

 

[secondofangle2]

This is boiling down to nothing short of gross incompetence (as others have stated) regarding project management and oversight

 

[Bevo]

I emailed him. Wrote back right away. Says he's trying for end of November.

What a joke. Glad I got in on that preorder 3 years ago.

 

[MQXL308]

Now that I have the zero press squared away. I can shift back to keeping an eye open for the dropper to hit the market.
I already have the electronics and such.

 

[nalye]

What a joke. Glad I got in on that preorder 3 years ago.

I was dead set on the thought that it was definitely just in 2023 and thus only 2 years ago but you're totally right - we are nearing the 3 year mark and the "It's finally here" by F Class Gavin was on July 3rd 2024. Dang...
Direct quote from his reply:

It will be around the end of November for your order number

Emphasis is mine.

 

[secondofangle2]

September and October just skipped over like they aren’t even months

Website unupdated like it’s not even there

People left in silence like there’s not even sound

 

[biggershooter]

People left in silence like there’s not even sound

In space, no one can hear you scream.

 

[Jingoist]

September and October just skipped over like they aren’t even months

Website unupdated like it’s not even there

People left in silence like there’s not even sound

Inelastic demand is a cruel mistress.

Everyone bitching will still open up their wallets...next year....and he knows it.

 

[Tiller]

I was holding out for one of these…went with the printed trickler and now I will probably pass on this one if my number ever comes up.

 

[LR1845]

I said this before, but if Adam McDonald was smart he would put the V3 back into production.

 

[John Glidewell]

I said this before, but if Adam McDonald was smart he would put the V3 back into production.

and / or he would have worked with us on the improvements for the V4.

 

[LR1845]

and / or he would have worked with us on the improvements for the V4.

I know you like and have your V4 tuned but I'm telling you it is no where near the V3 with the IP electronics...EVERYTHING with the V3/IP set up is easier and faster from set up to tear down.

 

[Schw15]

Honestly I follow this to see the delays stack up. I gave up on it the first year when he told me end of summer first part of fall on the phone. Then it delayed late fall but once he said end of winter I bought a v4 instead. I dont know how a product that never made it to market has such a cult following. I think if everyone would stop supporting it maybe he would realize because it is horrible I can honestly say I've never seen anything like this

 

[John Glidewell]

I know you like and have your V4 tuned but I'm telling you it is no where near the V3 with the IP electronics...EVERYTHING with the V3/IP set up is easier and faster from set up to tear down.

I am sure that is true. However, many folks cannot afford to just dump the V4 and put more $$ into another system. I have mine running well with aftermarket stuff I developed with MK machining. 8-10 seconds is as fast as I can make it go without overthrowing but that works with my process flow. I am kicking myself for selling my V3.

 

[Jingoist]

Honestly I follow this to see the delays stack up. I gave up on it the first year when he told me end of summer first part of fall on the phone. Then it delayed late fall but once he said end of winter I bought a v4 instead. I dont know how a product that never made it to market has such a cult following. I think if everyone would stop supporting it maybe he would realize because it is horrible I can honestly say I've never seen anything like this

It's because the IP trickler is absolute money; so the following will gladly pay $600+ for the bulk dropper and the 1980s 10-key, I guess.

I'm sure it will be the best thing out there, so there's that, also.

 

[Schw15]

It's because the IP trickler is absolute money; so the following will gladly pay $600+ for the bulk dropper and the 1980s 10-key, I guess.

I'm sure it will be the best thing out there, so there's that, also.

There is no proof it is the best thing out there though. If this was hornady people would be up in arms over it. What happens if something breaks is the wait going to be like this for replacement parts....... ive heard good things about the trickler but there is the printed precision now that works

 

[biggershooter]

I dont know how a product that never made it to market has such a cult following.

I think it's several things coming together.

• Humans, and men particularly, are hardwired to seek out scarce resources. This is scarce. When/if it finally 'drops', loyal customers/watchers will feel like insiders, part of an exclusive club, rewarded for their loyalty. The anticipation of this stimulates the dopamine system, and especially when the drop is unpredictable, as this one is.
• Sunk cost fallacy. People have an emotional/ego investment in this and are loth, as is human nature, to let that go and so allow that to affect their future decisions.
• The extensive pretty machining is attractive. Just like blue- and red-coloured hose ends look good under the hood of a muscle car. Adds zero functional value, but significant perceived value. All the bits-and-bobs (symptom of poor design) look good.
• So then we get inverse elasticity. It's a Gucci product (see above) and the value perception is high.
• "It's almost here!" Like Charlie Brown, we want to believe that this time the football will not be snatched away, as trustworthy people project that trust onto others. Also stimulates the gambling behavior of "this pull of the lever will win!"
• The demos look good. The concept - dropping instead of a rotating drum - is excellent. So it might work really well across many powders. Other things are good enough, but this appears to be better.

I don't think this is a deliberate strategy, I think it's a competency issue. But it's nonetheless effective.

There are emerging alternatives.

 

[oldrifleman]

Reality is that most who want this have probably already bought the available electronics and trickler and are using either a V3 or a manual dropper. We are just waiting for the bulk dropper. Right now I like the available system and it will be better.

 

[secondofangle2]

If there are simple logistical problems why wouldn’t you just communicate them?

Should I suspect that more fundamental problems with the apparatus were discovered after more beta testers got their hands on it?

Like if you don’t keep the hopper at a certain level the mass of what is dropped changes and needs recalibrated or something? Bridging or other problems with certain powders?

 

[Jingoist]

If there are simple logistical problems why wouldn’t you just communicate them?

Should I suspect that more fundamental problems with the apparatus were discovered after more beta testers got their hands on it?

Like if you don’t keep the hopper at a certain level the mass of what is dropped changes and needs recalibrated or something? Bridging or other problems with certain powders?

Remember that swanky, round acrylic shield we were going to get, along with the glass hopper? Now look at "us."

It's pretty clear to me (not the shield/hopper that are now 3D printed in the garage) that he's nearly finished with his online machinist course and is now just waiting for the machines he broke to be repaired, so he can figure it out as he goes along; he brought everything in-house and is learning along the way to cut out those who specialize in manufacturing and go it alone to maximize profits here. I get it.

But you are right, he was keeping the community abreast for a year and a half, but decided radio silence is the best path forward, since most will still be here waiting when he figures it out.

I don't think it's anything to do with form or function whatsoever. The hopper scenario you raised doesn't seem likely, as it's merely a mathematical formula based on flow rate as to how long you leave the door open to get the drop semi close.

I think it's purely a function of figuring out how to make the parts himself.

 

[DairyDictator]

Remember that swanky, round acrylic shield we were going to get, along with the glass hopper? Now look at "us."

It's pretty clear to me (not the shield/hopper that are now 3D printed in the garage) that he's nearly finished with his online machinist course and is now just waiting for the machines he broke to be repaired, so he can figure it out as he goes along; he brought everything in-house and is learning along the way to cut out those who specialize in manufacturing and go it alone to maximize profits here. I get it.

But you are right, he was keeping the community abreast for a year and a half, but decided radio silence is the best path forward, since most will still be here waiting when he figures it out.

I don't think it's anything to do with form or function whatsoever. The hopper scenario you raised doesn't seem likely, as it's merely a mathematical formula based on flow rate as to how long you leave the door open to get the drop semi close.

I think it's purely a function of figuring out how to make the parts himself.

To be fair, it might not necessarily be a money thing. Having parts manufactured for you can suck ass. Lot of reputable companies large enough to be able to afford an inspection dept. with serious machines aren't interested in your 100pc order every 6 months and others that aren't great in the QC dept. and sweat at holding standard tolerances will ship you shit product.

 

[Evintos]

If there are simple logistical problems why wouldn’t you just communicate them?

Should I suspect that more fundamental problems with the apparatus were discovered after more beta testers got their hands on it?

Like if you don’t keep the hopper at a certain level the mass of what is dropped changes and needs recalibrated or something? Bridging or other problems with certain powders?

That would also be simple enough to communicate. Doesn't even have to be a specific about what the issue is.

"Our beta testers discovered some flaws with the design that does not meet our standards and would not meet your standards as a reloader who demands the very best. We're opting to delay the release until these issues are remedied."

 

[Jingoist]

Exhibit A: He's fascinated with the new toys and is spinning billet around for Facebook to show us what he's learned.

That was a year ago. Radio silence ever since.

 

[Tokay444]

Maybe he crashed the shit out of it.

 

[DairyDictator]

Machines don't take this long to fix and parts don't take this long to prove out and make a few hundred. I'm betting he found some problems that required some redesigning.

 

[Tokay444]

Machines don't take this long to fix and parts don't take this long to prove out and make a few hundred. I'm betting he found some problems that required some redesigning.

They do if you can’t afford to fix them.

 

[secondofangle2]

Yeah, the "differential diagnosis" right now is:

Design problems, rejiggering design - especially since he redesigned the attachment apparatus that sits the dropper higher off the scale. This increases "flight times" where there is powder in the air that the scale can't measure. Increases error. Supertrickler guys have this down, despite their other failings. Other hidden problems are included under "design problems" and beta testing/errors.

Parts and materials availability, from China or other

Time constraints/other job +/- combined with outsourcing reluctance

Machining and other equipment learning curves (I know a major 3d printer guy who said "Paul has unrealistic expectations" and an unwillingness to outsource or pay the costs of outside expertise - from direct contact

Machine failures/repairs?

3d Printing problems (see above - this is not something you can scale up without prior expertise especially if you're penny pinching and think [wrongly] that it's easy)

Parts compatibility in house or outsourced

Machine failures/repairs

Scaling up problems

Failed outsourcing/contracts

Management failures/stubbornness/unwillingness to delegate/expand/hire managers/employees

fatigue/burnout

Engineer mindset that leads to manifold irrational decisions regarding above and others.

What am I missing in my differential diagnosis?

 

[Huskydriver]

Telling you.... Thesis struck again

 

[Cascade Hemi]

Maybe homeboy found something more profitable to make than droppers?

 

[nalye]

Ingenuity Precision Reverse Muzzle Brake - it hurts when IP!

 

[secondofangle2]

^?