There will be no draw. We cannot afford to lose. A draw in this case is tantamount to defeat for us.
It's already over if the fight is limited to Ukraine. Unless NATO is willing to commit warm bodies to the trenches, the Ukrainian forces are not going to last much longer. They just don't have the manpower to continue fighting given how fast they're losing people. 12 mobilizations so far for Ukraine? This is BEFORE Russia launches their offensive any day now (still shaping the battlefield?, waiting on the anniversary date?).
Sending Ukraine 3 different types of tanks with minimal training in usage and repair, adding to the logistical burden... we're kinda scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms of support now. Almost setting them up for failure in a way.
Some might say looking at our history since WW2, we've lost more conflicts overall than we've "won", even with vastly superior firepower and logistics.
We CAN afford to lose this conflict. That's why we used Ukraine in a proxy war. If this sh*t doesn't work out, we walk away like we often do. Maybe we lose some reputation and the Chinese can laugh at us, but existentially speaking... the USA is better off losing 20-50% of Ukraine to Russia and ending this than to risk a hot war with a nuclear power for which this conflict IS existential.
If Russia took over Canada and was doing the same thing to us, we would look at this very differently. And it would be more personal.
Reminder that we are fighting a war in Russia's backyard. Logistically speaking, this is a ground war and close to them. Their advantage.
Yes, we have prepositioned equipment, but we're literally fighting a war 1/2 way around the world where we have to transport everything. Our allies in the EU... are weak and with the exception of France will not offer much in a war with Russia. Turkiye is an exception, but I could see them either siding with Russia or staying out of it.
Once fully engaged with Russia in a land based conflict next to Russia, it would be a great time for China to blockade Taiwan (not invade)... in early April is my guess. But not unless we were fully engaged and shooting back and forth.
Timing really puts us in a hard spot as we could be facing 2 near peers in conflict simultaneously on the other side of the planet. Logistically, I do not believe we have the people or ability to do that effectively. Though if China does blockade Taiwan I see us sending ships anyway. Whether we actually trade missiles and such is a different story.
Douglas Macgregor stated that the US is a superpower based on naval and aerospace, not land based war. Fighting Russia in their strength and our weaker facet would not be smart.
IF we must engage with Russia, I hope the US armed forces plan to do it in a manner that leverages our Navy and Air Force (maritime and aerospace), and stays far far away from Russian artillery, front line trench warfare. The Ukrainians are literally feeding a meatgrinder right now.
Do not want anything to do with that for American troops.